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Post Post #350 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:06 am

Post by CUDDLE TIME »

In post 329, Klick wrote: On me specifically, I feel like ActionDan wants to express skepticism of me without actually committing to something resembling a vote or a scumread:
That's actually something that's pinged me back then, and I'd be willing to consider AD as Kira, but I first want to look at the possibility of Gimli!Kira.
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Post Post #351 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:06 am

Post by CUDDLE TIME »

In post 350, CUDDLE TIME wrote:
In post 329, Klick wrote: On me specifically, I feel like ActionDan wants to express skepticism of me without actually committing to something resembling a vote or a scumread:
That's actually something that's pinged me back then, and I'd be willing to consider AD as Kira, but I first want to look at the possibility of Gimli!Kira.
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Post Post #352 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:07 am

Post by Aureal »

In post 326, Radical Rat wrote: Gimli and Dan, in the event that you are actually a Follower instead.

If I'm to suppose I'm completely wrong and you're actually Town, then I'm kind of back to square one. Absent confounding evidence though, I'd be happy to just lim You > Gimli > Dan.
We're not actually gonna get flips though, so there's a good chance we wouldn't know until postgame whether Klick is town or follower. :?
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Post Post #353 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:18 am

Post by Aureal »

In post 348, CUDDLE TIME wrote: Reading Aureal's post: yes, jarring is exactly the word to describe that pivot.

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And so was yours, lol

I'll consider your case later, my brain is breaking down at this point since I've been sitting here trying to figure out what people are thinking for way too long, it's giving me a headache and I need lunch and my initial feelings are that we're all just town getting jumpy because things feel too easy.
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Post Post #354 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:19 am

Post by Klick »

In post 347, Radical Rat wrote: In Gimli's case, it's that his assessment of your actions was inconsistent with your own. Like it was a prepared thing he had to say, that didn't actually line up with what was happening.

For Dragon, it's the hypersensitivity. As soon as I voted you, suddenly I must be scum and my prodding at Gimli to determine his relationship with you is actually because he's my buddy. Didn't even try to ask questions and see if there's anything behind my push, just straight to the chainsaw. This is something that scum will frequently do by mistake with their partners in regular games, and is exacerbated here by the importance of keeping Kira specifically alive. It is also something I see scum get away with as "too scummy to be scum," which is never a concept I've been fond of.

When I initially voted you, it was a suspicion. When Dragon jumped on me for it, it was a confirmation.
Gimli's interpretation of my posting makes sense to me but that's probably not that helpful to you!

I feel like you're doing mental shortcuts to the simplest explanation and clinging onto it as like, your way of viewing the game. I'm not convinced it means you're scum, but it is similar to how you played out Cosmos. I'm inclined to think the way you're doing it here is towny. It feels more pure.

Beyond that, I feel like Dragon himself responded well to the bit about him. I feel like we have a mismatch in how we view Mafia fundamentals. I also think 'too scummy to be scum' is nonsense but that's because it assumes a general 'scummy' behavior and everyone's 'scummy' is different. But I think that's very different from what you're saying.
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Post Post #355 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:19 am

Post by Klick »

In post 353, Aureal wrote:
In post 348, CUDDLE TIME wrote: Reading Aureal's post: yes, jarring is exactly the word to describe that pivot.

- Dragon
And so was yours, lol

I'll consider your case later, my brain is breaking down at this point since I've been sitting here trying to figure out what people are thinking for way too long, it's giving me a headache and I need lunch and my initial feelings are that we're all just town getting jumpy because things feel too easy.
This is basically what I think yes
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Post Post #356 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:21 am

Post by CUDDLE TIME »

In post 353, Aureal wrote:
In post 348, CUDDLE TIME wrote: Reading Aureal's post: yes, jarring is exactly the word to describe that pivot.

- Dragon
And so was yours, lol

I'll consider your case later, my brain is breaking down at this point since I've been sitting here trying to figure out what people are thinking for way too long, it's giving me a headache and I need lunch and my initial feelings are that we're all just town getting jumpy because things feel too easy.
Understandable, have a good lunch.

Who are the obvious scum in the scenario where the game is "too easy"? I don't really see any "obvious" scum other than HPE who I don't think is Kira.

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Post Post #357 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:23 am

Post by Klick »

HPE/ActionDan/Drew in some variety is my current default solve
I'll accept Gimli being a wildcard because I probably townread him even when he's scum
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Post Post #358 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:32 am

Post by Radical Rat »

In post 349, CUDDLE TIME wrote:
In post 347, Radical Rat wrote: In Gimli's case, it's that his assessment of your actions was inconsistent with your own. Like it was a prepared thing he had to say, that didn't actually line up with what was happening.

