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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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not ruling it out but atm don't see snow redoubling so robustly at this moment as scum — however naeyrs flips
guess big countervail to this take would be if oblivion or another real alternative is scum and he feels like another nudge is necessary. maybe someone pairs me and snow based on that rationale if naeyrs flips town? meh idea overall — i'm pretty unlikely today despite idle talk
omg psyche focussssYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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last several hours of yesterday were pretty productive despite everything
if we don't hit scum today i'll take it personallyYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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snow's had a fun little strategy in mind with his self vote earlierYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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oblivion seemed to double down on ranger in a way that definitely wasn't forced. and really committed to this naeyrs push too. i suppose it's technically possible from scum but i'm inclined to disbelieve as much.
can you walk us through how you ended the day with a vote on that slot?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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think calling out the snow/davesaz dissoc yesterday is probably a good sign that thomith really is townYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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oblivion did give some reasons for this in its post and at least the factual parts seem verifiableIn post 2505, Gypyx wrote: Daveslot is also the only person to invoke such strong reactions from oblivion, i wonder whyYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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agree though that it's wrong to interpret 44 as potentially throwing dave under the bus; there's not enough pressure conveyed by the post to have that effectYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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I'd argue that oblivion also pushed Naeyrs reasonably strongly. Lines like "Naerys needs to be the elimination for today. Bottom line."You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Now, I did kind of find its basis for pushing Naeyrs kind of weak when I first looking at the wagon...I remember being fascinated by its strong hostility reaction after I critiqued this basis. But in retrospect, it just looks like a symptom of tunnel vision plus a chip in its shoulder about being ignored for some reason.
In post 2285, Psyche wrote:
imo this is close to consistent w my play atm (i guess i'm asking questions sometimes too) and i'm just busy town with thread email notifications turned onIn post 2273, Oblivion wrote: It notes they popped in only to defend themselves and are now scrambling to find alternative targets.
naeyrs has admitted to lurking because of other interests
so isn't this null since it could be honest from either version of naeyrs?
or do you see signs she's lying?
or do you think it doesn't actually matter?
(if so, why'd you bring it up?)In post 2293, Oblivion wrote:
Then it has no interest in answering your questions. Your posts already read like they are trying to setup onto voting it, and if you're never changing your mind, then it has no interest in wasting its breath with you.In post 2286, Psyche wrote: [am not at all closed to joining the naeyrs wagon. just think these questions will help assess (and document) your vote basis/confidence]
Either you're town and so wrong it will never convince you, so it's efforts are best spent elsewhere.
or you're scum and chainsawing Naerys, which would require some thought processing from it, but is solvable just from that.
In either case, answer your questions provides it with exactly zero value, and given your stance on it already it doesn't feel it owes you even a lick of effort in trying to show it is town. It frankly doesn't care.
but idk not seeing much sortable in this exchange. at least nothing that goes against baseline guess that slots that push early to get scum limmed and keep pushing until the lim succeeds are usually town.In post 2299, Psyche wrote:
well then what's the stance you think i'm resistant to changing? i haven't said i scumread you and i've specifically said i'm open to voting naeyrsIn post 2296, Oblivion wrote:
It isn't hostile, it's just correct. It sees no benefit to itself in answering the questions of someone who doesn't ever plan to change his mind, nor does it see a reason to pitch itself as town to such a person when they clearly already scumread it.In post 2295, Psyche wrote:
this is a pretty oddly hostile response to some pretty solid qs imoIn post 2293, Oblivion wrote:
Then it has no interest in answering your questions. Your posts already read like they are trying to setup onto voting it, and if you're never changing your mind, then it has no interest in wasting its breath with you.In post 2286, Psyche wrote: [am not at all closed to joining the naeyrs wagon. just think these questions will help assess (and document) your vote basis/confidence]
Either you're town and so wrong it will never convince you, so it's efforts are best spent elsewhere.
or you're scum and chainsawing Naerys, which would require some thought processing from it, but is solvable just from that.
In either case, answer your questions provides it with exactly zero value, and given your stance on it already it doesn't feel it owes you even a lick of effort in trying to show it is town. It frankly doesn't care.
Why would it waste its energy on that conversation... ever?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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massclaiming would be a good call i think. still feel reasonably committed to stance that oblivion's not the one for today.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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What's the way to distinguish a well-executed bus from someone having a scumread and pushing it over?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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I guess I can allow that a hard bus was not an impossible strategic call there.
But it wasn't forced either; it seemed like pressure really was turning away from Ranger after the claim until Oblivion redoubled.
The main question though is still -- what in obsidian's iso should lean us to think it was bussing instead of pushing a scumread?
