Micro 1085: Even/Odd Killers [GAME OVER]

[Donempire]

Thanks for pagetop mates

[fireisredsir]

I do feel like either way our main sources are gonna have to be the appearance lim. Only sk knew that appearance was, at the very least not sk if possibly scummy, and if we go off the possibility that they thought appearance was vt we can find sk from there.

im not sure why sk would think appearance was vt rather than scum or possibly just not caring what he was

i thought he was more likely to be scum than sk personally so i could imagine sk thinking he could be scum

[Merlyn]

I had a suspicion shea was scum, good thing i didn't have to prove that today. I believe this also makes apparent my point of letting sk live yesterday.

You were making that argument while saying Appearance was the likely SK and thus we should let Appearance live while we look for scum. If you had a suspicion Shea was scum why didn't you act on it?

also i'm not sure if there is any difference between voting out an SK today or voting out mafia today. like, the end result of either would be pretty much the same?

It wouldn't be as gamechanging as limming mafia over sk d1, as should be apparent sk did more good than harm and even a dead scum admitted an sk lim was favorable, but still sk has a few advantages that scum doesn't have here.

First is the bonus ability they picked, if they picked bulletproof it shouldn't matter, if they picked invest immunity however that locks out the cop from ever finding him, and worse if he invests him like that he might even clear him. This is a theoretical problem, and hopefully the sk didn't pick invest immunity, but no reason to risk this.

Second problem is kind of a continuation of the first point, and that is that scum will be easier to find through association with shea, whereas as sk can just take the role of a killing vt they will be much harder to find later on, but for today we can use the appearance wagon and analyse how sk would position themselves there to possibly find them.

I feel like this argument is kind of pointless and also...I'm not sure it makes sense. Your argument is that you didn't want to lim who you thought was SK D1 bc...SK would be much harder to find later on? Yeah, that's enough weirdness for a vote VOTE: Donempire

[Merlyn]

it's kinda annoying because i wanna look for the SK with the nightkill, but also i don't know if shea was killed because SK thought shea was gonna push them to die, because they thought shea was scum and wanted to start getting rid of mafia, or because they got cop vibes or something?

Yeah, I get it, I'm not sure what SK posts look like in any of the scenarios. I'm hoping that this is a role that can be caught the same way maf can, through inconsistency of reads vs actions

[Donempire]

You're putting words in my mouth Merlyn. The situation changed from d1 going into d2. When i believed appearance was sk it was easier to have him around to potentially kill scum - ergo, what happened today - than lim him and gain little info from a scum lim. Now not only is letting anyonse live pointless seeing as there are 2 scum total left, meaning crosskill is only possible if we elim a townie AND sk chose invest proof, limming sk today makes more sense compared to yesterday. I'm not changing my goal, my goal was to have sk kill a scum, and i succeeded. Now that it's not possible it's time to hunt the scum who's more dangerous. Sk was always harder to find, but appearance changed the dynamics of the mech solve.

I had my reasons for not pushing shea, mostly rl stuff meant i couldn't afford the time to do a back and forth with him, and also i thought and still think fire is scummier.

Overall all your points are surface level and i don't understand that vote. What do you think i am if i'm scum? Also OMGUS.

VOTE: Merlyn

[Merlyn]

That was a pretty intense reaction to a pressure vote

[Donempire]

Doesn't really matter what your intentions arw if rhe points you out forth are nonsensical. Now i did say omgus; but i'm not voting you because you voted me, i'm voting you because you're misrepresenting my arguments, and even your rebuttal doesn't make sense. Sk being hard to find doesn't matter if we believe we already found scum in appearance, and if you read what you typed out you would have realized that.

Which leads me to believe you're simply meaning to jump on a wagon that could gain traction and coast another day.

[Donempire]

Holy that grammar. It's too sunny here and i can't see what the fuck i'm typing out.

[Deltabreedy]

Did Merlyn coast yesterday?

[Donempire]

I would say so. Do you remember anything substantial from her?

[Merlyn]

Hey, if you feel that confident, let's do this, I'm happy to go first

[Donempire]

Do what? Are you proposing a double elimination?

