Hollow Knight Mafia [game over]

[fireisredsir]

like i was thinking their options were, no kill vs trade a kill on peta for a clear on me

i guess you meant the option where they kill me which also kills you. they could do that i guess but i wasn't really considering it as a possibility

[Firebringer]

right, they could have no killed, killed us both but instead they chose a clear on and kill peta.

which means they don't find the combination of us 2 threatening.

[fireisredsir]

that's true but they also haven't wanted to kill you for whatever reason for the last few nights either

it doesn't really make sense but it makes roughly equally not sense to me as previous nights

anyway yea i didn't mean to insult you at all, thought the post was just talking about me. sorry to have made you upset

[Klick]

People get really silly when in auto or near-auto situations and forget how reads work
I'm curious about the stats on actual town winrate in these situations

[Klick]

Yeah well. We're sort of running out of options at the moment

Like this doesn't mean you just start ignoring the evidence for Firebringer!town
You just have to actually put in the hard work and find out who doesn't have those things that make them very likely town, or otherwise read deeply into the Firebringer/TSQ interactions and find out how they come from scum

Because if Firebringer is scum, he WAS partners with TSQ, so you need to come to terms with a world where those interactions happened between partners

Firebringer is town btw

[Morning Tweet]

Klick it not me so if it not u and it not FB this is looking very very bad

[Morning Tweet]

@MT please link your last significantly developed town game you replaced into and your last scum game you replaced into.

HMMHMHMMMMM

As I recall, I saw dat and considered responing but couldn't be fucked plus I was starting to get confirm biased especially when Klick made the one "I kinda want to let Dan catch up but I kinda think he's scum" post -- like I was really goin hard on LycanDan. Not so much the other scum.

I was suspecting Firebringer for a while but like his attempts to solve on the previous page are convincing -- And now Klick's mentioning a TSQ-Fire interaction as well

I skimmed the first page of TSQ's ISO (WTF that's a lot of posts) -- he definitely had murderous intent for Fire consisntently yeah

Btw @Black, nothing goes on in the QT. Klick and Cakez are more MIA than I am.

Breh (Fire pointed this out)

You'd think an all-scum PT would like (IE Klick!scum), embellish their state hood activtity a little? Weirdly honest tactic to just not use it and then say you're not using it

[Morning Tweet]

Then again, hoods kinda suck. I didn't consider that.

[Morning Tweet]

I am dying to hear Klick's perspective on who he thinks it has to be at this point. But don't spoil who before you're ready

[Morning Tweet]

UNVOTE:

[Klick]

Klick it not me so if it not u and it not FB this is looking very very bad

I agree! Which is why I'm pushing back
I'll have time tonight to have another go at sorting this

[Klick]

Your interactions today don't FEEL like scum
But last time I remember being engaged in solving this game I felt that way about everyone alive
So I just need to figure out where I've gone wrong

[Datisi]

VOTE COUNT 6.03

WITH 7 VOTES IN PLAY, IT TAKES 4 TO MAKE A DECISION. DAY 6 ENDS IN (expired on 2023-03-06 15:45:00).

execution

KLICK [1]:

furtiveglance

MORNING TWEET [1]:

Gimli

NOT VOTING [5]:

Aristeia, fireisredsir, Klick, Firebringer, Morning Tweet

mod notes

All vote counters have been borked by the newest update, so please let me know if there are mistakes in the VC.
This is a mod note.

[Gimli]

I'm re-reading some parts of the game, giving special detail to the interactions between firebringer and TSQ. I skimmed through FB's ISO and his votes, defenses and pushes, and that led me nowhere. what can be revealing of his alignment IMO is the sheer amount of back and forths between him and shea.

IDK if reading through is gonna help anyone else but here we go:

Spoiler: miscelaneous d1 stuff

Okay Black,
I will answer.

Yes, I scumread Dan.
Is it strong enough to make some sort of case for you? No not really.

I stated my read on dan actually in the reads list YOU ASKED FROM ME. literally 24 hours ago.
I also put them in my pile when we did that exercise for POE someone to eliminate and I favored dan when i couldn't get shea/cakez to finally pick someone.

So yes, I scumread Dan.

