Open 899 - The Pizza Kids Coalition [Game Over]

[DragonEater70]

Reiterating what I said on Sunday: I wanna sit and reread all of fire's ISO this evening, and see if their accusations of me being disingenuous/stupid/uncharitable/ommitting important parts in how I'm reading them holds water or not. After which I'll either hammer or not.

[DragonEater70]

Reading fire's iso

1230 is just completely off from a town's viewpoint. If she doesn't know who to elim she shouldn't be defaulting to herself as town, she should work to find who to elim. Like how is a miselim on town!fire going to help us figure out the scum. Specifically they say "if everyone knows there's confirmed scum in Klick/Dragon/App then it'd be easier to figure out the scum there" but wouldn't it be confirmed to town!fire that there's scum in us and yet they're struggling?

1249 misunderstands me in a way which I could see coming from town but I do think is likelier to come from scum because instead of asking me about the thing they don't understand, they just say it's weird and it feels like an excuse to scumread/discredit me.

Anyway I do feel obliged to answer that unasked question: I think I made it clear that if Klick is scum then I think DV might be his partner and vice versa. Both Klick and DV were widely townread during the end of the coalition phase. True, I tried to remove them from the coalition, but they did a LOT to win back my favor before the coalition was locked in. They didn't all-out panic because that would kinda implicate them as scum, but they definitely made a lot of towny-looking posts which I am not even sure were necessary at that point. So to me if Klick was scum, saying he'd sheep me was basically taking a calculated risk knowing I was TRing both him and DV, and reinforcing that TR by making a lot of towny posts. And he could always just not sheep me and say "sorry I think this composition loses".

Anyhow moving on

So in looking at fire's iso, in post 1373 she says that 1285 was not really the reason why she was scumreading me but only an explanation of why her reasons for TRing me suck.

But if you actually go through her ISO I don't feel this makes sense as a progression because in 1230 (which I talked about just now) she said she basically TRs me and Klick equally and it doesn't really sound she has any up-to-date reasons to scunread me. Then there are a bunch of posts questioning stuff and talking about how she's gonna solve and then there's suddenly 1280 where she TR's Klick followed by 1285 where she explains why the townread on me sucks, and then when I accuse her of having of being hedgy she says I'm reading her in bad faith and that she clearly scumreads me over Klick.
And honestly maybe I am reading fire in bad faith but I can't make sense of her progression at all. Maybe it's my fault though.

Fuck, I am gonna need to spend an hour or something trying to figure out if I am just terribly misunderstanding fire or if their narrative is really that inconsistent. Because honestly my own interpretation stopped making sense to me atp.

[DragonEater70]

Okay I just went through Kyouko's ISO again and I feel this is town!Kyouko. I know I currently do not have a long list of games where I correctly read Kyo to support this, in fact only one completed game (Large Normal 246 as Broccoli Quest 2), but I do feel highly confident in my ability to correctly read her and I don't think this is scum Kyo. I am not as confident here as I was in that game because I have a lower sample size of big Kyoko posts, but I do think they are mostly town!Kyo rather than scum Kyo posts.

I also tried to back off for a bit from my sort of 1v1 with fire and I have to say, I do still feel justified in scunreading them because their progression this game feels extremely weak, but I guess I can at least see some sort of progression. If I understand correctly, this is what they were thinking mostly:

- They saw me talking about being pocketed by Klick and thought that it was a show to get townread. And they ignored my explanation of why I said that.
- They saw a lot of performative posts by me and couldn't figure out if it was town performative or scum performative (which ia honestly not a reason to SR me but whatever).
- they did however TR the fact I was so indecisive about the coalition and my town energy there.
- they also thought Klick's progression and vote on me were iffy.
- they didn't understand my thought process on Klick and instead of asking they decided to tunnel me (weird)
- they then decided to dismiss the Klick scumread (idk why) and also decided that I could act the way I did toward end of coalition as scum, and this out them in a position where the possibility of scum performativeness, reading ke in bad faith due to tunnel, and thinking my thought about Klick pocketing me were fake, were enough to make me their biggest SR.

Idk how I feel about this progression tbh.

I do still feel Klick's progression on me is iffy though and I still can't really see any good partner to fireisred except T3.

[DragonEater70]

I am giving this game way more time than I ought to

That being said I am going to continue my train of thought right now

I feel Klick's approach to this day phase is not really in line with how I think town!Klick plays at all. Like his attitudes from the end of last day to now look more less like this:
"Dragon is my top / very strong TR"
"Dragon's lack of NK speculation pinged me so I am going to forget about my TR and question him"
"Dragon is scum because he isn't answering my question and because he is tunneling me"
"why should I unvote you, dragon?"
"okay let's explore other options"
"I'll vote fire without explanation"
"I don't think DV or Dragon are scum and I'm meh about fire. Also I don't want to think about Dragon's alignment"

Note how he didn't explore Appearance, or even tried to find fireisred as town or tried to solidify a scumread on him before placing a vote.