[Merlyn]

Yup, let's go

[sheepsaysmeep]

forum mafia is weird

[Donempire]

...okay

I mean, assuming you're town here, why would you want to go first just so i would die tomorrow? Not only do you have no guarantee that i will get limmed but more than that i'm also town, and you have no way of knowing that even if you were scum. So what exactly are you planning with that proposition?

Regardless, i don't want a flash wagon out of principle since we would end up with no available wagon to analyze. I do think you can be sk but i still have the appearance wagon to analyze and shea to iso, so i'll hold off on a lim until at least that.

[Donempire]

I don't think SK was Cop hunting, this was very likely a fear kill. Shea was basically set up to take center stage today, and I don't think it makes any sense for the SK to disrupt that unless they were afraid that a town!Shea could thrive and turn the attention back onto them.

VOTE: Sheep

Merlyn is hard cleared from being Shea's scum buddy IMO. And the Shea kills makes no sense from her position if she were SK since he was defending her all game.

I disagree on both those points. Someone pointed out that shea literally gave away his scumbuddy in a game he was in "jokingly" - i doubt she'd be above buddying his scumbuddy.

As for merlyn sk, for that i think we have to consider why shea was killed in the first place. I'm going to make a more detailed post concerning this so just know that i think a sk!merlyn is also possible.

[Donempire]

its also worth noting: re all the mech talk.

It is definitely still good for town to hit SK today but it is especially good for scum to hit SK today because then they direct all the nightkills.

So I think its worth looking into who was a little bit too enthusiastic about refuting the "we shouldn't try to hit sk today" point.

I feel like this was genuine spew and that his partner doesn't fit the criteria he's describing here. I doubt that anyone who was pushing to hit the SK yesterday is the second mafia, and that his buddy either had no comment or tried to blend in by doubting our attempts to hit the SK.

Unless I missed something, I think Don fits the bill the most here.

It's getting late so I'll read through their ISO more thoroughly tomorrow.

You're missing that i was the one who started the mech talk in the first place.

[Datisi]

I disagree on both those points. Someone pointed out that shea literally gave away his scumbuddy in a game he was in "jokingly" - i doubt he'd be above buddying his scumbuddy.

i don't think it's *literally impossible* shea and merlyn are scum together, but it's also one of those really really improbably things. so i'd like to hear more about this other than "well he did this wacky stuff in a different game so maybe"

[Merlyn]

...okay

I mean, assuming you're town here, why would you want to go first just so i would die tomorrow? Not only do you have no guarantee that i will get limmed but more than that i'm also town, and you have no way of knowing that even if you were scum. So what exactly are you planning with that proposition?

Regardless, i don't want a flash wagon out of principle since we would end up with no available wagon to analyze. I do think you can be sk but i still have the appearance wagon to analyze and shea to iso, so i'll hold off on a lim until at least that.

right, raincheck then

[fireisredsir]

this is kinda what i talked about earlier when i was saying it's hard for me to read merlyn

especially the like... focus on her own votes. i think i naturally read it as scummy. maybe it's just a phrasing thing but when she says stuff like "this reason isn't enough to deserve a vote" or "this deserves a vote" or saying how her vote was only a pressure vote

she does it as town and it stood out to me then, but it's hard for me to really wrap my head around the mindset that produces those kind of thoughts. it feels like, a step removed from natural scumhunting

i think she probably is just town though

[fireisredsir]

i guess i think it probably still just is delta as maf

i think the initial burst of overconfidence and hard pushing ideas without much nuance, seeming like he just picked a place to push and went for it, followed by not really seeming to bring that energy of caring about solving the game to anything else, is pretty scummy

i would expect if that's just How He Is as town, he would be fighting to get people to see things the way he does and pushing his ideas more proactively into the thread

ik he was vla for a couple days in there but outside of that as well

[fireisredsir]

it's kinda annoying because i wanna look for the SK with the nightkill, but also i don't know if shea was killed because SK thought shea was gonna push them to die, because they thought shea was scum and wanted to start getting rid of mafia, or because they got cop vibes or something?

kinda curious what made you decide to post this

[JasonWazza]

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[JasonWazza]

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[JasonWazza]

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