Open 874 - Donner Party - Postgame

[Flea The Magician]

Vig, bianco is the CW to me so if green Im your shot. See you overnight.

(Not that i was correct about gimlis positioning or anything, and yes I believe its posturing and a facade)

[Gimli]

lol ceph

I think both flea and bianco are writing ????? and am fine flipping either

[Flea The Magician]

I mean were both done. Unless the vig wants to hero shot.

If either one of us is green, the other is shot. Unless hero shooting vig.

Youve broken my patience for this game with your posturing believing you can read me, when you clearly cannot.

So, tell me, what do you gain from my flip? What information, where do you look for who?

[Flea The Magician]

I flip green:
Youre either bad town tunneled or scum townleading. A wagon should form on you at some point by competent down, i suspect with Sail taking the point. They know their stuff and are actually town and capable.
Your red flip incriminates Ceph and StD who are lambs to your Mary. Hopefully they will have both picked up at that point if theyre town as while StDs D1 tends to be better, Cephs is awful. StD doing little here is a concern .

I flip red you're clear. What associatives do you have?

[Gimli]

lambs to my Mary

[Gimli]

I tend to respond better to reason

sorry if you're town?

[NorwegianboyEE]

If Flea is town (which is my current assumption) then i think it makes Gimli more likely town than scum. Or SK.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Their push in later pages here seems genuine to me.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I'm fine flipping Bianco still. A Vanilla Town claim doesn't mean much in an open setup because we already know which roles are available.

[Gimli]

I can see flea being town given faer's emotion

I think also the way biancospino interacted with flea could make sense from a TMI perspective. I'm expecting bianco to flip mafia here.

it's possible that, if bianco flips mafia, their partner is already running a candidacy for deepwolf. d1 is gonna be hard to read and just flipping the CW might not be a great thing.

so lots of things for the cannibal to think about.

[Flea The Magician]

I tend to respond better to reason

sorry if you're town?

Ive been nothing less than reasonable with you.
My vote stays.

[Flea The Magician]

Also emotion isnt a tell on anyone, and certainly not for me.

[Flea The Magician]

Not at the surface level at least for most, at all on me.

[Gimli]

I just implore you to not just speedchain a Flea lim tomorrow. It's possible I'm wrong and all, so if you find fae scummy whatever, but my gut says town quite strongly.

I also think there is a wolf in {Gimli, Cephrir, Dragon}, whatever.
VOTE: Cephrir

I expect scum!bianco to put their partner here and fall for the rule of three

also I think the defense of flea is so extreme that it feels like scum TMIing and also tying themselves up with flea so that when bianco flips red we do actually speedlim flea.

I've re-read dragoneater and I can see why some people suspect the slot. it made some fine looking posts and I've agreed with many of their stances, though.

if cephrir is bianco's partner, it has definitely played it in a way to set himself up for lategame and decided to bus. I think cephrir's case against bianco is very solid and made me feel at home with being on this wagon instead of pushing flea.

otoh I think e.g. furtive is lockclear of being bianco's partner. norwee as well doesn't feel like they're bussing. FBer and sail as well, pending a re-read.

so maybe if bianco is mafia the partner is in (cephrir, dragoneater, flea?, STD?).

anyway I've been accused of hijacking the game and leading town when I'm horrible at mafia, so just to make sure we're clear from this misconception: I am horrible at mafia and I do not intend on leading town. I'm simply posting my thoughts and talking to people and saying who I feel good about voting.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Nothing wrong with leading the town even if your reads aren't the best.

[Flea The Magician]

And yet... anyone wagoned twice on a day needs to be resolved. At this point I need to be resolved otherwise I'm a question mark until endgame. Scum will now not NK me because of this.

Because of Gimli's bad push.

Leading town requires someone with confidence in their play, Gimli lacks confidence and has already undermined their position by admitting that he's "horrible at mafia". I also don't think bianco sets up the kind of hardball play Gimli is suggesting here.

That said looking over ISO, something I'm seeing in bianco's posts.
Mirroring/language shift.

She started out very informal, then as the day has progressed he's mirroring my more pointed style throughout. It's not fully there, but it is noticeable. Slips back again when talking about me in a scum context, and then immediately returns when not. And this continues. Whenever talking about eliminating me, back to casual. Talking about me as town, is pointed.

Weaponised mirroring, could be intentional, could not be. I can't decipher that just yet with 35 posts.
Mirroring is a behaviour used in social groups to establish a connection and deepen bonds.
I've done this before, rare cases and usually as an escape option. Just start subtly mirroring a widely townread person - and it has worked.
I've seen others use it as pocketing and sometimes to create false associatives.

Make of it what you will. Without being able to decode the information behind it, this is fluff.

[Gimli]

this is already more scumhunting than flea did in one month of HMS mutiny as scum so fae is probably town.

I think bianco's partner is in (STD, ceph, dragoneater)

ceph would have to be bussing the ever living fuck out of his partner which, why not? but somehow I think that's not too likely

STD has softdefended bianco throughout d1, suspecting people that suspect him without townreading him. also called out ceph for putting bianco in the spotlight with the 'I bet you forgot bianco existed' vote (which I think was a nice vote and tone and I had forgotten bianco existed as well).

DE is someone I'm not scumreading and have no idea if associatives work but bianco mentioned him as a potential scum and I think that's interesting as I think bianco would try to distance themselves from a partner while going down.

[furtiveglance]

I'll be happy with a hammer soon, feeling good about this

[Detective Penguin]

I don't really, but it seems this is where we're going today so may as well move on.

VOTE: bianco

[Detective Penguin]

Vig, bianco is the CW to me so if green Im your shot. See you overnight.

(Not that i was correct about gimlis positioning or anything, and yes I believe its posturing and a facade)

bianco was also the counter wagon to cephypoo and those wagons actually competed rather than vanished

[Detective Penguin]

looks like its not captured in the mod vcs but the bianco wagon also vanished onto me

[Detective Penguin]

ceph would have to be bussing the ever living fuck out of his partner which, why not? but somehow I think that's not too likely

If this is your barometer, you should be throwing furtive in the pool as well. His dance around bianco is actually worse than cephypoo's.

[furtiveglance]

Man don't dance

I clearly had a scumread on bianco at all times.

[NorwegianboyEE]

That's a whole lot of finger pointing and pre-flip association in this page. So this better hit scum.

[Detective Penguin]

Man don't dance

I clearly had a scumread on bianco at all times.

Sure...and found reasons not to be on Bianco's wagon. That's a dance.

Anyway, my point was that Gimli's logic for cephypoo also applies to you.