Open 209: The Invasion of Liten (Game Over)

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Vote: Slaxx

crypto, please join me in my glorious crusade against Slaxx.

1. Do you prefer town or scum?
2. Is lurking a scum tell?
3. Do you prefer town hunting or scum hunting?
4. How active do you normally consider yourself, in-game?
5. Policy lynches—good or bad?
6. Lynch All Liars—good or bad?
7. Is it scummy to vote without immediately giving the reason?
8. Is it bad to out your town reads?

1. Scum
2. Yes, but not a particularly strong one.
3. Scum hunting.
4. I should be pretty active.
5&6 You should play to win the game you're playing, not future games, so bad.
7. No.
8. No.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I like to start the day with a bandwagon. It is good for your cholesterol.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

We're just 2 hours into the game, SFG. Way too early for lurkerhunting.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Haylen's at L-2

Unvote

Strike that, Haylen is at L-3

I don't want some

Sniper

coming in and

Steam Powering

the Hammer down.

I can't tell what you are trying to do with the bolded. Be funny? Because it just kind of looks to me like you are throwing flak at random players for no reason. Why these two specifically?

This is such an obviously scummy post that normally I would assume it was the result of a brainfart, but you confessed to being terrible as scum and this is pretty much what I'd expect from terrible scum, so I'll

Unvote, vote: Nicodemus

.

@ SPS Why is our wagon on Slaxx Glorious?

Because the Pope has seen fit to bless it.

That said, I would like to hear from other players what their meta is. I've played with Nikanor in IRC before, but the rest of you are unfamiliar to me. If you don't feel like describing in words, please link me to two games, one scum and one town, that you think I should read.

I like to bandwagon and I make gut reads. It's been a while since I last played, but those two statements should still be accurate.

Nico stretched that statement pretty far in an attempt to make you look scummy, and I don't like it. If Nico had voted for you in that post he would be soooo dead right now.

If he had been successful in making Pulindar look suspicious, it would've been better for him to not be tied too closely to the bandwagon. Frankly, at this stage of game, I would think that moving his vote to Pulindar would have been the more natural move.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I'll deconstruct it for you. Pulindar makes an obviously joking comment. Now it might seem off to you, but there's no denying his intention. You accuse him of throwing flak at random players using weasel words ("just kind of looks to me like") and then you ask a question which you know can have no sensible answer (neither sniper nor I had posted yet.) It's the classic scum tactic of throwing an accusation out there and hoping it sticks while at the same time keeping your distance.

Not voting for him or FoSing him is in fact part of what makes it scummy. If, as you say, his comments seemed off to you, doesn't that deserve a vote at this point of the game? Your vote is still on Slaxx, who, as far as I can tell, hasn't done anything wrong yet. Why wouldn't you change it?

Also, his justification for voting me specifically seems off too: "If anyone but you had said this, I'd just think they were stupid, but since it's you specifically I've convinced myself you are scum."

You confessed to being terrible as scum in your second post. That comment(the obviously scummy one) was the kind of move I would expect terrible scum and the temporarily stupid (regardless of alignment) to make. Thus you are more likely to be scum.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

SPS, you really should toggle online status to hidden. You look really scummy in General Discussion right now when you only have five post in this thread.

Oh no! Just 5 posts in 2 days. I have nothing to hide.

Max, I say we lynch Nicodemus first and then forget about the list all together. I definitely see no reason to lynch SFG and I have no absolutely no read on crypto. (Also, I'm double town, which is twice as much as anyone else, so I definitely shouldn't be lynched.)

Steam-Powered Shovel
dislike posts 1 and 2

strike that you answered it in the next post

Could you clarify the italicized portion? I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Nico's scumminess is the only noteworthy event that has transpired as far as I'm concerned.

I would like you to try and make a post about a player other than Nico soonish. You seem to have a bit of an obsession with his scumminess.

Nico's scumminess is the only noteworthy event that has transpired as far as I'm concerned. I will comment on other stuff as they happen.

Hey! I've been posting content recently!

You must be working with a loose definition of content then.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Steam-Powered Shovel
dislike posts 1 and 2

strike that you answered it in the next post

Could you clarify the italicized portion? I'm not sure what you're trying to say.

I would like you to try and make a post about a player other than Nico soonish. You seem to have a bit of an obsession with his scumminess.

Nico's scumminess is the only noteworthy event that has transpired as far as I'm concerned. I will comment on other stuff as they happen.

Hey! I've been posting content recently!

You must be working with a loose definition of content then.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I definitely see no reason to lynch SFG and I have no absolutely no read on crypto.

That's because you want to leave the door open for OMGUS if possible. It's also because I'm Batman.

Yeah, because I'll magically get a good read on you when it's useful for me to after not being able to read you at all previously. That won't be suspicious.

In fact, I'm quite prepared to state that I do not expect to get a good gut read on you anytime soon. Also, you are not Batman.

Nico's scumminess is the only noteworthy event that has transpired as far as I'm concerned.

My frown muscles are flexing so hard in disagreement that my veins are popping and fountaining blood all over my keyboard.

Feel free to point out specific events that you would count as noteworthy.

Steam Powered Shovel

Very opportunistic on the Nic wagon, now trying to defend what is a

pretty lost case

. Suffering from tunnel vision so early by saying that Nic is the only scummy person so far. This makes me feel like you're just trying to focus on one person, which is

what scum does when they want to push mislynches

. Possibly scum.

Doesn't the italicised portion contradict the bolded part? Nicodemus is not a viable lynch candidate at this time, so pushing his lynch would hardly constitute a productive use of my time if I didn't care about catching scum.

Pulindar, OMGUS is pretty common among newbies. I'm not seeing anything suspicious in Sniper's posts so far.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

@All

, what do you think of Sniper's refusal to out his meta?

I'm not sure Sniper's actually refusing to out his meta or whether he even has any meta to out. He seems to be confused more than anything else.

In principle, refusing to out your meta is definitely a scum tell, although not a particularly strong one.

Is it a good route to take among experienced players?
Can you deny that it is OMGUS in any way shape or form?
I personally feel that the answer to both these questions is no.

Oh definitely. But I would also answer no to the question "Do his actions make it more likely that he's scum?".

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

It would probably help if you voted for someone.

That goes for all of you, actually. Voting is the most pro-town thing you can do! (Unless it's Lynch-or-Lose or something like that.)

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Now, my D1 play being weak as I've already stated, because apparently the type of scumhunting I do (taking critical notes of all players and analyzing them individually) looks scummy to everyone else, I've placed Rule 2 as a priority until such a time as my scumhunting has an outlet to pick up.

If your overriding concern is not get lynched, how are we to determine your alignment? As townie, I always try to play as naturally as I can, guilelessly.

Deciding not to vote for Max because of how it looks, I would definitely have considered suspicious if not for this explanation and the fact that it is consistent with how you've played in the past (I read your day 3 posts in that newbie). And I'm not quite sure what to think of it now.

I have played Mafia before, but different so al you need to know is that I have played before.

If you could link us to a previous game you've played, we'll be in a better position to judge your actions in this game.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Do you pronounce that pen-grah or peng-rah?

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Nicomedus said he'd have Limited Access, so he's not lurking currently.

Max, could you vote for someone? It would be much appreciated.

If your overriding concern is not get lynched, how are we to determine your alignment? As townie, I always try to play as naturally as I can, guilelessly.

I never said that it was overriding. I don't want to be lynched, no, but I want to start prioritizing 1 as soon as I have something more than a few straws here and there to build a case from. Right now, the one time I went out collecting straws and seeing what I could do, like three people jumped on me for "flinging mud."
Certainly I don't want to be lynched before the game gets into what I call the "middle game," which is when my scumhunting starts to become much more powerful than it does in the "early game."

I stated that in one of my first posts on this thread.

I probably should've thrown in a temporal quantifier there, as I didn't mean to imply it was an overriding concern all of the time, just part of the time (ie. during the early game).

Scumhunting during the early game certainly is no easy task, but that's true for everyone. I don't think one should focus more on saving your skin because of that. That's only going to make it harder for people to scumhunt.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Re-reading that post certainly made it a lot clearer where you're coming from.

It's quite critical of people and that does stand out the most, but it's also pretty exhaustive and generally correct. There's a sort of first impression of "flinging mud", but really it's a good post: it tells us what you think, points out stuff that may be relevant and asks follow-up questions.

Regarding your list of reads: it seems consistent with your large scumhunting post to the point of almost being redundant. I do disagree with most of it though.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Sniper, I'm a townie too, although I don't have a case of gas. Why don't you tell us what you think of everyone?

What parts do you disagree with, and why?

I agree with you on Max, Nikanor, Slaxx, and horrordude and disagree with all the others.

