Newbie 991 - Newbieville! (Game Over)

[Sundy]

I've really got no answer on the cleared/town read thing. Probably I started using 'cleared' there because Cirno did.

Hmm... you seemed to be making a bigger deal about the difference between the two concepts here:

I'll also note there's a BIG difference between me calling them town and saying I don't want them lynched today and me calling them cleared. Town reads, like scum reads, are mutable.

~~~~~

I mentally combined you with EI who was arguing that I never led anything and feel you were attaching yourself to EI's logic.

"And despite these suspicions, I completely agree with EI here. I was quite surprised to see Thor begin to claim that everyone was only bandwagoning Reluctant because of his RVS vote. First off, it seems a bit... self-impressed to me. And also wrong. Reluctant was way suspicious. And not because of Thor. Secondly, Thor's vote for Reluctant (unlike his Scapegoat vote) did not seem RVS to me. "

You also wondered why the Reluctant wagon fell apart after I left it.

I don't disagree that you're influencing the town. In the very beginning of my first post I said:

I notice that Thor is the driving force behind both Scapegoat and Reluctant bandwagons.

In my ISO #5 I suggested that you also created the third wagon of the game. What I disagreed with was that people only voted Reluctant because of you, and that was the only reason for the bandwagon. People followed the bandwagon because you had the beginning of a plausible case. It was

not

because of an RVS vote, as you state. As I have already said, your vote on Reluctant was not RVS-- it is making accurate observations about suspicious play, which is then corroborated by opinions from other players. I don't think my thinking is muddy here.

And now I'm going back to look at the way you switched from Reluctant to Scapegoat... some posts stand out to me.

This reaction, after Travis voted Reluctant:

I'll also add, for the newbies, that Coach Travis just gave us an example of an excellent post. He's commenting on multiple players, he's letting us know what he's thinking, and he's scumhunting via the addition of a vote (he could have also asked questions or done some other scumhunting thing, of course). It's a pretty solid example of how to do a good post (the length has nothing to do with it, just in case any of you prefer making smaller posts - the value is in the opinions and standpoints made, and the scumhunting work)

How did you all of a sudden decide later on that this "excellent post" was just following you, and there really was no case on Reluctant?

Another question about the bandwagon switch:

It was:

reluctant (4): Thor665, Aranneas, Coach Travis, scapegoat
Aranneas (1): Mrs Sak
scapegoat (1): reluctant

Coach Travis changed his vote 1 post later, and so did Aranneas about 5 posts later.

And then afterwards, you do another set of reads and find that Coach Travis is following the IC, but you generally think that Aranneas is town. What was it about their behavior that seemed different to you, and led you to ignore Aranneas on the way to your third bandwagon?

I went looking for an answer:

I've already explained in thread why I eliminate Cirno, reluctant, and Arranneas.

ISO #3 you said he wasn't scum-hunting
ISO #6 you said you were surprised scapegoat could only vote him because of OMGUS
ISO #20 you said Scapegoat did an odd dance with him
ISO #22 "Want him to be town, generally think he is"
ISO #29 "My read there is town"
ISO #62

I've already explained in thread why I eliminate Cirno, reluctant, and Arranneas

So you said:

how would you feel about a player who had a scum read on someone suddenly saying they have a town read? They would need to be able to point out the progression of their thoughts and their logic - wouldn't they?

Shifts within reads are both equally scummy/not scummy regardless of which way the shift is going - you need to be able to explain shifts.

Can you explain why you seemed to shift, if you did? Or point to the post where you explained in thread why you eliminated Arranneas?

[Thor665]

How did I shift on Arraneas? To use the list you provided;

ISO #3 you said he wasn't scum-hunting (this might be interpreted as me calling him scummy - I submit it's more me trying to get a read on him)
ISO #6 you said you were surprised scapegoat could only vote him because of OMGUS (this is me being suspicious of someone for how they are acting towards Arraneas - it's not a read on Arraneas except insomuch as maybe I don't consider him scapegoat's buddy)
ISO #20 you said Scapegoat did an odd dance with him (a read on scapegoat, same as above, probably if I suspect scapegoat I am less likely to suspect targets he has)
ISO #22 "Want him to be town, generally think he is" (call him town)
ISO #29 "My read there is town" (call him town)
ISO #62 I've already explained in thread why I eliminate Cirno, reluctant, and Arranneas (because I've called him town - though I'll admit I didn't make a case on it as I did with the other two)

Where's the shift exactly? You say I "seemed to shift" between/during what posts do you feel this shift happened?