Like I could see why a town player could be frustrated with this day phase because I am very frustrated with it, but I just don't think this is a frustration town!Klick has from seeing his reaction to TvT's in previous games. And the complete lack of engagement in the last few real life days is concerning to me becasue I also don't think that's something I see often from town!Klick. On the other hand he did imply that there is something IRL that annoyed him a few days ago so idk if this is significant.

And I am not really expressing my problem with Klick's progression as well as I'd like to, so let me try to put it more concisely: the emotional reaction feels off, the overall thought process is severely lacking (not necessarily because it doesn't exist but because Klick hasn't posted it), and the progression from me to fire feels too convenient, almost as if DV asked him to switch in the scum PT (which DV did do in-thread btw).

BUT what gives me serious pause is that I agree with implo's assessment that IDK if scum Klick is good enough and has enough energy/WIM to lead the coalition.

[DragonEater70]

Another thing that bothers me is that Klick ignored several questions I directed at him, such as what conclusion did he reach by looking at the game through various different lenses.

[DragonEater70]

All of which is to say that I actually have no idea who is scum here

Like I want Klick to be town and fire scum so that my page 6 solve can be correct, but I also want fire to be town and Klick scum so I could have this epic narrative of breaking out of a tunnel and catching the scum that pocketed me

And I am not saying this in a flight of fantasy way, I do actually feel like my read on both slots is colored by these desires which make me struggle in being objective.

I guess that's part of why it's called a *social* deduction game

Anyhow

Does anybody not named fireisred or DV has any insight regarding all this.

[fireisredsir]

im named fireisred and im feeling unsure about all of this

this feels like a pretty unnecessary path for scum dragon to take

[fireisredsir]

why don't you want DV's thoughts

[Klick]

I ignored them mostly because I forgot about them. I can answer that last one now

I think I'm most likely to be wrong about the things that feel iffy about you. The evidence that you're just town here feels legitimate. Your explanation for not finding the gob death surprising seems real enough to be true.

I think fire scum viability is high here, and regardless I think eliminating him probably does the healthiest thing for the gamestate if we miss compared to other options

(@Dragon)

[Klick]

Basically I think assuming this round will be a miss is a pretty reasonable approach at the moment

[DragonEater70]

why don't you want DV's thoughts

Idk

I feel like I heard your thoughts and his more than anybody this day ohase and I want to hear other people's.

[fireisredsir]

1230 is just completely off from a town's viewpoint. If she doesn't know who to elim she shouldn't be defaulting to herself as town, she should work to find who to elim. Like how is a miselim on town!fire going to help us figure out the scum. Specifically they say "if everyone knows there's confirmed scum in Klick/Dragon/App then it'd be easier to figure out the scum there" but wouldn't it be confirmed to town!fire that there's scum in us and yet they're struggling?

i mean basically because i agree with this:

I think fire scum viability is high here, and regardless I think eliminating him probably does the healthiest thing for the gamestate if we miss compared to other options

i think if we're wrong elsewhere we just lose. but if people see that they're wrong on me then maybe they can sort things out

im struggling because i have a hard time figuring out who is scum when most of the thread suspects me. this is an issue i run into often as town it's not a new thing

[DragonEater70]

Basically I think assuming this round will be a miss is a pretty reasonable approach at the moment

This is what makes me feel so annoyed

[DragonEater70]

1230 is just completely off from a town's viewpoint. If she doesn't know who to elim she shouldn't be defaulting to herself as town, she should work to find who to elim. Like how is a miselim on town!fire going to help us figure out the scum. Specifically they say "if everyone knows there's confirmed scum in Klick/Dragon/App then it'd be easier to figure out the scum there" but wouldn't it be confirmed to town!fire that there's scum in us and yet they're struggling?

i mean basically because i agree with this:

I think fire scum viability is high here, and regardless I think eliminating him probably does the healthiest thing for the gamestate if we miss compared to other options

i think if we're wrong elsewhere we just lose. but if people see that they're wrong on me then maybe they can sort things out

im struggling because i have a hard time figuring out who is scum when most of the thread suspects me. this is an issue i run into often as town it's not a new thing

How can I vote you when you say things like this though

[DragonEater70]

Basically I think assuming this round will be a miss is a pretty reasonable approach at the moment

This is what makes me feel so annoyed

I don't think I am being immature by saying that I DON'T WANNA MISS, and I am annoyed people take missing for granted, and I just want to fucking solve the game and feel good about solving it but I can't

[DragonEater70]

why don't you want DV's thoughts

Idk

I feel like I heard your thoughts and his more than anybody this day ohase and I want to hear other people's.