Without a good answer, I feel like we should townlean the slot by default. And honestly I probably more than townlean atm.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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first instinct was to fos enchant over targeting lycanfire but i'll stay open-mindedYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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ehhhh. naw.In post 1303, Oblivion wrote: Ranger's claim is so many levels of BS.
Does no one except it remember when Ranger bragged about how surprised it woupd be about her claim and then claimed the least surprising most obvious bait claim in the world that didn't match that tone at all?
What is going to happen is that Ranger will live today if you let her, live tomorrow on promise of shooting someone but you will never get that shot. Either they will claim to be roleblocked or shoot a townie and then if you go "okay time to sort ranger" it is MELO and you won't have space to do it.
Now is the time to murder this suspicious player with a suspicious claim. Town does not need a N3 Vig or a N4 Jailkeeper, and more likely it is a scum fake claim.
We should not be running up other players to claim to feed the scum more info on our roles.
Murder Ranger with it, they will flip scum.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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think this is fine to commit to!In post 2575, Gypyx wrote: Not talking to Nurse anymoreYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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had some reasons to townread titus that ill review but ive always thought she was a more likely ranger busser than oblivionYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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sure. and make sure to think through who you'll have claim nextYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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but go now or you'll look scummyYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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also tell us the exact role name pleaseYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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is the argument for geratown mostly meta? would be cool if i had moreYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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it's actually really useful for weighing possibilities like gypyx/thomith being in a team with rangerYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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right, but this is exactly what the setup reasoning you're discounting clarifies. that the gypyx/thomith/ranger team is all the more unlikely.In post 2657, geraintm wrote:
From the claims just doesn't seem viable? Town has basically nothing to respond to a United scum team. Or am I misunderstanding?In post 2656, Psyche wrote: it's actually really useful for weighing possibilities like gypyx/thomith being in a team with rangerYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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and imo you're all talkIn post 2658, geraintm wrote:
Really feels like you are wasting timeIn post 2656, Psyche wrote: it's actually really useful for weighing possibilities like gypyx/thomith being in a team with ranger
did you do anything to prosecute that vote on me you placed yesterday?
at minimum it would have been nice to have more people around when deadline was getting closerYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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actually im misremembering your posting yesterday.
you were useless because you misread my "snippy" posts but you were also chatty about itYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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emphasizing deductions like these is especially important this game because there is a pretty good chance that RN survives to any prospective meloIn post 2660, Psyche wrote:
right, but this is exactly what the setup reasoning you're discounting clarifies. that the gypyx/thomith/ranger team is all the more unlikely.In post 2657, geraintm wrote:
From the claims just doesn't seem viable? Town has basically nothing to respond to a United scum team. Or am I misunderstanding?In post 2656, Psyche wrote: it's actually really useful for weighing possibilities like gypyx/thomith being in a team with rangerYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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what am i missing?In post 2665, Lycanfire wrote:
This take is awful?In post 2656, Psyche wrote: it's actually really useful for weighing possibilities like gypyx/thomith being in a team with ranger
how is it so awful?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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this is what i am talking aboutYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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rn why did you push for the massclaim if you weren’t going to use the info to calibrate your reads at allYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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there's one or two clear lims of least resistance today but i'm concerned that they aren't on the mark
if there were scum among the slots that are more productive this game, how would we find them? how would we avoid the bait?
this type of q is sort of essential to my ability to enjoy mafia but for now im at a loss for a reliable answer
i guess responsible thing to do first is the legwork to confirm that we really are in such an ambiguous scenario. caffeine is kicking in. might as well spend the boost on a game instead of the job i took it for...You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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it looks like you misread my 2656 as conveying a belief that gypyx/thomith have a chance of being scumYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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rn the biggest lesson of this massclaim should be that there's little to no chance of gypyx/thomith being scum
is that what were you seeking with this massclaim? to test your pet theory that they are lying about being pseudo-masons?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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i struggle to see how. it's typical from him even in this gameYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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could you elaborate on why 2689 was interesting if it lends to prediction of "same shit on a different page"You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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this doesn't seem to make much sense..? why don't scum just kill gypyx/thomith ahead of melo if they are such a threat?In post 2578, Lycanfire wrote: Odds of Enchant lolcatting because the scum PT is filled with posts such as "we need a mislim on gypyx or thomith OR we always take them to melo"? I can see this reveal or at least bothering the two of you in private to be an avenue to build suspicion.
