NY 120: Flash mafia 2. GAME OVER

[Fishythefish]

/confirm

[Fishythefish]

vote: RichardGHP

for abdicating responsibility.

[Fishythefish]

RVS speculation that I can't justify but am willing to throw around anyways because I feel the need to.
Poro is intentionally avoiding the growing Rich wagon
Timing of vollkan's vote + need to justify it with some other reason other than "LOL WAGON"

just both come off as scummy

unvote, vote: Parama

Parama gives reasons here, but in the first and last lines he's trying to distance himself from them. It's like he doesn't want to be found scummy for a weak case.

[Fishythefish]

Sure.
The logic is incredibly weak but it's still strong enough for me to not want to random vote.
Problem is that Poro's most recent post is worse than his RVS post. He should be voting me IMO.

My problem isn't with you casting a weak RVS vote. Anything is better than nothing early in the game. My problem is with you undermining your own reasoning by admitting that you were virtually voting off nothing. That really weakens the effect of any vote, and just looks like a way to avoid taking responsibility for your own semi-serious vote.

[Fishythefish]

@Espeonage: what were your reasons for your volkan vote? What are your reasons for your Parama vote?

[Fishythefish]

@Espeonage: in you RVS theory post, you seem to feel strongly that providing reasons for votes is a good thing. Why aren't you giving reasons for yours?

[Fishythefish]

OK.

unvote, vote: UT

So I was reading back through the RVS stuff, thinking maybe Parama was a weak end-of-RVS suspect. Then I read this

VOTE: Vollkan

Because?

You tell me.

Wat. I cannot, for the life of me, figure out what the purpose to that was.

vote Espeonage

then vote for Parama when voll votes you? I DON'T UNDERSTAND WHAT YOU ARE TRYING TO ACCOMPLISH HERRE

This really doesn't read to me like he thinks Espeonage is scum. Confusing play is simply not a scumtell in the RVS, and to treat it as such isn't something I'd expect from town.

[Fishythefish]

EBWOP: my "OK." was to Espeonage.

[Fishythefish]

@Espe: If you have seen a playstyle-related scumtell that you'd like to see a few more times to make it more convincing, that's reasonable. If you have just seen a scumtell, and want to add unrelated things to your case before you publish it, then you are just deliberately going down the road of confirmation bias. I think you should be very wary of a case that makes you think "X is scum, but it's not convincing enough to tell people yet" - it sounds exactly like a recipe for unreasonable tunnelling.

[Fishythefish]

OK. The last sentence still applies; you should be careful about what happens if you

don't

see it again.

[Fishythefish]

@Richard: I would also like more explanations for your big list than "I read the players". I find it pretty difficult to believe you actually have on 8/12 players this early in the game which you think are worth publishing.

I don't see any problems in Espe's play. I can certainly imagine not revealing your case as a legitimate thing to do (although why we even know there is a case is not so clear to me).

[Fishythefish]

I'm kind of iffy on what your "I've vote for some people with no reasoning!" thing accomplished, Espeonage. Let's hear your "secret reads".

OK.
This really doesn't read to me like he thinks Espeonage is scum. Confusing play is simply not a scumtell in the RVS, and to treat it as such isn't something I'd expect from town.

He said pretty specifically that it wasn't RVS votes. You're reaching.

Not at all. I'm not remotely criticising you for disliking random votes. I'm criticising you for equating confusing play with scum play. I'm not sure if this is ever true, and it's certainly not true early in the game (which is all I meant by RVS here).

Esp's secret reads have been

very

thoroughly discussed. Is all you have to add on the whole game really an almost unexplained call for Esp to do what he's already made it clear he's not doing?

@Oman: as soon as you have the time, an expansion on Esp would be very welcome.

@mbf: I disagree that having three votes on you at this stage is a good reason not to get lynched.

Are there any reasons for the Parama and Porochaz wagons?

[Fishythefish]

Also guys stop arguing. Town v town (As I am assuming this one is) arguments get town nowhere.

I find this pretty hard to believe; town reads on both volkan and RGHP at this stage just seem really unlikely.

More people need to comment on UT! I really think his reasoning for voting espy was poor, and his later dismissal of my point totally failed to address it.

@RGHP: iso 7 is a post that has been much quoted as an example of Espe's scumminess. Saying "Espe is scummy - particularly iso 7" does not amount to a case. Either say where else he is scummy, or explain why iso 7 is so awful and scumlike (why would scum do it would be a good start), or preferably both.

I just don't see why people think Espe is scum atm.

[Fishythefish]

@RGHP: why do you find word for word repetition of someone else scummy? It needs more explanation.