I don't know why you don't remember this position. But this is big game. I forgive u for forgetting and not doing a bit of research.

the context for this was FB's d1 minigame where each player of his towncore picked a name from the POE until there's one left and that's the one that's we were supposed to eliminate.

we ended up in the following spot: the remaining POE'd down were actiondan and mistyx, and the only people who didn't play firebringer's game were TSQ and sircakez. we had every opportunity of ending up in a scenario were the 'consensus POE' was someone left out after scum saved AD.

I think FB's idea is a towny looking one and I wonder if his scum range is large enough that he gets that kind of thread control and leadership status on d1. OTOH I can see the scum motivation for this, as the painted scenario was obviously one that would end up having us flip town (since FB put two scums in the towncore and only one scum (apparently?) in the POE).

what I dislike from this post to black is how jumped up and annoyed FB seems to have gotten with the questioning, as if scumreading AD or not had importance to FB's alignment.

I GOT SHEA TO SCUM READ ME!!!!!!

proud of myself
wish i could say it was through actually attempting to get shea to scumread me.
but a happy accidents is still a good thing.

Go me.

that feels unpaired with shea.

I have been gifted with such prescience as to clearly foresee my own miselim. And in this quite probable reality the scum are winning. Do you want to know why?

I just said if ur town that doesn't mean we are losing.
But go on and say ur town more.
This will be a very convincing argument.

another good interaction. if FB is scum he knows how to have great interactions with his team mates that don't look that way.

Okay well answer me when ur not playing mafia. I can wait.

I've been watching a lot of nature documentaries.

that isn't an anime.

this is whatever but there's an insistence to keeping the interaction going between shea and FB, which I guess can be wolves maintaining thread control. that part of thread control is going to be important on EOD1, when both firebringer and shea are keeping AD's wagon tight and getting him flipped.

considering how shea was talking to and about AD, it's clear to me that wolves were bussing here. this is the VC:

VOTE COUNT 1.21

WITH 17 VOTES IN PLAY, IT TAKES 9 TO MAKE A DECISION. DAY 1 ENDS IN (expired on 2023-02-17 17:05:00).

execution

ACTIONDAN [7]:

Cat Scratch Fever, Aristeia, Morning Tweet, petapan, redFF, Firebringer, fireisredsir

REDFF [3]:

Mistyx, Alisae, furtiveglance

SIRCAKEZ [2]:

Asri Teroka, Gimli

PETAPAN [2]:

ActionDan, Black

BLACK [1]:

Klick

NOT VOTING [2]:

SirCakez, Thestatusquo

mod notes

All vote counters have been borked by the newest update, so please let me know if there are mistakes in the VC.
This is a mod note.

so: Cat Scratch Fever, Aristeia, Morning Tweet, petapan, redFF, Firebringer, fireisredsir.

if MT is scum this vote isn't an informed one, and everyone else is a dead town or it's firebringer or fireR. I think it makes sense, considering how AD is playing, and how shea is playing to benefit the maximum amount possible from the flip, that there was scum already on this wagon when shea and FB were doing that.

VOTE: ActionDan

I reiterate that you should claim.

VOTE: ActionDan

Cya tomorrow

:/ ok.

oh he was already voting him. sneaky pupper.

now that feels aligned.

kind of surprised u didn't notice.

the VC was literally right above u

Are you serious right now

you're a rolestopped but you forgot you were gated until prompted? Bullllllllshit. Yes I am dead serious right now.

i believe the rolestopper claim

I do not believe this for a second.

I think im better at telling an actual claim from a fake claim than u Shea.

I think im better at telling an actual claim from a fake claim than u Shea.

I dont care

and that's the story of how Shea obliterated firebringer with just 3 simple words.

there's a lot of this organic back and forth between shea and FB, almost talking past AD and doing their own thing with posturing (not saying FB is a wolf posturing but posturing nonetheless) around the claim and the AD wagon.

I don't think I'm going anywhere with this now because everything FB posts is something that looks towny and reasonable but I can also see him being a wolf and doing it all, like it's not alignment indicative enough for me to parse through.

I have some things to do and I'm back later to check some d2 stuff.

@klick: what parts of shea/FB interacting with each other you think are extremely unlikely to be svs?

