In post 1216, DragonEater70 wrote:
And personality I think low-info kills are preferred in coalitoon games because of the nature of the lim pool. See Coalition of Frogs for an example of a particularly egregious N1 low info kill.
This is a bad example for your point because scum was limmed d1 in that game, which means the lim pool was not restricted after d1.
(And as the scum who chose that kill, it was sort of partially because it was low-info, but it was mostly because (1) I was near the top of the town pool and needed to kill someone random-looking at some point in the game and it felt right to do so sooner than later, which is related to the fact that it was low-info, and (2) I explicitly wanted to shoot someone who was townreading me in that gamestate, which is in a sense the opposite of it being low-info)
I think DV's play today is town very very frequently. Trying to undermine and dismantle a 1v1 between two people on coalition feels like very needlessly anti-wincon play if it's TvT, and if it's SvT then it's more possible but the way he's doing it feels like the way I'd expect him to act as town.
Dragon, why do you think T3/kyo is a very unlikely team? Based on coalition dynamics, or otherwise?
I think that I feel very dismissive of possible reasons to scumread Dragon right now which maybe I shouldn't be but I feel like there is just a pile of reasons to townread him at this point. Like I just don't really agree with anything in 1179. I guess the doubts thing is not an excellent reason to townread him but there are so many others, and I really disagree that a presence or lack of substance behind the read is even relevant to his alignment. I feel that probably for most players it's the opposite and it's less relevant to see if there is actual good logic behind the read and more relevant to see (1) are they reading/analyzing at a basic level (the answer to this will almost always be yes as either alignment but still good to check I guess) and (2) is there a reason for them to be going through the motions that they are as scum. And I don't think Dragon has a good reason to go and hammer Klick at the start of today as scum, I think he has plenty of reason to go after fire or especially to try to keep Appearance in the lim pool as scum. Instead he's doiing this weird thing where everyone else is dismissing Appearance as possible scum because of the NK but he's saying no, actually the NK is 100% meaningless, but Appearance is obvtown on play. He just keeps doing things that I feel are just procedurally more likely to draw ire than they are to actually win people over if he's scum, and if he's scum he gets to choose what performance he's performing, whereas as town he's bound by the whims of his actual feelings about the game
In post 1228, implosion wrote:
I think that I feel very dismissive of possible reasons to scumread Dragon right now which maybe I shouldn't be but I feel like there is just a pile of reasons to townread him at this point.
it does also feel that way to me
i dunno i just don't really get the feeling that you're trying to see things from my perspective here
the thing im wrestling with is that part of me thinks it wouldn't really be that bad if i do get flipped today
bc like i currently am mostly seeing a lot of reasons to townread each of the 3 remaining slots, and im struggling to figure out which of those are wrong
and i have a really hard time believing that even if i do end up with a clear scumread, it will be one that im super confident in. and i feel like i can easily forsee a future where i push for someone and am wrong and then it's elo and i probably get flipped and that is probably justified
so like there's a chance that if everyone does have it confirmed that there's scum in klick/dragon/appearance, then they'll find it easier to find the correct solve
but also at the same time i currently have that piece of info and am not really getting anywhere with it so idk
i should maybe do the exercise where i list the reasons i have to townread each slot and then decide which ones are the worst. that's been helpful in the past
In post 1173, Klick wrote:
Something just feels really off about fire as the answer.
I think I'm struggling with the idea that if Dragon/Appearance are both town then this game really should have been a win at coalition, and I've talked myself into the D1 narrative not supporting the idea that we swapped from a pass to a fail.
Remind me what is about the narrative that you believe doesn't support this? I feel like the narrative of how we actually ended up at the coalition that happened is more or less fiat of Dragon. And (if Dragon is town) then that fiat was influenced by people's opinions but it was ultimately a fiat.
Other players' (lack of) action surrounding that decision
Although I keep explicitly forgetting that kyouko was the exception to this behaviour, probably because I decided this was true when I crossed fire off as town
In post 1227, implosion wrote:
I think DV's play today is town very very frequently. Trying to undermine and dismantle a 1v1 between two people on coalition feels like very needlessly anti-wincon play if it's TvT, and if it's SvT then it's more possible but the way he's doing it feels like the way I'd expect him to act as town.