[Fishythefish]

@Parama: Unless I'm mistaken, it's been a long time since anyone said anything much about you. Yes, I voted for you (although tbh, I have no idea whether or not I remembered that when I asked about your wagon). It was on page 2, and it wasn't based off much. I wanted to hear what other people voting for you had to say about why they think you are scum.

[Fishythefish]

Poor weekend access; will make a decent post in perhaps 30 hours.

[Fishythefish]

Fishy: Do you still think I'm a valid wagon? If not, what has changed to make you think I'm not scum?

I don't think you're a good wagon (not sure what you mean by "valid"). You made a post I found slightly scummy in the RVS. Since then, you've done nothing further that gives me much of a read on you. I think that other wagons are better - UT, notably.

@UT: could you please make explicit which bits of that Espe iso make you suspect him. You seem to disagree at great length with his post which says "RVing bad, analysis good" - he may have gone a bit overboard with that, but I don't see how it's a scumtell. As for holding back his reads, I again don't see why it makes him likely scum. Your case says that Espe is antitown - I don't see anything in it that makes me think he's scum.

My point was that from your post I just didn't believe your scumread on Espe. You seem to find his play wrong or antitown, but I just can't see how what you've said adds up to "Espe is scum".

Do you think my response to your attacks on Espe are "weird" because your attacks are good, or just that defending another player is "weird"? As oj asked, does "weird" in this context mean "scummy"? Are you making an Espe-fishy link? If not, what does it mean?

unvote, vote untrod tripod

Deadline soon, and I have no idea who scum are. My gut tells me Esp is town, so I'll go for the second-highest wagon.

Deadline is not nearly soon enough for this attitude to be a good one. What do you think of anyone in the game? So far, this gut read on Espe is your only read.

I get a vibe from RGHP that he is much more interested in having something to say than actually figure out who is scum.
1. On Espe - he votes Espe, giving some pretty halfhearted analysis ("general scumminess", plus citing one post that other people had talked about). It conveyed the impression that he was pretty happy with the vote. I asked him for more details, and he didn't say anything.
2. A HoS on volkan with the justification that volkan was "metagaming" - no follow up of any kind.
3. On Prozac, for parroting - never explained why he found it scummy. Has now moved on.
@RGHP: what do you now think of Espe? Of volkan? Of Prozac? Why didn't you follow up on any of these suspicions?

[Fishythefish]

I need to get off my ass and work out who I'm happy to lynch today. This will happen in a few hours time. I find the pace of this game worrying - I've never seen a town drift slowly to a scum lynch.

[Fishythefish]

So. The Espeonage wagon is just bad. There's no good reason to think he's scum that I've seen, and I won't be voting for him today unless something changes drastically.

The Porochaz wagon is pretty tempting. I think that, quite similarly to UT, his reasons for suspecting Esp in 222 and previously really don't add up. He doesn't address what Esp has said about what he was doing, and it's completely unclear to me how he gets "Esp is scum" out of anything he's said. On Richard, I dislike how his reasoning changed. The view expressed in 222 I pretty much agree with -

You are right, it took me way too long to change my vote. I am finding currently better to make sure of what Im thinking before I jump in. MBF wasnt under pressure, although probably should be, there was no point in me changing, if he has a problem with it, then he can bring it up with me. The reason I'm voting him is because what he is doing is a crap shoot. He's picking holes in Kevlar and trying to run with it. When it doesnt work with one person he moves onto someone else. Its not fooling anyone.

but earlier, his reasons for voting RGHP were

Also I haven't changed my vote yet.

vote Richard

For not supplying the reasoning and being generally stubborn about it. I want to know why vollkan unvoted, I see no reason to on the basis of his defence.

That's really very different. Refusal to provide reasoning and stubborness has changed into hopping around and poor arguments. Looks like Poro went back over Richard to try and justify his vote.

I'm going to go ahead and

unvote, vote: Porochaz

A good wagon, and much, much better company than the one I'm on atm.

@Richard: please could you answer the questions posed in my last post

[Fishythefish]

Goddamn it I see what Ive done. Thanks fishy, I put my reasons for disliking esp instead of richard there, I got mixed up, fair enough with your votes.

To clarify - which of the two conflicting quotes on Richard was supposed to be about Esp?

[Fishythefish]

unvote

Tired, drunk, not ready for Poro to be at L-1 with his claim of misspeaking. Thoughts and vote for Poro/UT tomorrow.

[Fishythefish]

Actually, you know what?

VOTE: Luchris

[Fishythefish]

UT 3
Poro 3
Luchris 3
Espe 1

by my (very unofficial) count.

