Micro 1085: Even/Odd Killers [GAME OVER]

[JasonWazza]

Votecount 2.1

sheepsaysmeep (1) - Roden

Not voting (7) - Merlyn, Datisi, sheepsaysmeep, fireisredsir, Deltabreedy, Donempire,

(expired on 2023-07-12 05:01:57) remain until day end

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to reach a majority.

[Roden]

Actually now that I think about it more, the SK would have another motive in killing Shea. If they took Cop immunity, they're set up to be in an amazing position if they manage to kill off the scum team ASAP and take full control of the NK. So if they actually did scum read Shea, it isn't a bad for them to kill him.

But I guess hitting scum that isn't Shea is still a better play. At least IMO, since aiming to kill Shea's partner last night and then voting out Shea today would've been optimal.

[Roden]

I notice stuff like this because its something I do a lot as scum, try to build narrative subtly with the way I'm describing things so that I don't have to push stuff just have others pick up on the negative framing I'm using and run with it.

It's very effective.

Lol

Guess we get to play "was this WIFOM or an honest admission" today

[Roden]

its also worth noting: re all the mech talk.

It is definitely still good for town to hit SK today but it is especially good for scum to hit SK today because then they direct all the nightkills.

So I think its worth looking into who was a little bit too enthusiastic about refuting the "we shouldn't try to hit sk today" point.

I feel like this was genuine spew and that his partner doesn't fit the criteria he's describing here. I doubt that anyone who was pushing to hit the SK yesterday is the second mafia, and that his buddy either had no comment or tried to blend in by doubting our attempts to hit the SK.

Unless I missed something, I think Don fits the bill the most here.

It's getting late so I'll read through their ISO more thoroughly tomorrow.

[sheepsaysmeep]

im so good at forum mafia

[sheepsaysmeep]

I don't think SK was Cop hunting, this was very likely a fear kill. Shea was basically set up to take center stage today, and I don't think it makes any sense for the SK to disrupt that unless they were afraid that a town!Shea could thrive and turn the attention back onto them.

VOTE: Sheep

Merlyn is hard cleared from being Shea's scum buddy IMO. And the Shea kills makes no sense from her position if she were SK since he was defending her all game.

don’t think it’s a kill I make there

shea is someone I would’ve tried to wagon today + I would not really have been scared of getting limmed today

I agree merlyn is town. almost never w/w with shea, the w/w theories were goofy

[sheepsaysmeep]

the flips make me feel like my worldview has been very good. it has been reinforced.

I would say the last mafia is almost always in delta/don

still no clue how to find an SK

[fireisredsir]

huh okay neat

should have trusted my initial instinct i guess

[sheepsaysmeep]

I guess roden could have SK vibes for all the out-the-gate NKA about the SK kill that I don't really jibe with

idfk lmfao let's just kill the mafia first and then deal with it

[sheepsaysmeep]

VOTE: deltabreedy

[fireisredsir]

i am surprised scum shea ignores me there

i feel like if anything it could be intentional to try to set up some sort of false association? idk with who though

[Donempire]

I had a suspicion shea was scum, good thing i didn't have to prove that today. I believe this also makes apparent my point of letting sk live yesterday. Right now we have an acceptable outcome, a town wagon we can do (relative) analysis on, and a scum nk we can use to retroactively find his buddy.

With the other scum out of the picture, i believe our focus now should be on the sk instead of scum today. Reasoning being like i said yesterday i believe sk chose investigation immunity, and like roden mentioned not aiming for the cop (which i only half agree with, because i think shea had some tells that could be attributed as softing cop) should be a testament to that. And i think our main source on sk would be to analyze the appearance wagon.

Firstly i owed datisi a fire case, and i have another game to catch up on, so i will make a clear wagon analysis after that.

[fireisredsir]

Actually now that I think about it more, the SK would have another motive in killing Shea. If they took Cop immunity, they're set up to be in an amazing position if they manage to kill off the scum team ASAP and take full control of the NK. So if they actually did scum read Shea, it isn't a bad for them to kill him.

But I guess hitting scum that isn't Shea is still a better play. At least IMO, since aiming to kill Shea's partner last night and then voting out Shea today would've been optimal.

this requires a somewhat surprising amount of confidence that shea would be a main target for the lim today

idk if i would necessarily expect that to be the case

[fireisredsir]

the flips make me feel like my worldview has been very good. it has been reinforced.

