Newbie 991 - Newbieville! (Game Over)

[xRECKONERx]

In case I didn't say it already, your mod will be largely V/LA for the Caffwagon meetup. I'll try to check in occasionally to see if lynch has been reached.

[Cirno]

@Travis: Can you give me a summary as to why you believe that EarthIntruder is the single best lynch at this point in time?
@EarthIntruder: Gonna change your vote? From my recollection it is still on Thor.

and you have your usual sense of absolute assurance you're right

Though not all of my reads are off, amirite

Thus far you have established that you disagree with my scumtells - this is not an earth shattering revelation in the game of Mafia. What have you actually deduced?

Er... why are you so upset that I asked you to give a read on a player you hadn't given a read on yet?

Also, you changed your mind on EarthIntruder, so presumably your preferred lynch is Coach Travis?

[Coach Travis]

@Cirno:To sum up my case on EarthIntruder:

-The whole thing about following was pretty weak, seemed like he was giving me a free pas while accusing willows_weep of doing it. He eventually admitted his mistake, but I feel if it actually gets to the point you need to admit you messed up, it's not a good sign.
-His case on Thor was weak, even outside of the one thing mentioned above. Again, he admits his arguments are weak. yet still keeps his vote on Thor. This seemed like him using the excuse that Thor's more experienced as a reason for not being able to make a convincing case, and seems to me like he's scum slowly backing off once he knows that plan won't work, instead of finding more evidence and pressing more. This is somewhat scummy, because right it seems he's keeping vote just for the sake of having one, which isn't townish at all.

He hasn't been as bad lately, but a lot my suspicion is also on scapegoat, who seemed scummy with every post he made.

[reluctant]

@zipper, @cirno, @seth
In this post I review the voting patterns on the reluctant BW and the scapegoat/EI BW. Can one of you explain to me why the voting pattern indicates CT more than ever-lately-absent Aran? Or is it the seeming in game coaching (see what I did there) that Thor has given CT that makes you suspect him more?

[Thor665]

and you have your usual sense of absolute assurance you're right

Though not all of my reads are off, amirite

Thus far you have established that you disagree with my scumtells - this is not an earth shattering revelation in the game of Mafia. What have you actually deduced?

Er... why are you so upset that I asked you to give a read on a player you hadn't given a read on yet?

Also, you changed your mind on EarthIntruder, so presumably your preferred lynch is Coach Travis?

I'm actually not upset. Even if I was/wasn't upset you're missing the thrust of the joke/anger comment since it was directed at your commentary on the seth case I made and not on you asking me my opinion about you.

You also actually didn't answer my question. It's quoted above. 2nd line of my post. Please answer.

I'm conflicted on Travis, but consider him a viable lynch today. I'm also considering willows/fleshzipper and Anton/Sunday as well as seth. Travis is currently probably the best info lynch, but buddying is an awfully weak tell to actually lynch someone on Day 1 that I'd love to have a serious lynch talk about someone else - the problem is most of their cases look about the same and/or are lurking cases which isn't much better then buddying ones.

[Thor665]

@Everyone - Actually, as a serious question in connection with the last thought of my last post - why has nobody noticed any buddying coaching that

isn't

connected to my slot? I want that considered as everyone makes these claims as viable lynch reasons.

[Sundy]

Alrighty. That took forever. There's quite a lot of content in this game, nice job peoples. This is mostly stream-of-consciousness as I read through the thread, though I have gone back here and there to add some comments as I've seen how the game developed. One bad thing about replacing in is having to see other players make the same points you would make; one good thing about replacing in is seeing other players confirm your suspicions.

The first post that pings me. First Thor posts the typical "I'm governed by IC rules!," and then his second post for why Scapegoat was

definitely not scum

didn't seem quite so squeaky clean. Add to wit (this observation upon finishing the thread), I notice that Thor is the driving force behind both Scapegoat and Reluctant bandwagons, and does a tidbit of switching between the two. After this post pinged me, and I went on to finish the thread, I am very interested to see that the dynamic established in this post comes back into play during the rest of the game.

Reluctant does a FoS on Aranneas for no real reason. Then he proceeds to go back and forth, back and forth.

On one hand Aranneas is awfully active (I somewhere picked up the notion that scum tend to lurk more), but I don't find him productively so. On the other hand Anton hasn't done anything, is he lurking or just LA? If pressed I would've probably put Aranneas as slightly more likely to be scum (maybe 30% as opposed to the normal 25%), but with a low enough confidence that I didn't see the point of switching my vote away from my original random vote.

He proceeds to horrifically twist Aran's argument, but continues to hedge:

I realize the irony of making a non-random vote for someone declaring RVS to be over. I'll just note that while I feel Aranneas to be the most scummy I am far from convinced that he is scum.