Dragon, why do you think T3/kyo is a very unlikely team? Based on coalition dynamics, or otherwise?
See, I see the possibility of DV being scum with exactly Klick, but I decided to just plain give up on that possibility because I don't see a world where we win if they are the scum team.
T3/Kyo couldn't be acum together because they just lurked for forever with no attempt to get anything done but I guess it did feel scummy for both of them individually and maybe I am in fact assigning too much credit to the idea that scum necessarily would have high WIM or a plan.
Like if fireisred flips scum here then tbh the person I am gonna lock as town as a result is DV, not T3.
In post 1173, Klick wrote:
Something just feels really off about fire as the answer.
I think I'm struggling with the idea that if Dragon/Appearance are both town then this game really should have been a win at coalition, and I've talked myself into the D1 narrative not supporting the idea that we swapped from a pass to a fail.
Remind me what is about the narrative that you believe doesn't support this? I feel like the narrative of how we actually ended up at the coalition that happened is more or less fiat of Dragon. And (if Dragon is town) then that fiat was influenced by people's opinions but it was ultimately a fiat.
Other players' (lack of) action surrounding that decision
Although I keep explicitly forgetting that kyouko was the exception to this behaviour, probably because I decided this was true when I crossed fire off as town
Klick if you are town can you just vote fire
Actually you should probably vote them also if you are scum unless they are your partner I guess.
In post 1169, implosion wrote:
but all the little aspects of their play just feel like earnest town too, things like 1149 and the wallpost followed by immediately saying that writing the wallpost raised some apprehension on the Klick scumread are maybe the kinds of things I am more inclined to townread than I should be but I feel it all fits cohesively in a world where Dragon is town.
the issue i have with that part is that i wasn't really convinced that he was truly having doubts. it's easy to post a case and then say you have doubts, but generally with a town player writing a case who begins to have doubts while writing it, you will feel those doubts start to creep in to the case itself
the fact that they didn't means that by the end of the post, he was still writing with the confidence of the prior scumread but that was apparently performed because internally he was having doubts. which again brings us back to the question of, is it town dragon putting on a performance or is it scum dragon putting on a performance
but either way i think its hard to see the having doubts portion be a sign of genuine towniness. i don't really see the reason he provided as making sense to doubt a scumread that he seemed so confident in
it's a pretty weak reflective stepback
idk i just think the trajectory in general feels like it's leaning heavily on a dramatic display of what the reads are and the changes in reads and confidence in reads, but it's lacking the substance that makes me believe this is really something he's deeply thought about
and it does seem to me like dragon is the type of player who as town will be deeply thinking about these kind of things. i just haven't really seen that visible in this game, it mostly feels fairly shallow
I actually heavily disagree about this about me. Like yeah sometimes I do have something I think about and analyze and whatever, but 80% of my reads in games are like gutreads. And especially when I have a logic-based read clashing with a gutread I often just follow the gutread without thinking about it too much.
For example in the coalition phase logic told me Klick was scum but gut said he was town so in the end I included him in the coalition without heavily thinking about it at all. And yes I'm aware this is meta from this game so it doesn't prove anything but it does show a consistent approach.
In post 1217, DragonEater70 wrote:
Can you explain to me the progression from a massive TR on me to top SR, which according to what you have posted so far is based ONLY on my reaction to gob's death? Like does a different reaction ping you THAT MUCH that you'd completely abandon your previous read? Or were there more elements to it which you haven't expressed?
It's less 'you're my top scumread based only on the gob's death reaction' and more 'this has really pinged me and I want to explore the possibility that my townread on you is inaccurate'
I abandoned an overall opinion on you for the moment in favor of putting weight towards a new finding
If the new finding was explainable from town!Dragon and made sense, I can map that onto what I already have for town!Dragon
If the new finding was not explainable from town!Dragon or didn't make sense, I might need to reeval more generally
All evidence points to the correct conclusion looked at under the right lens
I'm taking different lenses and trying to make sense of them
In post 1220, fireisredsir wrote:
dragon, what are your thoughts on a potential scum!klick's motivations for relinquishing control of the coalition vote to you?
