Open 901 - Normal Idea Mafia Redux - Postgame

[Alianna]

Bloop

[JacksonVirgo]

Bruh

[Save The Dragons]

Fuck it

intent

[JacksonVirgo]

Don't hammer yet

[JacksonVirgo]

I'm cooking

[Black]

I guess what I'm thinking is if Sky has a role that only scum has then she would have to claim something else

[JacksonVirgo]

Why? It gives her claim some surface level credibility if she true-claimed a sole-neighbour

[Black]

I don't understand your comment. I'm saying if she has the role 2-Shot Roleblocker or something and the only 2-Shot Roleblocker on the list is a scum role then she can't claim that

If she's actually a scum neighbor then yeah she would just true-claim neighbor

[Black]

I just don't understand why she has to be a neighbor just because she said she is. It's really not that important but that comment confused me

[Save The Dragons]

It's not important but she would risk being counter claimed if she was lying about it

[Jake The Wolfie]

Nah, I think this is scum!sky

I feel like there is usually a point in Sky's town games where she buckles down and really starts to think critically about the game. I haven't seen that at all here. She's just coasting

Like I think sky posts reactively a lot but when she's town there's usually a moment where she feels guilty about not doing anything and then starts to be proactive for a bit before she slides off into obscurity again. I've seen it after her being pushed before but she got to e-1 and she's still just lurking around

I would like you to prove your case here.
Is her current gameplay consistent with her scumplay, and atypical of her townplay? Provide a few of her games as evidence.

[JacksonVirgo]

Spoiler: Math

86 Town
26 Mafia
25 Werewolves
13 Serial Killers

Neighbour Roles

20 - Town Neighbour Neighbourizer
21 - Mafia Neighbour Combined Rolecop Neighbourizer
22 - Town Neighbour
26 - Town Neighbour Messenger
11 - Werewolf Neighbor Messenger
110 - Mafia Neighbour

3 Town. 2 Mafia. 1 Werewolf.

Roughly 3.5% of the Town are neighbours.
Roughly 7.69% (nice) of the Mafia are neighbours.
Exactly 4% of the werewolves are neighbours

TOWN

• 10 total attempts at 3.5%
  
• 1 - (1 - 0.035)^10
  
• Roughly 30% chance one exists.

MAFIA

• 3 total attempts at 7.69%
  
• 1 - (1 - 0.0769)^3
  
• Roughly 21.3% chance one exists (if this faction is confirmed 100%)

WEREWOLVES

• 3 total attempts at 4%
  
• 1 - (1 - 0.04)^3
  
• Roughly 11.53% chance one exists (if this faction is confirmed 100%)

SERIAL KILLER

• 1 total attempts at 0%
  
• 1 - (1 - 0)^1
  
• Exactly 0% chance one exists
  
• I did this because it's hilarious

Since we don't know which scum team we have the total odds for an evil neighbour rolling is

• (0.5 * 0.213) + (0.5 * 0.1153) + 0.0
  
• Roughly 16.43%

Once we find out the evil faction we can just use their individual odds, which is less than Town's anyway.

If my math is wrong, please correct me.

TL;DR substantially higher chance that any given Neighbour is a Town role.
I don't actually care for statistics in Mafia but I felt this would be fun to do so I did it

[JacksonVirgo]

I don't understand your comment. I'm saying if she has the role 2-Shot Roleblocker or something and the only 2-Shot Roleblocker on the list is a scum role then she can't claim that

If she's actually a scum neighbor then yeah she would just true-claim neighbor

That's not a fair comparison at all though, this has nothing to do with Skygazer's claim.

I just don't understand why she has to be a neighbor just because she said she is. It's really not that important but that comment confused me

I don't see her ever fake-claiming neighbour specifically unless she is one. Regardless of alignment, it doesn't make sense to fake-claim it therefore she likely is

[JacksonVirgo]

What are the reasons a scum would fake-claim Neighbour when she isn't one?

[JacksonVirgo]

Even if you have to stretch to reach some reasons I don't mind

[JacksonVirgo]

Nah, I think this is scum!sky

I feel like there is usually a point in Sky's town games where she buckles down and really starts to think critically about the game. I haven't seen that at all here. She's just coasting

Like I think sky posts reactively a lot but when she's town there's usually a moment where she feels guilty about not doing anything and then starts to be proactive for a bit before she slides off into obscurity again. I've seen it after her being pushed before but she got to e-1 and she's still just lurking around

I would like you to prove your case here.
Is her current gameplay consistent with her scumplay, and atypical of her townplay? Provide a few of her games as evidence.

Will you read and compare those games?

[Jake The Wolfie]

Jackson, what do you think the relevance of your argument with Black is? Does it really even matter who is right?

[Save The Dragons]

See I was right town is more likely

even if I didn't know it

bask in my brilliance

[Jake The Wolfie]

Nah, I think this is scum!sky

I feel like there is usually a point in Sky's town games where she buckles down and really starts to think critically about the game. I haven't seen that at all here. She's just coasting

Like I think sky posts reactively a lot but when she's town there's usually a moment where she feels guilty about not doing anything and then starts to be proactive for a bit before she slides off into obscurity again. I've seen it after her being pushed before but she got to e-1 and she's still just lurking around

I would like you to prove your case here.
Is her current gameplay consistent with her scumplay, and atypical of her townplay? Provide a few of her games as evidence.

Will you read and compare those games?

Yes. I may not like constructing a meta case against someone, but I'd be willing to follow up on a meta case that I'm requesting.

[JacksonVirgo]

Does it really even matter who is right?

...yes? If I'm right, we don't mislim a town?

[JacksonVirgo]

I feel I'm misunderstanding your question

[JacksonVirgo]

Yes. I may not like constructing a meta case against someone, but I'd be willing to follow up on a meta case that I'm requesting.

Yeah alright, cuz I see countless times people ask for these things and then proceed to do

nothing

with it to a point where I get icky seeing someone ask for it

[SirCakez]

hello hello

[JacksonVirgo]

hello hello

[SirCakez]

Sorry for calling what you did a bronze rank strat

I appreciate this btw, this is why I always try to just walk away for a while when I feel myself getting too heated