Micro 1082 - I’m the Real Tracker (Day 4)

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #18 (isolation #0) » Wed May 31, 2023 1:16 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 7, JasonWazza wrote: I'm Victorian, so it's not like I have a major dog in that race.
You come from the 19th century?
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Post Post #19 (isolation #1) » Wed May 31, 2023 1:19 pm

Post by Bingle »

I'm a seeking neighbor. No other seeking neighbor should claim, but if you're a seeking neighbor, you can target me. If I get no neighborhood, I will be taking this as confirmation that I'm a faker.

I will be randomly targeting a player who is not me. This is the extent of the mechanical discussion we need D1.
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Post Post #35 (isolation #2) » Thu Jun 01, 2023 12:51 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 25, Merlyn wrote:
In post 19, Bingle wrote: I'm a seeking neighbor. No other seeking neighbor should claim, but if you're a seeking neighbor, you can target me. If I get no neighborhood, I will be taking this as confirmation that I'm a faker.

I will be randomly targeting a player who is not me. This is the extent of the mechanical discussion we need D1.
I'm super duper confused about this, can you explain more? What stops you from being the obvious NK and then we don't get the info back?
Absolutely nothing stops me from being the nk, but that’s okay. Unconfirmed neighbor is a meh role and if I get shot I get shot. The entire utility behind having exactly one seeking neighbor claim is this:

We might get confirmed pretenders.
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Post Post #36 (isolation #3) » Thu Jun 01, 2023 1:01 am

Post by Bingle »

For clarification, a seeking neighbor who gets a pt with deadme knows they’re alive. A tracker targeting me who goes to the nk has exactly the same implication of me being the killer as they would if I were to not claim. I doubt a doctor should target me, as a neighbor is not a very powerful role and so an unlikely nk target outside of dayplay. An inspector should target me if they believe me to be otherwise scummy, just like an inspector should do with anyone else.


Basically, I have only really influenced the targeting of people with the seeking neighbor role, because for every other pr my claim is entirely irrelevant.

Also, the pseudo claim conversation doesn’t need to happen until D2 at the earliest and has the significant drawback of potentially allowing scum to narrow down the more probably troublesome town prs.
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Post Post #38 (isolation #4) » Thu Jun 01, 2023 1:36 am

Post by Bingle »

Sure. The trade off of having potential sn pretenders know that they are pretenders early is worth exactly one sn claim in my eyes. I would have advocated exactly one sn claim if I had drawn a different role. That’s because the pretender is the role with the highest potential to be useful to specifically town, regardless of whether town or scum rands it. We should lim outside of pretenders if at all possible until the first scum lim because at least one pretender is town.

JW is correct in that if we lim town d1 we should probably do a target and incriminating/clearing/nr claim d2, but if we lim scum a full massclaim is probably better and if we flip tracker the pseudo claim is worth substantially less, which means that the way we pseudo claim (if we do) is a conversation best had, say it with me now, on D2.
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Post Post #43 (isolation #5) » Thu Jun 01, 2023 5:54 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 39, Invisibility wrote: so do we just no lim and try to cut the discussion?
God no. If this was an AITP style game where discussion = bad I wouldn’t be in it.

It’s just a normal game of mafia where claims matter about half as much for the rest of D1.

VOTE: delta
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Post Post #53 (isolation #6) » Thu Jun 01, 2023 12:00 pm

Post by Bingle »

It's pretty odd to me that this plan is being attributed to kowah by a bunch of different people. Vizzy was the first one to bring it up.
In post 39, Invisibility wrote: so do we just no lim and try to cut the discussion?
In post 40, Kowahbunga wrote: I really feel like a no lim gets us to D2 with the most pieces of information. A lim maybe hits scum, but if it doesn't then that's one less piece to the puzzle we have. I'm 101% for a no lim today.
Both of these show a fundamental misunderstanding of the setup, in that this is not a dethy scenario where putting the puzzle pieces into the right shape is autowin for town.

This is not AITP where scum is more heavily incentivized to do the solving than town is.

But regardless of whether or not that would be clear to everyone, it strikes me as super awkward that someone would call out the second post while completely ignoring the post immediately before it.
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Post Post #54 (isolation #7) » Thu Jun 01, 2023 12:01 pm

Post by Bingle »

*insert explicit question implied in the previous post*

Delta, what do you think about Vizzy's 39?
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Post Post #57 (isolation #8) » Thu Jun 01, 2023 4:37 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 55, Invisibility wrote:
In post 53, Bingle wrote: Vizzy was the first one to bring it up.
Kowah was in . Though yeah I do think it's valuable to question why Delta never brought what I said about no limming up. Also yeah you're right about no limming lolz. Plus it's not as fun
Hm. I missed that. I’m still interested in delta’s thoughts.
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Post Post #58 (isolation #9) » Thu Jun 01, 2023 4:39 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 24, JasonWazza wrote: I mean I think we should just policy lim Bingle, because Seeking neighbor's shouldn't be top priority on anything, over getting useful information out of our information roles, and having them to be able to claim that information (which is now impossible, if we keep bingle alive, as claiming targets no longer works.)

Seeking neighbor's should have basically been treated as named Roles.
Any particular reason you’re framing this push both as a scummy claim and a policy lim?
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Post Post #59 (isolation #10) » Thu Jun 01, 2023 4:42 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 42, Merlyn wrote:I've played with them before when he was town and he did the exact same thing.
Lynx?
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Post Post #69 (isolation #11) » Fri Jun 02, 2023 4:20 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 66, JasonWazza wrote: Why is it you think both can't be true?
Because the definition of a policy lim is that it's explicitly not based on the likelihood of hitting scum, but on improving the quality/winnability of a game despite not being based on hitting scum?
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Post Post #70 (isolation #12) » Fri Jun 02, 2023 4:22 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 67, Donempire wrote: I'm missing something.

So mafia can get the seeking neighbour role, and if a town and mafia get the role then that would mean the role essentially becomes useless as now you're not proving to each other your role by being neighbours, yes? In that case, what does finding your neighbour, bingle, would prove except that you are not a pretender?
The utility in the role isn't in finding the neighbors, but in allowing pretenders who were told they were neighbors to find themselves.

Neighbor is basically a VT for this setup, but pretender is ~ 1/2 a named towny.
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Post Post #71 (isolation #13) » Fri Jun 02, 2023 4:27 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 68, Appearance wrote: protect themselves
This is inherently a mafia tell in the setup, more so than normal. A cop would have the motivation "I shouldn't get myself scumread and should fly under the radar". A maybe cop might not. There isn't a single claim in this setup that should necessitate backing down and letting it go D1.
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Post Post #72 (isolation #14) » Fri Jun 02, 2023 4:35 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 66, JasonWazza wrote: Why is it you think both can't be true?

This seems to be a thing that i've come back to that you can't think it's both a worthwhile policy lim, and also scummy, can it be explained to me how exactly this makes sense?
So, to clarify:

There are several different options here:

You think I am an idiot, and therefore a detriment to town regardless of my alignment -> Policy lim.
You think I am intentionally trying to push a bad strategy in order to cripple town's ability to solve -> Claiming is scummy.
You don't actually think either of those things and are just conveniently putting a vote on someone -> You are scummy.

I'm trying to narrow down which one is the case, which I believe to be option 2.
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Post Post #73 (isolation #15) » Fri Jun 02, 2023 4:37 pm

Post by Bingle »

Oh, btw, I've recently taken a new position that will mean my posting will be inconsistent comparatively. I will likely be posting in blocks like this throughout the game, as I will frequently be unable to post while traveling or at work, although I will be able to post in blocks like this at least once a day.
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Post Post #77 (isolation #16) » Fri Jun 02, 2023 6:11 pm

Post by Bingle »

Merlyn is probably town for the meta read. Also the meta read is shit.
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Post Post #80 (isolation #17) » Fri Jun 02, 2023 7:27 pm

Post by Bingle »

Kowahs approach to no lim in both games is actually very different. Here it is an active advocacy and there it was a very bland aside that was barely mentioned. The read is incredibly surface level, insomuch as the only actual similarity is that kowah says they think no lims are a good way to play D1.

With that said, merlyn was scum that game, so the broad strokes kowah doesn’t like to lim d1 takeaway is expected, and her scumgame appears to be decent and based around a fairly good read of the player base. If she had been scum here, I would expect a far more careful meta read than the one that only barely resembles this one, and that she simply linked the game without attempting to justify it with context supports that it was a very cursory thing.

