Open 880 - Normal Idea Mafia - Postgame

[usesPython]

town doesnt defend STD like this here

We do when all signs point to you as mafia and the only case on STD is a gunsmith result that can be confounded

[Alianna]

3.06

Votecount 3.06

Save The Dragons (1): biancospino
Flavor Leaf (1): usesPython
usesPython (1): Flavor Leaf

Not Voting (6): Invisibility, camelCasedSnivy, BlueSnakelet, Save The Dragons, Infinity 324, Doctor Drew

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 votes to secure an execution.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2023-08-29 16:11:11).

[Flavor Leaf]

town doesnt defend STD like this here

We do when all signs point to you as mafia and the only case on STD is a gunsmith result that can be confounded

'all signs'

youre gonna look so dumb if youre town post game

[Flavor Leaf]

Snivy and I were pushing at STD before the guilty, and if anything, the guilty/claim made me lean back a little from it.

[Flavor Leaf]

you're like clearly trying to stop a roleblock from happening. like if you're town, you can just get me faded like tomorrow.

Snivy is actively already Loyal Checking me, I have a roleblock target.

Youre just insanely unaware of gamestate if town or the more likely, youre scum pushing an agenda.

[Flavor Leaf]

Like if I am not cleared tomorrow, and there's incredibly muddied water, fade me Day 4, BlueSnake said it best.

Otherwise, I'm getting cleared by Snivy with the Doc on Bianco, Babysitter on Snivy, Snivy on Me, Flavor on STD.

[Flavor Leaf]

Python is doing everything they can to not let Snivy clear me

[Flavor Leaf]

I am one of the few remaining misfades in this game, and if I'm not faded today, scum likely just lose that possibility.

If Python SK, STD Mafia, if Python is BP, he really doesnt fear STD, and wants him to be alive.

Python fade, block on STD Mafia makes us go to tomorrow likely without any night kills.

Do we think it's possible that both STD and Python are both town here? I think thats absolutely no chance.

So no matter what, by roleblocking STD tonight and fading Python, we likely only have 1 night kill max in the night, possibly zero if we're right on the money, or if someone wants to frame STD.

If someone wants to NOT KILL to frame STD, let them. he's a claimed backup cop with no cop in the game, that's totally fine.

[Flavor Leaf]

Also, an STD Mafia flip absolutely ruins Python's everything against me.

I bet if STD flipped Mafia, theyd start pushing me as SK even, which I think is a better case if they would do so, personally.

but yeah, that's probably another reason Python doesnt want STD to go through.

[Flavor Leaf]

Doctor Drew
biancospino
Infinity 324

if STD is faded, I have to block in these 3. There's no other options. Invisibility is conf town, Snivy needs to Loyal Check, and Blue Snake is a Friendly Neighbor confirmed.

I do not trust a block on Python after this, and I will not block them and give them clear potential this game as scum/SK.

I dont really want to block any of those 3, tbh.

So fade Python, Block STD is always the best play here.

[Infinity 324]

yep this is right but 4 (?) town roles that he could've claimed is not a lot

consider that the gunsmith innos are more likely to indicate they don't need to be gunsmithed

i don't get this part

[usesPython]

yep this is right but 4 (?) town roles that he could've claimed is not a lot

consider that the gunsmith innos are more likely to indicate they don't need to be gunsmithed

i don't get this part

Because they're gonna indicate they can do something confirmable so there's no point in checking them (e.g. Aureal fakeclaiming IC, Snivy trueclaiming Loyal Checker)

[Flavor Leaf]

the case is literally there's a guilty on him and drew happened to gunsmith exactly the backup cop is incredibly unlikely

There's more than one "shitty role" that does basically nothing and also gives gunsmith guilties

I can go look but I'm not sure whether or not this is relevant. like those other shitty roles aren't possibilities because std didn't claim them right?

maybe this is a weird monty hall thing and std is like 80% scum instead of like 95%

To put an extreme example, if there were 99 gunsmith guilty town roles and 1 gunsmith inno town role then a gunsmith guilty would be basically meaningless. The more roles STD could have claimed that explain the play the less likely we are to be in a "STD is scum because the only town!STD world requires incredibly low probability things to have occurred" world

yep this is right but 4 (?) town roles that he could've claimed is not a lot

gambler's fallacy, and it does line up with the 'shitty role' he was talking about.

if he's scum, i just block him and he gets faded tomorrow after I'm cleared.

We dont have to go NOW NOW NOW. It's okay to hold.

[usesPython]

Like there's a 40% chance of a "shitty town role" that's also a gunsmith guilty being in this game (1 - (19/20)^10)

[Infinity 324]

sigh I guess

flavor can you take a step back and let the conftowns read and give their thoughts

[Infinity 324]

@snakelet the only thing that makes me nervous about your plan is if bianco and std are the last scum, bianco can shoot snivy and we lose i think

[Flavor Leaf]

sigh I guess

flavor can you take a step back and let the conftowns read and give their thoughts

you mean my best bud Snivy, and the slot I was sheeping from like my first post in this game Blue. And then my other buddies Invisibility and Doctor Drew?

Sure. That's my posse.

But one condition: Python has to too, or I will have to come in and counter.

[Flavor Leaf]

@snakelet the only thing that makes me nervous about your plan is if bianco and std are the last scum, bianco can shoot snivy and we lose i think

STD gets blocked, though.

[usesPython]

@snakelet the only thing that makes me nervous about your plan is if bianco and std are the last scum, bianco can shoot snivy and we lose i think

STD gets blocked, though.

Doesn't matter because the condition is to shoot you if Snivy doesn't provide a green check, the single kill in a bianco/STD game would be enough to bring the game to 2/1/1 afterwards

[Flavor Leaf]

@snakelet the only thing that makes me nervous about your plan is if bianco and std are the last scum, bianco can shoot snivy and we lose i think

i can block bianco and you protect Snivy, but that lets STD kill, but at the expense of clearing Bianco.

[Infinity 324]

the problem is that only 1 kill doesn't clear anyone if a scum just no kills

[Flavor Leaf]

the problem is that only 1 kill doesn't clear anyone if a scum just no kills

thats a frame, that's still analyzable, and thats if Python isnt scum.

[Flavor Leaf]

they can also target the same person, and we wouldn't know.

but it can CLEAR someone if there are 2 kills if both scum live, and a kill if Python flips scum.

[usesPython]

they can also target the same person, and we wouldn't know.

but it can CLEAR someone if there are 2 kills if both scum live, and a kill if Python flips scum.

It's strictly optimal for one scum to holster because it gives no information from the roleblock and still leaves them in MeLo

[usesPython]

the problem is that only 1 kill doesn't clear anyone if a scum just no kills

thats a frame, that's still analyzable, and thats if Python isnt scum.

The point isn't to frame, it's to prevent the POE from getting tighter in a way that also doesnt extend the game (since we reach MeLo at the same time we would have reached ELo if scum didn't doublekill)