Sanhora didn't strike me as scummy so far (although she definitely has to post more now that the weekend is over or that will change quickly).
Sniper hasn't done anything noteworthy yet. (You did put him lowest on the list of scumminess, so that's ok.)
Haylen's active lurking puts her squarely on my list of scumminess.
Nicodemus' case I need not elaborate on.
Alduskkel's posts have given off a pro-town vibe.
crypto I would put as neutral.
Pulindar had a good start, but has faltered somewhat lately, putting him in neutral.

I also firmly believe that I'm pro-town, but obviously I can not expect you to trust me on that one. And being suspicious of me is pretty much par for the course, especially if you've never played with me before.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

FoS: Max

, refusing to vote on day 1 is anti-town.

Your case for crypto & SFG as a scum pairing is exceedingly weak. ISO 49, 47 and 41 are barely significant and Post 90, although I do admit it seems somewhat off, can be interpreted in a multitude of ways (e.g. as buddying up).

Re IIoA: as I've stated before, I feel not much has happened yet, so there hasn't been that much for me to analyse.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

It happens to be the case that I wouldn't really mind it if Nicodemus were to be lynched right now, but I'd still be voting for him if I did mind.

Being liberal with your voting has many advantages, for example:
1. It helps the game get started.
2. It puts pressure on people, thereby eliciting useful reactions.
3. If everyone votes, the vote count becomes a useful summary of suspicions.
4. Bandwagonning is fun.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

You missed this, SFG:

(all are after my initial post for any before refer to my iso where I highlight my reasons)

In his iso he refers to posts 90, 100, and 101 as being responsible for his initial suspicions.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

No, that was what IGMEOSFG stood for. Her second most recent post makes me feel much better, unless she's a super-awesome BSer.

This is pretty far from being a FoS.

But yeah, this one post is apparently why he decided you two were a scum pair.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

(peels off lurker suit)

Vote: SFG.

Steam-Powered Shovel, who are your top three suspects?

Nicodemus, Haylen and Max.

Any specific reason you're voting for SFG?

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

To All

:

Q1

: Who do you believe is the partner of the player you are voting for?

Q2

: If the player you are voting is town would you consider their possible partner is clear?

This is a question just to gauge a few responses.

My suspicion of Nicodemus is completely independent of any considerations of partnerships.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I'm not sure how significant that screenshot. I show up on that list too, but I was just re-reading Face-to-Face mafia. But we'll see what he has to say for himself.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Voting for horrordude for accusing slaxx of naming his scumpartner seemed really off compared to how defensive she got over crypto's RVS case against her.

She never voted for horrordude. "Stop making things up." does sound unduly harsh though, so I'll give you that.

What do you have to say about post 305?

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I don't particularly like how easily this Sniperwagon came about. But I feel that if he's scum, his partner would be quite willing to vote for him, so that doesn't tell us anything about his alignment.

Yeah, I'm not going to fight against this lynch. It's going to happen eventually and he's essentially said nothing so far.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

@slaxx - Yes, it is a sure statement. He is town. Seriously.

Is this a gut read?

SPS and Ardunkel, do you like SFG's move on removing the vote from the wagon?

SFG did post after the fifth vote had been placed without mentioning it, even though I felt it was pretty clear what direction we were heading in, so I'm not sure how genuine her move was.

The move itself is fine and is entirely consistent with her stated opinion on Sniper.

Will post some more later. Need to go.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

SFG did post after the fifth vote had been placed without mentioning it, even though I felt it was pretty clear what direction we were heading in, so I'm not sure how genuine her move was.

Unlike most people, I do not keep vote counts in my head, especially not when I'm passing through between dinner and karate. Then Slaxx specifically noted that Sniper was at L-1 and I freaked out.

I can believe you missed it if you didn't have enough time to properly read the thread. I don't see what it has to do with keeping vote counts in your head though: nicodemus' vote on Sniper was at that time the only vote placed since the last vote count.

Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:
Furry wrote:
@slaxx - Yes, it is a sure statement. He is town. Seriously.

Is this a gut read?


No, im a three shot day cop. He came up town. Max and Crypto came up scum. That means im just a VT now. Lets lynch one of them, will tell you which one of them later.

Just wanted to confirm. As I am not getting any town vibes from Sniper's posts personally.

Seeing one of my scum reads (Max) going after one of my town reads (Alduskkel) warms the cockles of my second heart.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Part of the reason that I don't want Sniper lynched is because in my experience, scum never call themselves a townie. Saying that, 'Hey, I'm a townie!' is a fairly reliable town-tell in my books. The reason for that is that scum don't like lying. Lying gets scum caught, so they get into the mindset of truthfulness. Once they're in that mindset, they become subconsciously unwilling to call themselves a townie unprompted, because that would be a lie. Do you follow?

You could just as easily argue that scum feel the need to assert they're town more than actual townies do. Calling oneself a townie is not, in my experience, a town tell.

Also, if I'm scum, I lie quite a bit (e.g. I could see this as distancing; I had a town read on that guy; I did check the game, but hadn't noticed the vote). Especially since a carefully thought-out lie can be more credible than the truth.

Haylen, why don't you hop on over to the Nicowagon? It would be appreciated.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Steam, what do you think of Max?

He's currently my number two suspect. I've had a scum read on him for a while now and that Alduskkel vote that came out nowhere certainly sent alarm bells ringing.

Haylen, why don't you hop on over to the Nicowagon? It would be appreciated.

I dont do what people tell me to in mafia.

Okay. I will note that I merely asked you to. Also, do not switch to Nicodemus.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

If we talked less, it would be even harder to figure out who the scum are. What would you propose? Lynching randomly and hoping we win?

If I was a scummy guy...you would never know. You all lucky I'm town.

That's true, but only because you're not talking enough. For example, could you tell us what you think of Nicodemus?

Sniper: Pretty much confirmed town by the mod

'fraid not. Self voting goes against your wincon no matter what (well, unless you're a Jester).

Nitpick: if there are two townies and one member of each mafia left (so 2-1-1), then the most suspicious-looking townie should try and get himself lynched.

I'm still happy with my Nicodemus vote.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Let's put a VC near the top of this page.

The Mod Steals Someone Else's Vote Count

(5) Nicodemus: Nikanor, Steam-Powered Shovel, Slaxx, Sniper, Haylen

(2) Sniper: Pulindar, Alduskkel
(1) SFG: Crypto
(1) Alduskkel: Max
(2) Max: Furry, LordChronos

Not Voting: SFG, Nicodemus

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline: March 11th, 2010 at 8:00 p.m. CST

Saying I have a hard time believing that scum would be so obvious =/= thinking Sniper is town.

Wrong. There are no neutral parties in this game. If you have a hard time thinking someone is scum, it means you think they are town. There is no gray area.

Come on, Nikanor, if you consider the context (ie. Sniper's actions), it's pretty clear what he means. How could he even reasonably conclude that Sniper is town?

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I know im not really taking a strong stance here but there isnt one to be taken as far as I am concerned. I dont want him lynched if that is what you are looking for, but he isnt a town read.

It would just be weird if you didn't have any null reads at this point in the game.

513's smell is more reminiscent of goats, in my opinion. (The goat represents consistency (as opposed to the cow, the cow represents sharing).)

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

These are some of the WORST possible things that scum can know the answers to. It lets them know who they can pull down with them or who they just barely need to change interactions with to frame if they get lynched. It lets scum know what specific interactions people are looking for. So it not only lets scum know what they need to do in order to ensure mislynches, but also it lets them know what they need to do to NOT get tied to their partner.

I'd disagree, if people believe they have found scum they believe they have found their partners. If they do not then they cannot believe they've found scum. They would believe they've found an SK, and as there is no SK then they must be bandwagoning for no evident reason.

This is a ridiculous position. There are plenty of ways to find scum which work just as well for mafioso as for SKs. It's perfectly possible for a mafioso to not give a significant hint as to who his partner is despite screwing up enough to get lynched.

Do I really need to provide examples?

At the point I voted Sniper I hadn't ISO'd Max yet. If you actually read the rest of the post you quoted, I believe I did give reasons for voting Max.

Scummy, you should never vote for players until you have read the whole game.

Lies. He's essentially just giving us extra information by voting at that point. The risk of premature lynchings is easily averted by a quick glance at a VC, so there's no real downside. It's only scummy if it can reasonably lead to a mislynch.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

This is a ridiculous position. There are plenty of ways to find scum which work just as well for mafioso as for SKs. It's perfectly possible for a mafioso to not give a significant hint as to who his partner is despite screwing up enough to get lynched.