One other interesting point he made in this post:

Another note, as an aside, both with Aranneas and Thor665's vote I found that my first knee jerk reaction was to OMGUS vote back.

But at this time, only Thor had voted for him. Aran's vote was on Scapegoat. I don't know why Reluctant thought the vote was on him (quite justifiably, Aran put it there afterwards), but this makes me highly suspicious of Reluctant and slightly suspicious of Scapegoat. But that would be an enormous-- and fortuitous-- scumslip.

Oh, and when Aran called him out on his vote, he continued to hedge:

I'd also like to note that I'm not attempting to over-vilify your actions.

I'll also say (yay tunnel) that I don't like Reluctant not voting because he's worried about appearing to OMGUS. Maybe I misunderstand the concept of OMGUS, but personally I don't think it's that bad of a reason to vote for someone. If someone votes me and I know I'm good, then that makes me think they're not following townie logic, and that makes me suspicious. I don't like Reluctant being reluctant to vote because of how it might appear to others-- transparency will better serve town, imo.

Aaaaaand then, Scapegoat comes out swinging with three suspicious posts, before striking AGAIN. I can't tell what he's thinking in the first three posts, as he goes to having no real reason to hoping for a confession. By the end of his run, he's smelling Mafia, before he brands himself as looking scummy.

Mrs Sak also caught my attention here.

This quote:

no, aranneas is right, I played and hosted multiple games like this, but with communication allowed.
in any case, the coincidence makes it that I played a game with almost the exact setup like this one, and I was a scum.

So she denies the interpretation of her behavior that leads to her being townie (Coach Travis & Thor), and instead goes with Aranneas, who calls her "suspiciously defeatist." An interesting choice... And my thoughts after finishing the thread are that:
1) Interesting that her replacement also chose to deny the path that cleared her
2) Mrs Sak denied Thor's interpretation wherein he so happily cleared her (wrong, imo)

And OK, Scapegoat claims VT.

I read in another game I played that those who claim VT should be lynched, because it lessens the chance of a power role being killed in case we hit another random townie this lynch, and then scum know not to target Scapegoat. Now I personally found this argument rather cold-hearted, but I'd heard it before...

OK Aranneas and Thor are making this argument too. Hmmmmmm, well that person's hammers of VTs almost lost us the game before, so I guess no policy lynch for Scapegoat.

Here's another discomforting post from Reluctant, where he says he'd lynch himself. He's suspicious of Thor and Anton, and I'm not at all clear as to why he dropped his Aran suspicions.

I do like EI's entrance, and I doubt I'd be that suspicious of him if it weren't for my suspicions of Scapegoat. I think he has interesting reads on Thor/Cirno at the bottom of this post, but his read of Reluctant seems fence-sitting to me, partly because I'm leaning towards a Reluctant/EI scum-team. And then the subsequent interaction between them is off in my mind. I wonder if Reluctant went aggressive for WIFOM purposes, which took EI by surprise.

And despite these suspicions, I

completely

agree with EI here. I was quite surprised to see Thor begin to claim that everyone was only bandwagoning Reluctant because of his RVS vote. First off, it seems a bit... self-impressed to me. And also wrong. Reluctant was way suspicious. And not because of Thor. Secondly, Thor's vote for Reluctant (unlike his Scapegoat vote) did not seem RVS to me.

In general, I am happy that EI is questioning Thor because (aside from Cirno later on) nobody had done so. And just because Thor is making lost of posts with some good arguments (scum can mix truth with lies) does not mean he is good, imo. After all, outside of this newbie forum, there's tons of games where very experienced players have at each other... I am sure that scum get quite good at masking themselves in a pro-town fashion.

Seth has a very unimpressive entrance into the game, which reminds me of Cirno's initial contributions. And oh wait, Cirno is the one to call him out! The irony. Don't like the "Thanks for giving me something to post, bro" line from Cirno. Seth's follow up post says he doesn't think that EI/Reluctant are both town, but also says he's not OK with either of them being lynched. Hrm...

I am curious as to why-- in follow up posts-- Cirno finds Seth townie after he admits to not looking into one of the most significant wagons of the game?? She comes swinging to his defense here, and I'm not sure why.

OK, glad to see Willow was replaced, I had a really hard time understanding his/her posts for some reason.

And unfortunately I agree with Thor as opposed to Seth/Cirno re: his recommending that I be lynched, based on other posts Thor has made in the game. However, I agree with Cirno on the other stuff, Thor is clearing players all too fast imo. And I gotta say, I either like the way that Cirno is demanding that Thor reassess her, or I think she is WIFOMing.

