Guns & Roses VI [Game Over]

[Titus]

VOTE: Taly

Welcome back.

[Titus]

VOTE: gamma

FEAR ME
I AM MALA
HEAR ME
ROAR

lets let the mech wiz take a look at it

LETS GO TITUS AND GAMMA

FORMULATE.

I simulanteously got town and scum pings from this posting.

[Titus]

Assumption "All mafia and some townie picked guns" asking for self.

Picking rose as scum is hard to justify.

Not competely but usually. Depends on if A) scum have talk b) how controversial they are and c) the strategy they'd go for. Which logically means that could be different if they spoke to each other.

[Titus]

I agree with Gamma. Malakittens putting so much emphasis on is two being mech is odd.

mfeathers, what site are you usually on? Mafiauniverse?

As for guns, they should be claimed after spending. It prevents fakes later and doesn't put a neon sign on who must die.

VOTE: Dunnstral

Too early to defend people.

[Titus]

I think massclaim is good, so we force everyone who claimed gun to shot each other, because i don't believe Mafia didnt Went full 3 gun fun.

Wheme is conftown, unless atleast one gun claims.

I never would go for that if I have a gun. I would shoot my reads period.

[Titus]

Just a reminder since I doubt most people realize this
If all town roses die, town loses no matter the numbers
I think when factoring that in scum have increased incentive to pick rose, to muddy the numbers

Also, I think any rose claims should never specify a night. Leave scum to guess imo.

Right. Roses should only claim on no death nights (if any). Guns claim who they shoot.

[Titus]

I think massclaim is good, so we force everyone who claimed gun to shot each other, because i don't believe Mafia didnt Went full 3 gun fun.

Wheme is conftown, unless atleast one gun claims.

I never would go for that if I have a gun. I would shoot my reads period.

I smell you don't have it.

I might. I might not. Why are you speculating?

[Titus]

I think I'm in the not mass claiming boat as well and agree with guns claiming if they've made a kill. I suppose that begs the question, do they only claim if they make a kill? Not if they shoot a rose that was BP that night?

The goal is to track scum kills. On a no death night, a gun should claim because it confirms a bp player that night. It does out a rose, but it essentially confirms them. We do have a fair amount of roses.

If we track a rose that survived on a no kill night with no corresponding gun kill, then it's very likely that slot is town. (There are edge cases, but best not to go into them.)

We don't want a massclaim. We only want claims when they lead to info.

[Titus]

The way this should work is as follows.

1) Claim immediately if your gun succeeds.
2) If no kills, then any surviving roses should claim.
3) If no kills, then any matching guns should claim.
2-3) Conclusion: Scum kill is very very likely in any unmatched rose. Scum already know the kill, so it provides little to no information for scum. There are edge cases where scum try and cc their kill target and vigs shoot the scum nightkill. Extreme edge case, vig shoots kill target and scum claim it.
4) If there's a successful kill but a town gun fails, then the gun should claim. Then we all know if the victim is town, then we know the victim must be that rose and therefore no shady guns.

[Titus]

No matter what scum do with this set up, there's a risk they get caught out. Any gun can be matched with reads. Scum should be afraid to fake claim as they could be exposed either by narrative or by mech. I'm not going to go through every scenario or force it, but that's what should happen.

[Titus]

I'm not sure I follow step 2, You mean roses that chose that night? Wouldn't that then confirm to guns and scum that those people are all now vulnerable? You wouldn't want the failed gun to claim first and who they targeted, then have that rose confirm or not? Only one rose outed? I realize this scenario that the failed gun would probably not want to admit themselves, but in your scenario we could have a bunch of roses become vulnerable and then have no guns claim afterwards. I feel like the guns should have to stick their neck out first.

In that setup, no. In the others I outlined, yes guns go first.

If guns claim first, then scum get an idea to possibly obscure who all can be confirmed. If scum want to fake a gun on a no kill night, their options are limited to who claims. If it doesn't match their narrative it gets caught out later.

The risk of now scum know this target is safe is minimal given roses are only safe one night.

[Titus]

mfeathers, about how many games have you played? What is the most complex setup you felt comfotable with? How would you describe your style (analytical, gut, etc.)?

[Titus]

Someone's sus.

[Titus]

I’m townreading ari

I think I am too

I can roll w that

[Titus]

WhemeStar is down in my reads

[Titus]

TOWN*

Sorry had to poke fun

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more enchant votes only comment i have

No that wagon should be Dunn for.