Yes you are right, the night kills. As there have been no nightkills thus far.
As for providing examples, no need. I believe that I have read enough games to see how really, to find scum you need to have ideas of who the partners are. Even if you aren't right if you see evidence in game for you to suspect they are distancing

No, I don't mean the night kills, although those can indeed occasionally be a fruitful source of information. I'm talking about gut reads, looking for misrepresentations, lies, anti-town play, extra knowledge, that sort of thing. Looking for mafia-mafia connections is just part of the scumhunting procedure. If you really think that's the only way to find scum, say so and I'll give you some clearcut examples of scum caught without looking at that type of connections.

Lies. He's essentially just giving us extra information by voting at that point. The risk of premature lynchings is easily averted by a quick glance at a VC, so there's no real downside. It's only scummy if it can reasonably lead to a mislynch.

He's misleading the town. He's voting misinformed. He's using partial information therefore any information the town could gain is apparently negated by using a lame excuse for not having voted.

Say I began to be pressured for a vote, it's a cop out to say, "Oh I hadn't finished reading". He's intentionally making himself not accountable for his own vote.

I suppose you could go "hi, re-reading, halfway through, vote: butterface", see what kind of response you get and then if the response is negative, go "finished my re-read, milkface looks scummier, vote: milkface". That is a good point.

However, in this case, there was no backlash and he changed his vote anyway, so I don't think he did anything wrong as such. What did he stand to gain from first voting Sniper and then switching to Max? Reading the posts between his two votes, I can not conclude otherwise than that he really did change his mind.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

If you want to emphasize your vote, you can just confirm it.

Confirm Vote: Nicodemus

is less confusing.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I'll hammer Sniper if he gets to L-1 because we really need a lynch today and Sniper is my #2 suspect, but I'd still rather lynch Nico.

Have you read the deadline rules? Did you never wonder why a single player got bolded every VC even if there was a tie? That's the player that got there first and that's the player that will get lynched at deadline.

Haylen, were there that many nominations? I don't remember it as being that bad.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Haylen, were there that many nominations? I don't remember it as being that bad.

Yes, there were loads. Remember, we have to read all of the games, and 4 or 5 when it comes to the body of work nominations.

Body of work nominations, I see. That does explain the differences between our two experiences. (I was a Scummies judge a couple of years ago.)

At any rate, I expect that every single player here will have improved performance on Day 2, with the possible exceptions of crypto who may be disappearing entirely and Sniper, who gives no inclination of being interested in anything other than fucking with the rest of us and being annoying.

Also: people that get killed overnight. They rarely improve their play.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

The bad thing about plurality: people get apathetic. I'm probably going to put in minimal effort now because I don't have to convince people to vote Nico to get him lynched.

I believe that has just been proven wrong.

I prefer a Sniper lynch over a Nico lynch because Sniper has 1) been opportunistic and vote-happy, while Nico has not; 2) Sniper is actively anti-town, while Nico is just active lurking; 3) The only really scummy thing I have seen out of Nico was his attempt to connect Slaxx to Sanhora with fail reasoning, while Sniper has his points of opportunistic voting, which in my mind is a stronger scum-tell than what Nico has done, especially since he (Nico) says he is losing interest in the game.

So, essentially, you're just rewarding Nico for lurking?

Man, this game looked so promising just a few pages ago, but now we're lynching Sniper over Nicodemus. So sad.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Yeah, but Nicodemus isn't voting at this point and I think I know who he'll vote for.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Nika asked me if I would lynch Nico if deadline came up. on the evening of March 10th, EST, I would be willing to lynch Nico. He is not my top choice, but lynching someone on day 1 is something that I feel is needed.

Read the deadline rules. There's no need for such things.

Haylen, Nikanor is not a lurker. I don't know what you're on about.

Dragonfly, if you vote for Nicodemus straight away before Nicodemus can, that would be good. (If, having read the thread, you find Sniper a better lynch, you can switch your vote then.)

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I assume she misread Haylen's post.

SFG, you have nothing to worry about. You've been a solid contributor and you're in no danger of getting lynched. Especially if you help us lynch Nicodemus.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Waiting on Dragonfly's analysis and vote.

I have my vote cocked towards Nico if everyone else in the town is ready.

Yay!

Another Side Note: Al's activity has feigned the last few 5 days or so.

I think Max' lack of activity is more relevant, seeing as he doesn't have his vote on either of the two serious candidates.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

You don't have a choice in the matter, Max. Unless something crazy happens, one of the two is getting lynched. Your vote is not doing anything.

If you have any preference whatsoever, you should vote for one of the two.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

So it's basically a deadline, opportunistic vote.

Nice distancing.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Well, it's not a scummy vote. It's clear we are going to lynch Nico or Sniper so any other vote would be wasted. He disagrees with the Nicowagon, so process of elimination leaves Sniper. Furthermore, the Snipervote is wholly consistent with his previous actions. He only unvoted earlier because of some bizarre notion that Sniper was mod-confirmed.

You never really analyzed his vote, you just took a cheap shot at him.

So it's basically a deadline, opportunistic vote.

Nice distancing.

Uhh...i've been voting for Nicodemus for a while now. If you check, my votes have always reflected my opinions. You're an experienced player, you wouldnt have made that as a mistake, obvious misrep noted.

I don't see how you voting for him is relevant. You can be bussing your partner and still be using distancing tactics.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Vote: Max

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

SPS, why are you voting?

Gut. Also, his "case" on Alduskkel.

Haylen, really?

I think this bout of NK analysis is a little misguided. I don't see anyone with a strong motive to kill either dragonfly or LordChronos, so either we're missing something or the scum are trying to avoid giving us information.

SPS is not much better, FoS's Max in ISO 15, but in 17 he is teaming with Max a little, in 19 Max is listed as the least of his scum suspects, 32 is a bit of a break to the pattern, 41 he is wheedling with Max to wagon someone, aaaand finally they both ended up being on the same wagon.

I didn't mean to imply an ordering in 19; Haylen and Max were pretty much tied at that point.

If Max and SPS are a scumpair, then Nikanor is scum with either Haylen or Sniper.

This is true. (P -> Q is always true if P is false.)

P.S. I wouldn't have killed dragonfly. It's mean.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

SPS is not much better, FoS's Max in ISO 15, but in 17 he is teaming with Max a little, in 19 Max is listed as the least of his scum suspects, 32 is a bit of a break to the pattern, 41 he is wheedling with Max to wagon someone, aaaand finally they both ended up being on the same wagon.

I didn't mean to imply an ordering in 19; Haylen and Max were pretty much tied at that point.

If that's all you have to say against the entire body of evidence that I've just presented, I'm really disappointed in you.

Wait, what? I'm not seeing a body of evidence here. I don't see anything scummy among the things you mentioned, but I'll delve deeper if you want.

I FoS Max in 15. That's definitely true.

In 17 I point out something you missed and point you to the appropriate places mostly because Max was consistently refusing to be helpful in that regard. Case in point: He won't link to the newbie Sniper's being replaced in.

19 I already mentioned. I'm not sure what else you'd expect here. Clearly Nicodemus was my top suspect and I had already made it clear I was suspicious of Max.

32: I have no clue what you could find scummy about this post.

In 41 I am trying to get him to vote. Again, I'm not seeing the problem.

SPS did not kill them because of anti that and I will admit that SPS is sort of acting weird with me. It's what I like to describe as back-seat scum-hunting. He makes many cases against me and even when there was a bandwagon on me he remained on his Nicodemus bandwagon. He only today began genuinely pushing for my lynch.

Maybe I just found Nicodemus scummier? Have you considered that?

IIoA is what I accused him of yesterday and it's still the same, the only bits I've seen him thrive on are the anti-me-not-voting posts, which is general theory and not analysis. Also, accusing me of being scum based on a case on Alduskkel is ridiculous, have you read him in Iso?

I most definitely have. In fact, that's why I think he's town.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Also, I just looked up the Sniper-replacement deal. That was on the 28th of February. So not very relevant.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

@SPS, I provided several instances of you doing a weird distance/buddy dance with Max. I would like you to explain them because they really are quite curious when taken altogether. Incidentally, as you would notice if you'd actually read my post, the reason you can't figure out what was scummy about your 32 is because I was saying that 32 was the only unscummy interaction between the two of you.

Thus far your answer to 17 is the only one i find remotely satisfactory, and the rest is "yeah, well it was a weird distance/buddy dance. So there."

I'm not sure what you find weird about what you posted. I've been suspicious of him since pretty early on, but never voted for him because I found Nicodemus scummier. If that type of behaviour had continued a few days, you'd have a case, but it hasn't. He became my top 2 suspect yesterday and went to #1 when Nico died. You can't accuse me of calling him scummy but not really going after him: I'm going after him today.

If I haven't addressed the point you're trying to make, you're going to have more be more explicit.

Also the deal about linking that game was more so I could look up Sniper's meta, and maybe even a reveal if I was lucky.

