Open 876 - Fire and Ice - Postgame

[Doctor Drew]

Osuka, you didn't talk about the main connective tissue in all of this....me

[osuka]

you're not being voted?

[osuka]

or are you

[Doctor Drew]

you're not being voted?

Python wants me dead

[osuka]

no yeah i just checked the vc and you're not

i mean i don't know where to put you either to be honest. my first instinct is to say town but i want to dig more into the bulge associative thing people were talking about, since that doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me either

[osuka]

python has made zero sense all game and i have been in a state of abject confusion the entire time ive been here so im probably not the person anyone wants to ask what the fuck is going on

[Doctor Drew]

no yeah i just checked the vc and you're not

i mean i don't know where to put you either to be honest. my first instinct is to say town but i want to dig more into the bulge associative thing people were talking about, since that doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me either

python has made zero sense all game and i have been in a state of abject confusion the entire time ive been here so im probably not the person anyone wants to ask what the fuck is going on

So why not a Python counter wagon for now?

[osuka]

isnt python at e-2?

[Doctor Drew]

isnt python at e-2?

No, that would be bulge?

[osuka]

wouldn't that be both?

[Doctor Drew]

wouldn't that be both?

You think they are buddies?

[Aureal]

Python/Bulge scumteam? Oh my, even I'm not that paranoid.


I think.

[osuka]

what

[osuka]

are you saying something i said implied that?

[Oclaxian Empire]

both e-2 last i checked

[Alianna]

Both usesPython and The Bulge are at E-2. VC 1.18 is still accurate.

[usesPython]

grim: ig here's the question too: what about that makes u think drew/bulge are aligned w/ one another? bc i'm more so seeing it as drew trying to setup bulge to be in a worse spot post-flip

That one's kinda harder to explain mostly because it formed from a sense of how the thread was flowing around 247 and only later solidified into something more obvious. Essentially it came down to glossing over Drews 203/206/208/212 without having 268 for context while still deciding to comment on our posts in 253/255 which from our perspective the posts commented on seemed pretty normal?

It's only later that the associatives became more obvious in posts like 275/278 where they basically refused to give any sort of opinion on Drew, the only time they did this game is in 522

-A

---

Unironically why?

Skill issue.

Do you think I'm lying about my inability to see wtf you're going on about with this Drew/Bulge association?

I'm asking why you're not partner hunting, not why you don't see the Drew/Bulge team

-A

I disagree because there's a subtle difference that'll show up in behaviour: town are worried about being wrong but don't mind associatives as much, scum are worried about associatives but don't mind being wrong as much

Mm. I... suppose that could make sense. I think. Isn't... being wrong about someone... an associative? Or being right. Or not having an opinion. Or basically everything...

We can't really think of a better way to explain it without basically just repeating ourselves. For town, the scenario of being wrong about a tr is "oh well it looks bad but we caught scum so still good"; for scum, the scenario of being wrong about a tr is "shit the game's about to go into X/1/1 or X/2/0 and the pocket failed, not good"

-A

---

i mean that's pretty much spot on but also what the fuck? and where did that comment come from? you quoted a post that has nothing to do with that

Spoiler: Birds nest

Mala's kinda just existing this game

-A

furtive and icedragon and aureal as well

'scuse me, why are you lumping me in with the people who have both far fewer posts than me and far less content in them? Or is this just your handwaved way of talking about people who aren't currently getting voted? I mean, you didn't include bianco in there and I've definitely got more posts than her.

extremely peculiar thing to get defensive about

1) I try my best to contribute so it stings when people accuse me of not doing so.
2) I think that statement is pretty clearly wrong* and could be a way of throwing shade to justify a wagon at some point.
3) I have quite recently BEEN mislimmed, by some people in this game, on that sort of grounds. After I went to a great deal of effort to point out exactly how an actual mafia was using that sort of argument as a distraction to avoid having to produce content of their own.


* like post count is a totally objective measure and ours weren't even in the same ballpark,

but if we're going the "what can I remember about this person" route I think people like you and Oclax would also pretty well fit into the "uh... IDK, lemme go check the ISO" category

We're refuting the point that you and Oclax are in the "lemme ISO" category

-A

Spoiler: Cave

btw Drew are you phoneposting?

-A

I have been house sitting all week, so I only have my phone to post.

Is it that obvious? Lol

When it takes 7 minutes to write 4 sentences it's either phoneposting or AI lol

-A

or, you know, literally anything else including but not limited to: thinking about what you're gonna write, answering the door, getting distracted, or going to the bathroom and taking a shit. timeliness isn't ai

809 took 7 minutes in the editor to post from start to finish since he mentions getting sniped by Oclax, it

could

have been all of those things but if it wasn't phoneposting it'd have been more likely AI than not to take that much time to post something that short

-A

---

grim: so, radical idea osuka, vote python?

so i'm torn, right

on one hand, i think python has been nothing but noise all game. there was a lot of completely useless mech talk just to get to a "conclusion" that's so obvious anyone in the newbie queue could've come to in about 30 seconds, and i can't recall anything really interesting or obviously solvey coming out of that slot. just a lot of shit flinging in what seems to me a desperate attempt at staying alive after having dug themselves in a fucking hole. i'm not sure the initial push here was warranted though, because to their credit they DID advance the game state a fair bit, which i don't know if scum would be particularly willing to do.

on the other hand, black went from really scummy to actually sorta townposting, to getting hyper tilted in not that long of a timespan. that slot was pretty likely to be scum in my mind, then it wasn't, and now it's just a big question mark where a read used to be. i haven't got a really good idea what the fuck's going on there either. she's clearly tilted so i doubt we'll get anything out of that slot in the near future.