[Titus]

Mmm
Why is Dunnstral scum?

Reluctance to call people town. Weak thoughts but still there.

[Titus]

only town can be roses, right?

Scum and town can be guns or roses.

*notes post*

[Titus]

VOTE: enchant
i like enchant wagon more than wheme wagon

Like Ali town. Hate the reads.

[Titus]

Why would you shoot Wheme?

Cuz i am only town gun.

I don't believe one scum picked rose.

Wheme could be a n1 rose baiting the mafia kill. They claimed right after someone said a gun claim would be a defenseless confirmed town, if I remember correctly. I don't think mafia would claim to be a gun right away because then they can be shot by the town guns if they don't believe them.

I don't like to have to spell that out but if you are the only town gun you getting wagoned is bad and you shooting at wheme is bad.

Titus

, how are you feeling about this post?

I feel like engaging on why a claim is made isn't good. Dictating others isn't good.

[Titus]

Personally I still think we forget about an Enchant or Wheme wagon until D2 and instead anyone pushing for an Enchant or Wheme wagon are good fodder for a wagon.

VOTE: SirCakez

I still feel like this is trash logic
VOTE: Celebloki

VOTE: Cakez

[Titus]

Personally I still think we forget about an Enchant or Wheme wagon until D2 and instead anyone pushing for an Enchant or Wheme wagon are good fodder for a wagon.

VOTE: SirCakez

I still feel like this is trash logic
VOTE: Celebloki

VOTE: Cakez

wtf? Do you think I’m chainsawing Cakez, why us your vote a response to me voting Celeb?

I agree with the logic you feel is trash. I don't know about you yet but being oppositional to a bad take and sheeping a good one helps me read you.

[Titus]

The Enchant wagon is stupid. Enchant's actions flow from his belief. It's also opportunistic.

[Titus]

If you are actually town gun, you never call wheme conftown.

What does he gain as scum that he wouldn't gain as town?

[Titus]

Gamma's a bad vote too.

Is this going to be a herding cats game?

[Titus]

Gamma's a bad vote too.

Is this going to be a herding cats game?

who would you say is a good vote atp Titus?

Cakez is a good sorting vote. Dunn would be okay too.

[Titus]

Cakez is a good sorting vote. Dunn would be okay too.

I agree with dunn being a good vote - not really sure about cakez because he always feels kind of scummy to me sorry cakez >.>

Note odd tone.

[Titus]

The Enchant wagon is stupid. Enchant's actions flow from his belief. It's also opportunistic.

You seem strong on this, were all the votes on the wagon bad? And independent of the votes, what is your read on

Enchant

?

My argument is largely on the play. :/ Not sure you understood. Please reread.

[Titus]

I want to push everyone to spew reads on Enchant/Wheme/Alisae.

I'm not convinced that any specific shot is a town-controlled one unless there is more input from the playerlist.

All town

[Titus]

Im struggling to understand why anyone would take a rose and instead wouldnt take a gun

power-wise there's so much more influence in flipping a role than potentially absorbing a kill or two

If I pick gun, it's because I feel like I'm on a hot streak and can kill confidently. If I'm depressed or trust in others or feel no one else would, I take rose.

[Titus]

VOTE: Dunn

[Titus]

I'm depressed IRL. It will likely impact my play.

[Titus]

it appears im on this island alone thinking

cakez

is scum

You are not.

[Titus]

Alisae. You exist. You are loved. You are totally wrong here imo.

[Titus]

I read individuals differently. The way I read Titus is not going to be the same way that I read Cakez and its not going to be the same way that I read Gamma which is not going to be teh same way I read Mala which is not going to be the same way I read someone who I'm unfamiliar with.

People are individuals

I agree with this.

[Titus]

@Alisae,

Wheme's immediate response to claim gun in response to Enchant's behavior is town behavior, regardless of if he has a gun or not.

381 for the record supposes how many guns or roses scum picked. Not willing to do that.

[Titus]

I mean there's 1 unclaimed gun that's probably mafia

Smh.

[Titus]

Yes Shiro. You are town. *follows cookies*

[Titus]

Yes.

did my votes for not shooting

alisae/titus/gamma

actually count?

Joins. Add pisskop

[Titus]

I'd move Ari and theta down 1 tier, wheme up, swap cakez and celeb

[Titus]

Can you do a read wall?

[Titus]

I have no problem w this wagon but I am worried about no counter.