For Dragon, it's the hypersensitivity. As soon as I voted you, suddenly I must be scum and my prodding at Gimli to determine his relationship with you is actually because he's my buddy. Didn't even try to ask questions and see if there's anything behind my push, just straight to the chainsaw. This is something that scum will frequently do by mistake with their partners in regular games, and is exacerbated here by the importance of keeping Kira specifically alive. It is also something I see scum get away with as "too scummy to be scum," which is never a concept I've been fond of.

When I initially voted you, it was a suspicion. When Dragon jumped on me for it, it was a confirmation.
I don't believe you actually think I'd chainsaw Kira so obviously here and without any reasoning even. I didn't jump on you for the vote on Klick, I "jumped on you" for the lack of vote on Gimli. And actually I jumped on Gimli, I'm not even scumreading you directly. So your presentation is false.

- Dragon
Scumreading me as being Gimli's follower is absolutely a scumread on me, just as I'm scumreading you for being Klick's. I am voting for Klick because I believe him to be Kira, which is our win condition. As a follower imitating that, I'd expect you to actually vote for who you believe you could more easily sell as Kira, which in the narrative you've concocted is Gimli.

As for what I believe you'd do, that is irrelevant compared to what I am actively observing you doing.
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Post Post #359 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:35 am

Post by CUDDLE TIME »

Well you factually aren't observing me chainsawing because I'm not scum, so belief definitely does factor into it. I don't really get how yoy can claim belief is irrelevant.

What I am asking you is not whether you believe I attacked you/Gimli after you attacked Klick (which is an observable fact), but rather, whether that's something I'd do as Klick's follower (which is not a fact but only your belief).

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Post Post #360 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:36 am

Post by Klick »

I feel like the things I've said to RR have gone in one ear and out the other
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Post Post #361 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:44 am

Post by Radical Rat »

In post 354, Klick wrote:
In post 347, Radical Rat wrote: In Gimli's case, it's that his assessment of your actions was inconsistent with your own. Like it was a prepared thing he had to say, that didn't actually line up with what was happening.

For Dragon, it's the hypersensitivity. As soon as I voted you, suddenly I must be scum and my prodding at Gimli to determine his relationship with you is actually because he's my buddy. Didn't even try to ask questions and see if there's anything behind my push, just straight to the chainsaw. This is something that scum will frequently do by mistake with their partners in regular games, and is exacerbated here by the importance of keeping Kira specifically alive. It is also something I see scum get away with as "too scummy to be scum," which is never a concept I've been fond of.

When I initially voted you, it was a suspicion. When Dragon jumped on me for it, it was a confirmation.
Gimli's interpretation of my posting makes sense to me but that's probably not that helpful to you!

I feel like you're doing mental shortcuts to the simplest explanation and clinging onto it as like, your way of viewing the game. I'm not convinced it means you're scum, but it is similar to how you played out Cosmos. I'm inclined to think the way you're doing it here is towny. It feels more pure.

Beyond that, I feel like Dragon himself responded well to the bit about him. I feel like we have a mismatch in how we view Mafia fundamentals. I also think 'too scummy to be scum' is nonsense but that's because it assumes a general 'scummy' behavior and everyone's 'scummy' is different. But I think that's very different from what you're saying.
What I'm saying is that scum will frequently make mistakes that give themselves up, and that something being a bad move for scum does not mean that scum won't make that move anyway. I've seen D1 chainsaws based on minimal pressure before. I've seen scum accidentally claim themselves into guilties before. I have personally done some very silly things as scum before. In all cases, I have had far more success catching scum by pushing on these mistakes than I have by letting myself believe scum wouldn't make them.

This is also what I mean when I say that my personal belief is irrelevant compared to my observations of reality.
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Post Post #362 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:45 am

Post by HighPrincessErinys »

life would be so much easier if we had actual flips. 1000 curses on enchant for no-reveals
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Post Post #363 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:47 am

Post by Radical Rat »

In post 360, Klick wrote: I feel like the things I've said to RR have gone in one ear and out the other
To an extent. I am reading and considering, but I am also coming from the perspective that you are attempting to manipulate me off of you.
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Post Post #364 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:53 am

Post by Radical Rat »

In post 352, Aureal wrote:
In post 326, Radical Rat wrote: Gimli and Dan, in the event that you are actually a Follower instead.