I'm not sure what my access situation is going to be for the next couple of days - I'm pretty sure I'll be on again before deadline (which I think is Saturday), but probably not for very long.

Prozac's claim is (correct me if I'm wrong) that the vote for RGHP was for reasons which weren't in the vote post - and indeed which were largely unstated at the time. The accompanying reasoning is actually why Prozac suspects

Espe

.

That fits, I believe it, and it makes me comfortable with Prozac's RGHP position.

That makes enough difference to me that Prozac isn't someone I want to lynch today. My remaining problem on him is his stance on Esp - I think his points against him are more "antitown" than "scummy".

Time to actually have a look at Luchris.

So, Luchris seems a decent lynch. He hasn't done anything much. Ythill points out some scumminesses - of these, the cognitive dissonance is minor for me (I'll let Luchris respond to it before saying why). The others tie together in the question "is Luchris tunnelled on UT?". It feels like Luchris has zero intention of voting for anyone other than UT today, but Ythill points out things in his play which don't really fit the picture of tunnelled town ("lack of linear assumptions" and "jabbing", which are sensible points).

The second quote in UT's 296 is misattributed - I said that.
@UT: you say "I felt he was playing more for his own personal survival than for a town win. On day 1 with relatively little to go with, this is worth a vote." In what way do you feel Espe was playing for his own personal survival?

I think right now I'm thinking Luchris>UT>Poro>Espe for the people with any chance of getting lynched.

[Fishythefish]

unvote, vote: UT

A decent lynch, and there's no other wagon I'd like to see succeed.

[Fishythefish]

VOTE: UT
UT's given a justification for what made Espe scummy now. It sucks. He says that Esp is thinking about his own survival rather than scumhunting, because

My issue with him is how he (I think) is trying to make us think he's more valuable than he actually is by loudly talking about his "secret reads" and how he's "playing better than we think he is".

I don't believe that read on Espe's play. I don't think you can look at Espe's "I'm not going to give my case yet" sequence and think he's trying to make us think he's got something so good we shouldn't lynch him (do go back and look at this for yourself). It's not at all plausible that scumEsp would think "I want to survive. How shall I survive? I know! I'll say I have some awesome scumtells on people, but won't say what they are!".

What else has UT done? Bugger all, really. His Espe iso was just scratching around to try and defend his vote - none of it is reasons why Espe is scum, and the whole iso doesn't really achieve anything. He called my attacks on him "weird", which he later said meant "illogical" but that he didn't want to turn things into ad hom. Illogical is a word that simply doesn't apply here - again, go and read what I'd said about UT and see if you agree with his interpretation.

Also, I think the voting patterns late yesterday point to UTscum. The RGHP wagon was oddly fast, and more generally we had a lot of moving around later yesterday, when we had a decent UT wagon throughout. I don't think that's something you see as often when all the big wagons (Poro, RGHP and hypothetically UT) are on town.

@Parama: why Luchris? Why Ythill? Why me?

[Fishythefish]

There is alot of wifom in Fishy's case. I will post a case when I'm not eating.

I don't understand what you mean at all. Could you please explain which bits of my case are wifom, and why that makes them invalid or wrong?

[Fishythefish]

@Parama: are you going to explain your scumreads?

Things to do: work out Oj vs. Ythill. I have no handle on it atm.

[Fishythefish]

Point 1: read/play on Espe. I felt Espe was very taken with his strategy. I felt that this had the potential to make him tunnel in an antitown way. I never felt that this was scummy (if anything, the opposite). So yeah, I was sort of coaching him, and there was literally no disapproval in my head (and hence my tone). I was definitely not "trying to make an attack". What's the problem here?

Point 2: Forgot Parama wagon. I explained this here, when you last made this point. You never responded to that, I believe.

Point 3: You're "what fishy meant" second quote is totally off. I said that I found Esp's town reads unlikely. That means that I couldn't see how anyone would have got a townread out of volkan's and RGHP's play so far (or one of them in particular - I can't recall which I meant). That's not calling either of them scum.

Point 4: I pushed a UT lynch for a while, and then suddenly said I needed better reads. Yep, that's true. Why is that scummy?

Point 5: Hop onto Porochaz. Er... yes? I looked at his wagon, and decided I liked it. So I voted for him. Have you got a problem with my reasons for doing that, other than that he had a wagon?

Point 6: Buddying to Espe. Where? I think some of the reasons for attacking Espe have been very bad and probably scum driven, and that's pretty much all I've said about him.

