Mini Theme 2328: Death Note: Second Page. Day 3!

[CUDDLE TIME]

If someone has knowledge that ActionDan was not the Assistant, I strongly believe they should claim that information now.

I don't think ActionDan was fakeclaiming, but I want to limit scum's ability to go back and say 'oh yeah I'm actually the Assistant'.

No one counter claimed ActionDan and it makes me think his claim was real.

- A

[HighPrincessErinys]

I think I hard disagree

Regardless, if we have no evidence to the contrary, I'm heavily inclined to just assume that ActionDan was really the Assistant
There's not actually a ton of reason for a Follower to claim like that

If Dan was a follower, the only thing that makes sense is trying to bait Assistant (or, unlikely, Detective) or use the claim as a cudgel (see: the fact he was only at e-3 when claiming)

[Aureal]

I still think cuddle time is pretty townie and D1 end of day isn't something that happens with how annoyed dragon was, if dragon was kira or a follower. I take these emotions to just point to town, and am happy to clear the slot for now. the other slots I have no idea

Naw, Dragon's end of day was terrible. I think unlikely to be Kira, but very likely to be a follower.

Who do you think is likely to be Kira considering how yesterday played out?

If Cuddle is a follower, from most likely to least likely Kira:

Klick
HPE
Rat
Freedom
Wisp
Gimli

[Gimli]

I still think cuddle time is pretty townie and D1 end of day isn't something that happens with how annoyed dragon was, if dragon was kira or a follower. I take these emotions to just point to town, and am happy to clear the slot for now. the other slots I have no idea

Naw, Dragon's end of day was terrible. I think unlikely to be Kira, but very likely to be a follower.

I'm reading from dragon's emotions and especially his posts to me that he was legitimately annoyed I wasn't contributing much

btw how come theyre more likely follower than kira?

[Gimli]

I wish black was playing (but no shame in letting the game go if you dont feel it I guess)

[Aureal]

Elaborating on my reasoning:

I feel like Klick Kira case is pretty obvious from how Cuddle constantly townread Klick but this bit specifically bears note:

Gimli it wrecks my heart to push you again and potentially mislim you but it's true that if your flip doesn't end the game we can treat Klick as clear and have a much smaller PoE and also HPE is less suspect I guess.

Wanting to clear Klick by flipping Gimli doesn't make sense to me so it feels like just interjecting a thought that Dragon WANTS to happen in hopes that by saying so people will just nod and go along with it.

As far as HPE goes:

VOTE: HIGH PRINCESS SCUMRINYS

We've been opposite alignments for 4 games in a row, don't see a reason it would change now.

This could be signalling, even with as bad of an idea as I think it is in this game this reference to past games is a lot more likely to fly under the radar than something as overt as other possible Kira signalling that's been pointed out. (Interestingly, Black even notes in 277 that signalling is super risky!) There was some early heat on HPE and Cuddle joined briefly, then shifted to Hu Tao as soon as Rat voted her (and the early vote was pretty safe because of the grace period) so it could easily be an attempt to make HPE look vulnerable and thus not Kira.

Who are the obvious scum in the scenario where the game is "too easy"? I don't really see any "obvious" scum other than HPE who I don't think is Kira.

- Dragon

Again waving off HPE as scummy but not Kira.

From town to scum: Cuddle, Klick, Erinys, Gimli, Aureal, Tao, Dan, Rat, Drew.

Elaborate your reads on Erinys, Drew?

Seems like hoping someone who thinks HPE is towny will make a towncase for it and make it look better.

On Rat and Freedom, Cuddle doesn't ever really do much with Rat's slot other than prod Rat about the Klick scumread, implying Rat seems like a Gimli follower. There's basically nothing on the Drew/Freedom slot other than waving it off as not likely Kira. These are easy places for a Kira who's not being pushed to sit, so they're still viable as Cuddle's Kira, I give a nod to Rat as the more likely one since I feel like the hydra players are confident enough in their scumgame that they'd try to interact with their Kira and have a decent read there rather than just ignore the slot.

Wisp and Gimli are just... yeah, not likely at all to be Cuddle's Kira and I think it's pretty obvious why.

[Aureal]

I still think cuddle time is pretty townie and D1 end of day isn't something that happens with how annoyed dragon was, if dragon was kira or a follower. I take these emotions to just point to town, and am happy to clear the slot for now. the other slots I have no idea

Naw, Dragon's end of day was terrible. I think unlikely to be Kira, but very likely to be a follower.

I'm reading from dragon's emotions and especially his posts to me that he was legitimately annoyed I wasn't contributing much

btw how come theyre more likely follower than kira?

