Large Normal 246: Game Over

[Guillotina]

It is nice I was not the only I felt it though.

[Guillotina]

I'm not but the votes will probably be telling and as a claimed Miller it might be better that I die sooner rather than later.

I don't think there's anything wrong with point #1 above. 17 players, 4 scum, leaves 12 targets for the NK after a mislim, 13 if we hit scum.

That's about a 9% chance of blocking the kill if the doc is unclaimed and doesnt get killed. This is negligible and if I were scum.i.would not be killing Hu Tao until her chances improved or until I was worried they would start blocking kills on the people I actually want to kill.

N2 after losing another town to a mislim that is an 11% chance of stopping the kill. N3 continues as 1/7 which is maybe 13.5% (estimate). By N4 there is a 20% chance, assuming mislims all along the way. This is the earliest I would ever consider shooting Hu Tao as scum as long as Hu Tao remains suspected

You talking about Hu Tao like an expendable townie and not like scum that needs to be eliminated. "Let's kill them because their chances to block a kill are slim anyway". 9% chance is better than 0% chance.

[Guillotina]

Yeah this doesn't really feel like scum!kyouko based on those games at least. In those games you seem a bit more defensive towards the people pushing you,

I disagree with the statement that they are not being defensive here, right after we voted they "suspected" Gamma, Dave and myself for being scum. That is outright OMGUS.

[Black]

Yeah this doesn't really feel like scum!kyouko based on those games at least. In those games you seem a bit more defensive towards the people pushing you,

I disagree with the statement that they are not being defensive here, right after we voted they "suspected" Gamma, Dave and myself for being scum. That is outright OMGUS.

In that game when she was being pushed it was more like "why me?" type stuff. Yeah she suspected some people on her wagon here but it felt more like solving as opposed to defensiveness. I could be wrong though

[Guillotina]

I think I would be down for a Gamma or Keyleth wagon. We only have a little over a day left in the deadline so I'm curious what people think about these two

I don't care about those two today. If we are going to collectively take Kyo off of the chopping block, we go back to Celebloki or Naerys.

[Black]

I'm not sold on kyouko being town here because 2 year old meta isn't really convincing. Like I think she could have adapted her scum play. But I am considering moving to Keyleth. I'm not really convinced about my read on her either

[Black]

I think I would be down for a Gamma or Keyleth wagon. We only have a little over a day left in the deadline so I'm curious what people think about these two

I don't care about those two today. If we are going to collectively take Kyo off of the chopping block, we go back to Celebloki or Naerys.

I could maybe do Celebloki

kyouko claimed miller though which lowkey makes me want to fade there

[Guillotina]

If I was day vig I would have impulsively shot Kyo off of that statement.

[Guillotina]

I think I would be down for a Gamma or Keyleth wagon. We only have a little over a day left in the deadline so I'm curious what people think about these two

I don't care about those two today. If we are going to collectively take Kyo off of the chopping block, we go back to Celebloki or Naerys.

I could maybe do Celebloki

kyouko claimed miller though which lowkey makes me want to fade there

I can compromise with a wagon between Celebloki, Naerys and Kyo today. Anything else, you will find resistance from me.

[Black]

I think the case on Cele is a little weak but I don't really like his Hu Tao push after she claimed. He has started to solve a bit more after people called him out for just talking about RN

[Black]

Yeah I think I'm ok with kyouko or Cele as well, whichever gains more traction

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I believe Hu Tao's claim and I think the people voting for her should probably find something else to do today

I believe in the standard concept that if someone claims a PR, especially a common one, and no one counterclaims them, that you don't lim then.

Which brings me to this:

I feel like
1. If Hu Tao's claim is real, it's not that helpful of a role right now because we're so early in. It would very hard to correctly guess the NK this early in the game, so even if it's real, scum might just leave them be anyways in hopes they'll get mislimmed before scum want to spend a NK on them
2. Could just be a fake claim because they have a useful scum PR
3. Could just be a fake claim from a goon to try to avoid dying/get value before dying

I feel like if we ignore the claim and lim Hu Tao anyways we would gain a lot more than we stand to lose if they are town. Like risk-reward is in favor of limming Hu Tao.

I've never seen a post like this.

#1 contains both the nugget that a Town Doctor isn't important and suggests that it would be ok to mislim them because hey mafia would likely let them live to get mislimmed later. How is that town?

Yah I don't like the post either, it is a very suboptimal proposal and pretty much one at a level of openwolfing and agenda driven.

VOTE: Kyouko

This is maybe scummy, it's too reductive for Guillo I think. He's not this simple and I think he sees an easy target.

