Chosen (a Cafftown actually won!)

populartajo · Post Post #500 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:25 pm

Im here. Sorry it took so long.
Give me a minute, maybe two to sort this mess.

Ether · Post Post #501 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:25 pm

Day 3, Votecount 2 wrote:1 Primate (Nuwen)

4 Unvote (Andycyca, charter, hohum, Primate)

With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch.

populartajo · Post Post #502 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:26 pm

Gracias Andy!!
So crywolf town, OGML town
Why the fuck havent we lynched hohum yet?
Still rereading.

populartajo · Post Post #503 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:29 pm

Primate is still town.
Nuwen, why the vote?

Ether · Post Post #504 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:30 pm

No reaction from Andycyca either way, so yeah, Tajo's back.

populartajo · Post Post #505 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:30 pm

WTF? How does Nuwen know that she isnt the chosen one?
Slip?

Primate · Post Post #506 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:30 pm

populartajo wrote:Primate is still town.
Nuwen, why the vote?

I don't think she's very good at mafia.

Primate · Post Post #507 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:31 pm

Oh, you meant what was her reasoning?

Oh nvm

populartajo · Post Post #508 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:31 pm

Nuwen wrote:I've been completely unwagoned straight into day 3. Either one of our scum pair is going to come up with a brilliant case and get me lynched in an hour, or Primate's infatuation with Hohum makes him the Chosen.

Mmm, this makes sense.

Primate · Post Post #509 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:31 pm

Chances are reasoning won't be great though.

Primate · Post Post #510 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:31 pm

populartajo wrote:
Nuwen wrote:I've been completely unwagoned straight into day 3. Either one of our scum pair is going to come up with a brilliant case and get me lynched in an hour, or Primate's infatuation with Hohum makes him the Chosen.
Mmm, this makes sense.

No it doesn't.

Primate · Post Post #511 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:32 pm

Scum suspicion mounts and is infrequently original unless there is a point and a point has been uncessary.

populartajo · Post Post #512 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:33 pm

Primate wrote:
populartajo wrote:
Nuwen wrote:I've been completely unwagoned straight into day 3. Either one of our scum pair is going to come up with a brilliant case and get me lynched in an hour, or Primate's infatuation with Hohum makes him the Chosen.
Mmm, this makes sense.
No it doesn't.

Why not?
Really leaning on charter-hohum scumpair.
Everybody can post thier top two?

charter · Post Post #513 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:33 pm

Is it better to lynch town today? There's three townies, so 33% chance of loss, whereas if we kill mafia, then it's a 50% chance of loss tomorrow...

charter · Post Post #514 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:34 pm

Wait, no, that's not going to work

Nuwen · Post Post #515 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:36 pm

populartajo wrote:WTF? How does Nuwen know that she isnt the chosen one?
Slip?

Hunch, just because any ground material for my lynch is absent. Ditto for Charter.

In a marathon style game, there isn't a ton of opportunity or material to backread and build cases on. In order to be playing optimally, one or both of our scum pair should have been pushing for the chosen's lynch at opportune times on days one and two.

populartajo wrote: Why the fuck havent we lynched hohum yet?

Primate wrote:I know, so we should be lynching the scum, who is Hohum.

Andycyca wrote:My best bet would be Primate and Hohum, but I haven't done reading Hohum yet...

Primate wrote:
Nuwen wrote:Still behind this pairing? Why Hohum over Charter today. Yesterday you were pegging Charter until your vote switched to PF.
I haven't really through charter was scum since I unvoted him. I like his attitude better.

With the cherry on top,

populartajo wrote:
Primate wrote:
Then who do you think is scum?

I still dont know. I think you and hohum are town.[/quote]

Distancing from any wagon in Hohum's direction + casual town confirmation for his partner. I realize that this is a two-directional analysis, but I really don't have the time to properly backread and splice every post.