He didn't confirm, so he never posted in that game.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Alduskkel probably needs a prod too. He hasn't posted yet Today.

Alduskkel is not yet up for a prod. He posted frequently enough on Day 1, and it hasn't been long enough to prod him yet.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Think positive thoughts, SFG. At least we're lynching Max.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I very much doubt Sniper's playing a game with you, Haylen.

Slaxx, are those cases still coming?

SFG, why aren't you voting?

Vote Count:
(3) Max: Steam-Powered Shovel, Furry, Nikanor, Sniper
(2) Sniper: Pulindar, Haylen
(2) Haylen: Alduskkel, Slaxx

Not Voting: Max, SFG

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

SPS because he seems to

know

that Sniper isn't playing a game with me by following my votes.

Or maybe I just don't buy your outlandish theory?

Max, the reason I want you to vote for someone is because I want you to put up a fight. The more struggle you put up before your death, the more info and interactions we have to analyze after you're gone. And the best way to put up a struggle is to push for a competing wagon.
I want to see you fight for your life, Max. I want to see you sweat, scream and bleed all the way to the noose. And the only way you're going to have any chance to survive this day is if you start and push a competing bandwagon.
Make it happen, Max.

So, you are tunneling on me openly... right, how incredibly townie of you.

Vote: Furry

That quote is from Nikanor, which you must have been aware of, but the vote suggests it's from Furry. Scummy.

Regarding Furry's gut read on Sniper: a null tell as far as I'm concerned, as I can't tell whether he's genuine. Does suggest to me that they have different alignments.

Being wrong isn't a scum tell, if you think that Max attacking a Town read of yours is scummy.

I know. I just liked seeing it, since it fit with my narrative.

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Ald

First thing I noticed, you've FoS'd and/or voted:
Haylen
horrordude0215 (Furry)
Max
Sniper
Me
Slaxx
and Puli
So basically you've FoS'd every living person except for SPS and Nikanor, and no dead person. This is making me ve-ry uneasy about you. Also at the end of Day 1 you wuzzled around carefully not making cases on anyone but being "unhappy" with prime lynch targets. I am not surprised that you are still alive toDay.

What is making you uneasy exactly? That he hasn't FoSed/voted dead people?

I agree with Max's assessment that if he was trying to kill the greatest threat to his continued existence, he would have killed Furry. The conclusion I draw here is that if Max is scum, Furry is probably his partner.

I really think you're going too far in your NK analysis here. It is hard to know what the scum are thinking. Maybe the scum group is Max+Townie-looking person and they decided they'd rather try to nail an opposing scumbag, thereby distracting the town from Max and helping Townie-looking person survive. Determining who a scum group would kill is a highly non-trivial matter.

Me

I was actually surprised that I wasn't nightkilled because a very large number of people have me down as being one of their towniest reads, barring themselves. The only reason I can think that I would have survived is if either 1. scum was aiming for opposing scum or 2. I was chasing the wrong people yesterday.

Or 3. they did not want to kill the same person as the other scum group or 4. they knew that you tended to do NK analysis, so kept you alive so that you would implicate the wrong person. I can probably think of more possible reasons if I saw any reason to. You're being a bit short-sighted here.

SPS

Max is "#2 suspect"
Also suspicious of Haylen and it's hard for me to glean what his #1 suspect was?

Nicodemus!

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What is making you uneasy exactly? That he hasn't FoSed/voted dead people?

The fact that he threw mostly ungrounded suspicion at almost everyone, and the few people he left out died. So basically he had "prior support" to lynch any one of the living people today, depending on which way the wind blows.

I just ISOed him and I really think you're overstating the importance of his FoSes.

I really think you're going too far in your NK analysis here. It is hard to know what the scum are thinking. Maybe the scum group is Max+Townie-looking person and they decided they'd rather try to nail an opposing scumbag, thereby distracting the town from Max and helping Townie-looking person survive. Determining who a scum group would kill is a highly non-trivial matter.

Actually if you'll notice, I said "If Max was trying to kill the greatest threat to his continued existence" not "because Max would be trying to kill the greatest threat to his continued existence." Meaning I did consider the other possibility.

I noticed. I presented that scenario to illustrate my point that it is hard to figure out what the scum are thinking and thus, that you were going too far in concluding that Maxscum implied a FurryMax pairing.

Furthermore, steady, backwards-looking analysis is exactly the kind of scumhunting that I do at lylo because I don't want to make a mistake and because it works. And until someone can prove to me that this scumhunting of mine DOESN'T work, since thus far every single time I've done this kind I have tagged every remaining scum and only scum (100% accuracy), I'm gonna stick with it. kthnxbai.

I'll give you an example of it failing in Himalayan Mafia.

What I'm thinking here is that creampuffeater was very unlikely to avoid the lynch with Fuldu still alive. Ignoring all the WIFOM, creampuffeaterscum would absolutely be in a better position, with a vocal opponent gone. Any other scum would be down a vocal opponent of someone else and down the possibility that they both would be lynched due to Fuldu's strong suspicions. Even if this nightkill would lead to a creampuffeaterlynch, that lynch was likely to happen even without this nightkill and this nightkill is taking away a possible follow-up in the form of a Fuldulynch. All in all, I think this most certainly is a real argument against creampuffeater.

As it turned out, the final remaining scum, MBL, hadn't even considered Fuldu's suspicion of cpe and just killed him for being an experienced player. MBL probably made the wrong choice, but that's probably not that uncommon. You may feel, for example, that a Max-Haylen pairing should have killed Furry, but they don't have to agree with you at all. I disagree with Max on a whole range of issues regarding playstyle, so I'm certainly not going to assume he decides who to kill in the same way as I would.

Or 3. they did not want to kill the same person as the other scum group or 4. they knew that you tended to do NK analysis, so kept you alive so that you would implicate the wrong person. I can probably think of more possible reasons if I saw any reason to. You're being a bit short-sighted here.

I don't honestly believe that any player here does that much homework, and even Nikanor only knows my IRC meta, which does NOT involve NK analysis. As for 3, I again doubt that scum would consider that at this point in the game. They are floundering with the same knowledge of the other scum group that the town has.

I'm not saying they're probable, but they're definitely possible.

It's like an OMGUS FoS.

OMGUS FoSes are awesome. On a more serious note, I agree that him planning to ISO you specifically is weird, I'd like to know what he was thinking there. He really hasn't contributed enough Today.

Pulindar, what do you think of Max?

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Big deal. Everyone commits scum tells, even townies. If not, then scum tells would be 100% accurate, which they are generally not.

I just ISOed him and I really think you're overstating the importance of his FoSes.

Y'know your arguments look more convincing if the pair of you don't try to make two different cover-ups at the same time

If you had also included Alduskkel's next sentence,

Couple that with the fact that I've been FoSing anyone who commits anything above a small scum tell and you get a boatload of FoSes.

I think it becomes much clearer. The way I read his posts is that he FoSes liberally. You almost seem to be interpreting them as weak votes.

I noticed. I presented that scenario to illustrate my point that it is hard to figure out what the scum are thinking and thus, that you were going too far in concluding that Maxscum implied a FurryMax pairing.

And I stated why I thought the alternate scenario was improbable.

Did you? I can't find it.

I'll give you an example of it failing in Himalayan Mafia.

Actually if you'll look, I said "of mine" not "of whoever's." And it does take some common sense to figure out what level of WIFOM the scum was operating on when they made the NK, which is I suppose why NK analysis is so unpopular around here.

It didn't fail because of WIFOM considerations, it failed because the scum had a very different view of the game than I did, which is a trap anyone can fall for. I do believe in NK analysis, I just think you're overestimating its usefulness, probably because it's worked so well for you in the past.

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Did you? I can't find it.

I don't honestly believe that any player here does that much homework, and even Nikanor only knows my IRC meta, which does NOT involve NK analysis. As for 3, I again doubt that scum would consider that at this point in the game. They are floundering with the same knowledge of the other scum group that the town has.

That was about you, we were talking about Max.

It didn't fail because of WIFOM considerations, it failed because the scum had a very different view of the game than I did, which is a trap anyone can fall for. I do believe in NK analysis, I just think you're overestimating its usefulness, probably because it's worked so well for you in the past.

If I read your example correctly, you analyzed the NK on the grounds that someone you weren't expecting to die died, and you assumed that was because his arguments were on-track because scum was the kind of person who would kill off threats to them, but what actually happened is scum was the kind of person to kill off experienced players regardless of whatever threat they may have posed. Therefore you analyzed the kill one level of WIFOM higher than it was actually at. Does this make sense?

