Open 887: Coalition of Frogs (Game Over)

[Ausuka]

Votecount 1.4

It is currently the Coalition Phase. With 9 players alive, it takes 5 votes to confirm a coalition. Day 1 ends in (expired on 2023-10-11 13:11:19).

Coalition Votes

Bellaphant, Datisi, Hero at Heart, Merlyn, implosion (1)

- Aristeia

Datisi

- Bellaphant

Bellaphant, Datisi, Hero at Heart, implosion

- Datisi

Bellaphant, Hero at Heart, implosion, Merlyn

- Doctor Drew

Bellaphant, Datisi, Hero at Heart, implosion

- Hero at Heart

Datisi, Doctor Drew, implosion, Merlyn

- Merlyn

Hero At Heart, implosion, Merlyn, TheHoldSteady

- TheHoldSteady

Not Voting (2)

- implosion, Malakittens

Elimination Votes

TheHoldSteady (2)

- Datisi, Hero at Heart

Aristeia (1)

- Bellaphant

Hero at Heart (1)

- TheHoldSteady

Not Voting (5)

- Aristeia, Doctor Drew, implosion, Malakittens, Merlyn

Flavour

Notes

HEAL: dats, drew

I can't accept this because it would put you at 6 coalition votes.

[Bellaphant]

so right now i'm kinda happy with a datisi/hero/merlyn/bella/implosion coalition.
is there anyone who actually SR's these people?

btw this is not intentional but the literal page 9 pagebottom is my solve which means it's perfect for a page 10 coalition, right?

eh, i'll wait at least 2 more days to see if there's a dramatic change...

I'm catching up but this is fine

[Bellaphant]

Drew over mer, maybe?

I have a lot of feelings about Ari, I'll be back when it's not the school run

[Hero at Heart]

what could i do to get you to see am town?

why does it even matter to you that I see you as town? you're already claiming that I'm mafia and pocketing you no?

pocketing = making me want to tr you
so i want to tr you

i am also not that confident now because unless you and THS are doing a level 1000 gambit, you can't be a scumteam together due to both agreeing to teams that don't include either. so this is making me feel like maybe i missed something, therefore trying to see if you are town.

[Hero at Heart]

I will make this as simple as possible for you Hero.

I do not believe you are town or that you will make a winning coalition if you were town in this current game state. I believe the odds to be quite low.

You scumread me - that is fine I am happy to be out of your coalition so that when it fails I do not get scapegoated.

I am offering to sheep you because you expressed that you are quite confident that you will make a winning coalition and win quite quickly.

I would be ecstatic to be proven wrong about everything that I currently think if your coalition succeeds and we win.

well i admit that if you were included in the team and it failed you would be my natural suspect, so i kinda understand that viewpoint lol

but am not scum. if you really think my team will fail, i am sincerely eager to hear what team you think will do better. last time you were asked for a team it included myself and datisi so that's why i am confused why you say you think it will fail.

[Bellaphant]

specifically, i didn't target bella at all, i just answered a question she had. you'd have to squint hard to read that as me focusing her, especially since that's probably my only interaction with her slot. and sure, scum *could* answer the question but are you saying that town would just ignore it? that's really ??? of you.

all three of your first three posts had something to do with bella and none of them really had any meaningful intent to sort her.

I'm not saying town would just ignore it, I said it's something scum are eager to do. I'm quite lazy and I rarely answer basic mech questions as town but I am more likely to as mafia because it establishes an interaction touchpoint.

Ok, in hindsight I read this as being more about me than it was, Ans I was sure Ari had also mentione me off hand to dats, but I can't find it now, so my first red flag maybe wasn't there.

I think for the first half of the Game, Ari's takes felt very much about Ari's perception of the general game, rather than trying to work with the thread. Like all the words about mala: it felt like busy work and also just a fairly 'safe' thing for scum to have an opinion on. Until the last few pages, I've not massively seen them get into questioning the wider game. For example, I mentioned I thoight they sr me, wasn't follow up. I said I sr them, they havent asked why, just a general acknowledgement that they are under pressure. Contrast that to implo, who when I flagged then asked a fairly nuanced question about my question.