My top 3 suspects are:
1) Reluctant (far and away)
2) Thor
3) Scapegoat/EI

There is most definitely scum in that list. I haven't yet put so much thought into how various scum-teams could be functioning (just basing this off individual player reads), but I'll get to that later once the pieces start coming together.

OMG that took so long!

[Sundy]

And... I forgot to vote.

!!! RELUCTANT HAS NO VOTES ON HIM? Craziness.

VOTE: Reluctant

[Sundy]

scapegoat (3): Thor665, Coach Travis, Aranneas
Thor665 (1): EarthIntruder
Coach Travis (2): seth, Cirno

Not voting (3): Anton, willows_weep, reluctant

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch. Replacing Anton.

Hey mod, I'm a little confused by this vote-count. Scapegoat and EI are both listed, though they are the same player. What's going on here?

[EarthIntruder]

Whoa, Sundy is here, too? Haha, awesome.

[Cirno]

Hey mod, I'm a little confused by this vote-count. Scapegoat and EI are both listed, though they are the same player. What's going on here?

The votes on scapegoat were made before EarthIntruder replaced in and Reckoner didn't replace scapegoat's name with EarthIntruder. The votes still add up right.

Coach Travis (3) - seth, Cirno, zipperflesh
EarthIntruder (2) - Coach Travis, Aranneas
Thor665 (1) - EarthIntruder
The reluctant (1) - Sundy

Not Voting (2) - Thor665, reluctant

[Thor665]

First Thor posts the typical "I'm governed by IC rules!," and then his second post for why Scapegoat was

definitely not scum

didn't seem quite so squeaky clean.

??? My second post was a vote for scapegoat - I didn't claim him to either be scum nor to be town, I claimed him as a bandwagon.

Maybe I misunderstand the concept of OMGUS, but personally I don't think it's that bad of a reason to vote for someone. If someone votes me and I know I'm good, then that makes me think they're not following townie logic, and that makes me suspicious.

Voting someone simply because they're voting you isn't generally smart play - look at their reasons for voting you, is there a logic to it at all? Town can (and will) pick up on and call stuff scummy that you do while playing town - it's your job to decide whether they are voting you as town or as scum - OMGUS is poor play.

And unfortunately I agree with Thor as opposed to Seth/Cirno re: his recommending that I be lynched, based on other posts Thor has made in the game.[/quote]
Two questions here;

1. Which points have I made that you agree with as far as lynching you?
2. "Here's another discomforting post from

Reluctant

Sunday, where he says he'd lynch himself" <--- thoughts on this as regards quote above

@Cirno

You also actually didn't answer my question. It's quoted above. 2nd line of my post. Please answer.

If you're not intending to answer, at least say that (and maybe add why if it's not too much difficulty)

[Thor665]

@seth (as promised) - I won't go into it too much just yet (As I'm still getting the read), but I will point out - I presume you can see how my comments generated something for us to consider as regards Sunday. He's reacted to the pressure I put on him, and did so in a way we can now question. If you're still in the dark let me know and I'll try to clarify more.

[reluctant]

Great post Sundy.

Here's another discomforting post from Reluctant, where he says he'd lynch himself. He's suspicious of Thor and Anton, and I'm not at all clear as to why he dropped his Aran suspicions.

I'm a newb, this is my first game, so I'm very much learning as I go. Do you mirror the opinion of everyone else who chimed in that it is better for a town to allow a no lynch rather than lynch themselves? I dropped my Aran suspicions because they were pretty weak to begin with (as I mentioned a few times), and I felt like his actions afterward were town-like. I would certainly like to hear more from him now.

So she denies the interpretation of her behavior that leads to her being townie (Coach Travis & Thor), and instead goes with Aranneas, who calls her "suspiciously defeatist." An interesting choice... And my thoughts after finishing the thread are that:
1) Interesting that her replacement also chose to deny the path that cleared her
2) Mrs Sak denied Thor's interpretation wherein he so happily cleared her (wrong, imo)

I don't think I understood this, could you clarify? How could her replacement deny or confirm her previous playing style?

!!! RELUCTANT HAS NO VOTES ON HIM? Craziness.

Everyone jumped ship when Thor did. Does that strike you as Thor being scummy, or those who jumped with him as scummy? The only one who had mentioned a Thor & Reluctant scum team is Thor. Do you see that as likely? More likely than a reluctant & scapegoat/EI team or Thor & CT?

What are your thoughts on the CT bandwagon? How about how it would compare with a potential Aranneas bandwagon?

[Cirno]

@Thor: You need to have patience.

Thus far you have established that you disagree with my scumtells - this is not an earth shattering revelation in the game of Mafia.

