Mini 2321: Classic Commercials (Postgame)

[SirCakez]

I remove FL from prob town to not sure anymore.

This just seems fake AF to me

[Hu Tao]

I can't see the town thoughts driving Hu Tao's posts. FL is right that it looks like they are just writing whatever gets them in a better position rather then legitimate scumhunting

What posts are putting me in a better position

[Hu Tao]

I remove FL from prob town to not sure anymore.

This just seems fake AF to me

I'm real, unfortunately

[Hu Tao]

Me Cakez. What are your thoughts on Naerys?

[Hu Tao]

Mr*

[SirCakez]

I can't see the town thoughts driving Hu Tao's posts. FL is right that it looks like they are just writing whatever gets them in a better position rather then legitimate scumhunting

What posts are putting me in a better position

Like the post I just quoted, it looks like you're dropping FL in your reads so you can fling stuff back at him more easily

[SirCakez]

VOTE: naerys I think this is a good suspect

Okay I'm done traveling home on break etc etc can we not hammer yet cuz I actually want to play today

I want to see the follow up to this. I don't think Cakez and Naerys are paired, but their reads on each other don't feel TvT either.

Her posts have felt like she's trying not to rock the boat yesterday and today, although she did mention being busy with work so I'm sympathetic enough to give her a chance to cook here

This is my current take on Naerys

[Hu Tao]

I can't see the town thoughts driving Hu Tao's posts. FL is right that it looks like they are just writing whatever gets them in a better position rather then legitimate scumhunting

What posts are putting me in a better position

Like the post I just quoted, it looks like you're dropping FL in your reads so you can fling stuff back at him more easily

[Hu Tao]

Okay let's vote Naerys then. I'm busing my partner.

VOTE: Naerys

[Hu Tao]

From your point of view

[Bingle]

I’ve read up, but I’m working from 7 AM til midnight tomorrow and I don’t particularly want to effort atm, so you get to wait until the weekend.

Unironically, FL, we let the night phase sort Celebloki.

VOTE: Hu Tao

I’ll sheep you here though.

[Flavor Leaf]

I’ve read up, but I’m working from 7 AM til midnight tomorrow and I don’t particularly want to effort atm, so you get to wait until the weekend.

Unironically, FL, we let the night phase sort Celebloki.

VOTE: Hu Tao

I’ll sheep you here though.

Im in the same boat tbh.

VOTE: Hu Tao

it's gotta be one of them today, though.

Celebloki should be leashed too, Naerys seems like a good slot.

[Bingle]

No, in any normal queue it should be "Your action failed, and you did not receive a result"... is what the Neapolitan and Roleblocker pages say under "Normal version". Confusion stems from it also saying the role is allowed in simple normal games, but the rules are meant to be for all normal games where they are allowed.

No result and your action failed are identical in the context of a normal game where the role should always get a result (as opposed to a vig or something else who don’t get told shit).

If there is a fault here, it’s with the nrg for not clarifying that a results pm needs to explicitly state blocking in the review.

There are precisely 0 worlds in which celeb is a scum neap, this is a simple game. Red herrings and implicative false innos don’t have a space in a simple game, that would inherently raise the complexity of the setup. I’m not particularly sold on this being a true claim, but if you believe the role you should believe the alignment.

[Flavor Leaf]

Eh Scum Vanilla Cop claiming Neap is a valid strategy there if that's the case.

[Flavor Leaf]

fade Hu Tao, if town, Celeb should target me. If scum, which is more likely, target literally anyone else probably.

[Bingle]

Celebloki should be leashed too, Naerys seems like a good slot.

Nah. Leashing here has too many chances to out prs, and potentially tells the scum if they need to kill/block townceleb or not. If we leash celeb to town, scum can either kill celebs target, block celeb again, or even just use celeb as a glorified scum vanilla cop if celeb is town targeting someone scum isn’t worried about. If celeb is scum, it removes all the information we can get from who celeb tries to fake an inno or guilty on.

If we leash it’s to you and you’re already obvtown.