1. Pocket me as I had already said on Day 1 when you were queationing me on why I was thinking Klick might've been pocketing me.
2. Have clean hands when the coalition fails.
3. Look extra towny for doing an act that "endangers his wincon"
That said, I don't think your questioning trajectory is a towny one.
Maybe next game I'll roll scum and fake posts like the ones I made this game and will talk about how obvtown I am and have wildly changing trajectories and reads.
In post 1201, DeasVail wrote:
I think I’m going to ask klick and Dragon to stop fighting
VOTE: fireisredsir
DV is such a sweetheart. And tbh if the scum team is Klick/DV, I'd happily lose the game.
Also I'll stop fighting with Klick if he apologizes. Yes, it's childish. But I feel entitled to being childish here, because Klick is also being childish in scumreading me for not prioritizing his questions over real life (yes, that's VERY childish of me. Sorry about that, need to get this out of my system. Also Klick should know that regardless of anything I am saying here I actually like him very much as a person and I'm just being salty).
In post 1202, DeasVail wrote:
Something I liked about dragon’s play Day 1 was that there seemed to be a genuine conflict between him wanting his page 7 solve to be correct and him wanting his page x solve to be correct
What is my page x solve? Or like what exactly are you referencing here?
By page x I mean whatever page the game happened to be on at the time :p
And I didn’t mean “fighting” as in truly fighting. I just think Fire is the best way to go atm
Yeah I know, I was deliberately misinterpreting your post so I could get a reaction out of Klick. Didn't fully work but whatever.
In post 817, fireisredsir wrote:
oh yeah 481 was a major post that i scumread from spec. that one's really hard for me to see as genuine
In post 807, fireisredsir wrote:
ok i keep running into more of these posts, and i think from spec the biggest thing that rang alarm bells for me about dragon was how he kept repeatedly saying "wow i hope klick isn't pocketing me!!" in a way that felt extremely forced bc nothing that klick was doing looked like it could resemble pocketing dragon and if anything it looked way more like the opposite
and that felt like the kind of thing that i like to do as scum a lot except it was done in a much more sloppy way imo. i like to think at least that there's some finesse to the play
having read more closely now (on page 12) ill have a bit more to say about more general stuff once i have some time to type words
I truly am not sure of the scumread there by any means, but of everyone on the coalition, I think Appearance has fit the most with what I expect from scumplay. I know that it is common to interpret appearance’s style of play as scummy, but I just don’t think it’s Dragon, and I agree that Ydrasse was townie.
I'm not really sure how to read Appareance. I've gone through his ISO and tracked his reads on specific players and everything logically checked out.
In post 909, T3 wrote:
Like there were no reads in which I had no idea how he could have got there
this is also more or less what i look for in appearance. i think as scum he has a harder time generating thoughts and so they sometimes seem to come out of nowhere. here it feels more like the thoughts are coming organically as a result of reading the thread, and most of the time there isn't that feeling of being pressured
In post 971, fireisredsir wrote:
to fully cover bases i did briefly consider if a dragon/klick scum world is viable and pretty quickly decided that no it isn't. i think like the entirety of everything would have played out differently if that was the case
In post 1220, fireisredsir wrote:
dragon, what are your thoughts on a potential scum!klick's motivations for relinquishing control of the coalition vote to you?
1. Pocket me as I had already said on Day 1 when you were queationing me on why I was thinking Klick might've been pocketing me.
2. Have clean hands when the coalition fails.
3. Look extra towny for doing an act that "endangers his wincon"
That said, I don't think your questioning trajectory is a towny one.
the thing i was looking for was if there was any thought from you about whether klick scum would be in danger if losing by proposing that, and if not, who his partner is
like i don't think "endangers wincon" should be in quotes. you were very clearly considering leaving him out
the only way that it's a guaranteed safe play for him is if either him or his partner are for sure going to be in the coalition you choose
and it doesn't feel like you've thought about this at all which is strange to me because it feels like a very important consideration when it comes to solving this game
