Mini 1140 - Mafia Mishmash...Game Over!!

[Maxous]

* Tclawren was growing...

Sorry, was lazy!

[subgenius]

Also, as an overall meta standpoint that I firmly believe in: if we punish scum for making "optimal" decisions (killing those who are a threat to them) by analyzing every NK for motivation, then we can force them into making suboptimal decisions because they don't want to get outed. Therefore, by forcing them into making suboptimal decisions we can gain a slight advantage resulting more often in a town win.

Scum know that their targets are going to be examined and pick them accordingly. Knowing this, it's foolish to read too much into why the targets were chosen. We can't know the scum motivation for killing any particular player, so it would be unwise to lynch somebody on the basis of assuming we know those motivations. The killer might have picked tclawren because he considered him a strong town candidate, but unlikely to be watched. He might have picked him purely randomly. He might have picked him with the intention of making the exact argument you're making on D2 to fuel the lynch of an innocent. Also, the "optimal" kill isn't necessarily the player that has already expressed suspicion of the actual scum, it could be the player that is considered most likely to eventually pin point the scum and lead a wagon against him. Further, the scum know that their targets are going to be examined and pick them accordingly. Knowing this, it's foolish to read too much into why the targets were chosen.

Overall, I consider this reason for voting pretty poor.

Also, if you think Yura is the SK, who are you thinking is mafia? Why didn't you analyze Pappum's death in a similar way as tclawren's? This seems exceedingly scummy imo, because only mafia would be solely interested in finding the SK.

[Regfan]

@ Maxous, I'm actually unsure how I forgot to add her onto my list I'll ISO and post related to her later.

@Subgenius did you C/P a few lines of that and spam paste until it looked like a big enough block?

[subgenius]

Tbh, I did do some pretty lazy cut/paste editing after I wrote it, so I guess I wouldn't be surprised if it has the appearance of a misordered ramble. Sorry. I guess the last three lines are all that's really needed.

[andrew94]

@surprise, im saying that you are attacking the most' suspicious' person- yura, in order to deflect attention.
then you draw attention to my 5 lowly posts, which again- deflecting attention. maybe you would deem to look at my other games and see how many posts i have in them.
my vote is justified

@vollkan, agree about the iso, dont agree about gut (gut is good bro).

@max, what unvoting incident

@ckd, im pretty sure u had about 10000 games under your belt, then you would know that vigs dont use knifes??

fos ckd

[bgg1996]

I am suspiscious of anybody who decided to lynch him anyway, after I told you not to, or at least not yet.

No, but if we extended the day, we may have found evidence to believe Magnetic, or found somebody more scummy than magnetic, to lynch somebody else.

bgg+7

There was no reasonable argument against Magnetic's lynch, and the case for stalling was weak (let's not lynch right away, in case something happens!). Magnetic's was scummy as hell and, moreover, any reason for doubt relied on assuming he was trolling (which is an impossible assumption to make).

Faced with that, it's absurd that you would now turn around and attack those who lynched Magnetic, based on the off chance that the skies would open and proclaim his innocence. Coupled with your "too townie" rhetoric, the most reasonable explanation is that you are scum trying to capitalise on a quick lynch of a terrible (but ultimately town) player.

First of all, I could go on all day about what could've happened if we had extended the day.

Second, the main reasoning for prolonging the day is that we have more input from those who would've died last night. There are three people who arenow confirmed town, who have average 16 posts each. There were 48 posts total, 29 of which were Magnetic's.

Thirdly, I'm not saying we should not have lynched Magnetic, I'm saying that we should've used the time that was remaining in that day. We weren't going to make Magnetic look any better or worse, but we probably would have found much evidence about other possible scum.

Lastly, what "Too Townie" rhetoric are you referring to?

[curiouskarmadog]

@ckd, im pretty sure u had about 10000 games under your belt, then you would know that vigs dont use knifes??

fos ckd

hey dumbass, I know that...I am trying to figure out what REG knows...thus my questions...please reread what I was asking..

anyway, still plan on updating tomorrow.

[curiouskarmadog]

have skimmed, will update/retort/vote this weekend.