[Gimli]

And I'm wondering whether it's just better to risk losing 'auto' to vote Firebringer out now, to avoid him having a 1-shot Day Vig ability or something else that can get him a sneaky win

btw from cloth's wiki page:

She later appears to help the Knight during an ambush of Mantis Traitors near the White Lady's refuge, and they fight together against the Traitor Lord. However, the Traitor Lord mortally wounds her at the end of the fight, she then chooses to deal the final blow herself before dying.

[Gimli]

sircakez seems to have the only other ungated ability, btw.

I'm checking everyone's roles now to see if that's true.

[Gimli]

mistyx was an ungated fruit vendor pretty much.
redFF had an ungated ability to add people to a hood.

everyone else had limited uses AFAICT

[Gimli]

I was skimming through klick's ISO yesterday and maintain my opinion that he is very likely town in this game.

there's a post where klick is talking about both scum in the hood have high scum equity and I think that's too strong and blatant to be a bus. I also really like klick's gameday, the way they're interacting with the POE (talking through with MT, townreading FB) feels like a townie shortening their options rather than scum enlarging their options.

[Gimli]

I'm reading through d2 now and a thought that crossed my mind is that, the way firebringer talks about himself and the way he plays mafia, and considering the full setup that we're looking at, then I think if he isn't the last mafia and the last mafia knows him, then the last mafia probably doesn't think he is ungated cause it doesn't mesh well with the rest of the roles.

either way - and considering the possibility of last mafia having extra KP and other mechanical situations that we can't foresee - I'm tossing out the idea that we probably have auto by trusting firebringer's word for it. 'auto' is for cop 9er and normal games, this is role madness and we don't know what scum has.

[Gimli]

scum had:

actiondan: 3x jailkeeper in hood
sircakez: non killing NAs don't affect him. can't do it subsequently but has unlimited uses. in hood
TSQ: 4x rolecop
(4th member)

town has:

CSF: vanillaizer (activates when dead)
asri: 2x self watcher (can target who watched him to become lovers and share a pt)
mistyx: fruit
ali: 2x make someone strongman for the night
redff: neighborizer with 1x vigilante chosen by the neighbours
peta: double voter and can stop one player to be voted out.
black: 2x learns a bunch of actions related to a dead player.

unflipped townies
ari: tracker. can't track if three dead scum.
furtive: 1 shot jailkeeper (forgot if he claimed something else)

unflipped others
MT: 4 shot babysitter
gimli: 2 shot gun giver
fireisr: 1 shot informed if a player is in a hood
klick: messenger in a filthy ass hood
firebringer: hider

from a setup perspective, it seems to me that town has too much killing power (hood kill, then at least one between me and MT) while scum hasn't had a single flipped KP. that on top of asri who was potentially lovers, and sircakez who couldn't use his ability to protect himself, the odds are that scum had extra KP as well. in that sense I think both my role and MT's role would fit for scum, and especially if MT is a traitor I think the babysitter is a really fun role for the traitor trying to figure out wtf to do. of course I can be mafia who townsided scum's only KP to deepwolf the game.

I think klick as messenger in the hood makes a lot of sense if he is the townie in a scum hood, it just interacts well as scum is going to influence a player who has a platform to speak to the town. I also don't think the way klick showed up late d2 to talk about sircakez' claim as very likely to be scum theatre. I think the way he voted first to then talk about the claim is organic and likely to be just cakez fakeclaiming to klick in their hood before ari's result.

I was already leaning strongly towards MT, but as the day progresses and I put the jigsaw puzzles in order I think firebringer is much more likely to be scum than Klick is, both from a playing and from a setup perspective. his claim doesn't mesh well with the rest of the game, has some functions that makes me feel you either give a hider or a babysitter but not both to town in this setup, + it being ungated when the other ungated roles are fruit and neighbour.

[Aristeia]

Spoiler: Tweetie are you this?

[fireisredsir]

alright we can yeet the tweet i guess

[Firebringer]

we dont need to go fast at all

[fireisredsir]

agree i think going fast has been a detriment so far

[Gimli]

I'll share my flavour for completeness sake: I'm nailsmith, a game's merchant. he strengthens the main character's nail.

I should probably play hollow knight at some point, it looks interesting