RE: reluctant bandwagon shift and suspecting Travis and not Arraneas: I didn't like the wagon - I shifted away from it, I considered Travis to be following me and suspected him and not Arraneas because I had a town read on Arraneas so I didn't suspect him. As I asked Cirno earlier - why is it strange that I wouldn't suspect and scumhunt someone I had a town read on?

As far as my pointing out why I had a muddied read on your beliefs as to my bandwagon leading - I did so. I don't care to debate about your actual intent with what you said since I'm not making a case on the point.

Hmm... you seemed to be making a bigger deal about the difference between the two concepts here:

What exactly do you find scummy here again? I think I've lost the train of thought. I was clarifying between two thoughts that I believed you were either misunderstanding/misrepresenting.

[Sundy]

How did I shift on Arraneas? To use the list you provided;

ISO #3 you said he wasn't scum-hunting (this might be interpreted as me calling him scummy - I submit it's more me trying to get a read on him)
ISO #6 you said you were surprised scapegoat could only vote him because of OMGUS (this is me being suspicious of someone for how they are acting towards Arraneas - it's not a read on Arraneas except insomuch as maybe I don't consider him scapegoat's buddy)
ISO #20 you said Scapegoat did an odd dance with him (a read on scapegoat, same as above, probably if I suspect scapegoat I am less likely to suspect targets he has)
ISO #22 "Want him to be town, generally think he is" (call him town)
ISO #29 "My read there is town" (call him town)
ISO #62 I've already explained in thread why I eliminate Cirno, reluctant, and Arranneas (because I've called him town - though I'll admit I didn't make a case on it as I did with the other two)

Where's the shift exactly? You say I "seemed to shift" between/during what posts do you feel this shift happened?

I would have said between ISO #20 and #22, but your explanation may clarify my read... ISO #3 implies slight suspicion, since not scum-hunting is either anti-town or pro-scum. #6 I read as Scapegoat picking a bad reason to vote for Arraneas, as if there were others, and I read #20 "dance" as something mutual, but the way you explain it makes sense.

But just because you call him town doesn't explain why you thought he was town.

And as fun as this day was I'm disappointed to only see myself and Thor posting, with only a zipperflash. But I guess we all need our V/LA.

[Thor665]

with only a zipperflash

Is intentional pun intentional?

I'm actually insulted he couldn't even fos me or something for wanting to lynch him. I'll just announce his quick duck in and soft sell on Arran for lurking as suspicious (when, y'know, zipperflesh is doing nothing of the sort, and also, y'know, when lurking isn't actually scummy) and further proof that I am brilliant and his wagon needs another vote or two.

[zipperflesh]

Why should I FoS you?

If lurking is so obvobv scummy, why do you get a town read on Aran?

[Thor665]

If lurking is so obvobv scummy, why do you get a town read on Aran?

lurking isn't actually scummy

Do you have any thoughts on anything that has happened *besides* a jab at Arran for lurking - I'm pretty sure some other stuff has gone on.

[zipperflesh]

If lurking is so obvobv scummy, why do you get a town read on Aran?

lurking isn't actually scummy

Do you have any thoughts on anything that has happened *besides* a jab at Arran for lurking - I'm pretty sure some other stuff has gone on.

Misunderstood the lurking part.

As of right, no. I'm content with my vote on Travis and what to see him hanged.

[reluctant]

I would not rather set myself on fire than vote Thor or Coach Travis. I tend to think Thor is more scummy than CT, but maybe our two tunnelers would actually contribute something useful if we lynched CT? I would prefer Thor, but weakly so. I haven't cleared anyone, but I think my overall preferences have switched a bit and I'm now thinking:

EI/Scapegoat <--- still think they are scum.