You were in that game, does it seem at all similar to kowah’s D1 here?
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Post Post #82 (isolation #18) » Fri Jun 02, 2023 7:44 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 78, JasonWazza wrote:
In post 72, Bingle wrote:
In post 66, JasonWazza wrote: Why is it you think both can't be true?

This seems to be a thing that i've come back to that you can't think it's both a worthwhile policy lim, and also scummy, can it be explained to me how exactly this makes sense?
So, to clarify:

There are several different options here:

You think I am an idiot, and therefore a detriment to town regardless of my alignment -> Policy lim.
You think I am intentionally trying to push a bad strategy in order to cripple town's ability to solve -> Claiming is scummy.
You don't actually think either of those things and are just conveniently putting a vote on someone -> You are scummy.

I'm trying to narrow down which one is the case, which I believe to be option 2.
I think the claim is bad for town overall due to the fallout of targeting -> Policy Lim.
I think the claim is scummy because of the wording within it -> Voting for you.

In fact i'll take the claim apart to show why.
In post 19, Bingle wrote: I'm a seeking neighbor. No other seeking neighbor should claim, but if you're a seeking neighbor, you can target me. If I get no neighborhood, I will be taking this as confirmation that I'm a faker.

I will be randomly targeting a player who is not me. This is the extent of the mechanical discussion we need D1.
So first line, the second half of this line is unnecessary, and seems to be deliberately setting up for a fail, the reason this can be bad, is i can see a Mafia X claiming seeking neighbor, we have no way of confirming that you aren't that, so this becomes a huge issue.

In fact to add to why this is dumb, we don't actually get confirmation of you not being fake just because a neighborhood doesn't spawn, it's either your fake, or the other seeking neighbor was roleblocked.

Second line is also an issue, your already getting the seeking neighbor to target you, why do you need to target a random player, this seems like setting up a scum kill, with a simple "well i said i'd target randomly" when in this case you should be targeting no one, if you are actually town, hence why i think you should be absolutely roleblocked.
This concern over targeting fallout is very interesting to me. What do you expect a theoretical mafia seeking neighbor loses in the world of track guilties by outing their target the day after? “You targeted X, who was killed. Why?” Would still have the very obvious conclusion of “I thought they were town and I wanted to neighborize them.”

As far as whether I should be specifically tracked or roleblocked… you have put a lot more effort into targeting the tracker and roleblocker here than I have. I’m an objectively safe roleblock target, because roleblocking won’t actually stop anything. I’m an objectively bad scum track target, because explicitly I will be visiting and the stand to gain no information from doing so. But absolutely nothing about my claim makes me a better doctor or tracker or inspector or whatever target than anyone else, and the motivation you claim to see here just doesn’t exist.

There is a scum reason to claim seeking neighbor, and that is to falsely confirm yourself as a pretender, but every mechanical issue you seem to have with my play is pretty much nonsense.
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Post Post #83 (isolation #19) » Fri Jun 02, 2023 7:45 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 81, JasonWazza wrote: Kowah hasn't done much D1 here to go off, personality seems the same, i don't think he has done anything read worthy at this point though.

Though that's also coming from someone that uses Meta mostly as a rule out of reads rather then a generator of reads.
Do you agree that the games are only very superficially similar?
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Post Post #84 (isolation #20) » Fri Jun 02, 2023 7:49 pm

Post by Bingle »

Anyways, it’s two in the morning and I had a 14 hour day, so I’m going to crash, but I hope we can real time back and forth soon. I think I can get a solid bead on you early (my main account is Jingle and iirc we both played a lot with ETL).
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Post Post #91 (isolation #21) » Sat Jun 03, 2023 10:21 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 88, Deltabreedy wrote: why it's worth eliminating me for calling out something I find scummy.
Not the reason I'm voting you?

I don't particularly agree with the angle you're pushing merlyn on, I just think it's awkward that your talking to/about the no lim thing and haven't addressed that apparently it was a thing from multiple people. What do you think about Kowah, atm?

WRT your Merlyn case, I understand your sentiment but I don't think it's compelling on its own and also I think that letting merlyn address it is more likely to give information than if I explain what I think is the case. If she is informed and slipping here, I don't really want to let her off of the leash and am just content to let you do the pushing there, even though I expect it'll come to nothing.
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Post Post #92 (isolation #22) » Sat Jun 03, 2023 10:31 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 86, JasonWazza wrote: The concern for targeting fallout is that i believe this type of game actually actively benefits from our targeting not all falling on the same player, to have the inspector have a bit more value, the issue simply being that you claiming this can motivate people other then the Seeking neighbor to target you, and this actually calls out roles very quickly based on if they target you (or maybe that's just me overthinking things, in that i think certain roles should be targeting you and other's shouldn't).
See, this bit feels like you're talking out of both sides of your mouth to me. Either it's good for people to specifically target me (I don't think this is the case) and your argument that me outing has helped that along, or it's not necessary for other roles to specifically be targeting me (The actual case) and people should basically be ignoring my claim for all targeting purposes. Which means your policy reason for wanting to lim me is nonsense. Literally the only impact my claim should be having on the game is that specifically neighbors should be targeting me. The claim doesn't mean I can't be scum, so I'm still a fine choice for someone looking to investigate, but it also doesn't make me scum, which means that I'm not an auto investigate. There's not much difference between trying to narrow down a roleblocker or doc or tracker based on who they target and their read on said player compared to say, a target massclaim.

Either roles SHOULD be targeting me, in which case, giving them that knowledge is good for town or they SHOULDN'T necessarily be targeting me, in which case the information provided by my claim is entirely meaningless and no less damning than a pseudoclaim strat would already be.
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Post Post #93 (isolation #23) » Sat Jun 03, 2023 10:32 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 90, Kowahbunga wrote: I have a gut feeling about them right now that just comes down to me feeling like their posts are fake.
I think this is probably a result of my RL circumstances, but valid.
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Post Post #94 (isolation #24) » Sat Jun 03, 2023 10:37 am

Post by Bingle »

I think overall this game has a strange preoccupation with the what over the why, when generally I think scumhunting should emphasize the exact opposite.
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Post Post #113 (isolation #25) » Sat Jun 03, 2023 4:57 pm

Post by Bingle »

It's interesting in that Delta is arguing semantics about what merlyn said and ignoring semantics about what he said, but in my limited experience he became obviously town when exposed to pressure. Which is exactly why pressure on Delta is good.

As I see it, merlyn made the argument that Kowah genuinely thinks a no lim is a good idea, so Kowah arguing for a no lim is not a scum indicative behavior. This ignores that how kowah argues that particular belief as scum and town could be very different, and in fact IS very different in this game and the game she linked.

Delta seemingly conflated not scum indicative with being indicative of not being scum, and has been saying that Merlyn perspective slipped knowledge of town kowah. Merlyn only ever said that the push for a no elimination was not itself scummy.

If what Delta was actually pushing was that Merlyn should have been more wary about the difference between how scum Kowah and town Kowah would push that thing that was a genuine belief, which seems to be what he's arguing in 105, then I'd like him to engage with my logic on why I think assuming a consistency in belief isn't worth analyzing is a town thought process, if a surface level one.