Reg, have some questions though, if you have already answered them just provide the quote.

why did you assume that the second kill was a vig kill and completely skim over the possibility it could be an SK?

have you ever been in a game with an SK?

if you think it was a vig kill, which kill would you guess was the vig kill?

can you please link me to a scum game?

just for the record....andrew...where in these question did you get the impression that I THOUGHT the stabbing was from a vig?...if you read them, you would know EXACTLY what I was asking here...I was trying to figure out which kill REG thought the from the vig...there is a line of thought/logic I will be following up with Reg tomorrow...

[Maxous]

Is it unusual on this forum for a stab not to represent a kill from a Serial killer? I.E. is it safe to assume that the shot was from the mafia and the stab was from a third party?
It's not going to be say, a shot from a vig and a stab from the mafia?

[yura-chi]

@maxous - yes i meant mafia members.... also im saying that during d1 ckd suddenly siding with me while being heavily suspected was a way of him helping me while not being that obvious....so i thought he was obviously scum and thus me voting for him cuz i thought he was scummy....i don't really get myself....for now ima UNVOTE: and raise a FOS on CKD until i find more logical reason to vote for him

ill post again during the break!

[Surprise_Carcinogen]

I'm thinking the same, Max. I've seen 'shot' represent Mafia, and Vig, and I've seen 'stab' represent SK and Mafia. I've never seen someone use two different terms for two different mafia-groups though, so I'm leaning away from that idea. Andrew, a proper response to the simple stupidity of your post is incoming.

[Surprise_Carcinogen]

@surprise, im saying that you are attacking the most' suspicious' person- yura, in order to deflect attention.
then you draw attention to my 5 lowly posts, which again- deflecting attention. maybe you would deem to look at my other games and see how many posts i have in them.
my vote is justified

Two major things. First, you consider it suspect to go after the most suspicious person. This is, as far as I can tell, completely stupid. Other people, feel free to correct me, but generally if someone is the most suspicious...you vote for them. Read my prior reply to you, where I mention not wanting her dead yet, but she's still suspect number 1, and thus, still my favorite for a lynch.

As for deflecting...you realize you just said "Hey, you're using the fact that I didn't post much in an attempt to deflect your own suspicious nature", and that is, itself, a complete deflection. Answer to your tiny and useless post-count, hell, answer ANY question posed to you with a real answer, and maybe you can start deciding what a deflection is and isn't. Until then, yes, I think I was justified in hammering Magnetic. Letting a cheater and a troll wander around would have only hurt us D1. Yes, I want to see Yura hang, eventually, for the moment. No, it is not reasonable to consider me voting Yura a deflection to distract people from my hammer.

[Truant]

*sigh*

@Max:

this post feels off cos it seems to be town credit seeking.(although i myself was about to defend magnetic due o the way he trolled in my game, but tclawren doesnt know that?)

I read all his games the other day right before he claimed doc. I was trying to figure out how new he was, so yeah I know he's an idiot.

I honestly believe that more discussion could have helped and without it I wouldn't be nearly as wary of bgg as I am, but the topic of discussion had flagged thanks to regfan taking the bait from bgg. That combined with the post that ultimately comprised a taunt by Magnetic I think that it was perhaps good for the SC to hammer.

What about this post really makes you think that he suspected bgg as much as he suspected pappum's?

@subgenius: Yes, cause scum plan for nk analysis to intentionally gimp themselves first night when they don't know whether or not the NK will be analyzed. Yes, they *might* have done anything, but the most logical and best choice for them typically is removing threats to them. I analyzed the SK first to see if there was a good start on eliminating an anti-town NK right off the bat. We can't be assured that they'll go for scum (or that they'll even hit scum) so therefore I'd rather get rid of them if I can since I don't believe that it's a vig. (Possible 2nd mafia, but again, it'd be a 2/2/9 start, which personally I think is town favored; but that's neither here nor there)

After skimming the whole game again, both pappum's and tclawren suspected Yura primarily (in my eyes). At least one of these has to be a setup (possibly both) so

Unvote

until I can really get time to read the thread again.

Probably be tomorrow morning... maybe.