There was no WIFOM involved. The scumbag never took into account Fuldu's suspicion of cpe. That's the fundamental point, I was thinking "Ok, Fuldu's very suspicious of cpe, who would want to kill him?" whereas the scum was thinking "hey, I'm doing pretty well, let's kill off experienced players who might catch me later, let's say Fuldu".

I have never seen a FoS used as anything other than either a warning that a vote may be soon incoming or a secondary vote target. Are you suggesting that there is any other reason to FoS?

I have seen it used as a shorthand for "I find this suspicious" plenty of times and that's how I use FoSes too. It needn't indicate long-term suspicion.

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That was about you, we were talking about Max.

You lost me.

If you want to find the way again, just follow the quotes back. Don't feel pressured to though, this dialogue wasn't exactly promising.

There was no WIFOM involved. The scumbag never took into account Fuldu's suspicion of cpe. That's the fundamental point, I was thinking "Ok, Fuldu's very suspicious of cpe, who would want to kill him?" whereas the scum was thinking "hey, I'm doing pretty well, let's kill off experienced players who might catch me later, let's say Fuldu".

Thats exactly what I just said. Because you attributed one more level of WIFOM than was present, you got it wrong. There was no intended WIFOM, but you used one level of WIFOM in your analysis. Which is why you were wrong.

I don't see any WIFOM in my analysis, I was just trying to determine what would be the optimal scum move, taking into account that people rarely do nk analysis. I was wrong because I focused on something the scum hadn't even bothered to consider.

Max, I'd rather just lynch you.

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You need to send Haylen your role.

The issue here is that this discussion is getting nowhere, as you seem to be tunneled into believing that I am scum by faulty logic.

I believe SFG and I are arguing about the power of nk analysis, so I don't see how that would even be relevant.

P.S. You're scum.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I would like everyone here to do a little mental exercise. Pretend that we lynched Max and he flipped town. Who would you think the scum were? How much detail could you give about the two separate scum teams?

Then I would think the scum were Haylen, Pulindar and two out of Sniper, Nikanor and Furry.

Haylen I've already talked about.
Pulindar is on the list since I feel his stance on Sniper is one which scum could easily go for. I also don't like his behaviour when we got around to lynching Nico.
Sniper, Nikanor and Furry I really have a null read on, but that's why he have process of elimination.

I haven't really thought about possible scum teams, as I don't think it's helpful at this point in the game. (Although Sniper and Furry probably have different alignments.)

P.S. Way to forget who you think the scum are, Max. And I already explained why I think you're scum.

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I wouldn't say I stepped in for Alduskkel. I first asked you to clarify what you found suspicious, then I stated I disagreed with your assessment

after

he responded to your accusation, and then we had a little discussion. I made my opinion clear, but I didn't pre-empt Alduskkel.

Also, if I had stepped in, it wouldn't reflect equally badly, since I could've been setting up Alduskkel in addition to possibly being his partner.

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That's a mistake. I meant to say that Sniper and you probably weren't scumbuddies. I was talking about two of Sniper, Nikanor, and you being scum in a hypothetical situation prior to that, that's most likely why I screwed up.

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Huh, weird. Objectively speaking, that does suggest I might know your alignment or Sniper's. Nice catch. Shows you're scumhunting. It's a shame that it's really just a mistake.

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BTW St. Kerrigan I know we talked about it before, but I'd still really like to be a rebel with Haylen. I know you can still switch things around and make that work.

This just kind of makes my gut cringe a little bit. Why not an Arkon? It sounds like he IS a rebel and is dissatisfied with his partner. I don't feel Puli would ever be this obvious so its null for now, but definitely worth noting.

Or, alternatively, he IS an Arkon and doesn't want to link himself to the Arkons.

Haylen/Nik and SPS/Al

No Max?

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"suppose if max flipped town"

"If you are not on the Max wagon, insert the name of the person you are currently voting for instead."

(Although I should've realized you were working off of that assumption since you did include Haylen among your scum.)

SPS what do you think of my little Haylen-Nik connection

I disagree with your assessment. I think the basic idea was to give Haylen enough rope to hang herself. If you suspect that Haylenscum would act a certain way when not under pressure, it's a good idea to remove the pressure. Probably shouldn't have made it explicit, especially since she had good reasons to vote Nico anyway, but seeing as Haylen has been active-lurking I sincerely doubt it was coaching.

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I'm not bothered by the timing of the vote, Slaxx, as Nicodemus' post merited a vote. Also, I doubt anyone was taking the Haylenwagon very seriously.

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How will switching to Nikanor help, exactly?

As for why I think she's town? Meta partially, but also because I always think she's town. I've read through over half of her games, and I have yet to believe she's anything but town when reading blind.

Then take that into account. If your instinct always says she's town, then you should never think she's town based on instinct; it's clearly unreliable in this case.

Unofficial Vote Count:
(3) Max: Steam-Powered Shovel, Furry, Nikanor
(2) Sniper: Pulindar, Haylen
(1) Haylen: Alduskkel
(1) Furry: Max
(1) Alduskell: SFG
(1) Slaxx: Sniper
(1) Nikanor: Slaxx

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

SPS is reading this thread lots but not posting how many times have I seen his name at the "currently reading this forum" and not posted... I don't know but quite a large number

Do you feel I'm not posting enough? I don't always have something useful to say. (Also: procrastination.)

Puli, about your long rant post, I think that you're being seriously impaired by your tunnelling on Sniper. I've reported him to mith for trolling and I can only hope that something comes of that. However, at this point we really really want to lynch scum and people aren't going to be willing to policy-lynch Sniper today, so you NEED to find another scum and get on their lynch, and you NEED to do that before the deadline hits.

Agreed.

I think the best thing the town can do atm is consolidate votes on either Nikanor or Ald.

I think the best thing the town can do is lynch Max.

Also, Sniper, I think you should vote for Nikanor because I investigated him with my polygraph machine last night and found out that he is lying.

Lies! Don't trust her, Sniper. Keep voting for Max.

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I'm happy for any lynch to go through over my own. I'm the only person I know is town so it's a 50:50 chance to hit scum voting for anyone else. (Just under)

Except you don't get to lynch a random person. If you had a button that would cause Slaxx (or SFG if you think her more town-looking) to be lynched instead of you, would you press it?

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Yes. I cannot guarantee that any other player is town. I can prove to myself that I am town.

Therefore though I would rather press a button on one of my scum list I would still choose any other player over myself.

That's a very short-term way of looking at things. Avoiding getting lynched today is pointless if you get lynched tomorrow, so there should be people you don't want to lynch even if it means getting lynched yourself.

Why does Sniper have to be paired with SPS?

Where is the link with sniper to anyone?

In other people's posts, mostly.

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I've certainly argued my point on Nikanor rather a lot today.

Fairly sure this isn't accurate.

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Furry's giving me good vibes here. He gets to join the category of "Sorta town-looking people".

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The problem isn't really waffling, it's more a lack of consensus. I don't think there's anyone who more than 3 people can agree on. (I'm not counting Sniper as he hasn't shown himself capable of agreeing with anything.)

Although Pulindar really should drop the Sniperthing and do something that's relevant

Today

.

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Hey, SPS, I see you lurking there. Planning on posting something?

Was there anything you particularly felt I needed to comment on?

I am sufficiently active that there's no need for me to post every time I check this forum.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Short summary: Max is scum, you are too, unclear who the other two scum are.

Max and Sniper are innocent, imo.

Why do you think Sniper is innocent? A null read is quite understandable, but thinking he's innocent requires a little more.

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SPS, why haven't you asked your scum-buddy furry why he thinks sniper is town.

When Furry first stated this opinion, I asked him whether it was a gut read, to which he replied positively.

More precisely why can't SFG agree with the crap-logik provided when you accepted it?

Firstly, it's not crap logic. Secondly, SFG hasn't given any indication of agreeing with it. Thirdly, I feel I should clarify that I think Furry's logic shows a pro-town mindset, but I don't accept it as being applicable in the situation we're in.

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1. I made that post while running out the door. This explains why 2. I exaggerated my standpoint more than a little bit. I am not nearly sure enough that Sniper is scum and I agree with him being a fat mislynch target of the type that I mentioned trying to avoid on Day 1 enough that I am not going to risk a lynch on him.

'kay.

Nikanor, on the other hand, I am almost positive is scum and has done nothing to convince me otherwise and has, indeed, lurked his ass off for the decisive part of today. Just look at his most recent 5 posts.

I agree that she's been lurking, but I don't see how that makes her scum. I don't see how her non-posting has been useful for her.

Mod

, could you prod Nikanor? She was last seen making herself a sandwich 5-6 days ago.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Unofficial Vote Count:
(5) Nikanor: Slaxx, SFG, Nikanor, Alduskkel, DeathNote
(4) Max: Steam-Powered Shovel, Furry, Nikanor, Sniper
(1) Sniper: Pulindar

So unless someone unvotes Nikanor, she will certainly be lynched. And this day was looking so promising too.