Cirno/Mrs Sak <--- I need to do another ISO read when I have more time, but something about Cirno just screams oddness to me. Maybe it is just switching between talking in first and third person?
Thor <--- I'm not sure what I learn if he ends up being scum? Who do we go after? CT, Aranneas?
Seth/DJ <--- tunneling pretty hardcore, not a fan of it, especially coming in late.
ZipperFlesh/WW <--- same story as above. ZipperFlesh seems to have more content in his posts though.
CT , Aranneas <--- both of these I still have mostly town reads on. Aranneas, can you post something, anything, please?
Anton/Sundy <--- I like Sundy's posts, I'm going w/ mostly town.

Would anyone rather set themselves on fire than vote Cirno, since a possible lynch on scapegoat/EarthIntruder seems to have lost steam?

[zipperflesh]

Why do you have a town read on CT & Aran?

[reluctant]

Why do you have a town read on CT & Aran?

I think CT's posts were really good, especially early on, and I've only gotten a town vibe from him. Almost all of his posts, though short, have good content. I understand the suspicion w/ the vote following, but Aranneas was doing it as well, and in my mind just as blatantly. If anything CT is slightly more suspect b/c of plausibility of the in game coaching going on between him and Thor. If CT is scum, I think it is likely that Thor is too b/c of that coaching, but I don't think it is necessarily likely that CT is. I also think that if it turns out that Thor is scummy it doesn't necessarily say anything about CT, does that make sense?

Aranneas, besides really early on, has seemed pretty townie to me. I would

really

like to see more from him right now.

What are you thoughts on Cirno? What are your thoughts about the super tunneling that you and Seth are engaged in? What makes that maneuver more town than scum, especially coming in late.

[zipperflesh]

I think Cirno has some good points, especially against Thor. I'm of the mind that CT is more likely the scum of the two though, so I'm keeping my vote on him.

I really don't think I'm tunneling that much, more like being consistent. I'm intrigued by the case on Thor, but if he's town then we've lost a valuable asset as IC. If CT flips scum, then I take a close look at Thor.

[Thor665]

@zipperflesh - what is your read on Arraneas and reluctant.

Also, specifically what points do you agree with Cirno on?

[seth]

I would not rather set myself on fire than vote Thor or Coach Travis

. I tend to think Thor is more scummy than CT, but maybe our two tunnelers would actually contribute something useful

if we lynched CT?

CT , Aranneas <--- both of these I still have mostly town reads on.

Aranneas, can you post something, anything, please?

Yay for contradictions

[zipperflesh]

I would not rather set myself on fire than vote Thor or Coach Travis

. I tend to think Thor is more scummy than CT, but maybe our two tunnelers would actually contribute something useful

if we lynched CT?

CT , Aranneas <--- both of these I still have mostly town reads on.

Aranneas, can you post something, anything, please?

Yay for contradictions

I think you misunderstood.

[seth]

Why would he not care about lynching someone who he has a town read on?

[zipperflesh]

@zipperflesh - what is your read on Arraneas and reluctant.

Also, specifically what points do you agree with Cirno on?

I've already stated that I find Aran's lurkiness suspicious.

I've got a town read on reluctant due to the speed of the wagon on him.

I like Cirno's post #322

[zipperflesh]

Why would he not care about lynching someone who he has a town read on?

Perhaps I misunderstood, but I thought he saying he didn't want to lynch either. Just that if one or the other was lynched, then me and you would contribute more.

[seth]

I would not rather set myself on fire than vote Thor or Coach Travis

That seems like the opposite of:

I would rather set myself on fire than vote Thor or CT

[Thor665]

I've already stated that I find Aran's lurkiness suspicious.

In general, how is lurking suspicious?
And specifically how is his lurking suspicious?
Do you think you have lurked this game or not?

I like Cirno's post #322

This is the post where she explains she's voting for Travis for gut and 'voting patterns' (the scumminess of the patterns is not explained).
Says she doesn't worry about connections with lynches.
Thinks me voting you is scummy.

Since you thought she had good points "especially against Thor" that means that really what you're excited about is no part of her issue with me other then the fact I'm voting you, yes?

Why haven't you listed issues with how I'm voting you? Why just stand behind Cirno?