I would say the last mafia is almost always in delta/don

still no clue how to find an SK

i am also pretty much here

[Datisi]

I notice stuff like this because its something I do a lot as scum, try to build narrative subtly with the way I'm describing things so that I don't have to push stuff just have others pick up on the negative framing I'm using and run with it.

It's very effective.

Lol

Guess we get to play "was this WIFOM or an honest admission" today

well, last game he said "i'm scum with vp baltar btw" on like page 3, and he was scum with vp baltar, so...

agreed merlyn is most likely town, i don't see her partnered with shea and i don't know why she'd kill him. it does make me wonder why nobody really cared about my push on her though, other scum could've easily jumped onto it. i'll actually reread once ms starts being less laggy.

don't really think that sheep is mafia, but i could see him as the SK. shea also specifically said that he thought sheep is SK, which. lol.

[Datisi]

it's kinda annoying because i wanna look for the SK with the nightkill, but also i don't know if shea was killed because SK thought shea was gonna push them to die, because they thought shea was scum and wanted to start getting rid of mafia, or because they got cop vibes or something?

[Donempire]

I think it's a mix of 1 and 3, because i also felt like shea was softing cop in some of her posts. Maybe she was building up to a moment where she would have to cc the cop in case they found her or her scum buddy, and it just backfired. We can just assume at this point, and last time i assumed we limmed a townie, so maybe we should work with what we know first. What we know is that sk knew appearance wasn't sk.

[Datisi]

not to like, copy other people's thoughts or anything, but delta/don does seem like a good guess for the remaining mafia. shea jumped onto appearance as the delta wagon was building, which could be partnery trying to divert from it. but delta did jump on right after him so maybe not?

donempire is kinda uh. around the time he started the wagon on fire, which i thought could also fit being shea's partner (in a world where neither mafia is in immediate danger, building wagons is good) but ctrl+f'ng "shea" and "status" in his iso is ???

51 votes for shea, 122 explains why he doesn't like him. later on they have a kinda negative interaction in 254

after the faux vote on me, he calls shea town in 461 for ??? reasons, and the rest of the day there's not much interactions there

and entering the day with "haha i totally felt like shea was scum, good thing he's dead lol" is uh

VOTE: donempire

i'm good to start by looking here

also i'm not sure if there is any difference between voting out an SK today or voting out mafia today. like, the end result of either would be pretty much the same?

[Datisi]

I think it's a mix of 1 and 3, because i also felt like shea was softing cop in some of her posts. Maybe she was building up to a moment where she would have to cc the cop in case they found her or her scum buddy, and it just backfired. We can just assume at this point, and last time i assumed we limmed a townie, so maybe we should work with what we know first. What we know is that sk knew appearance wasn't sk.

shea is a guy

[fireisredsir]

ms still so slow ill look at stuff later

my initial thought is i think if we can then flipping the sk is probably better bc finding the mafia is probably easier due to having associatives

and people can be cleared as non maf or guiltied whereas sk may be immune

[fireisredsir]

that said im not really sure how to hunt sk and i kinda have a feeling they may be in the people that im otherwise townreading which i don't really think i could bring myself to want to flip today so ehh

[Donempire]

also i'm not sure if there is any difference between voting out an SK today or voting out mafia today. like, the end result of either would be pretty much the same?

It wouldn't be as gamechanging as limming mafia over sk d1, as should be apparent sk did more good than harm and even a dead scum admitted an sk lim was favorable, but still sk has a few advantages that scum doesn't have here.

First is the bonus ability they picked, if they picked bulletproof it shouldn't matter, if they picked invest immunity however that locks out the cop from ever finding him, and worse if he invests him like that he might even clear him. This is a theoretical problem, and hopefully the sk didn't pick invest immunity, but no reason to risk this.

Second problem is kind of a continuation of the first point, and that is that scum will be easier to find through association with shea, whereas as sk can just take the role of a killing vt they will be much harder to find later on, but for today we can use the appearance wagon and analyse how sk would position themselves there to possibly find them.

[Donempire]

I think it's a mix of 1 and 3, because i also felt like shea was softing cop in some of her posts. Maybe she was building up to a moment where she would have to cc the cop in case they found her or her scum buddy, and it just backfired. We can just assume at this point, and last time i assumed we limmed a townie, so maybe we should work with what we know first. What we know is that sk knew appearance wasn't sk.

shea is a guy

She-a

[Donempire]

I do feel like either way our main sources are gonna have to be the appearance lim. Only sk knew that appearance was, at the very least not sk if possibly scummy, and if we go off the possibility that they thought appearance was vt we can find sk from there.

[Donempire]

Also