Point 7: Luchris/end of day. My initial vote for Luchris was done for no reason to speak of. I didn't want to have my vote on Poro, who had just said something of relevance, so I unvoted. I was about to go to bed, and I decided that I might as well leave my vote somewhere. Ythill (I'm pretty sure) had just called for a Luchris wagon, and that seemed like a good idea. That's ISO 21. In ISO 22, I actually looked at Luchris, and decided that actually it was a pretty decent place to have my vote. In ISO 23, my vote on Luchris was

the last one

, as you'd know if you'd remotely read any of this in context. Accordingly, I went back to UT, not liking any other potential lynch as much.

Point 8: I'm now not attacking Luchris. Meh. Luchris is still a bit of a suspect, but I've got nothing much to say on him right now. Looking at the game last night reinforced my scumread on UT, and he's my priority right now.

Point 9: I asked you "why Luchris?". There's absolutely no contradiction in me finding someone scummy and asking you why you are voting them. It's relevant to my read on them and to my read on you.

[Fishythefish]

Just a warning that my access this weekend will be relatively poor.

[Fishythefish]

Prod avoidance; content in 10 hours or so.

[Fishythefish]

@Ythill: you sounded pretty sure Oj was scum late yesterday - she was pretty clearly your number one suspect. I'm completely at a loss to see how she has fallen so far in your suspicions - your votecount analysis really doesn't look like it says enough for that. Your explanation - that day 1 reads are weak - doesn't explain why four people have overtaken Oj.

@Parama: do you have any response to my replies to you?

AFAIC Oman's scumminess comes largely from his deadline play - ie. doing nothing in an exciting deadline situation. It seems to me that this only really applies if UT is scum - otherwise, with rival townie wagons, scum had little incentive to do or not do anything late yesterday. So I'd be much happier with a UT lynch here.

[Fishythefish]

...You're acting like you think I cleared Oja or called her town, but I didn't. What concerns you about me turning my attention to others?

No, actually, I'm really not saying you cleared Oj. Ojanen dropped from first on you suspect list to 5th (or lower). That is a big drop. I don't see anything in what you've posted to justify that. I've got no problem in anything you've said on this - weak day 1 reads, confident tone overstating of suspicions, "reads given on a curve" are all fine. It's just that I don't see what has happened to change your scumread so radically.

Or, rather, I didn't. It's been quite a lot better explained since I made that post in the cases of mbf and Oman. I see where you're coming from on UT. I suppose the only one I'm questioning now is Seol, who simply isn't in the game.

As for your second sentence here, I think it should be pretty obvious that I am trying to work out your thought process and reads over time in order to see whether I believe them. I have no problem with the scumhunting you are currently doing.

Re: Oman's Richard vote. I think that at that time it's consistent with someone who thinks UT is town and has no read on Richard. If scum, I really can't see a motivation unless UT is scum. Can you explain further what in Oman's play you feel is "classic scum --> town behaviour"? It's not something that fits into any model I have of scum.

UT is either scum or has been groomed by thoughtful mafiosos to be the D2 mislynch.

One of these is way more common than the other.

@mbf: my reasons for thinking UT is scum are here.

@Luchris: other than "he's not here", what do you think about UT?

@mod: any news on Seol prod?

[Fishythefish]

@Oj: actually, you are right. Two votes in that wagon were predicted by prior reads (Oman thinks UT town; mbf thinks RGHP scum). I've got no problem with volkan's zigzagging around. So yeah, the speed of the RGHP wagon isn't all that compelling. It's more the way that a couple of people without any strong reads to speak of were just lined up so they could push against the UT wagon. Particularly mbf; that RGHP stance came out of nowhere when UT was in some danger, and is pretty much mbf's only commitment to date.

[Fishythefish]

Here's where I am on these links:

- mbfscum had more motivation to act the way he did if UT is scum. So I'd say mbfscum makes UTscum more likely, and vice versa.
- Omanscum had some motivation to act the way he did whether or not UT is scum. I don't think these two are convincingly linked (in either way).

I can see either of their play coming from scum trying to set up UT. In mbf's case, I think that's less likely than the simple buddies option, and in Oman's it's close between the two.

@Ythill: what do you mean by the "vote-grouping caveat"? Can't seem to find it in your posts.

[Fishythefish]

Deadline access issues:
As ever, poor weekend access - I'll probably check in, but don't expect much on Friday or Saturday. Sunday ok, but no access on Monday. Should be able to do something on Tuesday. So yeah, I'm afraid it's going to be another deadline semi-lurk from me.

@Luchris: please expand on your thoughts about Oman.