If Delta is actually pushing that the word choice of Not Scum Indicative vs Not Alignment Indicative is damning, then I think that's a bad take and disagree.
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Post Post #115 (isolation #26) » Sat Jun 03, 2023 5:00 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 112, Political Clout wrote: I was thinking the same thing. but what jason said makes a lot of sense with the pseudo cop thing. alginments are random and roles are random so I thought it was just designed to cause chaos and I was going to treat like a micro vanilla game.
Not entirely wrong. The game is close enough to a smalltown, philosophy wise. Power role wise, we can ignore what people have today safely. Starting tomorrow, we should be able to make judgments about whether what they claim to have done makes sense to do as scum or town.
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Post Post #116 (isolation #27) » Sat Jun 03, 2023 5:05 pm

Post by Bingle »

To give the self meta I give in virtually every game:

I argue mech from a position of arguing what I believe to be the best mech for town in all cases where there isn't an autowin for town that I can't deal with as scum. I do this because as scum in a reasonably balanced setup the risk in being caught arguing shit mech is much greater to me than the risk in town following good mech advise I give. I also tend to be heavily invested in mech, as my primary interaction with mafia is as a game reviewer and/or repository of useless game theory.
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Post Post #117 (isolation #28) » Sat Jun 03, 2023 5:07 pm

Post by Bingle »

Subject: Micro Queue (Players and Mods)
In post 1648, GuyInFreezer wrote: /in to mod
Game Name:
I’m the Real Tracker
Game Type:
Open
Game Size:
9p

Co/Backup Mod:
None
Reviewed By:
Technically Jingle
Setup Link:
viewtopic.php?p=13783705#p13783705
Current Modding Commitments:
None
Experience:
None
a lot

Hydra Policy:
If you really want to hydra in a micro I won’t stop you
Other Restrictions?:

Deadlines?:
Day deadline = Alive players (min 5), Night deadline = Alive Mafia players
Is it possible your game has any mechanically bastard roles or mechanics?
Not outside of what’s been already mentioned
Is it possible your game has any procedurally bastard dynamics?
No
Description:
Experimental open setup.
Supporting Evidence: I am the Jingle in question.
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Post Post #120 (isolation #29) » Sat Jun 03, 2023 5:11 pm

Post by Bingle »

@Merlyn, do you still think that Kowah's approach to no lim here is similar to Kowah's approach to no lim in the linked game?
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Post Post #123 (isolation #30) » Sat Jun 03, 2023 5:34 pm

Post by Bingle »

In this game:

Spoiler:
In post 21, Kowahbunga wrote: I think Bingle's claim could literally break open the game if we just end the day now and assume everyone who is anyone is smart enough to do what needs to be done from here and come back on D2 with the potential of a ton of information to use.

VOTE: no lim
In post 23, Kowahbunga wrote: Hmm, I see. They could even both be scum, I suppose.

I still think day should end with no lim. Come back on D2 and discuss. I also strongly feel like a massclaim today would be fun.
In post 40, Kowahbunga wrote: I really feel like a no lim gets us to D2 with the most pieces of information. A lim maybe hits scum, but if it doesn't then that's one less piece to the puzzle we have. I'm 101% for a no lim today.
In post 65, Kowahbunga wrote: I feel a no lim is still our best option. Even with people disagreeing with me. Everyone has a power this game, even if you're a pretender, you're going to do something and get information. Which means everyone is going to be playing for their survival more than to solve today because everyone will be of the opinion they're important and need to see out the day so they can hopefully avoid the NK and get their ability off to save the day for town.

I do however think it's probably more advantageous than my usual "just end the day asap" to spend more time trying to solve the game and get a good feel for everyone so that everyone can target appropriately. We should not lim today.


Not only actively voting for no lim, 4/5 of their opening posts are actively advocating that we do no lim.

Spoiler:
In post 42, Kowahbunga wrote:
In post 28, MafiaSSK wrote:
In post 24, Deltabreedy wrote: Gets us talking, gets us out of random voting and into the good stuff. RVS is a fundamentally useless stage of the game and the sooner we can break out of it, the better.

Scum would would RVS to continue for as long as possible to mitigate the amount of healthy, productive conversation we can all have.
I can't believe that this trope still hasn't been defeated yet. RVS will naturally end, most of the time. You don't need to be a troll to end the thing. You're just trying to gain townie credit in a very greedy and kinda overly defensive manner.
My vote stays, this is scum.
In post 49, Kowahbunga wrote:
In post 45, MafiaSSK wrote:
In post 42, Kowahbunga wrote:
In post 28, MafiaSSK wrote:
In post 24, Deltabreedy wrote: Gets us talking, gets us out of random voting and into the good stuff. RVS is a fundamentally useless stage of the game and the sooner we can break out of it, the better.

Scum would would RVS to continue for as long as possible to mitigate the amount of healthy, productive conversation we can all have.
I can't believe that this trope still hasn't been defeated yet. RVS will naturally end, most of the time. You don't need to be a troll to end the thing. You're just trying to gain townie credit in a very greedy and kinda overly defensive manner.
My vote stays, this is scum.
why
Your post is from an obvious scum mindset to me. It's not a trope that ending RVS is a good thing. Games do not need a 5 page RVS. The sooner it is over the better for town because the game begins. What is the difference between RVS ending on page 10 or page 1? Why would you ever think it's more natural for RVS to end later than sooner? RVS ended naturally here too but you're speaking like it didn't.

Overall I currently feel you're trying to brute force yourself out of the corner you're in, when I believe a town player would just continue scum hunting on their way to remove the votes. You're not presenting logic, you're presenting excuses.
In post 125, Kowahbunga wrote: VOTE: deltabreedy


Im catching up on my phone but his posts are not making me feel he is genuine. I have this bad feeling about everything of his I have read so im going to chase this feeling.
In post 167, Kowahbunga wrote:
In post 162, SeeEmpty wrote:
In post 141, Kowahbunga wrote:I don't consider D1 nearly as important as everyone likes to pretend and I'm not afraid to say it. People love to mention "oh we can see this or that and wagons and blah blah blah" then all of it's for nothing because by the end of the game no one even looks at it again. I like to get my sights set on someone and focus in on them on D1. I hunt for one scum and find it. From there, I begin using information that actually exists... Like the final wagon of each day, the night kill. I consider each game like an omelet, and you can't make an omelet without breaking a few eggs. I believe playing D1 like you're going to find all the scum and it's just going to be scum lim after scum lim until game is over is a ridiculous concept to chase. But people love to pretend that is how it'll play out.

I'm not going to bother wasting my effort getting a read on everyone D1. I'll do my part in 1 or 2 people and let others interaction with others be the information I use in D2 and later if I'm around.
This is terrible if it is coming from town, and it is getting on my nerves a little. All I see is:

"y'all are not going to get much from me now because that's how I play",
"you guys go ahead, while I sit back and observe so that I can do more later",
"somebody is bound to be mislimmed, stop dreaming about D2 win, and the content is going to be here anyway, so what's the point of forming/sharing any thoughts now".

If everyone just goes "Yeah my guts say he's scum", where are we getting content for D2 analysis? Sharing reads helps other to pay attention to things that they might have missed. Why is that more important in D2 than in D1?
Because town do not have information to play with in D1. I'm not saying you don't need to talk, but providing full read lists in D1 is almost pointless. Find a couple people to solve and then expand on it as the game goes. Don't try and figure the whole game out in a day that it is literally impossible to figure the whole game out in.

To take it even further, if I had my way in mafia and in a perfect world we would all vote no lim d1 silently and get to D2 unless it was a completely vanilla game with no powers.

In my opinion of the game the balance of information is where town win. At the start the town have far less than scum. Us talking is giving them more information than it's giving us. No limming guarantees no town pr is outed, PLUS it makes it so the scum have to NK by a complete random basis. I play the odds here, give us the entire town alive in N1 with powers firing, and assume the odds will be in our favour and scum hit a VT. THEN you can start playing the game for real.

The fact I even bother to try and find scum on D1 is more than I wish I had to do.
In post 179, Kowahbunga wrote:
In post 177, SeeEmpty wrote:
In post 167, Kowahbunga wrote:Because town do not have information to play with in D1. I'm not saying you don't need to talk, but providing full read lists in D1 is almost pointless. Find a couple people to solve and then expand on it as the game goes. Don't try and figure the whole game out in a day that it is literally impossible to figure the whole game out in.

To take it even further, if I had my way in mafia and in a perfect world we would all vote no lim d1 silently and get to D2 unless it was a completely vanilla game with no powers.

In my opinion of the game the balance of information is where town win. At the start the town have far less than scum. Us talking is giving them more information than it's giving us. No limming guarantees no town pr is outed, PLUS it makes it so the scum have to NK by a complete random basis. I play the odds here, give us the entire town alive in N1 with powers firing, and assume the odds will be in our favour and scum hit a VT. THEN you can start playing the game for real.

The fact I even bother to try and find scum on D1 is more than I wish I had to do.
This doesn't add up. No limming guarantees that no pressure is applied to anyone, giving scum the perfect environment to hide in plain sight. Without pressure, no one will be able to see people's reaction under duress, which can sometimes be valuable information later in case. When we silently go to first night with absolutely no info, town PRs also have to target in random, not only scum, essentially making it a night start. When everything is up to chance, I fail to see how any NK will give us more to analyze in D2, unless you're willing to take the chance that Town PR managed to target scum, and survive the night. This current setup doesn't even guarantee that we have town PR that is able to perform night action.

