Open 876 - Fire and Ice - Postgame

[furtiveglance]

Nothing like central park in spring

VOTE: IceDragon70

Look at this guy's name!

[furtiveglance]

My favourite part of this setup is that I can just claim Doctor and the scumteams don't know whether to kill me or not

[furtiveglance]

i looked at two votes on dragon + hpe saying it wanted to vote and made a decision without reading why ppl were voting it.

its ok to not have an opinion

anyway

VOTE: python

Sus posting, unexplained vote at the end being the worst

VOTE: The Bulge

[furtiveglance]

I think it's the other way around, Oclax is voting Python for main-account hunting whereas Bulge is voting Python for perceived poor use of meta. And furtiveglance voted Bulge for the "unexplained" vote but I think Bulge had already given explanation in previous posts. So yes I do see it all as kind of linked, though probably not in a "furtive is scum voting Bulge because he's partnered with Python" way if that's what you think I'm saying. And I'm not sure what you mean by middle ring?

Are you on about 80? I don't think that really explains a vote on Python. As for 'seeing it as linked', in what way?

[furtiveglance]

I'll get a bit of momentum going here, sure. Drew tends to be a bit more jokey as scum I think, and I've seen a bit of that here.

VOTE: Doctor Drew

[furtiveglance]

Bulge is very likely scum, I'm gonna move back.

VOTE: The Bulge

[furtiveglance]

Bulge is very likely scum, I'm gonna move back.

I'm not getting these vibes...can you elaborate?

A quick look at his ISO and he seems kinda townie to me. He's definitely putting in some effort to solve

I agree that he's pushing, but I see an agenda.

[furtiveglance]

Bulge is very likely scum, I'm gonna move back.

VOTE: The Bulge

are you going to do anything this game or

Yellow M&M

You and Drew
Plus another 2

That's the game

[furtiveglance]

1.14

Votecount 1.14

usesPython (4): Oclaxian Empire, The Bulge, Aureal, Doctor Drew
Black (3): Kokichi Oma, HighPrincessErinys, biancospino
The Bulge (2): furtiveglance, usesPython
Malakittens (1): Enchant
Kokichi Oma (1): Black

Not Voting (2): Malakittens, osuka

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to secure an execution.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2023-04-20 18:48:28).

Python town. I can vote Black if need be

[furtiveglance]

Actually I think this is coming from a mech misunderstanding: Just because groupscum can do something that is -EV for town doesn't mean that it's +EV for that groupscum. Your argument that we're forcing a 1f1 with a town does get that it'd be +scum winrate in that scenario but it misses the point that it'd be -groupscum winrate (e.g. If we were Ice Mafia then it'd cause Town and Ice Mafia win rate to go down while Fire Mafia win rate goes up)

That's assuming the 1v1 actually results in both players getting limmed. Like I said it's too easy to get out of a gambit, so proposing the gambit on D1 should be a viable scum tactic to you

And I think it's something you as scum would propose here. We now know you think the town essentially loses if we lim green D1, so it makes perfect sense for you to propose a gambit based off of weak associatives to try and push a mislim here

And you'll just come up with some mech BS or find a way to wiggle your way out of your end of the gambit D2

This last line seems really uncharitable and disproportionate

VOTE: Black

[furtiveglance]

And yeah I realize this gives me fishy associatives with furtive if he is scum here but I feel like this information can be useful in determining his alignment

Scum don't know how to treat their non-buddies in multiball...lol

Black's worried I'm the other scumteam

[furtiveglance]

Wolves put in effort too, and not all of your effort has seemed town motivated

Effort doesn't keep you in the game

Oclax was being weirded out that we're so defeatist, I'm kinda at the point where I just wanna hammer myself and let town take the L

-A

Just vote your counterwagon

[furtiveglance]

As for all the furtive lore talk...I haven't had as much time for mafia lately, and going on a bad run might have lessened my interest as well.

But...I will have more time soon - I'm moving in the next few days.

[furtiveglance]

Wolves put in effort too, and not all of your effort has seemed town motivated

Effort doesn't keep you in the game

Oclax was being weirded out that we're so defeatist, I'm kinda at the point where I just wanna hammer myself and let town take the L

-A

Just vote your counterwagon

We did, can we get you to swap to Bulge so that Bianco gets on board with the wagon?

-A

I thought it was Black, maybe that vc was outdated.

I still think Black is very sus but I can move if need be.

What's the voting at?

[furtiveglance]

still think Black is very sus but I can move if need be.

Why? All I've seen is you say I'm sus because I said Python was going to try to get out of their gambit D2. Is there more?

The way you talked about me

[furtiveglance]

Pretty sure also that Black was defending you, furtive...

Missing the point

[furtiveglance]

VOTE: The Bulge

[furtiveglance]

Cmon yall

The choice is clear

[furtiveglance]

Cmon yall

The choice is clear

Thanks. That's helpful.