This solidifies my theory that we have a Max-Haylen/DeathNote scum pairing. Note how he doesn't even mention Max in that last post.

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How does this make Max the scum when I've been the driving force behind the Nik lynch?

It doesn't. I don't even have a problem with Max voting for Nikanor. Max and Haylen/DeathNote were already my two main suspects. DeathNote's latest post mostly strenghtened the connection between the two: bussing would be a pretty terrible move for scum here, I'd say. On top of that, he didn't even mention Max; scum are often unsure as to what to say about their partners.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

What's with the snark, Max? Trying to undermine me?

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I find it more unsettling that she hasn't posted at all despite her prod, not even to acknowledge her need to catch up and do something. I've seen her post elsewhere, so it's not inactivity. It's like she's given up on this game.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Well this changes things.

DN, you're still scum. That my pet theory got shot down, doesn't change all that much.

Does anyone else have thoughts on the just one kill?

The night wasn't that long, so I'd suspect someone missed their kill, presumably Nik's partner. I kinda suspect that Sniper is Nik's partner now. It would explain the lack of kill and Nikanor's apathy when she was getting run up.

I'm a little insulted that I was spot on about both Max and Nik and yet I'm still not threat enough to be killed I've never had that honor before on this site and I was hoping I'd actually earned it T.T but I guess not, or at least not yet.
*sad*

I doubt scum went after Max because they felt he was a threat, so there's no real reason to feel insulted.

P.S. Slaxx, I am not scum. People often think I am, regardless of alignment. I can provide examples.

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I agree with Alduskkel.

If we identify the final Rebel and then lynch an Arkon, there's no motive for crosskilling. (The Arkon will know the Rebel is very lynchable, while the Rebel would be more worried about the town lynching him. (Although I have no idea who Sniper would kill.))

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Someone, can't check who right now, said that Max wasn't killed for being a threat. Personally, I agree, but I want your reasoning.

That was me. I don't believe Max has convinced anyone to vote for who he suspects; he doesn't seem to really work with the town, only placing meaningful votes at the very last moment. Finally, his current suspicions are Furry, Alduskkel (both of which are pretty unlynchable) and me. I know I'm town, but it also makes very little sense for me to kill Max as a threat objectively since Slaxx and you both expressed suspicion of me yesterday too (and you're both playing a better game than Max).

Also when it comes down to which scum we lynch, I'd prefer we kill Arkon since knowing one of a pair is a great aid to finding the other and as well, we don't know if the other guy will forget to kill again I can keep around a scum that doesn't kill in favor of one who does any day.

That's a valid point, although we can't be sure it was the Rebels that failed to kill.

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I'll concede, Furry, that Pulindar's voting record certainly allows for him to be scum with Nikanor. I still think Sniper's a more likely partner.

On top of all that, he is now calling for a lynch of scum B, when a lynch of scum A is going to put him right in the crosshairs of the town. He says its due to chances of scum cross killing, but in this situation a lynch of scum B will result in both scum shooting for town, probably hitting, and we are still in basically lylo for the rest of the game. It can even create a very worst case scenario in such that we lose three more town, almost making it unwinable.

I believe you're the first person to accuse him of being scum with Nikanor specifically, so this doesn't fly.

Also I think I brought up the possibility of a nokill from the Arkons to frame Sniper.

Which would be weird, since we'd rather lynch an Arkon.

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Wasn't I supposed to be Nikanor's partner?

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Slaxx, it takes a little longer for my opinions to crystallise, I'm not sure why you consider that a scum tell.

Puli is my strongest scum read, but I don't want to vote because it seems we're going to try to lynch an Arkon. The thing is, I think Puli is scum/was scum with Nikanor. However, SPS's defense yesterday of Nik makes me not think that. I want everyone's opinions. Motivation for SPS to not lynch Nikanor either means it was his scumbuddy, he honestly thought Nik was town, or he was trying to push a lynch on someone of the opposite scumteam.

I was voting for my #1 suspect. There's no way I switch to Nikanor there; alignment doesn't enter into the equation.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

And what do you think of Pulindar and Slaxx?

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Seriously, DeathNote? Just going to give up like that?

Can we lynch him already?

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It's a ridiculous vote. On the top of the page you didn't seem to have a problem with Slaxx. Then he grills you some more and votes for you and all of a sudden he's a big enough suspect to justify voting for him on a day we really need to get a good lynch. You expect me to buy that?

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I thought I was already voting for him. Guess not.

Vote: DeathNote

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

VC
DeathNote - 2 (Slaxx, SPS)
Pulindar - 1 (Furry)
Slaxx - 1 (DeathNote)
Alduskkel - 1 (Sniper)
Sniper - 1 (Alduskkel)

Not Voting - 2 (SFG, Pulindar)

Deadline is on Monday, April 19th, 2010, at 8:00 p.m. CST.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Furthermore, if Puli were scum with Nik, he would have NK'd Sniper ages ago, because he would have either thought Sniper was on the opposite scum team or just found Sniper intolerable to play with and needing elimination. Puli is town.

I disagree. I think Pulindarscum is a very real possibility and if he is, I suspect his stated suspicion of Sniper is a calculated move on his part; certainly there's no real reason to suppose that Pulindarscum genuinely suspects Sniper. And killing someone because they're intolerable to play with is just bad play. Even if he wants to go for it, he still has to get his partner to agree. (If Pulindar is a Rebel, then, obviously, he wouldn't have needed his partner's approval last Night, but 1) I think Arkon is somewhat more likely for Puli and 2) Nikanor could've convinced Night 1 not to do it.)

It's a crazy scum pair who tries to WIFOM right now and honestly if they did, they've both half-jinxed themselves and if they pull a victory, they deserve to win.

You made it very clear on Day 2 that you take NK analysis seriously, so I wouldn't call it crazy. Although it's definitely not likely.

Sniper being town was everything! There is no way that I'm going to lynch someone who I think is town, even if at the same time they aren't the most valuable town member. I'm not going to even start to argue that he isn't a liability, but what I am going to continue to push is that he is town, lynching town is going to be worse then either winning the game before lylo, or having him in lylo.

I agree with this sentiment. (I don't think Sniper's town though, so it's moot.)

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Flurry... meta holds no bar on me. If you posted those games to prove something about how you always post like that, then I could really care less.

You didn't even try to determine Furry motivation for posting that, did you? The quote's right there in the post. You're so obviously scum.

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Furry, could you remind why you think Puli is scum A specifically? 'Cause DN-Puli looks like a realistic scum pairing to me.

SFG, you don't need to keep reminding Furry.

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Its a few pages back. If you want it quoted I will

I found it. Definitely reasonable in isolation, but considering everything Pulindar makes more sense as mafia B in my opinion.

Slaxx, no, you're not the only one.

Time to lynch DeathNote. I don't see any point in waiting any longer.

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Sniper or Pulindar is/was scum with Nikanor.

Agree, if it's not Sniper, Pulindar makes most sense

Deathnote is part of mafia B.

Agree

Deathnote is not Nikanor's partner.

Agree, since it's the same thing

Pulidar is part of mafia B.

Probably

It is possible for Pulindar and Deathnote to be partners.

Agree

SFG has been doing some pretty heavy scum hunting. I could see (possibly) her being scum with Nika, but I highly doubt it. Still I always need to take bussing into account.

Why with Nika specifically? I'd think it pretty obvious that if SFG is scum, she'd be mafia B. And bussing would've been a horrible move: SFG was already more likely to get NKed than lynched at the point, so you'd be sacrificing your partner for arguably no benefit. This is an Arkon tell, right here.

Re: "Rushing", DN is clearly the consensus-lynch. I don't see why we should wait with lynching him without a specific reason (like SFG needing more time to do a specific analysis.). Needlessly dragging out the day is likely to lead to less activity later.

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Until post 92, out of your 96 posts, you did not say that you thought I was a likely possibility as scum.

I point you to post 59 where I answered SFG's question as to where my suspicions would lie if Max flipped town:

Then I would think the scum were Haylen, Pulindar and two out of Sniper, Nikanor and Furry.

Haylen I've already talked about.
Pulindar is on the list since I feel his stance on Sniper is one which scum could easily go for. I also don't like his behaviour when we got around to lynching Nico.
Sniper, Nikanor and Furry I really have a null read on, but that's why he have process of elimination.

Certainly, at the beginning of Day 3 my suspicion of you wasn't on the same level as my suspicions of DeathNote and Sniper. That's why I didn't mention it earlier. I don't really feel the need to share all my reads at all times.