Which would be a terrible use of the slot. Reeks of desperation and someone that would have only read the scum PT but not the game thread.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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still feel reasonably convinced that the solve is best narrowed to
geraintm
KayJayQueue
Enchant
am convinced by the towncase for all the others, maybe most controversially lycanfire and oblivion
and i'm probably still inclined to take kayjayqueue out of this pool, but i can't say i have strong reasons for it
what i want to look for atm are any details that could convince me that this poe is wrong
if not, i'll focus on presenting why it's probably rightYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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well, i'm time/effort-constrained.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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is this the kind of post that has people townreading gera?In post 1479, geraintm wrote: ok, a little catching up to do.
start here
this vote, combined with them jumping on late yesterday raises concerns. if there was a bus then this is where i think it was, following up with trying to direct day 3 so obviously.
post 1412 is almost like they have set up snow for a while to take the fall today. lycan has also been setting snow up.
(i kinda want to flip snow because it gives so much info about people)
Snow's entry is very defensive.
this is so weird, these 3 are locked in a weird death spiral with each other. strongly think there is at least 1 scum in there. just doesn't make sense otherwise, feels like someone has been caught and scum is lashing out in the group
why?In post 1432, Oblivion wrote: It will only kill Naerys today.
you do know day 1 i will just vote the biggest thread?In post 1434, Snow2697 wrote:
If not the hood, an option can be to look at Naerys-geraintm (both did not vote scum!Dave, but voted town!NAS) and also at Wisp-Naerys conflict dating back to D1 (Wisp looks more town due to his vote into Ranger on D2).
Penguin voted scum!Ranger, so some details on why he is scum might be helpful.
yesterday i had no strong view on who was scum or not, certainly i had nothing to indicate Ranger was scum, hence my not voting.
what momentum elsewhere? it was clear Ranger was going yesterday from early on, there was at least 1 scum on their wagon if not both.In post 1437, Thomith wrote:
If I was scum why would I swing the momentum back to execute Ranger when it seemed that momentum may have begun picking up elsewhere?
i think i am in favour of this, feels like some good claims will trap scum with nowhere else to go. ranger already got done with a bad claim so i dont think scum are good at coming up with good claims between themIn post 1443, Oblivion wrote: It is considering a Mass Claim at this point. We have had 2 nights of actions, it wonders if a third benefits us over forcing claims.
It would like to do this in a Popcorn styling.
your snap vote post 1 today certainly gave the mpression you wanted toIn post 1444, Thomith wrote:
I'm not stating I get to dictate the day. In fact I said I'm willing to go outside the hood because I may be tunnelled, I'm just voting my biggest scumread right now.In post 1442, Oblivion wrote: We will see. It is most amused you believe you get to dictate today.
Snow is off the table.
i think though VOTE: naerys. the way they jumped off Ranger straight after the claim and gave the impression they did not want to go in thehood. also things like thisIn post 269, Naerys wrote:
Not fond of the way Titus and gera switched to dave tbhIn post 265, Thomith wrote: Any further thoughts on this yet?
also kinda dont like Penguin´s position on Wisp, but also i dont like Wisp himself and the way he "suspects" me
On the other side i think dave could be town, he doesnt really feel different from his previous towny games. So i think looking into those, who think dave could be scum is warranted
i'd really like to start working toward a shared perspective on him but so far it looks we've been trading in truisms and/or missed messagesYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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personally i think there's very little substantive reasoning in gera's wallposts and that it might be overlearning to expect him to be similarly inactive across all his scum games
like this looks thoughtful if you're skimming it, but it's just a really wordy expression of a gutread, and quite mechanical and superficial in its analysisIn post 2228, geraintm wrote:
ok, ignoring the bit about my interaction with you that you did reply to (i brought it up because i needed to remind mysel what i thought about you previously)In post 2202, geraintm wrote:
Sorry I missed this.In post 2058, Psyche wrote: yeah i hate that you do that day 1 thing but i understand that as NAI for you
even beyond that though all of your votes have probably always been on town, and also not super well motivated
not knowing about ranger's neighbor posts is some kind of excuse, sure, but there are other scum in this game and your votes haven't help find them
but hmmm actually the naerys votecouldturn out to be prescient good luck out there
I'll reread later
(not looking at every posst)
2205- defeatist post
2201 - wants now to sheep Gypys.thom
2194 - snips at me for my read on lycan being poor and how i will look bad after they flip (though there would be 5 other people on the same wagon, wont they all look equally bad?)