[Titus]

UNVOTE:

I don't want

Bulge

gone today and this feels like a vanity off a potentientally biased ISO (the bias is superficially not liking it rather than thinking deeper)

I actually could do that

[Titus]

Theta Alpine likes no one.
Dunnstral likes no one.
The Bulge likes no one.
SirCakez likes no one.
Titus likes pisscop.
Malakittens likes no one.
Taly likes Titus.
Alisae likes no one.
WhemeStar likes no one.
Aristeia likes no one.
Gamma Emerald likes self.
Enchant likes Self (counts as two votes)
Celebloki likes no one.
pisskop likes no one.

So far only Alisae and me are safe.

Did i mention i actually throw dice for my shot among all remaining candidates?

Boost your chances to not be shot by being liked by someone.


Why? Because it's funny of course.

??

[Titus]

oh huh

well who shot the bulge cause they can be conf town

Very very very likely town. They'd need to claim it.

I don't see scum shooting Celeboki or no killing.

Next step is to have the shooters of bulge and Celeboki come forward. Then, we have any night 1 roses come forward.

[Titus]

Unless mafia submited bulge's action for them, bulge not acting is another possibility.

is it possible both mafia were afk and thats why we have no mafia kills lol

I just asked the mod this

[Titus]

Scum NK probably hit a N1 Rose right

Yes but it is possible they no submitted due to irl.

[Titus]

VOTE: malakittens

[Titus]

I feel reluctant to go for a scum no submittal theory.

We have at least 1 nk and 1 gun kill to explain missing.

Taly is the first. I buy that.

Theta is the second claim. It's in the area of plausible. It doesn't sit right but mech ok for now.

Alisae shot Bulge uncontested. Town there.

[Titus]

if no one else claims night 1 rose then me and taly are confirmed town

No. Scum could have failed to submit entirely. You'd be very very likely town but not confirmed.

[Titus]

I feel reluctant to go for a scum no submittal theory.

We have at least 1 nk and 1 gun kill to explain missing.

Taly is the first. I buy that.

Theta is the second claim. It's in the area of plausible. It doesn't sit right but mech ok for now.

Alisae shot Bulge uncontested. Town there.

Is my tunnel on

Wheme

misled?

I don't think Wheme is scum.

[Titus]

Who all are claiming n1 rose?

[Titus]

Theta - n1 rose
Cakez- ?
Me - not n1 rose
Mala - ?
Taly - n1 Rose
Alisae - n1 gun
Wheme - n1 rose?
Aristeia- n11 rose
Gamma - ?
Enchant - n1 gun
Pisskop - ?

[Titus]

I probably want to vote out enchant today btw

Not inclined to vote a successful gun user as Celeboki wasn't on many obvtown lists.

[Titus]

VOTE: Sircakez

[Titus]

VOTE: SirCakez

[Titus]

v/la until wednesday for personal reasons

i did try to dive dunn and bulge and idk
both feel like lhf and not scum

feels like this is what scum says about their partners floundering and i dont read any real scumhunting from her.

Too wrong to be scum imo but wouldn't want theta in elo.

[Titus]

rather unfortunate indeed

more unfortunate that the person i most suspect right now is aristeia because i am fairly sure that is wrong

Then again, I don't like this response.

[Titus]

Gamma wanted to go Cakez.

Is that really incriminating for Cakez?

Do you think GE NK was meaningful?

The only thing I could think that could be relevant is they claimed they were a N1 rose thus were known to be a viable kill option.

True. I wanted Cakez too but my rose is unknown.

[Titus]

I think a big problem here is that there's not likely to be new information. So everyone is incentivized to tunnel d1 reads.

[Titus]

I think a big problem here is that there's not likely to be new information. So everyone is incentivized to tunnel d1 reads.

Agreed, but how do we fix this other than quick mountainous play?

I am not sure there is.

[Titus]

I feel kinda stuck. I feel like its Cakez but I don't have a strong case. :/

[Titus]

Taly, I hear you on the bussing. Unless it's Alisae most of the bussing slots have already flipped.

[Titus]

*likely

[Titus]

People, we have a little more than a day. Fucking pick someone.

[Titus]

To me, it's between Sircakez and Ali.

[Titus]

its been a terribly crappy month for me too. A bad year overall, actually.

In the words of some philosopher or something 'If you hide it doesnt go away'

Take a hug. I'm struggling in real life too with illness. We'll persevere. If you need a friend (this goes for anyone), please pm me.