[Bingle]

fade Hu Tao, if town, Celeb should target me. If scum, which is more likely, target literally anyone else probably.

Get out of my head (and into my car).

[Flavor Leaf]

gob (4): SirCakez, Bingle, Roden, Flavor Leaf

How Day 1 went, this is looking like occam's razor imo.

Also, considering I was starting to lean town on Gob end of the day, Bingle and Cakez had moved, it means that the majority of the wagon were people who werent willing to join at this time, and thus I believe scum ended up joining somewhere outside of this. Kyouko death also makes me believe 2 scum were off


final

gob (7): Roden, ssbm_kyouko, AnimatedWiz, Naerys, Flavor Leaf, RCEnigma, Dunnstral
SirCakez (2): Thomith, Hu Tao
RCEnigma (1): SirCakez
ssbm_kyouko (1): Celebloki
Flavor Leaf (1): gob
Roden (1): Bingle

Not voting (0):

Look at the final wagon here. Only two of us are the same from early on. One got killed and is town. This leaves AnimatedWiz, Naerys, RCE, and Dunnstral. I think there are 1 or 2 scum on that.

Let's look outside of the wagon.

Thomith, Hu Tao, SirCakez, Celebloki, Bingle are left. 1 or 2 scum here.

I do not believe Gob wagon warranted having 3 scum on them ever.

If we are in a ZERO scum on the Gob wagon, the team is EXACTLY SirCakez, Celebloki, and Bingle. This is tinfoil, but something that lines up with current play.

That being said, I don't necessarily think Cakez and Bingle both join on Gob early. Bingle also has also defended Dunnstral multiple times, and I think is a big reason Dunnstral didn't die.

I have also started to lean Dunnstral town, and apparently, Hu Tao has too. I don't actually even know Hu Tao's reads besides that they town read the people town reading them hard, and they want Naerys now.

[Flavor Leaf]

SirCakez (2): Thomith, Hu Tao

there is scum on this spot specifically somewhere. Occam's Razor, Hu Tao.

[Flavor Leaf]

Oh, it's Wiz, Hu Tao, and RCEnigma.

[Flavor Leaf]

i wanna check out kyouko and wiz stuff again. I think i liked the way she was talking about Wiz. Also, Celebloki being on her at the end of the day and deciding to target her does actually line up decently well. i definitely am coming around Celebloki not being scum.

[Flavor Leaf]

also, if you are actually town, Hu Tao, I am in either a Roden or a Bingle pocket, and would need your help in reading them, so what are your reads on the two of them?

[Hu Tao]

Am I at E-2 or E-1

[AnimatedWiz]

Why would I say I got a No Result on kyouko if I was lying about my claim though. I could just as easily say I got VT on her. I honestly didn't feel like my crumb was very well hidden and I regretted crumbing it. My best guess is scum have a roleblocker and saw my crumb and used it on me. Might as well flip me, they'll just keep role blocking me so I get no information.

Hi, I’m catching up after several open-close shifts—I should be way more free starting tomorrow since I’ve worked all my hours for the week.

Just wanted to note this during my recap—I used a similar argument to this during my scum game, where I claimed to have checked the NK and that if I was scum I would just have a better lie to look less suspicious. It ended up being really convincing for a while, but it makes me unwilling to trust this defense of his claim as a result.

[AnimatedWiz]

Hm, I’ll have to save the in-depth review for later, but it’s nice to see a lot happened.

Major notes:
Celebloki and Dunnstral, to me, seem the most obvious pairing of partners. Individually they both have acted really odd (Dunn for how they interact with people and have also been extremely tunneled onto me, Celebloki for that really hard-to-swallow claim), and the way Dunn jumped out of hiding to hard-defend Celebloki (very “get down, Mr. President) has solidified that pairing in my mind.

I am… conflicted about Hu Tao. They always act weird, and I always scumread them for it, but I kind of want to believe it’s just weirdness

again

this time unless I really get pinged.

I trust Naerys. It’s intuition only, but I just feel it, and would hate to see her go today.