In my town games you can see that I often attack the player acting newb scum. It seems to me that those actions are in fact scummy. I feel that sniper is trying to use a newb ploy to get null reads from people who don't want to give a mislynch. It's a good tactic, and I think he's using it to his advantage. Based on his play and the way he's doing it I suspect that sniper is in fact an alt of someone just testing something out.

If you think he's really an alt messing with us, how are your examples relevant? Ani and Ythan aren't alts. Their behaviour may have been somewhat similar, but mafia is a game of motivation. You're doing something very different.

In isolation I seem like scum B, yet you say I'm a very viable choice in the next post to be scum A??? you're flip flopping here.

Fairly sure I never said that, but if I did, it was probably a typo. Please point it out to me.

Also, care to bring some evidence rather than just saying (In ISO he appears scum).

Where did I say that? I think you're scum 'cause of your stance on Sniper, lack of content of Day 2 and your stance on DN today.

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Second: Ythan is an Alt.

Did not know that. Whose? More importantly, was that common knowledge or did you go after Ythan because you suspected he was an alt?

Agree, if it's not Sniper, Pulindar makes most sense

post 96. This is what I meant when you said it was viable for me to be scum A. I suppose you could just be that confident in Sniper being scum A.

I think you need to consider that as far as I'm concerned, Alduskkel, Slaxx and SFG are cleared. DN is definitely not Nikanor's partner given that crucial Nikavote. So if Sniper's not a Rebel, there are only 2 possible Rebels left! I don't think you're a Rebel, but you being a Rebel makes more sense than Furry being one.

. Definitely reasonable in isolation, but considering everything Pulindar makes more sense as mafia B in my opinion.

That's where you say it, post 95. Still, that did not mean that you had provided evidence.

If you consider the context of post 95, I think it's clear I'm saying that Furry's case for you being scum A is reasonable considered in a vacuum.

My stance on Sniper is the same stance you have begun to take.

I was referring to the fact that you think that his posting is scummy, something I'm definitely not beginning to do.

Lack of content day 2 is not a reason, in my mind, to consider me scum. I don't attack people when I'm not confident, and frankly I was discouraged after we didn't get the sniper lynch. I saw no reason to provide content as, so it seemed to me, no one would listen to reason.

Townies have a responsibility to provide content and in a game with 4 scum there's plenty scum to find. It seems to me that you used your position on Sniper as an excuse for active lurking.

What is my stance on DN today, in your words?

You got the impression that Haylen was town, but, well, you always get that impression, so you're thinking that maybe it's meaningless and so you're not sure what to do. Maybe you should vote for DN, maybe you shouldn't.

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I suggest you stay away from it, SFG. You can't get anything substantial from it without influencing Furry.

I do agree that Puli's looking a little better now, although he's still my main suspect for third scum left.

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I'm also really starting to wonder why I began to doubt that SPS was scum. As far as I can tell, I thought he was scum until he started saying "everyone always thinks I'm scum when I'm actually town" in every other post he made, and then I felt bad and let him slide off my radar.

I said something like that once, I believe, certainly no more than twice.

Puli wouldn't have been scum because he would have killed Sniper

You still think that? Seems a little naive.

P.S. No insult taken. You don't know me well enough to know I wouldn't be incompetent scum.

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@DNwagon: I find Pulindar's position on the DNwagon wholly consistent with the notion that he's DN's partner, so no, I don't see anything strange about the DNwagon. If it's not Pulindar, I think it's Sniper or you, Furry. In either case, again, no problem. You did say you'd get on the wagon but that was a time when the DN-lynch seemed unavoidable and you never actually voted.

I usually am a very early death in games, so when im not dying, I tend to think something is wrong, especially when there is lack of PRs.

I'm not at all surprised that you're still alive. SFG and Slaxx are better kills for the scum if they're taking out town-looking players and there are better suspects for scum. And your reads have been wrong so far.

I heard SPS was an alt, but never got a name... Someone who's been around for years

I'm not really an alt. I forgot the password to my old account and the relevant e-mail is non-functional. I doubt my old account name will mean anything to you, but if you want to figure it out, my AIM handle should help. (Alternatively, give me a reason why it would benefit the town.)

And Alduskkel is not Phoebus because he's clearly not.

Post Preview Edit: An Aldwagon is a bad idea. He's town.

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"cleared" may have been sloppy language on my part, they're just strong town reads. Although it makes very little difference currently in practical terms.

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Random Slaxx Fact: This is the longest game I've played in.

When you say "longest", do you mean in terms of pages or time?

Fun SPS Fact: the longest game I've played in lasted over 400 days. (Number 3 on the all-time list.) I only played 10 days of it though.

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Ugh. Are you guys sure you can't trust me on this one? I have accurate town reads.

If we're really going to fail to lynch DN because no one is opposing his lynch and mislynch Alduskkel instead, I'm going to hit someone with a chair.

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What are the scumgroups then?

My guess is Sniper-Nikanor and DN-Puli.

I read some of DN's scum game. Pretty similar play. DN just seems to be one of those players which are hard to read due to lack of content. Still don't like that Slaxx-vote (and it obviously doesn't change how I view Haylen's play).

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DN, nope. I do think it's similar on a fundamental level. You just got to talk about role-related stuff more in that game. Post 1-27 of the iso are similar to your play here, past post 27 there's virtually no content which isn't role-related, which seems to me to be the natural extrapolation of the playstyle displayed in this game into a situation with lots of role interactions to comment on.

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You tried to push a mislynch, and then the town realized it was a mislynch, so you are now trying to sneak your vote off of him while you try to find a new mislynch to push.

The deadline's on monday. Who is he going to getting lynched in that time?

A Vote Count
Alduskkel - 3 (Sniper, SFG, Furry)
DeathNote - 2 (Slaxx, SPS)
Slaxx - 1 (DeathNote)
Sniper - 1 (Pulindar)

Not Voting - 1 (Alduskkel)

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You're right. I just went off of the latest VC by Haylen. That changes things.

DeathNote - 4 (Slaxx, SPS, Sniper, Alduskkel)
Alduskkel - 2 (SFG, Furry)
Slaxx - 1 (DeathNote)
Sniper - 1 (Pulindar)

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SFG, he never says DN is probably town. His vote is completely reasonable.

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That's him unvoting, SFG. There's nothing in that post which suggests he suddenly thinks DN is probable town. Him asking for DN scum meta implies, in my eyes, that he's still actively considering DN as a possible mafioso.

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Don't give up, SFG. I understand that's frustrating when people don't listen to you when you really think you've caught scum, but that's just part of the game.

I really disagree with the Sniperlynch as I am not at all confident that we'd be able to lynch correctly the last two days.

(Although if Sniper were scum B, a Sniperlynch would of course be awesome.)

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It is very possible that if we screw up, we'll never get back into a position in which we can afford to lynch Sniper. Which means that there's motive for the Arkons to kill Sniper themselves.

It's really very simple: if we lynch scum 3 days in a row, we win. If we mislynch once going for Sniper first, we lose. If we mislynch once avoiding Sniper today, we still have a shot at winning.

Lynching Sniper today leaves us with the same problem tomorrow, except that we're probably one useful townie (Slaxx or SFG, most likely) down. We'd just postponing having to deal with it.

Sorry to hear that, SFG. As Pulindar said, there's nothing wrong with taking some V/LA time or just plain being less active.

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Duped? How so, Slaxx?

Furry, I'm not sure how likely crosskilling is, but we shouldn't give up on it without getting anything in return.

I would rather lynch him today given that he fits for A and B, and given that is such a small chance of him actually ever being NKed.

If you believe there's a reasonable chance he's scum B, then sure, he's a good lynch.

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Okay, good point. We should still to try to hit an Arkon though.

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So...

Can we get back to lynching DeathNotescum?

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I have some trouble believing that's Haylen town meta; too extreme. The complete lack of content in posts strikes me as more than just laziness; I get the feeling she didn't want to be helpful or comment on things.

I wouldn't say DN has played to his town meta, I'd say DN has played like he usually plays (as far as I can tell). When people play that type of game, it can be hard to get a read on them. I like to focus somewhat more on concrete actions when faced with such player; the Slaxxvote for example was atrocious.

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Ah guys, come on, Alduskkel is town. I promise.

P.S. "guys" should be interpreted in a non-gender specific way here.

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SPS, you thought Nik was town =P

Nopes. I had a null read on Nikanor at the time of her lynch.

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I don't particularly believe that,Alduskkel, they just happen to be wrong about you.

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I have a strong town read on you. And mislynches have a tendency to hurt the town.

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Hey, Reck, I wouldn't hold it against you if you gave up. You're scummity scum and we all know it.

The town seems to have mostly cleared myself, Slaxx, and Furry for reasons somewhat beyond my understanding. That is, I understand how Furry is clear, but not how Slaxx and myself are.