Earlier you were okay with a few eggs being broken to cook an omelette, and now you'd prefer otherwise?
In post 166, Deltabreedy wrote:@SeeEmpty, how does this weigh up against your read on SSK?
I'm getting more and more uncomfortable and dissatisfied of his point of view, but for now I'm not sure if it is just bad play or scum play just yet.
The difference between town prs and scum prs is that town prs can find scum or town confirm (at least to the PR if not to the whole game) players. The blind part does not matter for town prs. Also a town PR should be used on their null reads anyways. Which everyone would be if no lim was voted through on D1.

We are WAY past the point where no lim is the way to go. I said if I could have it my way, everyone would vote no lim silently to start D1. We've long past that, and I'm way over trying to convince people to do it anymore at the start of every game. No one believes I'm right about it, and I'm okay with that.


Despite saying they want to no lim, they're not shy about throwing votes around and trying to get to a lim. They go a bit into their reasoning for wanting no lim overall (low information heading into night gives better PR results with minimal mafia interference) and acknowledge that in their view the no lim should happen with virtually no discussion prior. Compare to this game, where they are not only in favor of no lim but early mass claim and think that no lim is still viable even in light of my having claimed, and there is actually quite a gulf between the way they've approached what is probably a genuinely held belief. The underlying belief in no lim remains constant, but virtually everything around that is night and day.
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Post Post #134 (isolation #31) » Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:41 am

Post by Bingle »

@ Delta, Overall I disagree with the interpretation that Merlyn's statement was analogous to "This isn't what scum Kowah would do" and took the statement as "This is a thing that Kowah would do as town as well". What do you think of her not seeing the differences between the previous game and this one in how Kowah treated the early day.

I actually kind of agree with you on the "I think everyone is scummy" point being odd, as I personally think that there have been quite a few interactions that look vaguely like town trying to figure shit out. Nothing concrete enough to write home about, but I have a few townleans and no firm scum leads at the moment, and to hear that she doesn't strikes me as strange.

What do you think about JW's simultaneous arguments that I'm scum for trying to pull attention to me and getting people to target me and statements that people should optimally be targeting me? My gut is telling me that it's unnatural to both believe that I should be targeted by a bunch of roles and that scum me would benefit from having all of those roles target me, but I think it might be a situation I'm too close to to analyze well.
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Post Post #135 (isolation #32) » Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:42 am

Post by Bingle »

In either case, I think Delta is probably town here.

UNVOTE:
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Post Post #138 (isolation #33) » Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:49 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 28, JasonWazza wrote: Well any seeking neighbor, Pretender or otherwise targets Bingle, as you noted, a kill would make sense to go towards Bingle, so a Doctor probably needs to go there as well, and the way it was claimed means it could just be scum trying to justify targeting the kill by saying "i am targeting randomly" so Roleblock and Tracker could also make sense heading to Bingle.
In post 86, JasonWazza wrote: The concern for targeting fallout is that i believe this type of game actually actively benefits from our targeting not all falling on the same player, to have the inspector have a bit more value, the issue simply being that you claiming this can motivate people other then the Seeking neighbor to target you, and this actually calls out roles very quickly based on if they target you (or maybe that's just me overthinking things, in that i think certain roles should be targeting you and other's shouldn't).
This, especially when paired with the acknowledgment that seeking neighbor on its own isn't a role that should draw night actions other than seeking neighbor to it.
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Post Post #139 (isolation #34) » Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:51 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 136, Deltabreedy wrote: Also, has your read on Merlyn changed or do you still see her as town?
I still think the fact that she's trying to apply the meta is townish, but I'm waiting on her to respond to my clarification of why the games were incredibly different regardless. She's roughly on par with Vizzy, who is purely a tonal read.
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Post Post #140 (isolation #35) » Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:55 am

Post by Bingle »

Actually,

VOTE: PC

I feel like you're being very reactive here and Delta's 133 resonates. Do you have any reads you feel strongly about?
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Post Post #141 (isolation #36) » Mon Jun 05, 2023 3:05 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 137, Deltabreedy wrote: And I think my aversion to using meta kind of blinds me to the positives of it - so I've not got much input on the differences between that game and this one.
It's not *really* a meta argument, although yeah, I am looking at another game.

Let me sum it up:

Merlyn knows from prior experience that Kowah thinks a D1 no lim is a real thing that should be done in non extraordinary situations, because Kowah said so in a game where they had no incentive to lie.
Merlyn looked at Kowah saying that and dismissed that as a reason to scumread Kowah.
Merlyn didn't register that the WAY Kowah was looking for a no lim would be a factor.

I think, just based on personality from skimming that other game and her posting so far in this one that as scum Merlyn would be more cautious about the read than town Merlyn, and that the brush off here is actually more likely to be from a town her than a scum her.

Which, I guess is still kind of a meta read, but more in that I'm using meta to try and get a feel for what kind of person she is and then reading her actions based on what I see there.
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Post Post #144 (isolation #37) » Mon Jun 05, 2023 3:46 am

Post by Bingle »

Meta itself is a tool that can be applied well. In this particular case, I think Merlyn saw a particular thing and jumped to an unwarranted conclusion without poking further: I think that what you did in that game and what you're doing in this game are different enough that asking why they are different can definitely lead to alignment indicative information.

Can you elaborate on why you think no lim is good WITH discussion here, compared to why you wanted no discussion for no lim in the other game?
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Post Post #151 (isolation #38) » Mon Jun 05, 2023 3:18 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 140, Bingle wrote: Actually,

VOTE: PC

I feel like you're being very reactive here and Delta's 133 resonates. Do you have any reads you feel strongly about?
In post 145, Political Clout wrote:
In post 133, Deltabreedy wrote:
In post 119, Political Clout wrote:
In post 88, Deltabreedy wrote: *snip*
I agree UNVOTE: we are thinking the same thing.
I find it a smidge suspect how you agree with me in full after being called out for sheeping the vote on me.
I didn't see anyone calling me out I'll go check later. focusing on something else today everyone.
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Post Post #152 (isolation #39) » Mon Jun 05, 2023 3:23 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 146, JasonWazza wrote: a claimed role is a different beast entirely
I don't really think it is? Like, a VT claim isn't any more likely than an unclaimed slot for a doctor to target. And a person pseudoclaiming a target on a UTR is naturally more likely to be a doctor than a person pseudoclaiming a target on a scummy lurkerslot. I can maybe grok that you thought other people might have decided to target me based on the claim given Kowah's reaction, but legitimately that shouldn't happen and I didn't even consider that it would. I had the nullest of null claims and it should have approximately no influence on anyone without a SN rolecard as far as I am concerned.

Your clarification does make me feel a bit better about you though.
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Post Post #153 (isolation #40) » Mon Jun 05, 2023 3:24 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 149, GuyInFreezer wrote: Replacing Merlyn. If the replacement is not found by 3 days before the deadline, deadline will be frozen.
Sadge.
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Post Post #159 (isolation #41) » Tue Jun 06, 2023 1:58 am

Post by Bingle »

Lies and slander.
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Post Post #162 (isolation #42) » Tue Jun 06, 2023 3:08 am

Post by Bingle »

/oog

Your argument is fundamentally flawed in that not all power roles are equal. Generally speaking, (and this is speaking not as a player but as a designer and reviewer of games, especially opens and mechanically complex closeds) the impacts of town choosing to no eliminate are a concern that is overlooked quite often in the design process, but that's more a function of how often they're actually a good idea. I am not a reviewer who disregards the no elimination case. In this case, we have 3 miseliminations before we lose the game. A no lim strategy has to be strong enough to overcome the loss of an elimination, the natural detriment of being on evens (scum have more voting power in an evens setup), and the risk of a lucky scum shot taking out the power that would otherwise be making up for not advancing our wincondition.

No elimination is specifically bad in this setup (and, indeed, in almost any smalltown setup) because the actual level of power we have available to us is random. If we have an inspector, tracker, doc, roleblocker, and loyal checker who are all town, and enough of them are obviously town to be trusted when they claim. As it is, this setup offers literally no guarantees that any individual result can be trusted and greatly favors town eliminating a scum player early.

I'd be happy to discuss game theory in the post, but this is probably already more than I should do so in game, as it's not super relevant.
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Post Post #163 (isolation #43) » Tue Jun 06, 2023 3:12 am

Post by Bingle »

I can kind of understand why Kowah thinks that discussion doesn't hurt the proposed no lim, fwiw, and at this point I agree that the belief is a genuine one.

