Open 887: Coalition of Frogs (Game Over)

[Hero at Heart]

why are all of the people i want in the coalition suddenly not online for the last 36 hours? Have they all been abducted by aliens?

actually

@mod can you please prod ari, implo, dats, and bella?

[Ausuka]

Prodding Aristeia, Bellaphant, Datisi and implosion

[Hero at Heart]

hi THS, sorry for ignoring these posts.
i've been kind of checked out from the game even though it might not look like that since i did post but i didn't actually look at anything thoroughly or try to analyze anything.

here's the way i think this is going to go:

i think hero's thought process seems very genuine and authentic and i actually got good vibes when we had that argument pages ago. i felt like i was talking to a town, not a scum.

i think the coalition is going to be wrong, and then he's going to lead a lim on me which is also going to be wrong.

what happens beyond then is out of my control

1. if i understood correctly, your sr on me was based on perceiving me as subtly trying to ride your wagon. does me not being as subtle aa you were expecting me to be change your viewpoint on me?
2. well, have you looked at the others? what did you see?

I already SAID you not being as subtle changed my viewpoint on you in 139 and I've BEEN looking at others in 188, 206, 235, 244, 245,

I do agree that numbers wise it just makes sense to put yourself forward for the coalition bc if you know you're town then you can only be wrong about 4 spots rather than 5. The only person who can really relax and not need to advocate for themselves here is a wolf who is pushing a partner in there. There's no point in being worried that it will make you a target later if the coalition fails, you're getting heat now anyway.

i have two completed games of coalition;

viewtopic.php?t=91245
viewtopic.php?t=89428

I am town in both

I suggested not being in coalition in both

I ended up in the coalition in both

I personally do not enjoy being in the coalition unless I'm absolutely certain my coalition is winning.

I am nowhere near that level of certainty at present and might never be.

Saying that I am mafia for not wanting to be in the coalition because all townies would want to be in the coalition and ascribing the only possible reason for someone not wanting to be in the coalition as "they are mafia who are pushing their partner in instead" is reductionist and absurd.

I can believe this.

so if you believe ari's self towncase (at least i think that's what you are implying), and think that your townread on me is good, why do you think exactly that the coalition i suggested will fail? like who out of the 5 people do you suspect? bella? implo? datisi? please elaborate

[implosion]

had a very blah day yesterday. will be catching up soon

[Aristeia]

I'm posting less because I think me posting too much is suffocating for the game and enough people are already not posting

[Aristeia]

If anyone wants me to answer any questions feel free to @me

[implosion]

Hero, did you pick this coalition because you saw Datisi suggest it or did you independently pick the same 5 people?

[Hero at Heart]

independently - i only saw datisi suggesting it after i picked it.

[Bellaphant]

Hi, I haven't read, Izzy's gone to hospital so I'm vla for a day or so! Sorry mod

[implosion]

I would support you or ari, but not both. Sub out drew or myself for yourself or for ari and I will go along with this.

This is a sentiment that I don't understand. Why do you want to avoid a specific combination of two people in the coalition? Isn't that... not how a coalition works? Are you just trying to compromise? Doesn't asking for a compromise not make any sense if one of the people you distrust is the one making the decision of who to sub out for who?

---

The way hero is playing the game right now is very town and also annoying. I kind of hate the attitude of "well if this is wrong then woe is me, i'll just exit stage left". No, if this coalition goes through and is wrong then you don't get to magically shirk responsibility if you're town, you have to play the rest of the game.

I don't feel particularly confident in this coalition. I guess I feel also annoyed at the This Coalition Is Unilaterally Final thing. I like THS (i'll talk about the scum case on him in a bit but it seems like hero is particularly intransigent on him). I feel like Malakittens feels town from what posting she has and is a viable member of the coalition if she winds up showing up to the game more, which I'd theoretically like to give her a chance to do even if she doesn't get added to the coalition because, well, I don't feel as gung-ho as Hero does.

I don't really understand why Ari is just going along with a coalition that it seems like she thinks has decent odds of failing (given that she has expressed a townread on Hero but not on Datisi) after talking about how she's annoyed that she always gets put on failing coalitions as town.

I also don't really buy Hero's datisi-town case, it just reminds me of reasons I have incorrectly townread Datisi in the distant past. I do lean town on Bella but not with high confidence and I like her reason for townreading Datisi somewhat more but it is also pretty intangible because I don't think I've ever really seen things from Datisi-scum that made me want to actively scumread him in early days in past games like she describes, though I definitely believe that someone could.

[implosion]

I think I also just don't like the idea of "we need to lock in a coalition really soon". In particular I think the existence of uncertainty about who is going to be in the coalition is healthy because it will force scum to commit to stances in a way that will be useful to go back and read - like, if the proposed coalition is a/b/c/d/e and e is scum and a new coalition that is proposed is all-town, then even if we wind up going back to the coalition of a/b/c/d/e, the reactions of other players outside the coalition are probably telling once we have enough flips to have context that we might have been proposing an all-town coalition.