and then there's bulge - i have never been able to actually confidently read bulge and that's at least partly because there's so little content. whatever content is there is typically of good quality (regardless of alignment) and it generally makes sense, which makes it hard for me to read that slot because that's exactly what i do as either alignment. i have the distinct impression that much like myself, bulge is actively trying to burn his fucking meta to the goddamn ground every time he plays the game and he does that by making good logical and intuitive sense as either alignment. my hunch is that he's town here, but i can't confidently say that either.

i do think the python wagon came about in a fairly strange way, though. normally i'd be happy to just vote that slot out because 1. i think the slot flips red and 2. i will lose fewer brain cells every time i read the thread because i can't take any more of the mech talk, please make it stop it's too many numbers my brain can't take this i'm losing my mind. i swear to fuck if i have to read some shit about expected values again i will fucking combust

This is big and I kinda need you to work through this thought today because I know damn well you're not gonna go back to read d1 after it's over. First off, if you look at 773 onwards we could have very easily stayed on the Black counterwagon and stayed alive to keep 1v2ing Bulge/Drew; we specifically worked on getting a Bulge/Drew wagon instead because we think we're more likely to hit scum there. Does that seem like the play scum!Python does if we only care about surviving?

Second off, we really need you to look hard into

why

the Python wagon feels weird. From our perspective Drew/Bulge are there for survival purposes, Aureal's there because she's metaing me off of a game were Nameless was fronting, Black's there cause of OMGUS + misunderstanding mech, and Oclax is there cause of a scumread that feels like it formed due to a playstyle clash. How is a wagon that's

this

disorganized and meh so big if there aren't scum on it?

-A

[usesPython]

Also osuka and Oclax, we're very much willing to flashwagon Drew instead Bulge since we feel it's easier to see the associatives once either of them flip scum if we can count on your votes there

-A

[usesPython]

I disagree because there's a subtle difference that'll show up in behaviour: town are worried about being wrong but don't mind associatives as much, scum are worried about associatives but don't mind being wrong as much

Mm. I... suppose that could make sense. I think. Isn't... being wrong about someone... an associative? Or being right. Or not having an opinion. Or basically everything...

We can't really think of a better way to explain it without basically just repeating ourselves. For town, the scenario of being wrong about a tr is "oh well it looks bad but we caught scum so still good"; for scum, the scenario of being wrong about a tr is "shit the game's about to go into X/1/1 or X/2/0 and the pocket failed, not good"

-A

More specifically, this is the immediate reaction post-flip. The underlying worries between town and scum in multiball are still different though

-A

[usesPython]

Also since it looks like the limpool for today is pretty solidified we might as well reveal the tell we were talking about earlier

Having said that though, there's a very specific scumtell to multiball that can still be used D1. We'll reveal it towards the end of the dayphase instead of right now to see if anyone falls for it

-Nameless

@Python - ok...so how is that different than normal mafia? Everyone is looking for scum D1 and there's no real way to tell the motives yet. The people on my wagon could be townies pushing possible scum, scum pushing a possible townie, or scum pushing possible opposing scum. How do you tell the difference?

Yeah everyone's trying to lim mafia, but who are people trying not to lim

-A

Properly scumhunting d1 in multiball has nothing to do with mech. To state the real obvious, the only mech you need to know to scumhunt d1 in multiball is:

• Ice Mafia's
  preferred elims today are:
  Fire Mafia
  ,
  Town
  ,
  Ice Mafia
  
  
• Fire Mafia's
  preferred elims today are:
  Ice Mafia
  ,
  Town
  ,
  Fire Mafia
  
  
• Town's
  preferred elims today are:
  Mafia
  ,
  Town

To make it very explicit:

• For scum the only unacceptable lim is a lim on their own groupscum, if town gets limmed then they're still tied in first place for winrate in an X/2/2 scenario so they don't really mind a town mislim if preventing it means they have to stick their neck out for them.
  
• For town, a lim on any scum is acceptable and a lim on any town is unacceptable.

In otherwords, the strongest scumtells in multiball outside of awkward S/S interactions are:

• Refusing to townhunt (Weak tell, could come down to playstyle)
  
• Not doing everything in your power to defend people you consider town (Strong tell)

[HighPrincessErinys]

To make it very explicit:

• For scum the only unacceptable lim is a lim on their own groupscum, if town gets limmed then they're still tied in first place for winrate in an X/2/2 scenario so they don't really mind a town mislim if preventing it means they have to stick their neck out for them.
  
• For town, a lim on any scum is acceptable and a lim on any town is unacceptable.

In otherwords, the strongest scumtells in multiball outside of awkward S/S interactions are:

• Refusing to townhunt (Weak tell, could come down to playstyle)
  
• Not doing everything in your power to defend people you consider town (Strong tell)

In other words, you highly suspect Drew's lack of defense on his TR?

[usesPython]

Yeah that's the biggest reason why we'd rather flip Drew over Bulge today

-A

[HighPrincessErinys]

This one is gonna be real in that it's kinda... lost the plot a bit here? It's been reading but it doesn't think it's necessarily been understanding, just that it's probably elimming someone in the range of you (BIG maybe)/Drew/Bulge. A lot of the scumreads on your behavior have felt kinda uncharitable in a way...? Really don't know, it's 4:10am either way, but this one is pretty sure either way that its probably not getting a grasp on what's REALLY up when there's less alive people to have to think about.

[usesPython]

I mean from our perspective 1/3 of the scumreads on us are scum being survivalistic, 1/3 of the scumreads on us are basically a policy lim, and the last 1/3 are people metaing us as a singlet instead of a system so we can kinda see were you're coming from

-A

[osuka]

Both usesPython and The Bulge are at E-2. VC 1.18 is still accurate.

right this is what i was going off of