If I had to choose between mbf and Oman, right now it would be Oman. Mostly a gut thing. Both have done very little, but from mbf I get more of a vibe of genuinely not caring about the game, whereas Oman seems more active-lurky. The connections with UT (positive or negative) aren't a major factor for me here - I think it's pretty easy to concoct explanations for any combination, but without flips I don't think there's really enough evidence to draw any reasonably firm conclusions.

[Fishythefish]

Espeonage - you've done nothing today. Who's scum, and why? Why the recent lack of content?
Parama - I dislike the way you have virtually no stated opinion on anyone who looks in any danger of a lynch.

To anyone who is town: this game is not going well. We need more content from more people. Right now, the scum can happily hide among the lurkers and come in with deadline votes on any wagon without standing out in any way. Commit to opinions, with reasons - at least on the major suspects. If you don't have opinions, make them. If you don't, we will lose.

@mod

please replace Seol.

[Fishythefish]

EBWOP: I see myk is already replacing Seol. Hooray!

[Fishythefish]

That's L-1. I think Oman should claim at this point.

[Fishythefish]

Fishy were you asking a claim as in interested in hammering Oman?

Yep. It doesn't look like I'm getting a Tripod lynch, and Oman is my choice of the people who look like the might get lynched today.

[Fishythefish]

I can't see Oman being real. There's no way in hell you don't protect the PR here. That WIFOM logic really doesn't work when there's no guarantee of a protective role. Scum shoot at dangerous outed PRs.

I also see no protown reason for the mbf gambit, though the retraction helps a lot here.

However, happy to go with Ythill's request not to hammer.

[Fishythefish]

VOTE: UT
real post tomorrow.

[Fishythefish]

Rather lost right now. Still feel UT is scummy for day 1 stuff. Don't see much of a case on Luchris - a bit low on content, but nothing much else.

@IS: what do you mean by "only rides bandwagons that are doomed to fail?".

@Ythill: why IS?

[Fishythefish]

Are you probing IS for a reaction? Because this is how he always plays, as far as I can remember

I don't know his playstyle. I've got no problem with his rhetoric, but when he gives actual reasons based on things in the game I want them explained like anyone else's.

[Fishythefish]

Not really. IS

did

give a reason, and I want him to spell out what he means. Having said that,

@mbf: why UT?

[Fishythefish]

By that token, everyone in the whole game has only been on failed wagons. What's so special about Luchris?

[Fishythefish]

Definitely past time for me to comment on some people:

• Luchris: Hasn't really done much. I agree with Ythill's point that his change in read on UT during night 1 is surprising. Something further here; in 452, Luchris says that the whole deadline UT wagon is likely town. That makes it even weirder that he doesn't feel UT is the right vote. This Oman vote instead is something that really doesn't make much sense in the context of Luchris's professed reads. His reaction to pressure on day 1 gave me a slight town vibe.
  
• IS: If you cut out the empty rhetoric, I see a player pushing a wagon very hard on a middlingly strong case.
  
• Espeonage: Had a town read here day 1. He hasn't done anything for two days except park his vote on Oman for joking. This needs to change. Also, I just noticed that when asked for his scumreads, he named me as second choice. @Espe: why?
  
• UT: probscum. See other posts.
  
• mbf: has done nothing. Linked with UT. Minor point: I get a bad vibe from the phrase "playing Devil's advocate". Implies you're wrong and subtley pushes Luchris wagon.
  
• Ythill, volkan,: probtown.
  
• Parama: no read.

My lynch preference order goes something like:

UT>mbf>Luchris>IS>Parama>Espe>volkan>Ythill

Things to do: look harder at all of Ythill's wagon analysis.

[Fishythefish]

@Parama: I'm unclear on why you are voting for Luchris. Could you explain, please?

[Fishythefish]

I could.
I don't feel like it.

Why not? It would help.

[Fishythefish]

It would help me to read you. If you want Luchris lynched, why would you refuse to give your reasoning?

[Fishythefish]

Things to do: look harder at all of Ythill's wagon analysis.

@Ythill: comments on your votecount analysis

Post 598
- I don't really agree that people who voted Oman and not RGHP are a particularly good place to look for scum. I think this depends massively on the alignments of UT and, to a lesser extend, mbf. If buddies were in danger of a lynch on either day, I'd expect more scum on the lynch wagons, and this effect is too big to ignore.
- You say that IS's slot's day 1 play fits scum, with a totally useless vote at deadline. This is true, but the slot wasn't playing the game at the time, so it hardly seems significant. More significant in the case of Parama.
Post 599
- Agree that mod iso 8 makes it deeply unlikely that UT-Esp-volk are all town. volk is town, and Esp is probably town. Look who's scum.
- Agree that it's odd Espe and Luchris didn't go after UT at the beginning of day 2.
- On the (hypothetically) twin town mbf wagon: I think this makes mbftown/UT scum unlikely, conditional on you being town. If UT is town, no particular reason for scum to do anything.
Post 614/644
- I don't see why expressing disbelief of a claim without hammering gets you townpoints.

