Open 879: Fire and More Fire [game over]

[osuka]

in that case, pagetop?

[Ausuka]

Oh lord is the rest of the game going to be signal theories

[Ausuka]

How would black even know to signal to invisibility!!! Why would invisibility take her voting the same person as a signal!!!! This makes no sense!!!!

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: Firebringer ruined the economy

Just a heads up, there was a crazy wind storm in my city last night and power is out everywhere. It must have messed with my phone service provider because I can't even connect to 5G at my apartment. There are estimates my power will be out for several days so I'm not really sure what to expect here. Either way I'll catch up when I'm able to get internet at home

Jeez, hope you're okay Black!

Merlyn goes in my locktown bin because she's the only person that cares about me

VOTE: Firebringer

if you pick out all the capitalized letters in Firebringer's posts it spells out

"I am the scum"

VOTE: Firebringer

Invis votes FB as an RVS vote, then follows with seemingly jokey votes on Cook and Towwl. I feel like Invis was gauging the reactions to the votes.

Black votes FB, then Invis basically immediately follows suit but includes the bolded part.....which is the biggest signal to me.

I feel Invis strongly feels like Black's vote on FB was a signal to them(them being Invis), and Black's response to just run FB no matter what was the response that makes me feel that Black was picking up what Invis was putting down.

This is why I have been a bit vague with Black, seems more clear that Invis was signalling more than Black.....but am fine with a Black vote as well.

Pre Edit: Eww Black, you should I don't do mech talk lol

And FB, it is ok....the bad people will be killed soon.

This is.... incredibly contrived. It only makes sense if Invisibility were to already know Black is scum, but then there'd be no need for signaling. And sure, as I said before, scum has an advantage over Town in hunting the other pair, but voting the same person in early D1 is just... not enough.

Plus, the "I am the scum" thing is being attributed to Firebringer, so like. That's a few too many lines to expect someone to read between and come away with the correct conclusion.

[osuka]

“incredibly contrived” just about describes doc’s play style. he’ll get deep down into some fucking rabbit hole about how everything is connected and this one specific choice of word is what neatly ties everything together, except it’s not neat, the ties are about to come loose, and half of “everything” was somewhere else to begin with.

but here’s the kicker: it usually makes logical sense for the most part, and he’s right a surprising fraction of the time when you consider just the caliber of the theories coming your way. you’d almost never expect that sort of theory to be right, but he nails it on the head more often than he should be able to

[Radical Rat]

Am I to take this as you agreeing with him?

[Doctor Drew]

How would black even know to signal to invisibility!!! Why would invisibility take her voting the same person as a signal!!!! This makes no sense!!!!

This is more about Invis signalling than Black, this is why I was being vague with Black about my reasoning for my vote on Invis, I wanted to gauge her reaction about if she knew why i was voting where I was voting. And signalling isn't going to make sense if you aren't the target of said signal.

VOTE: Firebringer ruined the economy

Just a heads up, there was a crazy wind storm in my city last night and power is out everywhere. It must have messed with my phone service provider because I can't even connect to 5G at my apartment. There are estimates my power will be out for several days so I'm not really sure what to expect here. Either way I'll catch up when I'm able to get internet at home

Jeez, hope you're okay Black!

Merlyn goes in my locktown bin because she's the only person that cares about me

VOTE: Firebringer

if you pick out all the capitalized letters in Firebringer's posts it spells out

"I am the scum"

VOTE: Firebringer

Invis votes FB as an RVS vote, then follows with seemingly jokey votes on Cook and Towwl. I feel like Invis was gauging the reactions to the votes.

Black votes FB, then Invis basically immediately follows suit but includes the bolded part.....which is the biggest signal to me.

I feel Invis strongly feels like Black's vote on FB was a signal to them(them being Invis), and Black's response to just run FB no matter what was the response that makes me feel that Black was picking up what Invis was putting down.

This is why I have been a bit vague with Black, seems more clear that Invis was signalling more than Black.....but am fine with a Black vote as well.

Pre Edit: Eww Black, you should I don't do mech talk lol

And FB, it is ok....the bad people will be killed soon.

This is.... incredibly contrived. It only makes sense if Invisibility were to already know Black is scum, but then there'd be no need for signaling. And sure, as I said before, scum has an advantage over Town in hunting the other pair, but voting the same person in early D1 is just... not enough.

Plus, the "I am the scum" thing is being attributed to Firebringer, so like. That's a few too many lines to expect someone to read between and come away with the correct conclusion.

Saying 'I am scum' is not reading between the lines. That is the signal right there, and the fact that you take it as clearly just being about FB, means it worked on many levels, they didn't want you to figure it out.....only their buddy. And if I am correct, of course Invis has no idea who the other two scum is besides their hood buddy, that is the whole point about trying to signal, reach out to your other buddies without making it obvious to others that you are.

And again, it may not even mean Black is scum( though I kinda feel like it is), but that Invis was clearly signalling here.

[Radical Rat]

A signal also has to be visible to work though, like. I guess you saw it as a signal, so if you're in the other scum pair, mission accomplished, but I think if you're trying to send a message like that, and you don't know who the other scum are, you're not going to want to frame it as an accusation of a third party.

Maybe if the accusation in question were some super weird thing, or maybe if the one being accused is the intended recipient of the signal, this could be more plausible, but like. Look at the logic in play here.

1. Invisibility has to interpret Black voting Firebringer as Black being scum. This seems like a large leap to make already, especially since Firebringer could be scum also/instead.

2. Invisibility has to believe Black will be looking for signals from the other Mafia. This is a reasonable expectation, no issues here.