I wouldn't put Furry in the same category personally. And at least 2 people have expressed suspicion of Slaxx (Furry and DN).

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Just wanted to state that if anyone was pushing for me being possible scum because Haylen was scummy, i would like to know who.

Me! You really should know why people are suspicious of you.

Thus far today, people have pushed for the easiest lynch with the exception of SFG which is why I am having a hard time picking out scum cause... everyone seems partially scummy.

Sometimes the easier lynches are easier because the targets are legitimately scummy. Have you even bothered to look at motivations?

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I agree with you on Pulindar, Reck. That's pretty much exactly why I think he's scum.

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It seems to be consistent with how she views the game, Reck. She just overvalues NK analysis.

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Okay. If the DN-lynch isn't happening,

unvote, vote: Pulindar

.

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What does Ald think of SPS and vice versa?

I think Ald is town as I've said a couple times now.

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No. It's a gut read.

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Most of your early day attention seems to be fixated on A. Also im still not of the boat "B is obviously the better lynch". I would be perfectly fine with an A lynch today, since with a B one its not a cakewalk if crosskills dont pan out, and I dont think scum will try to crosskill with B lynch.

Not the first Night, no. But it does leave open the possibility. It's essentially pretty simple. If we lynch perfectly, then the order doesn't matter and we'll win. Lynching A means we have to lynch perfectly, not doing so means we have alternative ways of winning. (For example, if we mislynch today, the town can't afford to lynch xReck unless there's a crosskill, so xReck won't shoot scum B that Night, but scum B may well decide to take out xReck thereby ensuring they only need one mislynch to win. (Assuming xReck is scum A here.))

ok out of Ald and Puli, I would rather lynch Ald.

unvote

Vote: Alduskkel

Especially since

SPS is voting the other person.

Pulindar is my partner.

Fixed!

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I think DN thinks you are scum, SPS.

That's what he claims, sure, I got that. I was merely suggesting that wasn't the real reason for his vote.

Yes, lynch of A (followed by no lynch) puts us in a 3:2 endgame, where what happens on the first lynch likely decides the game. Lynching B followed by no cross kill puts us at 3:1:1, where we still need two successful lynches. Scum shooting for crosskill makes its 4:1 with a B lynch, meaning they would need two mislynches. Even if we lynch B, chances are scum arent going to intentionally help us.

I agreed with you that the scum won't go for a crosskill if we lynch scum B the first Night. As long as the town keeps lynching correctly, scum have very little motive to go after the other group. If, on the other hand, we mislynch, then still having 2 scum groups could save our bacon.

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Well, not much I can do about his play. As I've already stated, I'm VT, so take that how you will. People who were/are suspicious of my predecessor: what do you think of my play (in iso) so far, independent of my predecessor's play?

It's fine. I like your reasons for being suspicious of Pulindar, but hunting for scum B is obviously the right play as scum A or town.

Your predecessor was scummy for a variety of reasons: Nikanor's defense of him, Nikanor's strange apathy later on, absence of second kill last night and simple process of elimination. His scumminess was completely unrelated to his actual posts since he simply posted like an idiot.

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Yay! We're lynching scum.

Furry, Pulindar-DN works. Deal with it.

Plus, you don't have to justify Town reads. Town read is the default read. You have to justify Scum reads.

The default read is a null read (you could call it a town read, but then what do you call it when you think someone is more likely to be town than he should be on average?). Town reads are less important, generally speaking, but still require justification.

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As things stand, we're lynching Pulindar at the deadline, xReck.

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Ok, so this should be easy.

So who do we want lynch first? xReck or DN?

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Actually, giving it some thought, I think it's clear who the right lynch is.

If we're wrong about either, then we need to lynch that person Today and then the 2 real scum (presumably Furry and the other one since I'm fairly sure about Alduskkel's innocence) need to kill each other. I don't trust DN to make the right call in that situation (which is killing Furry), so

Vote: DN

.

Leaning to a DN vote at this point though, since even though it would be ego-boost to see Adul-Slaxx pairing, I doubt its the case. DN is only other option.

What are you on about? Alduskkel-Slaxx? Slaxx is dead and town. xReck is the remaining scum A and DN is the remaining scum B.

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I'm convinced that you DN and you are scum. You can call that tunneling if you want.

And let's be realistic here: DN and you are getting lynched . The only task left to the town is figuring out which order.

Actually, now that I think about, I believe the correct play for you is to vote for yourself since if you're a townie, we're better off mislynching you Today than Tomorrow. (Kind of ironic since you replaced Sniper over self-voting.)

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Let me get this straight - if I'm a townie (which I am), it's better for me to vote myself (the only person whose alignment I know for a fact), so that you guys can mislynch me today (which assumes you KNOW you're going to wind up mislynching me), when there are only five people and two scum left.

That's literally the scummiest thing ever, and the fact that you're trying to go all ho-hum and drive the town like there's NO OTHER OPTION outside of lynching me is fucking ridiculous, not to mention your hilariously bad suggestion that, as a townie, I should vote myself to get the mislynch over with.

Last time I checked there was near-universal agreement as to you being scum. If you're a townie, then I'm fairly sure you'll get mislynched. Of course there are other options, but I'm fairly sure you're scum, so I'm not considering those; I want to lynch you.

If you think you're going to avoid getting lynched (assuming town still gets 2 days), then you're dreaming, xReck.

Seeing as how the only scenario where town can certainly win if I vote myself, knowing that I'm a townie, is if they shoot each other (or kill the same person), I'm going to say that your plan is literally the worst idea I've ever heard. I'm now happy with my vote on you. I think DeathNote is the most likely candidate for your opposing scum enemy.

I think the only realistic scenario in which you're town and you win involves you getting lynched today. And if we do mislynch, both scum will aim for each other since that's the route to victory. If you think the scum are catchable, then the scum shooting each other is, in fact, the most likely outcome, really. Lynching yourself can be a great tactical move.

Ok, allow me to explain a huge error in everyones thought process right now: You are all voting with 100% assumptions that you are lynching scum. How the hell could you know that unless your the mod? Even a cop investigation could possibly be insane.

I'm not. I'm actively trying to minimize the negative consequences of being wrong about either of you. But xReck and you make so much more sense as scum than Furry and Alduskkel that I literally can not see myself voting for either Furry or Alduskkel.

BTW- I want it noticed who is not hammering right now. There are two scum left at the moment and they are not trying to cross kill as they went for the most pro-town people... (Slaxx is questionable but apparently more pro town then the rest of us.)

I believe scum would leap on any hammer right now as this is practically lylo for town. I just don't understand why scum are not going for each other.

If we mislynch, then scum will take a shot at each other. If we lynch correctly, town gets to lynch again. Furryscum would be taking a completely unnecessary risk by hammering you now.

Unvote

since my original reason for voting DN over xReck is null and void. (xReckscum can't be trusted to make the right decision if we mislynch.)

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Voting for himself is actually the correct play for DN if he's town. He's not going to convince us.

(Alduskkel's recent post suggests it may not be the correct play for xReck.)

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Eh, you know what? There's no point to this. You guys aren't going to lynch xReck first even though it probably wins us more games because DN is such obvious scum,

So let's just end this right here. There's no point to dragging it out.

Vote: DeathNote

.

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Here's ours. Although Pulindar and I didn't talk much.

Dammit, xReck, why couldn't you take my self-vote suggestion seriously? That's what confirmed it in my eyes.

I went after Max because I remembered lurking in a similar way in Face-to-Face when the competing were me and my scum buddy. Knowing the best result is lynching your partner would cause apathy.

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Oh and I killed SFG because I was counting on the opposing scum team to take out Slaxx. In hindsight I should've taken out Furry since Furry-as-scumA was a realistic losing scenario.

Anyway, well played, Furry (and pretty much everyone else too.) Should've trusted my read on Alduskkel though.

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OH LOOK SPS WAS SCUM

My self-vote suggestion was completely reasonable. If DN had actually been scum, it would've probably been the right move.

CAN someone explain to me why I was "obvtown"? I would like to know what it is...

Nope. Don't think I can.

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No, your self-vote suggestion was stupid.

Consider for a second the scenario in which DN and X are scum (B and A respectively). If we lynch DN, then you have to convince the town to lynch X. If we lynch you, X'd kill DN (I would've thought he was scum if I didn't know he couldn't be B) and all it takes for the town to win is for DN to kill correctly out of me/Furry/Alduskkel. I'd estimate the winning percentage of the first scenario as about 10% (if X isn't me, you'd definitely get lynched, so X has to be me and you have to get me lynched.) and the winning percentage of the second scenario as at least 33%. So yeah, I don't see how it's stupid.

I probably would've pushed it more if I'd been town.