If I'm to suppose I'm completely wrong and you're actually Town, then I'm kind of back to square one. Absent confounding evidence though, I'd be happy to just lim You > Gimli > Dan.
We're not actually gonna get flips though, so there's a good chance we wouldn't know until postgame whether Klick is town or follower. :?
That'd be where the potential for confounding evidence comes in. If someone is able to generate guilties outside that PoE, or innos within it, or grant us Klick's flip, and we trust whoever does so, then I would reevaluate. If that doesn't happen, we should hopefully still have two days to figure out where we went wrong.
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Post Post #365 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:55 am

Post by Klick »

We are in the 70% world where I'm town trying to show you things that you are able to verify by looking into them
The assumptions you are making are valid when you don't have context but are superfluous when you do
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Post Post #366 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:09 am

Post by Radical Rat »

Am I able to verify that you have played this way recently? Probably, if I were inclined to meta dive. I believe you on that front.

Am I able to verify that this is a good enough reason to describe suppositions with little explanation or follow-up as having "investigative depth?" Not really. I'd have liked to have heard from Gimli directly before all of this, but Dragon's reaction gave me the certainty I was lacking, and now I fear the well may be poisoned for Gimli's potential response. Not that he shouldn't still explain, just that analysis of it will be more difficult now.

Am I able to verify that Dragon thought the most reasonable explanation for me prodding Gimli about his opinions and ties to you is that Gimli is Kira that I have decided to make a show of interacting with for an excuse to pivot from someone unrelated to any of this? Not without some sort of mind reading apparatus.
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Post Post #367 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:19 am

Post by Klick »

Meh
All I can really say is that I disagree with your interpretation of Gimli's behavior and think your confidence is unjustified
I think you're probably town from this exchange fwiw!
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Post Post #368 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:25 am

Post by T-Bone »

In post 320, CUDDLE TIME wrote: VOTE: Gimli
HURT: RR

Will elaborate on this later but I wanna see if anyone else is seeing what I'm seeing first

- Dragon
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Post Post #369 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 1:17 pm

Post by Doctor Drew »

In post 367, Klick wrote: Meh
All I can really say is that I disagree with your interpretation of Gimli's behavior and think your confidence is unjustified
I think you're probably town from this exchange fwiw!
Can you show me the work why you think they are town?
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Post Post #370 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 4:05 pm

Post by Doctor Drew »

In post 364, Radical Rat wrote:
In post 352, Aureal wrote:
In post 326, Radical Rat wrote: Gimli and Dan, in the event that you are actually a Follower instead.

If I'm to suppose I'm completely wrong and you're actually Town, then I'm kind of back to square one. Absent confounding evidence though, I'd be happy to just lim You > Gimli > Dan.
We're not actually gonna get flips though, so there's a good chance we wouldn't know until postgame whether Klick is town or follower. :?
That'd be where the potential for confounding evidence comes in. If someone is able to generate guilties outside that PoE, or innos within it, or grant us Klick's flip, and we trust whoever does so, then I would reevaluate. If that doesn't happen, we should hopefully still have two days to figure out where we went wrong.
Can you clarify this? I don't know exactly what you mean here
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Post Post #371 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 4:06 pm

Post by Doctor Drew »

I really don't like this dynamic between Klick and Rat if it isn't clear
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Post Post #372 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 4:28 pm

Post by Radical Rat »

In post 370, Doctor Drew wrote:
In post 364, Radical Rat wrote:
In post 352, Aureal wrote:
In post 326, Radical Rat wrote: Gimli and Dan, in the event that you are actually a Follower instead.

If I'm to suppose I'm completely wrong and you're actually Town, then I'm kind of back to square one. Absent confounding evidence though, I'd be happy to just lim You > Gimli > Dan.
We're not actually gonna get flips though, so there's a good chance we wouldn't know until postgame whether Klick is town or follower. :?
That'd be where the potential for confounding evidence comes in. If someone is able to generate guilties outside that PoE, or innos within it, or grant us Klick's flip, and we trust whoever does so, then I would reevaluate. If that doesn't happen, we should hopefully still have two days to figure out where we went wrong.
Can you clarify this? I don't know exactly what you mean here
Some skills can give us similar information to a flip if they're in the game, some skills (and detective) can generate innos or guilties, and the game's continued running in the scenario where none of that happens and all three of my suspects die means that none of them were Kira, but since we have until Day 5 unless the detective dies, we would still have at least two days to figure the rest out.
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Post Post #373 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 4:42 pm

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Post Post #374 (ISO) » Tue Feb 20, 2024 4:43 pm

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