3. Invisibility has to believe Black will ignore the context of the vote and accusation of Firebringer and focus only on the specific phrasing of "I am the scum." The problem here is that it looks way too much like an accusation Town would reasonably make, and if Invisibility gets unlucky and Firebringer is scum, with or without Black, this could actually PROVOKE a kill instead, which... defeats the whole purpose of signaling.

So, there is precisely one scenario where I think this kind of signal MIGHT make sense, and that's if one of the pairs is Firebringer/Invisibility. In this scenario, Invisibility has exclusive knowledge of Firebringer's alignment and vice versa, so there's no need to fear accidentally provoking a kill, and it's possible to interpret the attempted message to be "Leave Firebringer alone, he's on our side," but then that doesn't really gel with the way Invisibility seems to be properly on board with it. Which could theoretically be faked of course, but if it is believed too much by either Town or the other Mafia, it's basically suicidal to attempt this level of shenanigans.

TL;DR: Either Invisibility's on some 5D Chess shit, or you're reading way too much into this

[Datisi]

vote count 1.05

with 15 votes in play, it takes 8 to make a decision. day 1 ends in (expired on 2023-06-28 17:00:00).

yeet

Doctor Drew [5]:

Umlaut, Radical Rat, osuka, Merlyn, Black

Bingle [3]:

Ausuka, Firebringer, Invisibility

Cook [2]:

The Bulge, Bellaphant

Invisibility [1]:

Doctor Drew

Ausuka [1]:

Bingle

Merlyn [1]:

Meuh

not voting [2]:

Skygazer, Cook

mod notes

this is a mod note.

flavour

[Black]

“incredibly contrived” just about describes doc’s play style. he’ll get deep down into some fucking rabbit hole about how everything is connected and this one specific choice of word is what neatly ties everything together, except it’s not neat, the ties are about to come loose, and half of “everything” was somewhere else to begin with.

but here’s the kicker: it usually makes logical sense for the most part, and he’s right a surprising fraction of the time when you consider just the caliber of the theories coming your way. you’d almost never expect that sort of theory to be right, but he nails it on the head more often than he should be able to

I can relate to this tbh

[Black]

RR puts into words how I feel in 357. Invis could be scum but I don't think she was signaling, and I definitely wasn't

[The Bulge]

i was wondering when drew would show up

[The Bulge]

i havent read anything but i saw something about signal theories on this page and i think that's most likely a big waste of time to pursue

tho i have seen it once in a traitor game, idr which but it was ballsy af and not very subtle and i only noticed it from the dead pt

[The Bulge]

p3 bingle town radrat scum

[Umlaut]

To answer the "why Merlyn" questions:

I recognize everyone but Meuh and Cook

VOTE: Meuh no one recognizes them, must mean something

This isn't a big deal but for some reason I can't express it seemed more "forced" than the other random votes, and also a bit like picking on the player you perceived as least experienced.

she does not know laughing crying emoji

VOTE: invis gatekeeping knowledge

Really dumb reason for a vote and looks like going through the motions of voting for things you think you ought to find suspect instead of things that actually are.

Yooooooooooo the mindmeld is crazy, Umlaut town

This mindmeld feels weird. A forced RVS vote and both missing the joke in 83. Could be a pocketing attempt from Meuh

Fwiw I'm wary of a pocket there too. For now there's nothing else that bugs me about Meuh though so I think that's just natural paranoia.

Invis votes FB as an RVS vote, then follows with seemingly jokey votes on Cook and Towwl. I feel like Invis was gauging the reactions to the votes.

Black votes FB, then Invis basically immediately follows suit but includes the bolded part.....which is the biggest signal to me.

I feel Invis strongly feels like Black's vote on FB was a signal to them(them being Invis), and Black's response to just run FB no matter what was the response that makes me feel that Black was picking up what Invis was putting down.

This is why I have been a bit vague with Black, seems more clear that Invis was signalling more than Black.....but am fine with a Black vote as well.

Pre Edit: Eww Black, you should I don't do mech talk lol

And FB, it is ok....the bad people will be killed soon.

This case seems really overwrought to me and prima facie implausible. Like... even granted that would be useful for Mafia to signal one another if they could find a way to do that... it's very hard

psychologically

to do so, and if they are even a little on the fence about it then I don't believe they do it, and I don't believe it's such a slam dunk case for doing so that they are sure it's a good idea this soon in the game.

[The Bulge]

For the record, while I do still consider this Mostly an RVS vote, I also don't take putting her at E-1 lightly, and have a small seed of reasoning behind it.

RR town woooooooooo

meta or some other reason?

[The Bulge]

No, in a different setup as a mafia traitor when it was confirmed that there was a mafia traitor, and slightly more protected by a layer of it not being immediately obvious because it relied on knowledge of the identities of the scum team.

Do you think there is no desire in scum to figure out who the other scum are to NOT lim/kill them?

i dont like this question

[The Bulge]

mechtalk is always such a bore, especially in multiball, and especially when it's d1 theorycrafting. d1 should be reserved for flashwagons and premature readslists and

cyberbullying

[The Bulge]

Skygazer can you scumhunt please I wanna townread you on vibes but I'm too smart to do that again

i've been hanging out w someone i have a crush on since the game has started

ooooo who is it

hm

[The Bulge]

Drew signaling scum.

i laughed

p11 bingle scum radrat town

[The Bulge]

VOTE: Bingle

[Black]

VOTE: Bingle

[Black]

I'll hop on this wagon. I got the chance to look over towwl's posts and I'm getting a similar vibe from him here that I got in our recent newbie game together. I think Drew can probably be town for now

[Bellaphant]

RR puts into words how I feel in 357. Invis could be scum but I don't think she was signaling, and I definitely wasn't

100% this. I've read the last few pages but it feels like white noise.

[Invisibility]

Bella you never explained why you suspected me and Umlaut