The only real reason to lock in soon in my mind is people's interest in the game petering out. Which I guess it seems like hero's essentially is

[implosion]

i think that in a vacuum, yes this is a townie post. the thing with THS this game is that when he started getting pressured hard, he took a sharp turn and started making a lot of "townie" posts about how he's looking at the game - except there's a huge discrepancy between what he claims to be doing and what he is actually doing.

I think this point (and this whole post) is like, logically sound but I don't buy it as a reason to think THS is scum over town. I guess thinking of things motivationally, if THS is town, then he said he was going to be thinking about the game in a particular way and looking for particular things, and then he didn't do that. That's probably somewhat unlikely to happen but the game does move quickly sometimes and I don't think it's like, super unlikely. On the flip side, if THS is scum, then he said he was going to be thinking about the game in a particular way and looking for particular things, and then he didn't do that. That's also unlikely - if THS is scum (especially if he's a good scum player like Merlyn had claimed), it's not like he has any reason not to follow through with the thing he said he was going to do. You can think of it somewhat like Bayesian statistics. Essentially if THS is scum then he decides what he says entirely (because scum aren't beholden to actual reads or anything) and so it's not like it's particularly hard to do a thing after you say you're going to do that thing. So basically just because at first blush the behavior doesn't make sense as town, that doesn't mean that it makes

more

sense as coming from scum.

With all that said I continue to think THS is acting townish - 374 as a post immediately after getting cased seems very nonchalant for scum in this setup (in particular if he is scum, I think that post would imply it's somewhat likely another scum is in the current coalition). I think his [post]401[/[post] is quite optimistic if he's town but also not a very likely post for scum to make. Or at least I think it's more evidence that if THS is scum, there is already scum in the coalition, which would make him a good candidate to add to the coalition if true.

[Hero at Heart]

The way hero is playing the game right now is very town and also annoying. I kind of hate the attitude of "well if this is wrong then woe is me, i'll just exit stage left". No, if this coalition goes through and is wrong then you don't get to magically shirk responsibility if you're town, you have to play the rest of the game.

sorry for being annoying

i may have conveyed the wrong message. i do intend to hunt scum if this coalition fails. i don't really intend to shirk reponsibility, i just presented it in a "fluffy" way because i honestly feel like presenting my thoughts in an analytical way is right now draining for me mentally and would also make me look scummy for some reason (i've been called scum for being over-analytical several times in the past*). but whatever, i'll explain my thought process analytically.

basically, i think this coalition only fails if ari is scum, and ari has set it up in such a way that i'm basically a guaranteed misyeet if the coalition fails (and in fact if the coalition somehow fails and she's also town, then it's likely she's misyeeted day 2 and then i go into elo looking very scummy, which is bad because i am town). i think from a pov of how can i guarantee least amount of misyeets and highest amount of scum eliminated, then without breaking my promise to ari of not pushing her if this fails, the only logical thing to do would be to yeet myself day 1 and then ari day 2. i think this guarantees scum dies in 90% of the cases where the coalition fails.

*note:

Spoiler:

i actually tend to overthink my posts as town. i know usually overthinking what you post is considered scummy, but i often write up a post, read it over and think "well actually this doesn't sound consistent / makes me look scummy", as TOWN, and then go and re-write that post.

---

also, i agree with you that merlyn's perspective of either me or ari doesn't make sense because that's not how coalition works. i think merlyn is scummy for that.



also,

I don't feel particularly confident in this coalition.

I guess I feel also annoyed at the This Coalition Is Unilaterally Final thing.

that's actually understandable. and like i'm willing to re-evaluate, but right now i have evaluated the game state and i think you/bella have each 95% confidence of being town, same with datisi i guess, and i know i'm town. so it doesn't really make sense to me to sub out any of these 4. then with ari i think we could maybe find a better coalition but the thing with ari is if the coalition fails i at least know it's her, and if the coalition fails with drew+other 4 for instance, i would have 0 clue who is scum out of the coalition members. and i also don't tr any of the other 4 (drew/merlyn/ths/kittens) very much, but maybe it's just me.

[Hero at Heart]

(i'll talk about the scum case on him in a bit but it seems like hero is particularly intransigent on him

lol i guess i am

you know what, can i ask a question?

if THS is town then who are potential scum candidates for you?

[Aristeia]

I don't really understand why Ari is just going along with a coalition that it seems like she thinks has decent odds of failing (given that she has expressed a townread on Hero but not on Datisi) after talking about how she's annoyed that she always gets put on failing coalitions as town.

I don't think hero is mafia trying to drag me into a losing coalition

I don't feel as strongly as he does that Datisi is town.

I don't think this needs to be final - most of the game is not really even playing and I'm happy to wait to see what other people want

[Hero at Heart]

i guess i can understand what ari had been talking about with regard to fake confidence

i'm just posting very arrogantly, and dominating the thread

i'll try to temper that

[Hero at Heart]

okay i think it might be best if i do like ari and don't post here unless someone @me, at least for the next 48 hours more or less.