[Aristeia]

after those two recent games i played with ari finished, every single post i read from her is *radio static sound* because i learned i do not know how to read her at all. can i still blame skitter for it? anyway

doc, bella, datisi all ping town to me so far

Why datisi
I’m opposite of that

i don't think scum mala ever does this unless to distance

can you talk more about this? i don't see how you're getting to that

you mean answering datisi about mala is busywork?

[Aristeia]

i didnt follow up with you when you sr me because i thought it was reasonable for you as town to sr me. i think you're town. i dont really see the need to engage with you about your sr of me.

[Hero at Heart]

ok i finally managed to flip off the tryhard switch in my brain, so yay!


now here's my not very tryhard thoughts about the game state:
i am in no way 100% sure that any one coalition will win the game. my current townreads are like, 99% sure that datisi is town, 90% sure that implo is town, 80% and 70% sure that bella and merlyn are town, respectively. which is not good enough to lock in a coalition. (0.99*0.9*0.8*0.7 is 0.498, or 49.8% which is less than half)
meanwhile drew is going back and forth between townie and scummy, kittens is not providing any meaningful content to sort her by, and aristeia is... well, she's giving me a hard time. so no, am not super confident.
i also don't think i tried to look super confident in the first place, saying "i wouldn't mind winning with an all town coalition by page 10" was supposed to be a joke akin to people saying "wow can't believe i caught scum on page 2". so not super serious. i am not really sure why both merlyn and aristeia took it so seriously tbh.

anyway i would really appreciate if aristeia woud try to work together because i think it's possible she's town and i just want to solve this game and win. and you said you are trying to be friendlier this game but tbh i'm just feeling hostility from you

[Hero at Heart]

also i like bella's last post so she can go up to like 85% town.

[Hero at Heart]

like ari, i feel it's slightly disingenuous for you to be willing to sheep a coalition you don't believe in, only so you can push me afterwards. but i don't think it's a scummy disingenuity, it's just really annoying kind of disingenuity, like you hate me for some reason which i don't get why.

sorry if this is considered inappropriate / personal / toxic / whatever

[Merlyn]

I think the

implication in 274 is that the only reason I have for not advocating for myself is that I am a wolf who is trying to push my partner into the coalition.

when I explain I do this in previous runs of the game as town and say this is not a reasonable conjecture -

you claim you didn't really even say it

.

you just feel slimy here to me.

I don't want to get hung up here on semantics, but the implication isn't that it's the ONLY reason. I agree that town could do it. I wanted to see if you had considered this one, particular reason that it might be good to be in the coalition. I wanted to hear your response once I'd shared it.

I was saying that I didn't say it was the ONLY reason, as a response to this particular thing you said:

and ascribing the only possible reason for someone not wanting to be in the coalition as "they are mafia who are pushing their partner in instead" is reductionist and absurd.

Because I found what you said here to be extreme and untrue.

You can throw insults if you want- and I do find being called slimy to be an insult and really ought to be against the rules- but it's just a game and I'm just trying to sort you because that's what I'm supposed to do in the game. There's no reason to get this mad over a scumread.

[Aristeia]

when you insinuate that I'm mafia with faulty reasoning and when I call that out you respond with "oh i'm not saying that, I'm just explaining why other people think you're scummy"

I think that's kind of slimy.

It's not a personal insult because mafia literally have to lie in order to win this game and looking for lies is literally what we have to do.

I am sorry you feel that I am insulting you and that my choice of words is unpleasant for you.

[Aristeia]

like ari, i feel it's slightly disingenuous for you to be willing to sheep a coalition you don't believe in, only so you can push me afterwards. but i don't think it's a scummy disingenuity, it's just really annoying kind of disingenuity, like you hate me for some reason which i don't get why.

sorry if this is considered inappropriate / personal / toxic / whatever

I don't understand how you can be confident your coalition will win and also be so hurt that I would be willing to punish you for failure.