2188 - zero content interaction with Kay and Naerys
219 - defeatist post
2175 - very deafeatist post
2170 - snippy
2168 - snippy
2156 - frustrated post
2148 - very defeatist post
so i stand by my view that your last series of posts are snippy. you just have the vibe of someone who has relaced in to a scum slot and cannot change the narrative. coupled with scum going down yesterday i wouldnt blame you.
i note in your 2194 you don't actually bother to dispute my read on you
is maybe harsh to put it this way, but none of gera's votes or posts have meaningfully advanced the game and all of his votes have been away from scum
he was really evasive around ranger too, avoiding meaningful takes on how scummy his and dave's iso were, and eventually flatly accepting the pr claim with little to no scrutiny
at best he explains his opposition to the wagon in terms of disagreement with the idea of limming inside the neighborhood, never providing a read on the slot based on its content in the thread
the final gypyx vote was both doomed and listless
think listless is the key summary for all of gera's iso, including his D3 push on me
this pattern stands in sharp contrast to readiness to jump on anyone D1 -- which, while well-known as his policy, should say something about his personality and approach to mafia that i don't see past that
imo it's totally consistent with an iso that's pretending to be sortingYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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his sole contribution to D1 was to volunteer that NAS has lurked as scum without any further reflection
but we are supposed to give him a pass for thatYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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In post 295, geraintm wrote: Yeah, but it isn't useful. It is the ekuivalent of my daughter asking me if I would prefer to be a flower or a tree.In post 306, geraintm wrote:
This is a goodnsummation of some of my thoughts. It just pads the game. It doesn't meaningfully helpIn post 298, JacksonVirgo wrote: I think the question was busywork. Firstly the question is just overlying blegh, I don’t agree with Thom but also Oblivion just dipped immediately after wanting a consistent back and forth.In post 961, geraintm wrote: It feels like a.lot of bad faith voting going on at the moment.
I just can't work out who
what is useful content for geraintm? will this thread ever see it?In post 1097, geraintm wrote: Sites back, yay!
I cannot deal with Ranger. Endless.posts of read lists give me nothing to work with.
Do they normally post like this??You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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i thinkk a big difference is that you're not a busybody in the same way
but we'll see if it's a big differenceYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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for future reference, this is gera's explanation for his D2 play.In post 1479, geraintm wrote: yesterday i had no strong view on who was scum or not, certainly i had nothing to indicate Ranger was scum, hence my not voting.
(except rather than not voting, he actually voted gypyx on D2, and recommitted to the gypyx wagon the next day soon after this post.)You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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could start by engaging w reasoning about why we all think it's not thomith/gypyxYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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don't think it needs the entire thread's energy, but obviously getting RN on the same page about this would be very valuable down the lineYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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i wonder how scum-RN plays though, how does he try to mimic his town game?
maybe the posting would look more agreeable. at least about thomith/gypyxYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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let's talk it over before we commit...i think there's stuff in titus's iso that might cue town.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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actually a lot of titus's posts cue town. wasn't this a more common view just yesterday?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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hmm guess not. where do i startYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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not trying to give enchant a free out, but if my trouble getting through 60 pages yesterday was within the norm then it'll be a while before enchant is even equipped to say anything useful. feel like it's wiser to sort based on titus's play or wait for more throughputYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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so i'll just start posting things that give me pause from titus's iso
for example...
In post 874, Titus wrote: I haven't changed my mind but I am wanting to give Ranger a chance if wrong. Dave Snow works for me.
am i crazy, or do posts like these not seem to suggest much self-consciousness on titus's part about her distance from ranger?In post 962, Titus wrote:
Because I have more faith in Naerys being scum. However if no traction in a bit, I will move. Shocked how static the game is.In post 960, Gypyx wrote: why are you voting together with Ranger then titusYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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the transition from the above string of posts to this recommitment to a ranger vote also seems rather organic
In post 1026, Titus wrote:
I don't like Random Nurse.In post 1023, Gypyx wrote: let's stay on ranger until it's clear it's not doableIn post 1096, Titus wrote: VOTE: Ranger
We can do Ranger now. Ranger's response to me voting Snow was horrible. Ranger sees Gypyx and Thomlith won't be divided so she's moving them up her reads list.
Ranger, the difference between you and Willow is my townreads are active and people are posting now. If you think my theory on Wisp also applies to you, who are the scum that don't give a damn.
Frankly, it's easy to post a series of names gradually moving people where you want them to be over time with no reasoning.
When you do post reasons, they are clearly bad.
Ranger Snow +1 inactive calling itYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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i agree that titus'stownplaydoesn't usually have much self-consciousnessYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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it honestly could be both of them but
VOTE: geraintmYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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what's not to like? it's like a game of telephone but if you had to choose someone in the line toshoot to deathsend home from the house party at 7pmYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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UNVOTE:In post 2741, Enchant wrote: Argueing with town leaders frustrating.
I guess i just jump for counter, hehe haha.
VOTE: Gera
unsettlingYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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um enchant could you just like read the thread and tell us who you think is scum pretty pleaseYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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