[reluctant]

I would not rather set myself on fire than vote Thor or Coach Travis

. I tend to think Thor is more scummy than CT, but maybe our two tunnelers would actually contribute something useful

if we lynched CT?

CT , Aranneas <--- both of these I still have mostly town reads on.

Aranneas, can you post something, anything, please?

Yay for contradictions

No contradictions. I mean, setting myself on fire? I'd rather do many other things than set myself on fire. I have a mostly town read on CT, therefore I would prefer to vote Thor out of the two. If we did lynch CT instead, maybe it would lead certain others to be more useful, which makes me more willing to lynch him than Aranneas, though I have about the same read on the two.

[seth]

So you are willing to lynch someone who you think is town on the offchance that two lurkers who ( FYPOV; assuming 'not a fan of' = scum) are likely scum will contribute more?
Is that more or less it?

I'm down for a reluctant/thor/CT BW

[Cirno]

Sup, bros? Nothin'? Chillin'? Me, too. Just checking in since I haven't posted in a day or two. Some of you don't like our two wagons. That's fine and all, but the closer we get to deadline the more likely people are to hop on either wagon with no reason other than 'deadline'. I think many of you are wasting time, so I'm going to make a suggestion. Let's convince each other to see things our way rather than waiting for deadline so that we are forced onto a wagon we don't believe in.

Pic related. It's me chillin'.

[zipperflesh]

In general, how is lurking suspicious?
And specifically how is his lurking suspicious?
Do you think you have lurked this game or not?

It's suspicious because scum can hide in the shadows while two townies fight it out.

Were coming down to the deadline. A person's votes and opinions are most important in this phase, IMO. Aran is not providing us anything to work with in the coming days by skipping out on the conversation.

Willow weeps lurked, I can't help that. Had I been playing against him I would have called him on it... I, on the other hand, do not think I've been lurking. Do you?

[quoute=Thor]
This is the post where she explains she's voting for Travis for gut and 'voting patterns' (the scumminess of the patterns is not explained).
Says she doesn't worry about connections with lynches.
Thinks me voting you is scummy.

Since you thought she had good points "especially against Thor" that means that really what you're excited about is no part of her issue with me other then the fact I'm voting you, yes?

Why haven't you listed issues with how I'm voting you? Why just stand behind Cirno?[/quote]

Cirno is doing a fine job, why should I say what has already been said? That's latching, no. Honestly, I think you're upset that I didn't OMGUS you back when you attacked me. That would have certainly helped your campaign to get me lynched...

Do you really think I'm scum? Or are you just trying to save CT?

[reluctant]

So you are willing to lynch someone who you think is town on the offchance that two lurkers who ( FYPOV; assuming 'not a fan of' = scum) are likely scum will contribute more?
Is that more or less it?

If by willing you mean more willing than to set myself on fire, that is what I said. I would prefer Thor b/c I think it is more likely that he is scum. I was, however, asked about Thor & CT. I don't know if you and zipper are scum or not, I can't tell either way by you (especially your) & zipper's posts, b/c they have almost no content. I hope that if CT is lynched you two would contribute more, yes. Deadline is coming up, as I've said multiple times we need a lynch of some sort. My preferences are clear (I hope). Any questions?

[Coach Travis]

I don't think Aran is suspicious. In fact, I wouldn't even call it lurking at this point, it's a total disappearance. lurking would mean he'd post once every 3 days just to avoid being prodded. It's been almost a week now. I'll admit the way it happened was strange:He seemed to be back from vacation only to not post again, but it's more likely something unexpected come up and he may need to be replaced, than him just lurking. Basically, it's completely null. Seth's active lurking is far worse, because he's constantly around, and yet I've still seen barely anything interesting from him.

Also, since at least some of us like the idea of finding townies so we get things narrowed down: I'm really liking Reluctant lately, he's been pretty much consistent the whole game, and I feel he's very honest in how he's answering questions, and giving his reads. I'd be very shocked if he was scum, and am almost certain he's town. Even his willingness to get me lynched is fine, because everyone knows catching scum day 1 is tough, so going with what you think is the best information lynch isn't exactly scummy.