Kowah, what do you think about Merlyn's meta defense of you? Reasonable, unreasonable, banana?
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Post Post #164 (isolation #44) » Tue Jun 06, 2023 3:12 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 160, Black wrote: Let me get my coffee and then I'll digest everything
Hell of a coffee. :P
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Post Post #215 (isolation #45) » Tue Jun 06, 2023 2:55 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 165, Black wrote: Pretenders know they are pretenders, right?
They do not.
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Post Post #216 (isolation #46) » Tue Jun 06, 2023 3:10 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 165, Black wrote: 93 - I'm not really a big fan of Bingle just accepting the "your posts feel fake" claim and not asking Kowah to elaborate
I mean, I literally started a new job last Tuesday and my posting is now squeezed into vastly different time slots from my historical norm. I'd be surprised if I wasn't tonally off.
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Post Post #217 (isolation #47) » Tue Jun 06, 2023 3:22 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 195, Black wrote: I understand that. I still think the RB should only block Bingle if they think he is scum though
^

Also, if we say... leash the roleblocker to scumMe (in a hypothetical where that is possible because I am scum) that makes it really easy for my scumbuddy to yknow, make the kill. RB should arrive at their own conclusion of who is the best target and target there, without making it incredibly obvious. It might be worth it to have a designated roleblock target in the case that a scum lim happens today (1 scum remaining means any roleblocked player is conftown if a kill happens) but it doesn't necessarily have to be me.
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Post Post #219 (isolation #48) » Tue Jun 06, 2023 4:11 pm

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It is incredibly antitown to aim the roleblocker. The roleblocker should arrive at their own conclusions as to where they should target.
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Post Post #221 (isolation #49) » Tue Jun 06, 2023 5:03 pm

Post by Bingle »

We're back to the problem of a truly immense amount of cogdis in your arguments.
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Post Post #223 (isolation #50) » Tue Jun 06, 2023 5:40 pm

Post by Bingle »

My claim is bad because it influences targeting, to the point that it justifies a policy lim. Also, we should be pseudoleashing a roleblocker to my claim, because it actively mitigates the dangers of a roleblocker. Also also, it is proscum to have individual roles be recognizable based on whether they claim to have targeted me in pseudoclaim, completely ignoring that a pseudoclaim by it's very nature groups people into "roles that target townreads" and "roles that target scumreads".

Regardless, the point of a town roleblocker D1 is the threat of a roleblock. Say, for instance, that you scumtrack me. You receive a no result. You don't know whether you are a pretender or have been roleblocked, so whether or not you can safely fakeclaim is in question. Say instead that you get a result of I targeted Kowah. You don't know if you are a pretender or I actually targeted Kowah. Say I targeted no one. You don't know if I holstered, was rb'd or you are a pretender. The threat that maybe a roleblocker might have interfered with information means that scum can't lie about their N1 action easily, which then makes their claim vastly more interesting, because the only viable fakeclaim is to be a pretender and pretenders don't actually take actions.
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Post Post #240 (isolation #51) » Wed Jun 07, 2023 2:57 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 231, JasonWazza wrote: Also another News Flash for Bingle, outing the Pretenders early, isn't actually good for town.
So, probably the last time I’m engaging on this, because it’s already become a huge distraction from actually scumhunting, but what can I say: I can’t resist it.

Jason’s original advocacy for a mass pseudo claim introduces massive risk of mafia being able to narrow role likelihood down by the read type. If black targeted JW here, for example, even without my claim, everyone would pretty well be able to tell that wasn’t a doc shot and was probably about investigating. My claim doesn’t really change that.

What he has been doing is saying all of the things he sees as positive fallout from my claim (such as a roleblocker who is supposedly negative utility being able to target a low priority action if they choose) and trying to point power roles at specific people. A doctor could have the idea that I would be a night action magnet and protect me, or a doctor could think “Wow, neighbor is shit, I wouldn’t kill there” or a doctor could think “Man Bingle is an asshat; I hope that fucker dies.” JW is the one, through arguing specific potential lines of thought, that is actually aiming the doc at me, and the rb at me, and the tracker at me.

IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT EVERY PLAYER CHOOSE THEIR OWN TARGETS, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THAT TARGET IS ME. This denies scum access to the thought processes of the roles to scum.

Additionally, nothing I’ve done is about publicly outing the pretenders, but rather privately letting the pretenders themselves know they are pretenders.

Also, this is a micro. Potential XLO is D3 we absolutely want to have the pretenders know who they are before that point if we can.

VOTE: JW
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Post Post #241 (isolation #52) » Wed Jun 07, 2023 2:57 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 239, GuyInFreezer wrote: VC here
Hi VC!
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Post Post #244 (isolation #53) » Wed Jun 07, 2023 3:39 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 242, Kowahbunga wrote: I don't believe meta exists.
/oog

It definitely does. I'm not going to pull up specific examples, but suffice to say that there are people with a certain amount of experience/dedication to reading that are able to have mostly accurate reads on certain people. There are also people who are so shit at one alignment or another that their alignment is pretty much always obvious. Generally though, when people make meta arguments they are doing so very poorly.

The kind of thing that meta is fairly universally good for, though, is determining what kind of person a player is. Like, JW is fairly aggressive, merlyn was pretty cautious from what I could tell, vizzy tends to be pretty go with the flow, you appear to be pretty open and I can't help but get bogged down in theory when the opportunity arises. :shifty:

None of that can directly tell me someone's alignment, but it does provide a framework to guess at what they might be trying to do in this game, which does.

tl;dr- Meta is a tool to be used in conjunction with other tools. It is very rarely useful as a standalone.
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Post Post #245 (isolation #54) » Wed Jun 07, 2023 3:42 am

Post by Bingle »

The problem with your view of the game, Kowah, is that games are designed to not give enough information for town to actually be able to solve them simply through the use of night actions. A game like that can exist, but generally if you only approach the game looking at the information provided by cops/investigations/etc, you're going to lose.

Yes, we will probably end up eliminating town today, but in doing so we will narrow down the pool of players scum can be in. Think of the D1 lim as a cop shot that has the potentially good or bad side effect of leaving a corpse behind.
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Post Post #247 (isolation #55) » Wed Jun 07, 2023 3:49 am

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Like 80% of the thread has been mech talk, and there's really no point to it today. The tl;dr is pick your target based on your own personal thoughts to prevent scum from playing around any publicly assigned choices. We decide whether the flips suggest we should claim targets tomorrow, full claim tomorrow, or claim nothing tomorrow. If we full claim, we discuss whether those choices make sense. If we don't, we continue playing the game of mafia.
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Post Post #248 (isolation #56) » Wed Jun 07, 2023 3:49 am

Post by Bingle »

What do you think of JW, Kowah?
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Post Post #252 (isolation #57) » Wed Jun 07, 2023 3:58 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 250, Kowahbunga wrote:
In post 231, JasonWazza wrote: Also another News Flash for Bingle, outing the Pretenders early, isn't actually good for town.
Isn't this literally impossible to do without their flips? Not even scum can know who is a pretender until the flip. In fact, one of the scum could even be a pretender. So this post seems very odd.
I mean, technically we could massclaim, determine which roles contained pretender slots lim one of those roles and have a pretty good shot at publicly outing pretenders on D2. That would also be a very stupid plan.
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Post Post #254 (isolation #58) » Wed Jun 07, 2023 4:01 am

Post by Bingle »

Not in as many words. JW expressed a reason why a doc might choose to target me based on me being a neighbor, which positively influences the odds that a doc might target me based on being a neighbor. I think a doc targeting me based on anything other than their read on my slot would be silly.
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Post Post #255 (isolation #59) » Wed Jun 07, 2023 4:04 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 28, JasonWazza wrote: Well any seeking neighbor, Pretender or otherwise targets Bingle, as you noted, a kill would make sense to go towards Bingle, so a Doctor probably needs to go there as well, and the way it was claimed means it could just be scum trying to justify targeting the kill by saying "i am targeting randomly" so Roleblock and Tracker could also make sense heading to Bingle.
This is what I was referencing, and when I pushed at it the response was "That's not what I think should be done, but what someone else might think should be done." which does not at all match the presentation of the post in my eyes.
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Post Post #312 (isolation #60) » Wed Jun 07, 2023 3:52 pm

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In post 260, Black wrote:
In post 240, Bingle wrote: IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT EVERY PLAYER CHOOSE THEIR OWN TARGETS, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THAT TARGET IS ME. This denies scum access to the thought processes of the usage of the roles.
Quoting this for posterity
I feel very self conscious that you're calling out my shit sentence structure for posterity so I'm fixing it and we can all pretend the previous iteration doesn't exist. Kay? Kay.
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Post Post #313 (isolation #61) » Wed Jun 07, 2023 3:57 pm