Yellow M&M

But fair

[furtiveglance]

This is the second time you've mentioned Yellow M&Ms, are you hungry furtive?

It's living rent-free in my head, in the same way that I'm apparently in yours

[furtiveglance]

I allow everyone to insult my play, because it's already common knowledge.

I accept it because I've been a bad boy and hence deserve it.

[furtiveglance]

Moving today so I'm a bit busy. I'm very unhappy with a usesPython vote because they've been pretty obvious town in my eyes. It's frustrating that I can't justifiably ask people to take my word for it because I haven't been posting a lot this game. The Bulge is more likely to be scum by far. Don't hammer before this evening, and I'll try and make a good case, and give more thoughts on the game.

[furtiveglance]

Let's not end it so soon, we have 4 days left.

[furtiveglance]

I think going back and explaining my worldview from its inception wouldn't really fit with the zeitgeist of right now in this game.

New things have happened. I don't mind the Malakittens wagon, but I prefer Black to it because Mala is pushing Black so it gives info on her as well. Bulge remains a favourite also. Drew is getting townier.

Town: usesPython, osuka
Townlean: Bianco, Drew, Oclax, Aureal, HPE
Scumlean: Enchant, Mala, Kokichi
Scum: Bulge, Black

[furtiveglance]

It's late and I'm tired and will have to think about these events more but this Mala/Black dynamic is fascinating.

And I'd love if furtive could finally totally explain his prior worldview and forget about whatever 'zeitgeist of right now' is stopping him.

I'll select 1 post from my biggest TR and SR then to give you a taste

Also we need to be limming the same groupscum today and tomorrow, can the people doing individual scumhunting start looking into what partners make sense with their scumreads and focus on solving for pairs?

-A

I know I've said I would stop talking mech, but this is just kind of egregious. Like you know full well that X/2 has a worse EV than X/1/1, you don't even have to run the number yourself, you can just check the EV project on the wiki (and in fact X/1/1 in this game is even more advantageous to town than montaneous since scum may waste their kill). Why the need to lie?

Actually I should probably just go over for the rest of the thread how town has won historically:

• Open 30: Fire Mafia lim d1/d2 into Ice Mafia lim d3/d4
  
• Open 256: Only town lims until it got to Doc/VT/VT vs 2 Ice Mafia vs 2 Fire Mafia where there were two no-kills in a row into a doc protect as well as no mislims
  
• Open 309: Major mod error involving Fire Mafia shooting Ice Mafia when both Fire Mafia were dead
  
• Open 498: Fire Mafia lim d1 into Ice Mafia kill n1, ended at a 1v1v1 with both scum cross-killing for some reason instead of just taking the draw
  
• Open 522: For some reason Fire Mafia got endgamed when it was Fire Mafia vs 3 Town? No idea why
  
• Open 546: Only town lims until it got to 3/2/2 with no doc, Fire maf lim into Ice mafia + Town getting shot brought it to 2/1/1 and then town got limmed and both scum crosskilled
  
• Open 616: Ice Mafia shot n1, Fire mafia limmed d3, then a crosskill in a 2/1/1

In other words, if we don't lim same scum then we're pretty much entirely relying on scum cross-killing, no-killing multiple times, or major mod error to win here

-A

Town POV + effort

This one is going to hit up Black's ISO in DN shortly because ok yeah a bit of an actual scumread is starting to form, but we'll see.

Okay first big red flag on Black (or black flag, it guesses) is that none of her DN solving effort really seems to be present. Maybe that's just a consequence of how DN's setup was, but... This setup is kinda similar in it's extra emphasis on day-time analysis to find scum since there's no investigatives, which even

DN

had one!

a how-to guide for confirmation bias

If actions and reads aren't random then the double target = no nightkill rule is even more likely to go into effect, go do the damn math if you're gonna hold these positions

-Nameless

my position is that your math is a waste of time and a distraction from actually doing anything useful, and also that no limming is a stupid idea

i am pretty sure voting to kill scum the only way we can is a +ev action, thx for checking tho

This stuff just seems really easy to post as scum and doesn't show any deeper thought

[furtiveglance]

Aureal, who are you scumreading?

[furtiveglance]

Anyway, I'm glad to see furtiveglance actually responded with something. Not much, but something. I think I actually see what he means about Python, though I didn't find his case on Bulge convincing at all. What do you think about Bulge's latest post 1180, furtive?

It reminds me of this post (NM was scum)

[furtiveglance]

Oh also furtive, you're not into the Drew/Bulge associative thing? I thought you were up until you said Drew was getting townier.

I've never seen an associative read be correct, and Python's read wasn't the reason I voted either player when I did

[furtiveglance]

VOTE: Black

E-1 again.