The whole point of confidence is that you actually believe in your coalition winning.

That's why I said I found your confidence to feel very fake. Like you want to pretend you will be this person who will lead us to victory or whatever.

I hope I am wrong, that is why I am sheeping your coalition. Not because I want to lim you afterwards or be hostile towards you.

[Merlyn]

I'm just gonna stop responding on this topic to you, I don't think we can see eye to eye on it

[Aristeia]

There's no reason to get this mad over a scumread.

I am not mad. I am explaining why I believe you're mafia.

That is part of the game.

[Hero at Heart]

ari i have not yet had time to read pages 10-12 properly, can you link where merlyn said that she didn't actually say that?

that sounds like a good catch if it's real

[Aristeia]

I'm just gonna stop responding on this topic to you, I don't think we can see eye to eye on it

ok

[Hero at Heart]

like ari, i feel it's slightly disingenuous for you to be willing to sheep a coalition you don't believe in, only so you can push me afterwards. but i don't think it's a scummy disingenuity, it's just really annoying kind of disingenuity, like you hate me for some reason which i don't get why.

sorry if this is considered inappropriate / personal / toxic / whatever

I don't understand how you can be confident your coalition will win and also be so hurt that I would be willing to punish you for failure.

The whole point of confidence is that you actually believe in your coalition winning.

That's why I said I found your confidence to feel very fake. Like you want to pretend you will be this person who will lead us to victory or whatever.

I hope I am wrong, that is why I am sheeping your coalition. Not because I want to lim you afterwards or be hostile towards you.

i have literally explained that i am not confident like 2 posts above

[Merlyn]

I do agree that numbers wise it just makes sense to put yourself forward for the coalition bc if you know you're town then you can only be wrong about 4 spots rather than 5. The only person who can really relax and not need to advocate for themselves here is a wolf who is pushing a partner in there. There's no point in being worried that it will make you a target later if the coalition fails, you're getting heat now anyway.

i have two completed games of coalition;

viewtopic.php?t=91245
viewtopic.php?t=89428

I am town in both

I suggested not being in coalition in both

I ended up in the coalition in both

I personally do not enjoy being in the coalition unless I'm absolutely certain my coalition is winning.

I am nowhere near that level of certainty at present and might never be.

Saying that I am mafia for not wanting to be in the coalition because all townies would want to be in the coalition and ascribing the only possible reason for someone not wanting to be in the coalition as "they are mafia who are pushing their partner in instead" is reductionist and absurd.

Good think I didn't say that the was the only possible reason huh? I was pointing out that there's a good reason why folx would suspect you for not putting yourself in. You seemed to be saying the main reason you didn't is bc you'd get heat if it failed, and I was pointing out that you're already getting heat. This post kind of feels like an overreaction.

I appreciate the links, I'll read them if I have time

This is the post Ari is referring to.

[Hero at Heart]

i guess my posting came accross as more confident that i really was?
like yeah i admit, 99% certainty on datisi being town is pretty high, and i have stated i have pretty strong townreads, but i don't think i've really been all that "i will lead us to victory" like you're making me out to have done. if i did it was mainly as a joke and/or in response to you calling me a town mayor.

[Aristeia]

i have literally explained that i am not confident like 2 posts above

hero my principal hangup with you is that your expression early game that we would win on page 10 with some winning coalition felt fake to me.

I do not believe town!you is actually confident you can win on page 10 or very easily - this game doesn't feel that easy to me.

people think I'm wrong and you're like townie. fine that's why i offered to sheep you. because if i'm wrong and you are actually going to lead us to a quick and easy win i dont see why i should stand in the way of that and if i'm right and you're mafia it will make it easier to lim you when your coalition fails.

if you're town and not actually confident then shrug I guess i'll do something else.

[Hero at Heart]

go for it

[Aristeia]

HURT: all

[Aristeia]

explain your 99% datisi is town read