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In post 283, Doctor Drew wrote: On a lighthearted note, this just made me laugh. I miss playing with you Bingle.
VOTE: Dr. Drew

I have a long history with people in the medical profession trying to steal my lucky golden baguettes. Also, he's probably a cultist.
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Post Post #316 (isolation #62) » Wed Jun 07, 2023 4:02 pm

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In post 296, Invisibility wrote: I feel like 80% of your posts have been about mech talk lol
I mean... Assuming you classify pointing out JW talking out of both sides of his mouth about my claim as mech talk that sounds about right. It's actually kind of baffling to me that you, pc, and don all seem to think that I'm reverting to mech when my mech has basically all been an avenue of scumhunting and I feel like I've been dragged into a lot of it.
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Post Post #319 (isolation #63) » Wed Jun 07, 2023 4:08 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 315, Doctor Drew wrote: Pre Edit: Haha Bingle, I love you.........(you shut your goddamn mouth about me being a cultist though, I will cut you).
Sounds like something a cultist would say. What's your read on me?
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Post Post #321 (isolation #64) » Wed Jun 07, 2023 4:12 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 317, Political Clout wrote: that's just not true you seem really eager to do it or am I wrong?
I have a hard time not engaging mech talk because it's like... my existence on site. I genuinely don't want to talk mech in this case because the more we talk about mech D1 the more scum can glean from said talk and try to mitigate the benefits of our PRs when we do hit claim day.

I also think that I don't really have a choice in doing so when my biggest scumread at the moment is a result of someone arguing what I see to be mutually exclusive mech points.
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Post Post #328 (isolation #65) » Wed Jun 07, 2023 4:24 pm

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In post 323, Doctor Drew wrote: I am not wrong in that you played games with Jason back in the day, right Bingle?
Not super frequently, although I think we both frequently played with some other scummers who no longer play on site. iirc JW was big into the MS minecraft crew, although it's been probably 8 years since I've done anything with that. I could look up the game history, but it's probably a moot point now. My impression is that he wouldn't back down out of fear of losing, but it is entirely reasonable that he would not want to deal with me personality wise as either alignment, especially given that I was ATA-ing and that can be pretty frustrating, regardless of whether he was genuine or disgenuine. I also tend to discount replacements that aren't super obvious in their alignment motivations, because I view all alignment based replacement as cheating and like to assume people aren't cheating.
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Post Post #335 (isolation #66) » Wed Jun 07, 2023 4:41 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 334, Black wrote: Oh I'm dumb. You were yelling at me because I suggested you're old too lol
GET OFF MY LAWN
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Post Post #341 (isolation #67) » Wed Jun 07, 2023 5:09 pm

Post by Bingle »

I'm vaguely okay with Black's content at the moment, but that could be a playstyle thing. I think she's being pretty reasonable with her interactions with people, and also I've liked a few of her takes, but that could well be that I'm wrong about things and she's taking advantage of it.

I think JW arguing that something is simultaneously mechanically proscum to push me and mechanically protown to make the thing more mechanically proscum is scum indicative. I think that's pretty clear from my posting?

Honestly, I've been kind of glazing over your back and forth with Black tonight and if I were to try and give it a read atm I'd say it feels like a TvT, but that's also not fair at all to the interaction because I'm burned out from 11 hours at work and skipping lunch, so I'll get back to you when my brain is a little bit less of a pile of mush. If you want, you could give me a teal dear of what you're picking up and I can give you an impression, but I'm certainly going to read it more closely tomorrow.
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Post Post #347 (isolation #68) » Thu Jun 08, 2023 3:20 am

Post by Bingle »

Between Gamma and Epsilon.
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Post Post #350 (isolation #69) » Thu Jun 08, 2023 4:14 am

Post by Bingle »

I looked back at the Black/PC discussion, and I don't have any really meaningful revelations. 314 was painful to read, and I completely understand the confusion on black's part and *think* I understand the confusion on PC's part. If I understand it correctly, you're saying that black was accusing Drew slot of scum but also being fairly relaxed with her engagement of Drew (which... is a thing I'm doing). I couldn't really figure out the subtext of the conversation tbh (I'm not sure what the initial fair question you had for black was but I'm guessing contextually that it was about her Kowah read) and while I disagree that a request for clarification is unreasonable I don't think Black is being unreasonable with her expectation that people know where her reads are at.

I also feel like there's quite a bit of you jumping the gun on calling her out for not going anywhere with specific interactions. Not in a particularly scummy way but in a "if there IS going to be something coming from this it probably needs to be let to air a while, so jumping in and saying 'Nothing will come from this' is just poisoning that particular well, regardless of whether there ends up being water at the bottom." way. I also tend not to worry about people not following up on longshot threads if they ARE following up on threads that have more meat to them. Like, if I had ignored JW's loggerheads stances about mech in order to chase after something like Vizzy being self deprecating, I'd be abandoning a strong lane of questioning for a weak one, and that would be scummy. I don't expect people to formally close inquiries that become obviously fruitless, if that makes sense.

Not sure how much of that is coherent, but that's what reading the last few pages worth of dual isos nets me with the PC/Black interactions.
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Post Post #351 (isolation #70) » Thu Jun 08, 2023 4:16 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 304, Doctor Drew wrote: Don't try and manipulate me.
I'd like it if you'd elaborate on this thought when you have time.
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Post Post #368 (isolation #71) » Thu Jun 08, 2023 6:40 pm

Post by Bingle »

Real time chats are gonna be rough for me this game. I've already worked 40 hours this week and I have a ten hour day and travel back home scheduled for tomorrow. Fun work, but not really conducive to midday mafia-ing unfortunately. Things will probably settle into a routine sooner or later, but real time chats will mostly happen in the morning, late at night, or on my weekends.

Mostly, I'm interested in what you think PC was trying to do with the manipulation. Did it feel like town trying to motivate you to post more? Scum trying to pocket you? Adding fuel to a fire? Leading specific conclusions? There's a lot of ways people manipulate each other in mafia and I want to know what specific type of manipulation you feel is going on there.
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Post Post #434 (isolation #72) » Sat Jun 10, 2023 10:33 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 402, Abnegation wrote: also, mech question. is there a benefit to having people claim at e-1/intent in this setup?
D1 not completely useless but not really important, days 2+ potentially.
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Post Post #435 (isolation #73) » Sat Jun 10, 2023 10:39 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 408, Donempire wrote: As for jason, he replaced out, so any reads i would have had for his spot (which wasn't comprehensive) are irrelevant.
You're saying you won't analyze his behavior because he's gone? I get that Drew can't answer for him, but we at least know what he did and can apply that knowledge.
In post 420, Donempire wrote: Can you point out where JW did that? I'm isoing him and i couldn't find what you're talking about.
In post 254, Bingle wrote: Not in as many words. JW expressed a reason why a doc might choose to target me based on me being a neighbor, which positively influences the odds that a doc might target me based on being a neighbor. I think a doc targeting me based on anything other than their read on my slot would be silly.
In post 255, Bingle wrote:
In post 28, JasonWazza wrote: Well any seeking neighbor, Pretender or otherwise targets Bingle, as you noted, a kill would make sense to go towards Bingle, so a Doctor probably needs to go there as well, and the way it was claimed means it could just be scum trying to justify targeting the kill by saying "i am targeting randomly" so Roleblock and Tracker could also make sense heading to Bingle.
This is what I was referencing, and when I pushed at it the response was "That's not what I think should be done, but what someone else might think should be done." which does not at all match the presentation of the post in my eyes.
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Post Post #436 (isolation #74) » Sat Jun 10, 2023 10:44 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 386, Abnegation wrote: or why they think a kill is headed there? or why bingle would claim that to supposedly get out of being seen killing? getting tracked to the nk is sus whether you've claimed or not.
roleblocker should only go there if they think bingle is scum.
so this is simultaneously implying that bingle is likely to get nightkilled (despite their role being kind of useless) and also that their claim is sus enough that it makes sense to roleblock them. idk if that's directly contradictory but it's odd.
this seems to continue in his later posts. interested to see how this plays out in later pages.
Abnegation all up in my head in here.
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Post Post #437 (isolation #75) » Sat Jun 10, 2023 10:50 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 381, Invisibility wrote: like this feels so much like PC is dipping their toe in the water, asking everyone what they think of Black so that they can know how safe it is to make this push. This behavior is made even scummier since PC isn't voting Black
Honestly I don't get this feeling from the PC/Black interaction as much as the PC/me interactions. I think acknowledging that you may be tunneled is a thing that isn't particularly scum indicative.