Primate · Post Post #516 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:37 pm

populartajo wrote:
Primate wrote:
populartajo wrote:
Nuwen wrote:I've been completely unwagoned straight into day 3. Either one of our scum pair is going to come up with a brilliant case and get me lynched in an hour, or Primate's infatuation with Hohum makes him the Chosen.
Mmm, this makes sense.
No it doesn't.
Why not?
Really leaning on charter-hohum scumpair.
Everybody can post thier top two?

Scum will not pursue chosen because the chosen being revealed is the situation in which the scum are utterly fucked so they will be coy and just generally just avoid the subject in order to win through decent playing irrespective of chosen, especially at this point in the game. Nuwen has been pretty consistently regarded as town, so scum would have to have a good reason to starta case against her, but no reason has appeared, so there's no real reason to persue it when other targets are avaliable.

Nuwen · Post Post #517 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:38 pm

charter wrote:Is it better to lynch town today? There's three townies, so 33% chance of loss, whereas if we kill mafia, then it's a 50% chance of loss tomorrow...

Don't bother with percentages. Here is what needs to happen for town to win:

1. We lynch scum or a vanilla townie today
2. We lynch scum or a vanilla townie tomorrow

Basically, town wins as long as we don't lynch the guy the prominent scum pair is telling us to lynch.

Primate · Post Post #518 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:40 pm

Nuwen wrote:
charter wrote:Is it better to lynch town today? There's three townies, so 33% chance of loss, whereas if we kill mafia, then it's a 50% chance of loss tomorrow...
Don't bother with percentages. Here is what needs to happen for town to win:

1. We lynch scum or a vanilla townie today
2. We lynch scum or a vanilla townie tomorrow

Basically, town wins as long as we don't lynch the guy the prominent scum pair is telling us to lynch.

So the fact that 3 people in the game think I am scum means I am a bad lynch because lots of people are calling for my lynch?

Right?

I don't think that's the case and I doubt you do either.

Ether · Post Post #519 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:44 pm

forbiddanlight replaces hohum. Deadline's in like seven minutes.

forbiddanlight · Post Post #520 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:45 pm

So, I'm apparently in this game. Cool. I really don't think I can catch up in time :s.

forbiddanlight · Post Post #521 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:46 pm

Oh, anyone care to give me super secret info that could be important?

populartajo · Post Post #522 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:46 pm

Ok, Nuwen just became obv town.
Still going with hohum and charter, since I really cant see Primate as scum. Charter lurks as scum. Please claim.

Primate · Post Post #523 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:48 pm

forbiddanlight wrote:Oh, anyone care to give me super secret info that could be important?

You're scum.

populartajo · Post Post #524 (ISO) » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:49 pm

Nuwen wrote:
populartajo wrote:WTF? How does Nuwen know that she isnt the chosen one?
Slip?
Hunch, just because any ground material for my lynch is absent. Ditto for Charter.

In a marathon style game, there isn't a ton of opportunity or material to backread and build cases on. In order to be playing optimally, one or both of our scum pair should have been pushing for the chosen's lynch at opportune times on days one and two.

populartajo wrote: Why the fuck havent we lynched hohum yet?

Primate wrote:I know, so we should be lynching the scum, who is Hohum.

Andycyca wrote:My best bet would be Primate and Hohum, but I haven't done reading Hohum yet...

Primate wrote:
Nuwen wrote:Still behind this pairing? Why Hohum over Charter today. Yesterday you were pegging Charter until your vote switched to PF.
I haven't really through charter was scum since I unvoted him. I like his attitude better.

With the cherry on top,

populartajo wrote:
Primate wrote:
Then who do you think is scum?
I still dont know. I think you and hohum are town.

Distancing from any wagon in Hohum's direction + casual town confirmation for his partner. I realize that this is a two-directional analysis, but I really don't have the time to properly backread and splice every post.[/quote]
Ill tell you a secret: Im town and prob not the chosen one.