UNVOTE: UT, VOTE: mbf

I find it extremely likely that both UT and mbf are scum.

[Fishythefish]

mbf's reaction to Ythill's case is totally ew. Ythill's case is ok, but (at least as far as IS is concerned) it's pretty much pointing out what's already obvious. I don't really believe it can have change anyone's fundamental feelings about IS if they're reading the game. Accordingly, I'm very suspicious of mbf using it as a reason to abandon his vote and follow the most likely player in the game to get a bandwagon going.

I'd like to see, by show of votes, how many of you would be willing to lynch IS today.

I see so little in Budja's or Seol's isos that they really don't help me get a read. IS's play can be summarised as "pushing popular bandwagons hard for mediocre reasons, and making no serious attempt to disguise that, while spouting epic rhetoric". Your meta comment that you'd expect him to have solid reasons to be pushing that hard is interesting. IS certainly

doesn't

have solid reasons here, and it seems relatively unlikely he's convinced himself of the case to the extent he's presenting to us. In your opinion, how far out of character would this kind of push on a weak-middle case be for Luchristown?

IS's linking Ythill to Luchris stinks of trying to link a case against him with a scummy player to discredit it unfairly.

I still prefer UT and mbf to IS. I prefer IS to Luchris at this point, although answers to the above and the below are relevant here.

@IS: I see nothing in Luchris's play to justify the level of certainty you are showing. Almost all of your points are "lurking". Lurking is at best a very minor scumtell. Lurking under pressure may even be a towntell. You have literally no reason to think he's going to OMGUS you, other that he's considering voting you.

@Luchris: you've made a couple of references to UT as scum now (iso 31, 35), but now you are deciding between volkan and IS. Where's UT gone?

[Fishythefish]

Luchris had four votes on him at one point as well. So whats the difference? I still dont recall what makes Luchris so innocent in your eyes. He did vote for Oman as well, you know.

You're defending Luchris.

I catch scum. Not telling you how, work it out yourself. I'll look town when we've lynched a few anyway. Criticism of me is because the scum are scared of me.

Luchris doesn't do much, and Ythill defends him a lot. He's scum, you know. When's deadline?

Town is too slow. Only Ythill and me do anything. Ythill defends Luchris an awful lot. Does this mean anything?

Unacceptable. Repeatedly attempts to undermine Ythill's legitimate attacks by framing them as defence of Luchris. Refuses to share his reasons for voting Luchris in case scum learn from how he caught Luchris. If you really feel this strongly, you must want Luchris lynched. Shouting "Luchris is scum" just isn't a way to do that.

You are right about the pace of this town. That's no reason to try to drive the pace to the detriment of reasoned scumhunting.

unvote, vote: IS

Luchris is at L-1, but he should not claim unless someone expresses intent to hammer. I have no intention of doing so - there are 3 lynches I'd prefer right now, and I think we should be able to achieve an IS or mbf lynch here.

[Fishythefish]

Assuming the deadline is two weeks after the day started, I'm going to have crap access near deadline yet again, for usual weekend reasons plus a lot of travelling. I'll be on to avoid no lynches, but I should be considered

V/LA until Monday

.

@mod: Ythill is voting IS, I believe.

[Fishythefish]

@someone with a little more time on their hands: how is Luchris's activity sitewide, particularly in this game day?

[Fishythefish]

Received prod. Activity in 13 hours or so.

[Fishythefish]

@mod:

please prod Espe individually. There's every chance his absence will seriously affect the day.

[Fishythefish]

unvote, vote: Luchris

I don't believe the claim - I think it's unlikely we'd have a JOAT with a roleblock and a roleblocker..

[Fishythefish]

@Batt: why did you expect to be NK'd?

IS is scum. Throughout yesterday, he was insisting Luchris was scum. He seemed extremely certain. But look at his reasons for voting Luchris - there is simply nothing there that justified that kind of certainty. When Ythill called him on that, IS repeatedly portrayed Ythill's attacks as defences of Luchris, linking them in a way which was calculated to undermine Ythill's position.

HoS: IS

Not a vote for LYLO reasons.

@mbf: in 736, you (among other things) note that Luchris's role was testable. Why didn't you bring that up

before

he was lynched?