I literally forgot how to grammar.

I feel like I've heard your thoughts and his more than anybody else's this day phase, and I want to hear other people's thoughts as well.

[fireisredsir]

i mean for full transparency i would like appreciate if people decided on their own that they didn't want to lim me here because obviously that gives us a better chance at winning. but i know that if we flip someone else who's town today then i like very likely and understandably get voted by town tomorrow and i think that's worse and it's hard for me to take the risk of being wrong

i also just don't really like fighting against my own elimination especially when several of the people pushing me have to be town. i do take it as a compliment that people think i could be scum here lol so im not like upset about it. i would prefer if they found me as town but if they don't that's probably on me

you might be right that it isnt like a very good or correct town mindset to have but it is one nonetheless

[fireisredsir]

But if you actually go through her ISO I don't feel this makes sense as a progression because in 1230 (which I talked about just now) she said she basically TRs me and Klick equally and it doesn't really sound she has any up-to-date reasons to scunread me.

so i think we probably approach reading people very differently

but at that point i had a lot of reasons that i felt were strong reasons to scumread you. however this was at the time being outweighed by something that i thought only made sense coming from town

and like as a general mafia philosophy i tend to believe that one extremely towny thing can outweigh a lot of scummy things

so overall despite me feeling like i mostly had reasons to scumread you, i felt like i couldn't logically give then the weight that i instinctively wanted to, because i thought i might just be wrong overall due to the towny thing

i think that's why i got excited when i felt like i found a reason that made sense for you to post like that as scum. it made the pieces finally align and it felt like everything clicked. and i do think it's possible i got over-eager to see things in a way that made to pieces fit and i think i probably tunneled a bit because of it

[fireisredsir]

oops sorry i was supposed to not give thoughts bye

[Klick]

I think just looking at right here and now that all three of us are taking an unintuitive approach here as scum and Appearance has the least towny approach to today in general
But that's a very Level 0 analysis
The problem is that I wouldn't expect different from specifically fire

[fireisredsir]

can you talk about what you think my goals would be as scum and how i would be going about them here?

or is that more of a vague "fire could be doing whatever as scum"

[Klick]

From what I've observed of your scum game and heard from your description in the past, a lot of your focus seems to be on demonstrating a very realistic, in-depth thought process that makes it very difficult for people to question that your process isn't legitimate. You like putting yourself really deep into a fake thought process and being reflective about it to give it depth and authenticity.

When I think about what the differences would be between your town and scum games, my theory is that there would be a more noticeable, intentional breadcrumbing of said thought process as scum - because your primary goal would be for people to pick up on this, instead of that being a residual effect of having those genuine thoughts. And I guess something having me leaning potential scum on you is that I feel like the things that I've initially pinged town on you about have felt overt enough that they make sense to be intentional choices as scum.

I know that’s not particularly satisfying from your perspective as either alignment because it's hard to verify and it's all in theoretical. But without feeling like there's much else I can go off of to accurately identify your alignment and having townreads on the other two, this is kind of the best I've got

[fireisredsir]

i think that's fairly insightful and does feel like you've given this some significant thought which i am glad to see

i think your theory is probably on the right track to what i would expect are the differences as well. although i think the distinction is that faking a town mindset and progression is not generally my primary goal as scum, it's more of a side effect. the main goal is identifying a path to victory and planning in advance how my posting needs to evolve over time in order to accomplish that. i dont think my primary goal is ever for people to pick up on my mindset being consistent, because 99% of the time nobody actually reads or tracks things closely enough to notice. honestly i mostly do it for fun

my play this game i think if analyzed from the right lens would be noticeably lacking a scum plan although it's hard to say objectively what my play looks like from an outside viewing angle. i just know that i don't have one, so it isn't there, and probably there's signs of that although i don't know what they are

[fireisredsir]

Like I could see why a town player could be frustrated with this day phase because I am very frustrated with it, but I just don't think this is a frustration town!Klick has from seeing his reaction to TvT's in previous games.

i am confused by this take because i don't think Klick's perspective here has been that it is a TvT so im not sure why you're making that comparison

[fireisredsir]

while i am here i will also just throw out there that if it isn't dragon i am mildly worried that t3 could have been trying to pocket me/prop up my push earlier