By reductive I mean, he's just sheeping on Timmer's opinion and throwing out a couple of buzzwords to back it up. I think looking at the whole of my play it should be clear what my alignment is, and I think Guillo is conveniently overlooking that. I know he's paying attention, at least he should be with his activity level.

Nope, when you posted that I felt a stomachache because you were in my townreads and I dont expect my townreads to say that is optimal to still

lim

a claimed doctor instead of letting it resolve at night. That is why I posted that we should do just that, to overrule you and take away from you any hope of yeeting Hu Tao there and then I waited and revisited an old hunch i had about you and the i voted you cause I really hated your post.

Out of game: We don't use the L-word on site anymore, edited in the quote

What's the old hunch you had on me that you revisited? Do you disagree with my assessment of a doctor's effectiveness in a 16, 14, 12-player Night phase assuming 4 scum alive (which is when the doctor would be most effective at blocking a kill, the denominator increases if we hit scum before one of the nights).

Speaking to everyone, not just Guillotina here - I think it is

convenient

, not

optimal

, to not lim Hu Tao here, because people are trained to let PR claims live. I think the reflex is to let them live, but if you actually think about it is easy to see that a doctor is not very useful for town here. We haven't even considered yet Hu Tao could just be a mafia doctor here, and they would be very useful to scum if there are any vigilantes about.

I'm reminded of mafia doctors after seeing I was one in one of the games I linked

[Black]

Kyouko if Hu Tao is actually the doctor then scum will want to either NK her or let her move for the wifom. If they let her live then it could potentially be a huge swing for the town if she blocks a kill later in the game. Why is it not optimal to just leave her alone until much closer to ELO?

[Black]

Let her live*

[gob]

Im the mafia guys

[Elements]

VOTE: black

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Kyouko if Hu Tao is actually the doctor then scum will want to either NK her or let her move for the wifom. If they let her live then it could potentially be a huge swing for the town if she blocks a kill later in the game. Why is it not optimal to just leave her alone until much closer to ELO?

because scum stand to gain more from scum!Hu Tao living than town stands to lose from town!Hu Tao dying. Blocking one kill in an odd-numbers game does not give us an extra lim. Hu Tao will have to block 2 kills to do that. I would rather get rid of a scumread that might be mechanically helpful than have them around, uncleared, and without providing any clears, as we approach or even enter ELO/MELO.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If I were scum I would not be shooting at Hu Tao until at least N4 if not later depending on how the game goes. Mechanically she is about as powerful as a VT until then

[Naerys]

My recent impressions:
-Hu Tao slot will solve itself. I believe that scum cant really afford to have Hu alive for a long time. The longer Hu stays in the game, the higher chance she could save somebody. If her claim is true, ofc. If scum team has role cop/role stopper then perhaps they will let her live longer, but ultimately i believe town!Hu will be solved for us by night 3-4.
If not, then its probably scum!Tao and we will yeet her then. My conclusion is, that its more beneficial to let Hu live for now and prove herself.

About Kyou: Meta should be considered, but it also should be considered that meta can be faked. Some players are good at faking it, some players prefer to play every game in slightly different style. Kyou feels like a consistent player.
Okay but there is a comment i dont like:

but if you actually think about it is easy to see that a doctor is not very useful for town here

I dont agree with this at all, lol. Doctor can save important PRs or strong townies, who unite town and are good at finding scum. Granted, doctors are hard to play and they need to have analytical mind, but ultimately they can be very strong. Wishing to lim potential doctor is pretty bad imo. I am putting you to my SR.
I´d vote you asap but idk how votes stand. Let me do some counting.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Looking at Gamma ego now

[Naerys]

VOTE: kyouko
Should be e-2 if i counted right

[Black]

VOTE: black

If you're town then you're trolling. A vanity wagon on me does no good this close to the deadline, especially if you're not going to make a case and try to convince others to wagon with you

[Elements]

VOTE: black

If you're town then you're trolling. A vanity wagon on me does no good this close to the deadline, especially if you're not going to make a case and try to convince others to wagon with you

I'm just telling my thoughts through voting
I'll be floating till the deadline so can easily move it

[Elements]

I also think kyouko is flipping town

[davesaz]

Where is davesaz? seems unusually quiet this game

At the time of your post, sleeping. Also working (unbelievable number of meetings with everyone wanting to wrap stuff before half the team takes holiday break), recovering from the cold I had over the weekend.

The game is relatively quiet. Not a big fan of "me too"ing and it lacks the fireworks of directly competing large wagons.