With that said, 24 hours to deadline and no townread there means I'm totally down for a PC lim.
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Post Post #438 (isolation #76) » Sat Jun 10, 2023 10:59 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 402, Abnegation wrote: alright, so here's where i'm at.
bingle/dr. drew/invis/kowah are all townleans of various degrees and i wouldn't vote them today.
Any particulars you can share on the Drew townlean, esp since you were picking up what I was putting down about JW's push just not making any sense?

I don't really hate anything Drew's done, but I also don't see anything super towny.
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Post Post #439 (isolation #77) » Sat Jun 10, 2023 11:02 am

Post by Bingle »

Invisibility
Black
Abnegation

Kowahbunga


Donempire
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Appearance

Doctor Drew


Roughly where I'm at playing by sense of smell.
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Post Post #441 (isolation #78) » Sat Jun 10, 2023 11:05 am

Post by Bingle »

Actually, there should probably be a line between PC and appearance there.
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Post Post #444 (isolation #79) » Sat Jun 10, 2023 11:09 am

Post by Bingle »

I can grok that.
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Post Post #446 (isolation #80) » Sat Jun 10, 2023 11:24 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 443, Abnegation wrote: @bingle - since you were talking about meta from newbie 2118 earlier, what's your take on jason's mech talk that game? i'm not telling you to go re-read the whole thing if you don't want to, but i would be interested to hear if you think it's relevant or changes anything from a meta perspective. this post is the one that comes to mind for me. it's also got the aiming of power roles that you were talking about earlier.
Reading that post in Isolation makes me think it's an improper application of a Nash equilibrium, but I'd have to read for context.

It is true enough to say that a Doc should always target an outed investigative role. The idea that they shouldn't is part of the aforementioned Nash equilibrium concept where it is sometimes optimal to make a suboptimal choice to subvert the opponent always making the optimal choice. (In this case, doc should always target tracker which means that scum shouldn't target tracker and should go doc hunting, which means that doc should maybe target someone who looks doccish like 5% of the time so that scum might instead choose to target the tracker somewhere like 2% of the time which adjusts up and down based on both parties' understanding of the equilibrium. It's a rather fascinating concept, actually.) JW is also just flat wrong in that a tracker poses no threat to scum.
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Post Post #525 (isolation #81) » Mon Jun 12, 2023 9:37 am

Post by Bingle »

Today is massclaim, I’m a real neighbor. There’s theoretically an optimal order for claims but we’re close enough to auto that I don’t actually care. We can narrow the town pretender to a 50/50, and we lim outside of that.
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Post Post #526 (isolation #82) » Mon Jun 12, 2023 9:40 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 524, Black wrote:
In post 521, Donempire wrote: So whoever was roleblocked is confirmed not scum.
Wow I'm a total idiot. I'm not sure why I didn't realize this

Kowah is town. I'm the RB and I blocked him N1
Theoretically kowah can still be scum if you are pretender.

Tracker results are also hard investigative.
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Post Post #536 (isolation #83) » Mon Jun 12, 2023 10:40 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 530, Donempire wrote: We could try something based on the role thats doubled, for example if there are two roleblocker claims then we just ask their night results and see if their target really got no result.
Depends on the role, but this is actually at a point where it is puzzleable.

Scum kinda got fucked on rand here, and the setup is very favorable to town on a D1 scum elim. A D1 scum pretender elim is just grossly in our favor. There are three roles that generate results: Tracker, RB, Checker, and a doctor that prevents kills. We should put a pin in wondering what results imply until all roles are claimed. Don't claim results, even if you think you have a hard guilty, until that's done.
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Post Post #539 (isolation #84) » Mon Jun 12, 2023 10:43 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 535, Doctor Drew wrote: Invis, are you actually awesome?
No, this is Awesome.
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Post Post #555 (isolation #85) » Mon Jun 12, 2023 3:32 pm

Post by Bingle »

1. Bingle - Neighbor, targeted Black
2. Doctor Drew Doc, targeted Someone
3. Invisibility, Tracker Kowahbunga -> Nowhere
4. Donempire Neighbor, targeted Bingle
5. Black, RB targeted Kowah
8. Kowahbunga, Tracker Black -> Vizzy
9. Appearance, Loyal Checker - Vizzy

Invisibility clears Kowah.
Appearance clears Vizzy.
Kowah is probably pretender.

That leaves 5 unconfirmed players.

We're not yeeting App, Doc, Vizzy, Black, Kowah today.

Doc Drew targets Vizzy, as a conftown cop.
Vizzy confs Appearance.
Appearance Confs Black
Black confs whichever of me/Don isn't today's lim.

Tomorrow, if Vizzy dies, it's either doc or rb who broke it, and we'll have an invest on rb. If anyone else dies, we should have enough clears to finish the PoE. If no one dies we can no lim for more info.
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Post Post #557 (isolation #86) » Mon Jun 12, 2023 4:34 pm

Post by Bingle »

Should probably have someone sanity check me, but that should be autowin.
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Post Post #564 (isolation #87) » Tue Jun 13, 2023 2:48 am

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What are you talking about, don is the scummiest neighbor I’ve ever had. Keeps shading me for not knowing Drake lyrics.
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Post Post #565 (isolation #88) » Tue Jun 13, 2023 2:57 am

Post by Bingle »

Drew becomes defacto lim if everyone else is confed. Can’t conf him over you/me because we need his action to keep vizzy alive.

If black blocks doc and kills vizzy that creates a 1v1 between black and doc, which is solved by appearance on black. There is a loophole here for black scum to win by killing appearance, but we should be able to close that with a slight rework.

Vizzy on black, appearance on drew should work I think?
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Post Post #566 (isolation #89) » Tue Jun 13, 2023 3:09 am

Post by Bingle »

I need to chart this out on a piece of paper, which slightly difficult due to travel, but I think limming today might lead to a forced 1v1 in several cases.

I haven’t looked at No lims, but this might well be one of the rare instances where we can satisfy kowahs lack of bloodlust with optimal play.
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Post Post #567 (isolation #90) » Tue Jun 13, 2023 3:25 am

Post by Bingle »

I’m a little bit annoyed with myself that I didn’t see how problematic a d1 maf pretender lik was for the setup, btw. A roughly 5% that puts town in just off of autowin N1 is a big oversight. Considering if we’d had the ability/desire to be a little more proactive with a plans we could be in actual autowin for sure… well. Not a great place.

My best suggestion atp would be to add one pretender to the role pool and make it a semi-open.
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Post Post #570 (isolation #91) » Tue Jun 13, 2023 5:55 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 569, Black wrote:
In post 567, Bingle wrote: I’m a little bit annoyed with myself that I didn’t see how problematic a d1 maf pretender lik was for the setup, btw. A roughly 5% that puts town in just off of autowin N1 is a big oversight. Considering if we’d had the ability/desire to be a little more proactive with a plans we could be in actual autowin for sure… well. Not a great place.

My best suggestion atp would be to add one pretender to the role pool and make it a semi-open.
I don't understand this and at this point I'm too afraid to ask
Can’t post on the setup page cause it’s intrinsically linked to ongoing games discussion. Basically revision notes for gif to look at if he wants to tweak the setup.
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Post Post #571 (isolation #92) » Tue Jun 13, 2023 5:57 am

Post by Bingle »

Theoretically if I went to md to make the post it could be cheating because I’d be confirming that my thoughts aren’t about this game and thus more trustworthy than a rando posting in the game who would have a stake in the outcome, although in this case I think it would probably be ignored if I did that.
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Post Post #572 (isolation #93) » Tue Jun 13, 2023 5:59 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 568, Black wrote:
In post 565, Bingle wrote: Drew becomes defacto lim if everyone else is confed. Can’t conf him over you/me because we need his action to keep vizzy alive.

If black blocks doc and kills vizzy that creates a 1v1 between black and doc, which is solved by appearance on black. There is a loophole here for black scum to win by killing appearance, but we should be able to close that with a slight rework.