You will very rarely make an 'earth shattering revelation' in mafia. What is important is pursuing your suspicions and questioning the other players. If I want to ask a question, I will ask it regardless of how valuable Thor665 thinks the question is.

What have you actually deduced?

The conclusion I came to was that you probably listed "process of elimination" simply to increase the number of reasons you had to suspect seth. You've shown that you disregarded at least one player's behavior entirely, and so I don't believe that you actually went through a process of elimination. Perhaps your definition of 'process of elimination' is softer than mine.

I think your initial reasons for suspecting seth were either complete nonsense or were entirely gut based and padded with nonsense reasons. While I am not inclined to vote you at the moment, I am less inclined to trust you in this game.

[Thor665]

@Cirno - which player?

[Cirno]

Can one of you explain to me why the voting pattern indicates CT more than ever-lately-absent Aran? Or is it the seeming in game coaching (see what I did there) that Thor has given CT that makes you suspect him more?

My suspicions of Coach Travis are gut based and the voting pattern is only a supplement to that. I don't care about the 'coaching'.

Also, I think you should address that question to

all

of us rather than

one

of us. We do not speak for one another.

@Cirno - which player?

...You are trolling me, right?

[Thor665]

No, I thought you were trolling me.

[Cirno]

In the line "You've shown that you disregarded at least one player's behavior entirely" the "one player" is referring to Cirno.

[Thor665]

I made an entire post discussing why I cleared you, at your request.
I've had many interactions with you.

How is this "ignoring you" and even if it is how does that, paired with what I've done listed above become suspect?

I'm legitimately puzzled - you seem to be angry at me for considering your slot (both players), not finding it scummy, and then scumhunting elsewhere - I am boggled, madame.

[Thor665]

^^^

Frankly I thought you were going to say willows_weep - if I was going to accuse myself of "ignoring" any slot that would be the one I'd pick (I'd still disagree, natch)

[EarthIntruder]

Okay, so, I apologize about not posting much in the past few days. RA training has just started for me, and classes are gonna be after that, so I'm going to have a lot more work than I have previously, and won't be able to post as much, but I promise to try to get in at least one per day.

This seemed like him using the excuse that Thor's more experienced as a reason for not being able to make a convincing case, and seems to me like he's scum slowly backing off once he knows that plan won't work, instead of finding more evidence and pressing more.

Would I even bother going after the most experienced player here at all if I were scum? I'm not that dumb. I backed off my case because I had no support and Thor was defending himself really well. I'm not going to push a case on someone that's never going to go anywhere, that's not helping town. I still have suspicions on him.

why not lynch him now?

how does him catching up affect your vote

You're not really going to go after Thor on this, are you?

so after he catches up your one vote will be able to lynch him?

you're going to ignore all the 'evidence' that anton gave you?

him catching up shouldn't affect you pushing him. it sounds like you're getting very close to setting up lynches which I don't like.

Iiiii guess so. I don't really see why you thought this was worth calling out, but you continued to push this for a page.
Looking at most of seth's responses to pressure, I'm really not liking how you're reacting. Your not posting much when you first replaced in was just a null read, but now I'm not so sure about it. Your post 205 and 216 seem like a bit of an overreaction to Thor's suspicion on you. You're only number three on his list, and he's not the first person that's suspected you, anyway, why jump to immediately thinking that Thor is sure you're scum?

Looking back, I don't really buy your reasoning and you're probably scum too.

Feels a little OMGUS-y, and was followed by that attack on Thor that I already mentioned was weak. You're also not the first person to make a case on Thor - that was really all you could come up with to attack him?

VOTE: seth

Reluctant, you said that Thor was your second choice, albeit a weak one. What do you think of some of the recent interaction between Thor and seth?

[EarthIntruder]

Bah, quote fuck-up.

[Cirno]

I made an entire post discussing why I cleared you, at your request.
I've had many interactions with you.

How is this "ignoring you" and even if it is how does that, paired with what I've done listed above become suspect?

I'm legitimately puzzled - you seem to be angry at me for considering your slot (both players), not finding it scummy, and then scumhunting elsewhere - I am boggled, madame.

I'd like to remind you that that post came much later and had to be dragged out of you.

You cleared the slot based on a 10 day old opinion on a player with 6 posts. You specifically said that your read was based on the behavior of Mrs Sak. You specifically said you had no problem with basing your read solely on Mrs Sak. If you took Cirno's behavior into consideration at the time of the process of elimination,
1.Why make such claims?
2.Why did you claim that you had previously explained why the slot was cleared, and point to a post regarding Mrs Sak as that explanation?

[Cirno]

@EarthIntruder: Am I to understand that your vote on seth is based purely on the belief that he is overreacting? If not, can you summarize your suspicions?