@mod:

UT hasn't posted for nearly two weeks. Please replace him.

[Fishythefish]

@Parama: why the vote?

[Fishythefish]

I'm not scum. What makes you think I am?

[Fishythefish]

Your scumread on me is wrong. I don't think there's any good reason for it. If you are town, it could lose us the game. Please give me some reasons - is there anything in my play you'd like explained?

[Fishythefish]

That's a much better vote. But still, voting seems a really bad idea. If people throw around votes, there's no way we will win. We should agree on a lynch - an IS lynch, preferably - before anyone votes.

[Fishythefish]

If you are wrong about one of your scumreads, and you vote for the one that's wrong, you risk an instant loss.

If you wait until there is a decent consensus on one of your scumreads, then you don't take that risk.

I agree about IS, as I've said. I also think mbf and UT are likely scum.

[Fishythefish]

I really dislike the number of votes being thrown around here. There's no way we should be voting before we've discussed this. Please unvote.

[Fishythefish]

You should at the very least wait for a volkan response.

No way is IS town.

vote: IS

[Fishythefish]

Also, that line of "scum set me up" is ridiculous when noone has even mentioned the NK.

[Fishythefish]

Actually, it's crazy to have the votes split up like this.

unvote

Everyone should really, really unvote. This is playing right into the scum's hands.

IS's reasoning on volkan is obvBS. The point system has been there all game, it hasn't got any scummier. It's pretty obviously metanull.

[Fishythefish]

How on earth is UT "pretty obvious town"?

[Fishythefish]

Now, if IS is indeed scum, then Vollkan and Parama are town (IS has been buddying to Parama), and Fishy is likely one of his two scum mates. I speculate this based on his recent posts:
"You shouldn't be voting right now"
"Really, voting right now is a bad idea"
"The number of votes is disconcerting"
"*VOTE:IS*"
"No, wait, voting is bad. *UNVOTE*"
To me, this shows that Fishy knows that proper procedure is to NOT VOTE during LyLo until there is an agreement, but he does it anyway to distance himself from IS.

I voted in a moment of stupidity. Partly because of the other votes being thrown around, partly because IS is obvscum (neither of these is a valid reason to vote in lylo, but they added up to one in my head). I don't see how it would distance me from IS more than attacking him and calling for his lynch today and yesterday.

As for the JOAT/roleblocker thing: I thought it was very unlikely. I'd think it usual for a JOAT to have powers that aren't anywhere else in the game. Turns out I was wrong here, but I don't think that was unreasonable.

[Fishythefish]

All the evidence against me is clearly circumstantial and fabricated by Vollkan as a setup.

[Fishythefish]

Why did you quote that?

Don't actually know. I was not really in a fit state to post. I guess I thought it nicely demonstrates IS's habit of saying whatever it takes to drive whatever wagon he's picked.

Little access for 48 hours. I'll be around, but won't have much time for the game.

[Fishythefish]

@IS: why didn't you say a single word about this super-strong scumread before today?

mbf has now been on 2 votes for a while without being hammered. If mbf is town (big if), one of UT and Parama must be scum, and probably both.

[Fishythefish]

It's completely clear to me that IS has no case against volkan. His calling the points system itself scummy is nonsense. His "NK conspiracy" attack just doesn't point to volkan more than anyone else, aside from being the bad kind of WIFOM. His attack on volkan's day 2 play is nicely summed up by volkan as a "conspiracy argument" - assigning arbitrary motivations to arbitrary actions in order to portray someone as scum. It's a nice story, but IS has given no reason to believe it other any other.

Further, it's clear to me that IS simply cannot have believed what he's been saying throughout the last two days. For whatever reason, he's wildly exaggerating (or totally fabricating) his reads. They are poorly reasoned, and he does not care to respond to criticism of them except with wild rants. This betrays a massive lack of curiosity as to who is actually scum.

That's what I'm sure of. And given that, I think IS is scum. He could be town. Town who has taken tunnelling and elevated it to an artform, where he picks a random target and will not rest or speak sense until they have been lynched. But I doubt it. I've never seen a townie so tunnelled who can see their tunnellee flip town and move on to the next without batting an eyelid.

Fishy, I had a scumread on Luchris yesterday, obviously. The fact that he came up innocent and Ythill's death cemented my suspicions of Vollkan.

What about the scumread on volkan? Had you looked at his play at all before today?

@Everyone: what is your read on IS?

[Fishythefish]

@mod:

UT and Parama prods please.

@Batt: I am certainly guilty of not paying enough attention to what you said because of your fellow wagonner. I will correct this soon.