I'm... not going to answer that in full just yet. I will say that if Cuddle is Kira I think he was intentionally trying to come off as just a follower there, because lord did he ever. Obviously at this point now we know he wasn't a Hu Tao follower but that was the clear message I was getting from the way he was playing. So I think we might have foiled his plan to look like a follower of the wrong person by actually managing to flip the wrong person. This is how I perceive Dragon's handling of the end of day:

Dragon: ugh I'm going to sleep, Klick/HPE/Gimli/Aureal plz tell me what to do
Aureal/Klick/HPE: *vote Hu Tao*
Gimli: *barely exists due to migraines*
Dragon: OMG HOW DARE YOU!!!!!! I'M GONNA GET GIMLI!!!!!
Klick/HPE/Gimli/Aureal: what
Dragon: FINE GIMLI CAN BE TOWN! LET'S GET WILLOW! WAIT WE CAN'T, OK LET'S GET GIMLI!!!

[Freedom]

I think aureal and gimli are town.

[Freedom]

I see merit in klick's plan tbh but given nobody had cced Dan earlier, I think he's really assistant.

[CUDDLE TIME]

Okay time to explain my behavior around willow slot yesterday.

I locked T-Bone as town early on because I felt Detective energy from his slot. Citation:

Okay, as promised, here's my process:

I've been townreading Klick for a while now (perhaps for bad reasons, but with his posting I feel I'm more likely to be right for the wrong reasons than just wrong).

I've also concluded that T-Bone is town and that Drew is not Kira

regardless of his alignment. I've thought Hu Tao was scummy but her play makes sense more as scummy town than as Kira IMO (but not letting her off the hook completely). So that leaves a pool of Aureal/Gimli/RR/AD/HPE. This pool doesn't necessarily contain all scum but I do think it contains Kira.
[...]
- Dragon

[...]
This VC kinda sucks tbh. I would really like to build a wagon on someone so we can start to see how people react to real pressure.

In fact I'd probably be down to wagon almost anyone except Klick or Willow right now

(oh hi Willow! Good that you managed to get in the game!), so that I could gather hopefully alignment-indicative reactions to those wagons.

[...]

- Dragon

Also I specifically thought that Drew was softing assistant of T-Bone (though in looking back I am not really sure what made me feel that way, maybe just saying he thought that T-Bone was town early on without giving any reasoning, and I was already thinking T-Bone was the detective at that point). I was intentionally vague about that though since it was anti-town to say that, but I did say I didn't think he was Kira (which was true and I still think the slot is unlikely to be Kira).

When AcrionDan claimed, I kinda assumed that he was just the detective. So that made me "realize" that my assumption that T-Bone/Willow were the detective was "wrong". On looking back I should have probably looked at ActionDan's outgoing associations, but it was pretty close to deadline and I wanted to try and start an alt wagon and see and use people's reactions to get a better read on the game state and on people (that actually did somewhat work, more on that in a bit). At the time Hu Tao was the top wagon and Hu Tao wasn't Kira so it's actually confirmed that I wasn't trying to counterwagon scum (unless the people who think I am Klick's follower think that Hu Tao is Klick's other follower and I found her out IDK. I haven't checked her associations since they are irrelevant since she's town 90% of the time but you guys are welcome to).

This explanation is given because I know I look bad, but I also know that right now the alignment ratio is 3-5 (uness Hu Tao was a follower which I find unlikely) and basically every member of the town has to vote together for us to achieve a Kira lim (or we can have the detective use condemn on Kira or get Kira to bus a follower, I guess). So I do want people to be willing to work together with me.

Right now my solve is is Gimli Kira, and HPE/Klick/Rat/Aureal as followers (ordered most to least likely). This is in part based on the votes on Hu Tao, who was obv!not Kira based on how little resistance her wagon got (only from me, I think? And I was supposedly Klick's follower so I couldn't be her follower). And also Klick and HPE were both happy to compromise on Willow or Hu Tao but not on Gimli and it really feels weird. Aureal is right now casing me as a Klick follower for my bad push (and it was bad) on Willow, but she forgets how these people followed me onto it, and how oppirtunistic they were. I wasn't oppirtunistic, I was trying to shake up a gamestate that I felt was anti town.

Peace out.

VOTE: Gimli

Note: I'd be willing to go for HPE today so that we have a small chance to maybe hit Kira anyway and also less scum votes tomorrow (2/6 votes instead of 3/8), but currently I want Gimli. This setup is actually scumsided though, alignment ratio wise.

- Dragon

[CUDDLE TIME]

Dragon: ugh I'm going to sleep, Klick/HPE/Gimli/Aureal plz tell me what to do
Aureal/Klick/HPE: *vote Hu Tao*
Gimli: *barely exists due to migraines*
Dragon: OMG HOW DARE YOU!!!!!! I'M GONNA GET GIMLI!!!!!
Klick/HPE/Gimli/Aureal: what
Dragon: FINE GIMLI CAN BE TOWN! LET'S GET WILLOW! WAIT WE CAN'T, OK LET'S GET GIMLI!!!

