Newbie 991 - Newbieville! (Game Over)

[Aranneas]

I think the point has to be made that no-body is really posting as much as they should; tells off post count are at this point going to be pretty close to null in my interpretation.

That said, I agree with reluctant about scapegoat, particularly in light of his latest post. I may be biased, and if it appears that way to anyone else please call me on it, but I can't find the logic behind his suspicion of my posts. Additionally, rather than press the issue and actually attempt to get a useful read out of me, he has backed off and switched to the target of choice at this point in time - what looks like a safe vote. I wouldn't mind some more insight into what's going on there.

FoS: Scapegoat

. For reals this time.

Likely going to be V/LA this weekend. Am flying to Europe. Should get access again when I land.

[reluctant]

Read: better than when vanilla gets lynched.

That is true for the cumulative stats for all newbie games, but not so for the F11 games.

Also interesting is based on pure luck a day 1 lynch should give you a goon 22.2% of the time. The stats show that goons are only Day 1 lynched 19.8% of the time. Towns are worse than random at picking scum. This makes sense as the scum are also there to influence things, just interesting to see it appear in the stats.

I didn't realize the roleblocker had such a large influence on the game. When a roleblocker is killed day 1 the town wins 72.73% of the time as opposed to just 53.1% when a plain goon is the first killed. Maybe because if there is a roleblocker there is 50% chance of there being both a cop and a doctor (practically more so because it seems mods don't use setups truly randomly and the 7 vanilla townies game is played 22.4% of the time as opposed to the 25% we'd expect).

All of my above comments were based on the F11 stats. I love numbers.

[willows_weep]

My comp screen just died and until I get a new comp I only have this iPod touch and my blackberry both rely on wifi and tmobile. Ie I have limited accEss

[xRECKONERx]

reluctant (4): Thor665, Aranneas, Coach Travis, scapegoat
Aranneas (1): Mrs Sak
scapegoat (1): reluctant

Not voting (3): Anton, DukeJupiter, willows_weep

Prodding Mrs Sak.

[reluctant]

@Mod previous vote count appears to be wrong. Scapegoat voted for me too

I also sent a PM, sorry if this comes across as nagging.

It was already fixed when you posted this. >_>

[reluctant]

It was already fixed when you posted this. >_>

My apologies, I should've double checked the refresh before I clicked submit.

[Thor665]

Reluctant is now at L-1 (that is lynch minus one vote, meaning ONE more vote and he will be lynched)

I do not want anyone hammering (hammering means putting the final vote on a lynch) just yet.

Unvote: reluctant

<---normally I wouldn't do this, but newbies are all insane and love quick hammering.

Reluctant - please consider yourself still at L-1 because it's only fear of newbies that has me currently unvoting.

Also, generally being at L-1 means it's a good time to disclose your role (also called claiming). If you don't want to disclose your role for some reason you should, at the very least, address your attackers and explain how their case on you isn't good and why they should be voting for someone else.

[Thor665]

@Reluctant - you know what, don't claim for my benefit, I don't want to lynch you anymore just yet. I went to relook at the case on you and the case is my RVS reasoning and then other people following my play. That's not strong enough for a claim just yet.

Vote: scapegoat

@scapegoat - why'd you vote reluctant, say it was just to get the ball rolling, and then admit what you're doing looks scummy? If it looks scummy it probably is scummy, so why do it?

[Coach Travis]

Alright, so I have to admit the case on Reluctant isn't seeming as strong right now, since he's been doing better lately, and I like that he gave us a list of reads. Plus, scapegoat has looked scummy to me on basically every one of his posts, and his latest one was really just WTF. It's still too early for a lynch, I think, the game hasn't been nearly active enough yet for us to reach that point, and trying to rush one like that doesn't look good. In fact I think I'd I'll

unvote

,

Vote:scapegoat

, I just haven't liked him at all so far, and he's getting increasingly more scummy as the game goes along.

[scapegoat]

Because at this stage in the game, there is absolutely no way to out yourself as mafia without being dumb. We have absolutely no pressure on mafia right now, until we get some investigations going, and heads start rolling. Even roleclaiming at this point is absolutely useless, because it could just as easily be a lie. Anyone here can say they're vanilla. Even with the most educated guesses, day 1 will be a random vote when it comes right down to it, so why keep putting it off?

With everyone turning their attention to me, I'll go ahead and roleclaim, and if you'd like to verify it by hanging me, so be it. I'm vanilla town, and you'd be wasting a good random lynch.

[Thor665]

@scapegoat - if you really believe all lynches to be townie, why the earlier "scumhunting" efforts, why not just always vote whoever had the most votes? You did your odd dance with Araneas, then unvoted because we hadn't heard from people and then bandwagoned reluctant.

Why do you think you're a bad vote, considering you admit you did something scummy?

Also, if you're really town, I really wish you hadn't claimed.

[willows_weep]

Why do you wish they hadn't claimed vt

[Aranneas]

Because if it's true, it gives the scum one less target in their hunt for PR gold. And if it's not, it will confuse town later on.

