it would forever solidify this game as one of the worst reads ive had in a game
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
Just looking at this from 600 it's like, even if dunn is scum and we fight we drop from 35% to 27.27% if we spare scum!dunn instead, but we lose so much by killing town!dunn (going from 59.7% to 17%)
Suppose we mislim twice. Then if we choose Fight, 3/12 that we go to 2:9 mountainous (35% town win) and 9/12 that we go to 3:8 mountainous (17% town win) for about a 21% EV.
If you're thinking Dunn is scum right now ask yourself would you rather lose 8 percentage points or 42?
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"No ssbm is not grudging me. She's one of my favorites on the website, and i wanna say vice versa." - Transcend
The day senpai noticed me^
In post 3502, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
Just looking at this from 600 it's like, even if dunn is scum and we fight we drop from 35% to 27.27% if we spare scum!dunn instead, but we lose so much by killing town!dunn (going from 59.7% to 17%)
Suppose we mislim twice. Then if we choose Fight, 3/12 that we go to 2:9 mountainous (35% town win) and 9/12 that we go to 3:8 mountainous (17% town win) for about a 21% EV.
If you're thinking Dunn is scum right now ask yourself would you rather lose 8 percentage points or 42?
Just tell me if you’re more confident finding town X times in a row or finding scum X times in a row.
Mobile, so I can’t really do a huge game theory post, but there’s a fundamental misunderstanding here. Mafia doesn’t win traditional games by being most towny (or least scummy, but that’s a synonym).
Mafia wins traditional games by being middle of the pack. The most towny are nks and the most scummy are elims. Town here is susceptible to loss by spare if the most towny are scum, which is a different can of beans.
Additionally, mountainous tended to slightly overperform ev the last time it was run regularly, so a more reasonable expectation if we lim Dunntown is ~25%. Vote for town, otoh tends to overperform ev significantly, so we’re legitimately looking at near autowin if we spare town Dunn.
Honestly, I’m a little ashamed that I didn’t do the ev analysis and catch this when I reviewed the game, but it sounded like balanced numbers on the face of it and apparently I was being lazy. Probably should be 4 scum in hindsight.
I like the counterargument that the two mislims don't undeniably infer a deepwolf
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
Mechanically the most townsided in the game and unless the majority or all the scumteam were widely townread slots at the time, I don't think it could have the motive of protecting teammates
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
Is that the special hell of this game, that D1 was always going to be a mislim
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
In post 3489, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
And yes that's what I mean, only takes scum!Dunn plus one spare scum to win, even if they are not infiltrated, it could happen after a couple of day when 4 consensus town are off the table from NK and spares
Methinks that I have a plan for that
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
In post 3452, Bingle wrote:
I have a tinfoil that kyouko is scum with a deep wolf and is counting on us sparing a deep wolf and then panicking into “oh shit spare was the wrong choice!”
Maybe Dunn?
I just don’t know how anyone can legitimately look at implos numbers post and say: yup, let’s fight. Especially with the argument that scumhunting is easier than townhunting here.
i’m unsure why she would project these feelings prior to the spare going through, i feel ? it would be more of an impact to push people who voted spare after the fact.
i’m tepid about what we do at this point because this game is hard and my faith in myself to find actual town and not wolves going deep is uh. lol
I feel like it has more impact as an argument if floated first, and it’s not like kyouko is in any danger at all, regardless of people’s reads until after this phase.
The way I see it, scum kyouko has nothing to lose. If town pants on heads and votes fight scum is in a better position regardless of Dunn’s alignment. If town spares scum Dunn or Taly or something, kyouko has set up for massive towncred. And a deep paranoia about EVERY townread slot.
I will admit it doesn’t mean jack unless we spare a townread scum player though. It’s just a thing that popped up when I saw the argument.
It feels like the kind of thing I’d post as scum because not posting would just be a giant risk that I get outed lategame by literally anyone who knows me, and I think implo is a similarly mech heavy player.
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
humor me and self-meta on why this can't be your scumgame
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
humor me and self-meta on why this can't be your scumgame
It could be. Like, I could tell you how scum me plays this game and why this isn’t that, but everything about this game has just been me not really having the time and engagement to be able to do what I want to do, and scum me doesn’t magically have more free time than town me.
There could be an argument made that I’d be better able to fake information instead of in depth reading, but my RL has been such that I wouldn’t have had the time to fake engagement either.
I think that what I’ve posted has shown my motivation, but there has been precious little of it.
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
im officially at that point of no return where ive made SO MANY DRASTIC read and worldview changes of this game, that i will always look back post-game and be like
"wtf was i on"
the question is, at what SEVERAL points of the game will that question be asked in retrospect?
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
In post 2238, Taly wrote:
if you think scum is okay with the gamestate, what mutually agreed upon townreads do you think are wrong?
That’s the problem, innit?
I don’t really see anyone as super scummy. I do think I’ve come up with a way to vastly improve our EV that may have been missed in the design of the setup though.
VOTE: No elimination
Even if we assume that no lim = mafia doesn't pick an elimination, I'm not sure it's worth wasting nights without a NK just to give a "second chance" to slots like Ali which probably aren't gonna be town read ever?
Meuh is trying more and could technically turn the suspicion around but I doubt Ali would do anything similar here
sus
She/Her - limited access on nights and weekends
"No ssbm is not grudging me. She's one of my favorites on the website, and i wanna say vice versa." - Transcend
The day senpai noticed me^
"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
She/Her - limited access on nights and weekends