Vizzy on black, appearance on drew should work I think?
I'll tell you right now I'm probably going to block Drew. I think he's the most likely to be scum here. If I die overnight then it should be fairly obvious who did it
Blocking drew if we’re in autowin is literally gamethrowing, fwiw. At this point, the town wincondition is get to a point where we have fewer mechanically unconfirmed players than eliminations left to make.
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Post Post #574 (isolation #94) » Tue Jun 13, 2023 6:06 am

Post by Bingle »

Yeah, I should be able to do a case map when I get to the hotel, but basically the goal is to take each individual slot and ask “How do they win if scum?” And then try to make a plan where for every slot the answer is “they can’t.”

The reason I lost my tm game was because I couldn’t get every slot to that unwinnable state and bet the farm on the wrong player, but here I think we can make literally every slot impossible to win as scum without gambling on anything other than people not outright lying about their actions as town.
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Post Post #577 (isolation #95) » Tue Jun 13, 2023 7:43 am

Post by Bingle »

Vizzy doesn’t get results in the case of a no kill. Only appearance does. And appearance isn’t conf yet.
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Post Post #588 (isolation #96) » Tue Jun 13, 2023 1:46 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 578, Donempire wrote: Appearance not being conf doesn't mean his results have a chance of being wrong.
His innocent results can't be wrong. One of our lose paths involves a 1v1 between Appearance and literally any non conftown at this point.
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Post Post #589 (isolation #97) » Tue Jun 13, 2023 2:13 pm

Post by Bingle »

Vizzy on Appearance.
Appearance on Black.
Doc on Vizzy.
Black on me.

Appearance checks black to prevent Black from fake guilty shenanigans involving blocking Appearance.
Vizzy seeing Appearance target means that Black and Appearance are both town. If they're not, the action fails.
Vizzy not seeing Appearance target means that there is scum between Black and Appearance.
Vizzy getting no result means Black is scum.
Vizzy dying means there is scum between Doc and Black.
I am town if there is a kill.
If anyone other than Vizzy dies, there is scum in Doc/Don and we have two eliminations.
If there is no kill, we have three eliminations and three unconfirmed slots (me/Don/Doc) at worst or a 1v1 at best.

Autowin if everyone agrees to the action plan.
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Post Post #592 (isolation #98) » Tue Jun 13, 2023 2:59 pm

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I mean... go for it? It can't hurt anything.
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Post Post #594 (isolation #99) » Tue Jun 13, 2023 3:21 pm

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In post 576, Donempire wrote: Kinda cringe to win a game through shoddy design but what can you do.
The setup design isn't
that
shoddy fwiw. It's fine outside of the instance where both there is a scum pretender and said pretender is flipped D1. The PC elim was clutch for the town win here.

It's just that this setup has an unfortunate snowball effect baked in where scum can be backed into a corner after a single lim, which is, yeah, not good.
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Post Post #595 (isolation #100) » Tue Jun 13, 2023 3:21 pm

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In post 593, Doctor Drew wrote: So......no elim today?
No elim today.
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Post Post #601 (isolation #101) » Wed Jun 14, 2023 1:24 am

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VOTE: No lime

My guesses for scum are appearance and black.
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Post Post #604 (isolation #102) » Wed Jun 14, 2023 10:28 am

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I’ve always wanted scurvy.
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Post Post #624 (isolation #103) » Fri Jun 16, 2023 12:18 am

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Stop voting until vizzy checks in. Black is unconfirmed atm.
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Post Post #625 (isolation #104) » Fri Jun 16, 2023 12:21 am

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In post 624, Bingle wrote: Stop voting until vizzy checks in. Black is unconfirmed atm.
Top page?
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Post Post #626 (isolation #105) » Fri Jun 16, 2023 12:37 am

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Btw, the hole appearance mentioned wasn’t a hole. We were still in auto from there.
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Post Post #631 (isolation #106) » Fri Jun 16, 2023 2:22 am

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Black is now confirmed town. We can lim don and drew and be guaranteed the win.
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Post Post #632 (isolation #107) » Fri Jun 16, 2023 2:23 am

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VOTE: drew
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Post Post #633 (isolation #108) » Fri Jun 16, 2023 2:24 am

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In post 627, Invisibility wrote: Appearance visited Bladk :P
TBC, appearance could not have visited black if she was scum. Appearance’s action would have failed and been a no target result.
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Post Post #644 (isolation #109) » Fri Jun 16, 2023 6:28 am

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In post 640, Donempire wrote:
In post 623, Doctor Drew wrote:
In post 622, Donempire wrote: Or let's just get this over with and get em outta here

VOTE: Doctor Dre
Doctor Dre is a studio gangster.

Doctor Drew is OG.

Is this how it has to go down?

VOTE: Don
You're right, but who do people think of when they hear OG, Dre or Drew?

Clout is everything man, dre got his name heard. You need better pr people for sure.
I think of Og, Caveman Gangster Extraordinaire. Sometimes it pays to live thousands of years before your competition.

FWIW, I voted doc because there was already a vote there. Jason repping out because he didn’t want to handle a game that was virtually unwinnable would make sense. It’d be disappointing, but it would make sense.
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Post Post #652 (isolation #110) » Fri Jun 16, 2023 3:36 pm

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You are limmed drew. I assume don is conceding because there is literally nothing he can do to stop the town win.

Sorry don. In worrying about the town who ran into scum randing all of the investigators I forgot about the scumteam running into a d1 scum pretender lim, and provided gif with subpar review work. I don’t know if you would’ve pulled it off anyway, in that I think there were some pretty obviously town players left, but being in a mechanical loss D2 is pretty sucky.
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Post Post #653 (isolation #111) » Fri Jun 16, 2023 3:41 pm

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In post 649, Donempire wrote:
In post 644, Bingle wrote:
I think of Og, Caveman Gangster Extraordinaire. Sometimes it pays to live thousands of years before your competition.
I’d argue that he was just on a whole other level at fighting the police, since they didn’t even dare exist until well after he was dead. Comparatively, both Dre and Drew’s struggles are like a drunk trying and failing to punch their way out of a wet paper bag.
Since cavemen have no laws or cops, Og couldn't be a gangster, making him a fake ass clout chaser. Besides even if he was, his musics very overrated and primitive.
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Post Post #654 (isolation #112) » Fri Jun 16, 2023 3:41 pm

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Borked that quote hard.
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Post Post #665 (isolation #113) » Mon Jun 19, 2023 2:19 am

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I’ll double check that gif didn’t mod error, but yeah that’s not at all how loyal works.
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Post Post #666 (isolation #114) » Mon Jun 19, 2023 2:25 am

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Also, fwiw the mod has to be able to answer “how would this interaction resolve” for it to be an open. It’s not a thing that can be open to interpretation or a thing that the mod can’t answer.
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Post Post #685 (isolation #115) » Mon Jun 19, 2023 12:11 pm

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GIF confirmed he didn't mod error.

VOTE: Donempire
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Post Post #689 (isolation #116) » Tue Jun 20, 2023 6:35 am

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It just came across as grammatically correct to me.
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Post Post #695 (isolation #117) » Tue Jun 20, 2023 1:19 pm

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I mean... I explicitly asked GIF if he would have resolved a loyal role as having visited for tracking purposes and he responded with no.

A tracker seeing a loyal role visiting black means that black has to be town, mechanically. So if this was BlackScum and there weren't mod errors, town had to lie about results somewhere.
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Post Post #696 (isolation #118) » Tue Jun 20, 2023 2:15 pm

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*A loyal role targeting scum
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Post Post #701 (isolation #119) » Wed Jun 21, 2023 7:05 am

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I mean, it is very fair to say that I stopped playing mafia when I realized that the game was broken, and I take at least as much blame there as GIF given that it was my advice that swung this into the townsided roll we got. This was the second worst rand for scum and the worst possible D1, but I fully agree that the setup as a whole would be improved by adding in uncertainty.

WRT your neighborhood case, it was flawed in that any deviation from normal operations of a role in an open absolutely has to be made public. Your argument would have made absolute sense in the theme queue, but here it was just not a thing. I respected the effort and the attempt, and honestly if you were scum it would’ve made it even worse that you were losing to a mistake that I see as my own. But in all honesty, I began counting this game as a los in the only metric I care about on D2 (quality of my contribution to the game). In hindsight, I kind of wish we’d gentleman’s agreement’d to not act after D2 to rebalance the scales, because I do think the game had a lot of potential to be a good game of actual mafia.
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Post Post #709 (isolation #120) » Wed Jun 21, 2023 2:14 pm

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Maybe the real Invisibility was the friends we made along the way.

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