UNVOTE: reluctant
VOTE: scapegoat

If roleclaiming is useless, why did you do it?
If it could just as easily be a lie why do you expect us to believe you?
Still haven't addressed this part. If applying pressure is your intent, then

why did you take your vote off of me

?
Moreover

why are you giving up

, we have been at this for all of four pages. That is not pro-town, dude. Throw some opinions out there.

[Aranneas]

UNVOTE: scapegoat

re-FOS scapegoat

L-1 again, apologies

[Aranneas]

wait no, I can't effing count at 1am apparently
VOTE: scapegoat

[Thor665]

@scapegoat - if you really believe all lynches to be townie

*most likely townie
*likely townie
*random
blaargh, brain did not engage fingers on that sentence.

As to the reasons for claiming, the big A pretty much summed up the gist of the issue I have with it. Also, it's not like scapegoat was a raging wagon of win that everyone wanted lynched at that point.

@Travis - how many games have you played of Mafia on this or other boards?

EDIT - and thanks to Aranneas my error no longer looks like the worst of the night, win!

[Coach Travis]

I've completed 4 in total, though 2 were on some other site where it wasn't taken seriously, and the games were awful, so I generally don't count them, since I really learned nothing about the game. I've completed 2 on here, one was a total fail, the other was where I developed my style and learned a whole bunch about the game. So yeah, I'm actually not all that experienced, I just learned a whole bunch from the one game.

And yeah, I also don't like the vanilla claim, especially when in the previous paragraph he says anyone could say the same thing, which is true. A Cop or Doc claim is better D1, because if you make it through it could trick the mafia, make them kill a VT because they buy the claim, and it would be a stupid move for the actual cop or doc to counterclaim this early, so it's not like it would immediately be proven false.

[Coach Travis]

EBWOP: Obviously I meant the cop or doc claim is good if it's fake, just for clarification.

[reluctant]

I think the vote count for scapegoat is now at L-1 with me, Aranneas, Thor and Coach Travis voting.

[reluctant]

I forgot to UNVOTE: Scapegoat to escape L-1 ness. It's been a long day already.

[Aranneas]

I forgot to UNVOTE: Scapegoat to escape L-1 ness. It's been a long day already.

At least I'm not alone.

It's 5 to lynch, rel. We only had three votes on him.

[Aranneas]

I forgot to UNVOTE: Scapegoat to escape L-1 ness. It's been a long day already.

At least I'm not alone.

It's 5 to lynch, rel. We only had three votes on him.

*facepalms*

I'ma just go sleep for a couple of days and come back when my math brain is working. 'kay?

[Thor665]

Things are looking interesting, here;s where I roughly stand on the players;

Anton - Slight scum vibe off of opportunism feeling from posts. Not much to read here.
Mrs Sak - As noted earlier, most likely town.
Aranneas - Want him to be town, generally think he is.
scapegoat - The uber early claim and oddness of his opinion on scumhunting makes me suspicious of him. Also, his vote onto reluctant seems the most suspicious.
reluctant - I'm going town here now. The scapegoat unvote feels a little forced, but his other play while under suspicion feels town.
DukeJupiter - five will get you twenty, I bet this player is going to replace out.
Coach Travis - is playing follow the IC a bit much for my taste. I don't feel he's applying his own thoughts. I'm not sure if it's scummy unapplication or no.
willows_weep - Is fencesitting, trying to keep to the middle on issues is scummy, overall scummy read.

I'd like to hear more from Anton and Jupiter - especially Anton.

[Thor665]

Also, as a basic strategy note, I'll comment that the list above would annoy/upset some players - the belief being that it's dangerous to comment on who you think is most town because that will make scum's job of picking who to kill at night easier.

I personally disagree with this because of the simple axiom another player once noted to me; 'If you don't think scum know who the most townie players are, you're stupid' ...this player was a little ruder then I tend to play, but then so are most players. The heart of the idea holds true though, and consequently I feel comfortable saying i have town reads on people just as much as I note scum ones.

[Thor665]

Request Prod: Anton

By my (questionable) math calculations he hasn't posted in over 80 hours.

Jupiter is pretty close as well, and considering the nature of his last post I'd like to have him prodded since my money is on him being a flake out at this stage.

I am pretty content with the reluctant lynch as currently stands, and I would be willing to consider the Anton lynch. I prefer the reluctant one because with his claim he's either scum or is already narrowing down scum's kill options and is pretty good to get rid of either way in my opinion.

@Everyone else - I understand that with the multiple lurkers this game it's bogging down and your initial reaction is to wait for some "action" to respond to. I certainly encourage you to at least comment on my above lynch preference list as that will not only give us something to talk about but theoretically you should have an opinion about my attitude in this regard.

We've still got a lot of official game time left in the day, but if we aren't going to use it then all it will serve is as an anchor around our necks. I'd rather have a week of solid discussion and a lynch right then, then about three weeks of 'meh' discussion with a muddled into lynch because of deadline.