ok.
anyway i think naeyrs is probably a better choice than no lim unless i can find something as compelling as that obsidian post.
but i must confess i'm still ambivalent about the option.
still, i'm inclined to bet on oblivion having the best understanding of the gamestate atm (you seem close too tbh but)
for example,
In post 1451, Oblivion wrote:
There was a point at which Ranger was going to live yesterday, after the claim. For it, only Thomith or Gypyx can be bussing, because the others came along to nail in the coffin Ranger.
this seems correct and maybe a better take on the ranger wagon than i perceived from you a recent post
idk. their roles sort of imply that their power is wasted if one or the other flips.
they aren't regular masons where the flip of one implies the existence of the other.
breadcrumb has best odds of being picked up if it's in an early post.
gypyx does have an odd post where she scumreads snow for noticing that she and thomith are inordinately trusting one another
and thomith's perspective on D2 seems off to me, with this oblivion vote being the most salient consequence of that
RN's not
In post 1474, Naerys wrote:
:roll:
If u think scum would blatantly refuse to vote their partner u are wrong
Scum!me would yeet ranger without hesitation
ugh. am honestly inclined to believe this
In post 1475, Naerys wrote:
I still stand by my refusal to vote ranger anyway. We were risking yeeting potential PR, so i would look at those, who were super confident in that lim first
In post 1448, Oblivion wrote:
Situational doesn't match. Lycan was clearly town from replacement and Peguin was disconnected enough to rejoin and simply believe the claim if he wanted. Town and Town. Ranger was very clearly trying to live.
I agree withbthe last statement.
I believe at least one person hard pushing Ranger was probably bussing, because I believe that slot was kind of doomed already.
i can't agree here but it's important context for interpreting where thomith is right now
this is a bit of preflipping but in a scum!snow world naerys always busses
especially given HOW she went about refusing to lim the claim, scum trying to let a partner go rarely does the whole "i have no faith in this town" schtick
the overall self righteousness is town indicative
sussing me is a plan that's gonna be tough to make work as scum and she probably wouldn't have tried it straight up
the self vote
i have seen it in the stars
etc..
this take seems like a correct interpretation of naeyrs tonally tbh. wonder if this is oblivion's first naeyrs game or not. feel more confident that it's lycanfires -- am i right?
In post 2404, Psyche wrote:
idk. their roles sort of imply that their power is wasted if one or the other flips.
they aren't regular masons where the flip of one implies the existence of the other.
breadcrumb has best odds of being picked up if it's in an early post.
My point being to assume Thomith/Gypyx are scum Thomith would have had to crumb on page2, when they may never go down that route of fake claiming.
oh ok
i think you and i are close to on the same page about everything this game
am just now noticing that you realized sheeping oblivion might be a good approach to D3 dozens of pages ago
i think naeyrs couldd be scum, but id be more inclined to bet on it being a combo of titus/gera/kay -- even though that's a pretty boring combo. if i could just pick someone to die today it might be gera. but i'm not still not sure. the weird thing about this game for me is that snow/gera are both playing in a way that's unrecognizeable to me given my previous experience with these slots, where they mostly lurked and/or posted useless gummy stuff. gera was scum in the previous game while snow was town. i'm still really unsure how to roll with that.
but feel like most responsible thing for me to do given how fresh my readthrough is and how close deadline is would be to default to naeyrs and accept that i'll look kind of suspicious tomorrow for being such a wishy-washy entry to the wagon if she flips town.
actually if i could pick someone to die today it would probably be titus. but honestly i can't sort titus in general. vigged her in a previous game when she was town. play is indistinguishable for me, and not in a way that signals she must be town this game.
actually yeah too many posts are townpinging me. i can see posts by gera and kay and snow that i find hard to imagine from scum -- though not necessarily that hard. either way, i'm not going to find a confident solve that excludes naeyrs today. would be silly to attempt counterwagon without such confidence. i'll try again tomorrow if I have to.
I do think gypyx's towncase on naeyrs has a lot to it and it sort of fits with why I'm inclined to think naeyrs is town. But it's not much more of a tonal/meta read -- not really rooted in the strength of her play or assessment of its consistency w/ town (or scum) win condition. So I can't value it enough to call for everyone to flip the board.
By comparison, I think oblivion being scum is super implausible at this point based on its ranger positioning -- it does not look like a bus to me.
some gaps id address if i had infinite time...
- why does thomith currently have a vote on oblivion?
- is the towncase for snow really so strong that i shouldn't take the counterwagon seriously?
eghhhh. i think part of me is interested in the idea of snow over naeyrs so i guess i can't ditch the thread yet