[Hero at Heart]

The only real reason to lock in soon in my mind is people's interest in the game petering out. Which I guess it seems like hero's essentially is

yeah sorriez

[Hero at Heart]

ok one last post before i go do my chores:
ari could you please explain your read on datisi in detail?

and implo could you explain your read on datisi as well? i can totally understand the paranoia, but do you have a reason to scumread him or do you just think the reasons i have to tr him could all be faked?

[implosion]

ari has set it up in such a way that i'm basically a guaranteed misyeet if the coalition fails

this is untrue lol

if THS is town then who are potential scum candidates for you?

You/ari/THS are the only ones who aren't "potential scum candidates" for me right now (in that order but honestly maybe THS should be above ari because ari has burned me in the past).

In rough order from town to scum for the rest of the player list: Bella's play feels like what I remember of her town play and there are things I like, just not confident. Mala as I mentioned I lean town on but need more from. I think Datisi hasn't done anything to rule himself out as scum (which is notably the opposite of how Bella is claiming to read him). Drew like I mentioned I don't really trust myself to read well but I think he's viably scum. Merlyn is I guess the closest I have to a scumread, she's done things I've thought were townish but she's done multiple things that have pinged me significantly and I think her overall approach of wanting to slow the game down and pigeonhole it into being a game that should be viewed from that particular angle is scum a good amount of the time.

[implosion]

I think the best way to explain why I don't like your read on datisi is to reference this game. I was SK but I was giving genuine reads iirc. Datisi was scum.

this post and like, this quote from me later on:

I think my gut still says Datisi is town; the way he's interacting with the game right now, his general manner strikes me that way. The way he's talking about himself and his thought processes and his meta while still trying to push the game forward e.g. by voting me.

There was a certain degree of playing the game in a competent, relaxed manner that I was inclined to townread from him, and I feel like that's what you've been describing in this game. I have been able to successfully townread Datisi on d1 in at least one game I can think of since then (though he was on an alt) and I think it came down to him being more embroiled in the game state. His engagement in this game exists but there's not much substantial conflict. I liked the fact that he proposed a full coalition at the moment he did and the indication of a real thought process in 356 but I don't think it's outside of his scum range, as illustrated by the above quote from myself in 2021.

I don't have any particular reason to scumread him in this game, but I'm more looking for reasons to townread him and not seeing any right now. I think I can probably find reasons to scumread him if he's scum at some point but I don't have Bella's confidence that I'd have been able to do it by now.

[Aristeia]

ari could you please explain your read on datisi in detail?

I don't really have one, atp its more of I think THS/Merlyn are really scummy and I'd be ok putting any 5 that aren't them into the coalition and hoping it's right

[Aristeia]

like some things have pinged kind of townie but he's a p good scum player so I don't think there's anything I'd say is like clearing or amazing for him

he's also kind of disinterested in playing mafia so it's harder to get a read on him - ig I'd gth think its town indicative for him to not care if he's town but like maybe its more nai that he doesnt enjoy mafia anymore.

[Hero at Heart]

wdym abt last paragraph?

[TheHoldSteady]

hi THS, sorry for ignoring these posts.
i've been kind of checked out from the game even though it might not look like that since i did post but i didn't actually look at anything thoroughly or try to analyze anything.

here's the way i think this is going to go:

i think hero's thought process seems very genuine and authentic and i actually got good vibes when we had that argument pages ago. i felt like i was talking to a town, not a scum.

i think the coalition is going to be wrong, and then he's going to lead a lim on me which is also going to be wrong.

what happens beyond then is out of my control

1. if i understood correctly, your sr on me was based on perceiving me as subtly trying to ride your wagon. does me not being as subtle aa you were expecting me to be change your viewpoint on me?
2. well, have you looked at the others? what did you see?

I already SAID you not being as subtle changed my viewpoint on you in 139 and I've BEEN looking at others in 188, 206, 235, 244, 245,

I do agree that numbers wise it just makes sense to put yourself forward for the coalition bc if you know you're town then you can only be wrong about 4 spots rather than 5. The only person who can really relax and not need to advocate for themselves here is a wolf who is pushing a partner in there. There's no point in being worried that it will make you a target later if the coalition fails, you're getting heat now anyway.

i have two completed games of coalition;

viewtopic.php?t=91245
viewtopic.php?t=89428

I am town in both

I suggested not being in coalition in both

I ended up in the coalition in both

I personally do not enjoy being in the coalition unless I'm absolutely certain my coalition is winning.

I am nowhere near that level of certainty at present and might never be.

Saying that I am mafia for not wanting to be in the coalition because all townies would want to be in the coalition and ascribing the only possible reason for someone not wanting to be in the coalition as "they are mafia who are pushing their partner in instead" is reductionist and absurd.

I can believe this.

so if you believe ari's self towncase (at least i think that's what you are implying), and think that your townread on me is good, why do you think exactly that the coalition i suggested will fail? like who out of the 5 people do you suspect? bella? implo? datisi? please elaborate

I'm least certain on Datisi and Ari. I'll elaborate more on that soon but I've fallen sick and don't have the mental energy right now