[Titus]

VOTE: Redados

We don't have much time and I have a stronger inclination about

Cakez

-town, specifically their difficulty with making a decision right now feels towny in the current gamestate.

I waffle tbh. I'm willing to vote Red to get a lim off. Could use a vc.

[Titus]

@Taly, what are y'all studying?

[Titus]

PhD in Medicinal Chemistry / Molecular Pharmacology

Wow. Smarter than me.

[Titus]

I'm not here on Friday nights. I don't like pisskop calling me a lurker.

[Titus]

Could be. I prefer Mala but I was wrong yesterday.

VOTE: Red

[Titus]

It's a decent case.

[Titus]

we need titus to make an appearance

Jesus this feels in bad faith. I am not usually here on Saturdays.

[Titus]

It may not be kosher but I'm ruling out Wheme because of how short night was.

[Titus]

It may not be kosher but I'm ruling out Wheme because of how short night was.

It’s not kosher and I don’t think the mod would go fast night without everyone doing a PM

He wasn't around to do the kill. I bet he approved fast night previously.

[Titus]

I mean he could have set up a kill in case we limmed without him posting. But that's a bit feched.

[Titus]

I want to push everyone to spew reads on Enchant/Wheme/Alisae.

I'm not convinced that any specific shot is a town-controlled one unless there is more input from the playerlist.

I think all three could be town,

I don't think Wheme's play makes much sense as any kind of gun.

If he's a mafia gun, openly claiming is very ??? like what's he expecting to get out of that? draw out town gun CC ? like town gun can just shoot him at night.

if he's a town gun, him responding to enchant's claim by saying yea i townread enchant is very ?? - like if he thinks he's 1v1ing enchant why would he say that?

so like if wheme is some kind of rose who's trolling and trying to draw a nightkill it kind of makes sense if he's a town rose doing it? like why would a mafia rose put themselves out there?

2ndly

I think enchant is town because the way he responded to being pushed felt like he was very much exasperated to think that I could possibly think he would do this song and dance as a mafia gun, which kind of bleeds into his posting like he's asking me if I think he's trolling and when I say yes his eyes kind of roll into the back of his head in annoyance and he vows to not talk to me - that's a p town reaction to being called a troll lol

thirdly

I think alisae's enthusiasm for mass claim / resolving the gun issue just feels very town - there's little reason for ali to insert into the wheme/enchant situation and force the issue as a mafia gun, ali can just let enchant shoot wheme and let the cards fall where they might. there's nothing for ali to actually disrupt in place - it feels a lot like a townie jumping the gun.


I would find it much more likely there are no mafia in ali/enchant/wheme than something like two mafia? if there's one mafia in the grouping I struggle to see who fits with a scum mindset.

Also this game does feel kind of stalled being that there's 3 days to deadline and some people have decided to ghost it.

for example Bulge/Mala & Dunnstral.

Bulge hasn't posted in 2 days
Mala hasn't posted in 2 days.

Dunnstral posted once on wednesday and once on thursday and niether post really bothers to push anything in the game state - just a very one liner comment focussing on talking about someone's comment about himself.

The thing is in a game state where Enchant/Ali/Wheme are town and town is focussed on the wrong area - then it makes sense to me that mafia would find it difficult to post and actively participate because they know the town is on the wrong path and they're fine just sitting on their hands waiting for the town to just off itself.

I find this more concerning for Dunnstral than the other two in relative terms because I've seen Mala/Bulge both flake out of games as town so I know they often sign up for games and just do not play them but for Dunnstral I think he tends to be more focussed on mech related issues and also scumhunt less when he's mafia.

[Titus]

You didn't approve fast night? I asked on a prior night so I figured he went with that.

I have it down to Taly or Mala anyway.

[Titus]

Titus

do you have any hangups with me rn?

Nope. Just more that I am TRing everyone else but you and mala. Ari dying though I think points more towards Mala.

[Titus]

Possibly. I can't really get certainty without asking directly about mod communications. It's one thing to say Wheme has an alibi. It's another to ask about mod talk.

[Titus]

VOTE: Malakittens

[Titus]

....huh?

[Titus]

My mentality is that I just feel it's mala or you so why prolong things...

[Titus]

I picked n2 rose because of my own d3 with a scum flip vca rule lmao

[Titus]

good game. You did really well at the end, thank you for stepping up, Mala

This

[Titus]

Sorry Cakey.