I said I'd sheep the one who made sense

Voting Hu Tao made 0 sense

- Dragon

[HighPrincessErinys]

Note: I'd be willing to go for HPE today so that we have a small chance to maybe hit Kira anyway and also less scum votes tomorrow (2/6 votes instead of 3/8), but currently I want Gimli. This setup is actually scumsided though, alignment ratio wise.

chat does he know im town

[Klick]

I think ActionDan makes no sense as a Follower, because realistically what he has done if he's Follower is 1. move the vote onto someone else other than him, a not-Kira, and 2. drawn the Kira kill towards a Follower instead of the Detective. It doesn't match his alignment's needs if he's scum. It does a lot more for an Assistant.

[Little Will o' Wisp]

I think ActionDan makes no sense as a Follower, because realistically what he has done if he's Follower is 1. move the vote onto someone else other than him, a not-Kira, and 2. drawn the Kira kill towards a Follower instead of the Detective. It doesn't match his alignment's needs if he's scum. It does a lot more for an Assistant.

Dan not being a follower is a certainty. He was killed by the Death Note, so his visible name was actually real.

[Little Will o' Wisp]

My PoE is Gimli, Radical Rat and Freedom. I'm pretty sure Kira is among their number.

[CUDDLE TIME]

I would like to bring to everybody's attention that unless Hu Tao was a follower (something which I think is unlikely), today is basically Melo. If we mislim a task force memeber, and Kira guesses and kills the detective (which isn't THAT hard), then tomorrow we're going to be 3v3 with no way to kill Kira.

So we MUST hit scum today (because I am not banking on the detective surviving the night and correctly guessing Kira tomorrow), and preferably Kira (but if we hit a follower we do have another shot at hitting Kira tomorrow and a knowledge that either today's lim or Hu Tao was a follower since we weren't endgamed).

If this wasn't Melo I would probably be fine with going for Klick to prove he wasn't Kira and I am not his follower so people can untunnel me, but it is Melo and I think going Klick is too dangerous because he very well could be town (though I guess if he's follower it's a pretty good hit and might actually convince people that Gimli is Kira).

Bleh.

What I do know is that I have 90% certainty HPE is scum because it's literally openwolfing the same way it has been in its last wolfgame and I am getting flashbacks to how I've also been fooled in that game.

My problem is if Gimli is Kira with HPE/Klick and we flip HPE, Gimli probably shoots detective and then there would be a majority in favor of flipping Klick over HPE tomorrow and then Gimli would win so maybe flipping Klick is better, IDK. But that assumes he's scum which I am veey much not sure about.

Would people be fine with flipping Gimli today and Klick tomorrow?

- Dragon

[Klick]

My PoE is Gimli, Radical Rat and Freedom. I'm pretty sure Kira is among their number.

...hard agree? This is basically where I'm at

I don't

think

it's the Gimli mindfuck route and I think RR and Freedom make more sense but I think healthy skepticism is probably called for there at this point

[Gimli]

I can do klick today because I think there's a good chance the klick/HPE dynamics is one of kira/follower, with HPE transferring its unexplicated townlean on me over to klick and vice versa

it's possible that klick thought I was a follower (am not!)

yesterday's HPE going 'not moving to klick or gimli, let them cook' felt weird to me and I think this could be the explanation

I'll have more time to post properly during the gameday, let's take this slow

everyone except maybe HPE can easily be kira though afaict

[Klick]

I'd like a more solid opinion on if today should be treated like it's ELo

[Gimli]

also dragon I know you're eager but considering kira didn't kill the detective you should not talk about who you think it is

[Gimli]

I'd like a more solid opinion on if today should be treated like it's ELo

it should

if no followers are dead, and no follower/kira dies today, next gameday is parity for kira and followers

unless mechanics idk about

[Klick]

I'm going to explicitly claim that I'm sitting on a not-insignificant amount of Skill-related info at the moment

[Gimli]

oh right if the detective is still alive tomorrow they can use day skill and save the day

[Radical Rat]

Argh whatever

VOTE: Klick

This is why I kept quiet during most of the last day of yesterday. Dragon voting Klick at such a critical moment was the first serious challenge to my view of the game. I wasn't sure whether it was a gambit or not, so I wanted to wait and see if it stuck, without giving any indication of whether it was working if it was a gambit.

It did not stick, and indeed Dragon went right back to espousing Klick as a Townread, but by that point I had gotten distracted with EDF, so I didn't get to mention it before Hu Tao went over. Which... honestly, don't get that wagon. Should've been Gimli at that point, but what's done is done.

VOTE: Klick

Still top Kira for me, still potentially a Follower if I'm wrong, so it's gonna take a damn good case on someone else to get me to move.

[Klick]

I dont really understand your view of the game which makes it pretty hard to work with a theoretical town!Rat