Looks a bit flaily now.

[furtiveglance]

I can't with this game

When I flip town, at least look at Aureal and bianco

Enchant, do your magic

This is a bit sus from bianco whatever Black flips

[furtiveglance]

This game has not been fun. Like at all

I unvoted to try and finally start solving the game and now I'm getting yeeted for it?

smh

That's not why I sus you at least

[furtiveglance]

I feel like no one is even saying why they sus me? It's literally just the same people jumping from wagon to wagon with barely any reason or logic. No shot all these wagon hoppers are town

Bit of a compromise wagon

My preference would be The Bulge but it isn't happening

I could potentially do Kokichi, but I wasn't around when they were E-1. I thought all the defeatist stuff looked scum.

I'll UNVOTE: for now.

[furtiveglance]

1.23

Votecount 1.23

Kokichi Oma (4): Oclaxian Empire, biancospino, Kokichi Oma, Aureal
Black (4): Enchant, usesPython, Doctor Drew, HighPrincessErinys
usesPython (2): The Bulge, Malakittens
Malakittens (1): osuka
The Bulge (1): furtiveglance

Not Voting (1): Black

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to secure an execution.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2023-04-20 18:48:28).

If I update this VC for now, it looks like this:

Black (5): usesPython, Doctor Drew, HighPrincessErinys, Kokichi, bianco
Kokichi Oma (2): Oclaxian Empire, Aureal
usesPython (2): The Bulge, Malakittens
Malakittens (1): osuka
The Bulge (1): furtiveglance

Not Voting (1): Black

I guess we could vote Kokichi together

[furtiveglance]

I can't with this game

When I flip town, at least look at Aureal and bianco

Enchant, do your magic

This is a bit sus from bianco whatever Black flips

Agreed.

I feel like no one is even saying why they sus me? It's literally just the same people jumping from wagon to wagon with barely any reason or logic. No shot all these wagon hoppers are town

Bit of a compromise wagon

My preference would be The Bulge but it isn't happening

I could potentially do Kokichi, but I wasn't around when they were E-1. I thought all the defeatist stuff looked scum.

I'll UNVOTE: for now.

This post, though. Why the defeatist attitude on your preferred wagon? It was looking reasonably viable until people went into flash wagon mode. Why not try actually making your case on Bulge? I asked you before and you quoted like two half-assed posts of his that obviously weren't supposed to be substantial and dismissed his towny effort for it or something. It wasn't convincing at all. You said you were moving last weekend and should be able to give more after, and I'm still waiting on that.

With The Bulge it's more the negative space of what he's not doing, like showing any real town mindset, drive or deeper thinking.

[furtiveglance]

VOTE: biancospino

Sure I'll join the revolution.

[furtiveglance]

VOTE: The Bulge

I'm hoping people will consider this with fresh eyes today.

[furtiveglance]

Cool, no matter what a scum dies if they claim doctor, meaning the doctor kill is always a kill that benefits scum. Not town.

Do you think Enchant is openly celebrating killing the Doc?

[furtiveglance]

Overreaction much^?

Jk I actually agree, and it reminds me of a trick Mala pulled as scum in Datisi's Cafe, also at the start of D2. It was the exact same move calling my entrance that day scummy.

VOTE: Malakittens

[furtiveglance]

Hello everyone.

I'd like to check in please.

10 of us remain; 4 scum.

I don't really see 4 scum full stop, let alone 4 without Mala. But let me give it a try.

[Black, Malakittens] + [The Bulge, Kokichi Oma]

How about it

[furtiveglance]

Maybe it is the beer talking, but my hammer finger is getting real itchy.

That's your red pm talking

Scumslip, mafia can have blue pm.


Black is sub zero mafia

Ice cold

[furtiveglance]

I thought Python was town but yessiree's posting today is very bad

I think Aureal and Black might be the other 2 town

This isn't looking good

[furtiveglance]

I thought Python was town but yessiree's posting today is very bad

I think Aureal and Black might be the other 2 town

This isn't looking good

Ok so it's furtive/Aureal

Other team is yessiree/x?

Great solve 10/10

[furtiveglance]

Black you're my top town

How does it feel

[furtiveglance]

Realistically the other one could be Aureal, Enchant or Oclaxian Empire

I'm sure The Bulge and yessiree are both scum

[furtiveglance]

VOTE: The Bulge

I want to be right on a scum this game.

If other scum want to help vote scum, feel free.

[furtiveglance]

I'm high on hopium that Mafia will crosskill

[furtiveglance]

VOTE: No eliminate

[furtiveglance]

Well done to the chilled guild.

[furtiveglance]

Yeah, this game was kind of a disaster. I'm glad it's over too. Probably the last one I'll mod for a while.

Modding was good

[furtiveglance]

This game was just, blegh

You were a good partner, happy to burn it down anytime