[Fishythefish]

Let's hypothesise volkanscum. Then let's put ourselves in his hyposhoes at the time of post 768. Your points system reads thus:

Player	Points
mikeburnfire	66
Espeonage	52
Ythill Jdodge	54
Parama	50
Luchris	58
Untrod Tripod	50
Internet Stranger Seol Budja	60
Fishythefish	50

The votecount reads thus:

votecount

mikeburnfire (2): Parama, Untrod Tripod
Vollkan (1): Internet Stranger

not voting (4): Battousai, Vollkan, mikeburnfire, Fishythefish

with 7 players, it is 4 to lynch

So, what do you do if mbf is town and Parama OR UT is? You vote mbf, backed up by the Points System, and let your scumbuddy hammer. Or you sit tight for a bit, and then vote mbf. The last thing you do in the whole world is to counterattack IS to the extent that he leapfrogs mbf in your suspicions.

This points

extremely

strongly to volkanscum -> mbfscum OR {Parama AND UT scum}. I'd bet the game on that - if not then volkanscum passed up an excellent chance to win the game, in return for extremely marginal benefits.

Nothing similar applies on the other wagon - there's no player with a good excuse to vote volkan here.

I judge a volkan/Parama/UT team unlikely enough that there's no way I'd vote for volkan over mbf today (partly due to any one team being unlikely compared with the large numbers of teams I'd still believe, partly because I don't really think Parama's scum, partly because I think IS is scum).

I had a post typed out about Batt's case, which I don't think is massively compelling, but it seems to have been lost in a quote/copy/past/tabs frenzy. In summary, volkan's lack of vote move isn't suspicious, because delaying the vote wouldn't advantage him as scum. The points he gave Oman were relatively weak, and this makes volkan/UT more believable.

[Fishythefish]

This points extremely strongly to volkanscum -> mbfscum OR {Parama AND UT scum}

Wow, there's a whole epidemic of stupid going around today, isn't there? Since Vollkan didn't end up voting me in the scenario that you just set up, it is proof that either vollkan is town, or we are BOTH scum.
----------------------

That's pretty much exactly what I'm saying there. What that means is "IF volkan is scum, EITHER mbf is scum OR (Parama and UT are BOTH scum)". So it's proof that either volkan is town, or you are both scum or the scumteam is precisely volkan/Parama/UT.

That doesn't say you are scum, and it most certainly doesn't say volkan is scum. It does say that if volkan is scum, you almost certainly are, making you at least as good a lynch as him.

[Fishythefish]

It does say that if volkan is scum, you almost certainly are, making you at least as good a lynch as him.

Actually, by that logic, I am a far better lynch than Vollkan. But please don't.

-------------------------------------------

The people who say they are willing to lynch IS includes: MBF, Vollkan, Parama, and Fishy. The people who express no desire to lynch IS are IS (duh), battousai, and UT.

Scum are Tripod, Stranger, and Battousai. Calling it now.

The only reason this game is still going is because Batt joined the game recently and saw his scumpartner going after Vollkan with all his might and decided to follow him, too foolish to realize that if he would just vote MBF, IS could jump ship and win the game for scum.

/game

Sorry, that was rather unclear of me. What I mean is that in (almost) any scenario we could be in, you are at least as good a lynch as volkan. Which means that overall you are a much better lynch than volkan.

@IS: the last few posts on volkan/mbf are highly relevant to anyone who is voting for volkan. What do you make of the logic that volkan would almost certainly have gone after mbf if he was scum and mbf was town?

[Fishythefish]

unvote, vote: volkan

Because he's scum.

[Fishythefish]

For my part, I was worried that Parama was still online and might react faster than you. It was only 20 minutes after he voted. I couldn't have justified an mbf vote from my "don't vote" and "IS is scum" positions, so it would have outed me and pointed heavily to you and UT if I'd cast it and he'd unvoted.

[Fishythefish]

Well, thanks for the praise, and well done UT and IS. Watching IS was very interesting indeed. I have a great deal of respect for his playstyle. UT did a very solid job as a low-impact player reaching endgame.

I really do feel that voting in lylo helps the scum a lot. Even if quickhammering is hard, it means fewer scum players need to find plausible excuses for their votes. If we'd been playing with FOSses, I couldn't have quickhammered, and I think it's pretty likely we'd have ended up at an IS lynch - that was the only potential wagon with 4 people intending to vote on it. Not voting forces the scum to take real stances on each other and the rest of the town - and makes them stick to previous positions, or give good reasons for changing them.

[Fishythefish]

That's very good to hear - not easy judging your own meta-game.

Forgot to say - thanks to myk for modding the game extremely well.