[andrew94]

hey surprise, look at how many posts magnetic has, is he much better than me?
if so, /wrist

im not saying i have more than 4 posts rofl, i did only have 4 posts in day 1, however, youre deflecting ur suspicious nature. i, on the othe hand, did not deflect my own 4 posts, so stop strawmanning pls

@ckd, i might have misread

[Surprise_Carcinogen]

Why do you consider Vig so unlikely? I consider it the MOST likely of scenarios, to be honest. 2/2/9 is no good, as it once again allows one mafia group to die off first night(D1 lynch, other mafia N1 kill).
But, if there is an SK, and it WAS Yura, things would make a lot more sense. With the lense of there possibly being an SK, things like the 'threat' comment, and Yura's general ambivalence towards being consdiered scum could also be newb-sk cockiness.

That said, I think the options, in order of likely hood are: vig, sk, and 2 mafia, with the last extra unlikely. 2/2/9 isn't a good set up, and 3/3/7 is also no good, as it might leave town extinct too early in the game.


also, @andrew: You are completely misusing 'strawmanning', for one. I'm not deflecting anything at all. I hammered magnetic. It was a good call. What am I deflecting? You, on the other hand, are trying your damndest to make a completely stupid accusation stick, and with ever-thinning logical fallacies. What about me is a 'suspicious nature'(This also means something different then you meant, but I understand what you mean at least), and what questions would you like answered, if you figure I'm avoiding something.

[andrew94]

huh? basically, you referred to nothing about day1(hoping for ppl to forget) and instantly get someone that looks sus (yura)

[Surprise_Carcinogen]

Well, what would you like me to refer to about day 1? It was dominated by someone whose sole purpose was to mislead and confuse us. If there's something from D1 you'd like me to answer for, go ahead and ask. But so far, you're not making a solid accusation, just "Ignoring day1, this is scummy", not "You did this this and this on D1, this is scummy". one of those two statements is scumhunting. one is a crappy attempt at a pointless case. You be the judge.

tl;dr if you think I'm ignoring something, tell me what it is.

[vollkan]

I'm voting for Yura right now as

my vote is useless if it's not used

, and it's

based on what I believe to be the best hard evidence so far in the game

. Also, as an overall meta standpoint that I firmly believe in: if we punish scum for making "optimal" decisions (killing those who are a threat to them) by analyzing every NK for motivation, then we can force them into making suboptimal decisions because they don't want to get outed. Therefore, by forcing them into making suboptimal decisions we can gain a slight advantage resulting more often in a town win.

1) Your vote being useless if not used is not a reason for voting

Yura

rather than anybody else
2) What hard evidence? You've dismissed the arguments I've been making against Yura
3) I don't even understand the 'optimal ' decisions part of this...

Truant+5

contingent on response

@vollkan, agree about the iso, dont agree about gut (gut is good bro).

*cringe*

First of all, I could go on all day about what could've happened if we had extended the day.

I have no doubt. The point is, as I have said a few times already, that there wasn't any real likelihood of anything important happening. We would have been crazy not to have lynched Magnetic in all but the most extreme cases (eg. if scum claimed).

Second, the main reasoning for prolonging the day is that we have more input from those who would've died last night. There are three people who arenow confirmed town, who have average 16 posts each. There were 48 posts total, 29 of which were Magnetic's.

You're assuming that the day would have continued with a substantial amount of discussion on new and important topics. That simply isn't how these things work. The day would have plateaued off and, if past experience is anything to go by, such D1 discussion would be next to useless.

Thirdly, I'm not saying we should not have lynched Magnetic, I'm saying that we should've used the time that was remaining in that day. We weren't going to make Magnetic look any better or worse, but we probably would have found much evidence about other possible scum.

Yesterday, we had less information than we do now. Thus, we are better off information-wise.

If we spent more time yesterday discussing for discussion's sake, scum would have been more informed going into night.

I see no realistic way that more discussion yesterday would have substantially improved our situation now

Lastly, what "Too Townie" rhetoric are you referring to?

I mean that your arguments for extending the day sound extremely pro-town ("more information" is like this game's equivalent of "kittens and puppies for all!") but your arguments are based on extremely unrealistic assumptions about the value of prolonging D1. So, it's a case of appearing really pro-town, by actually spouting nonsense. This stacks with the way you explicitly stated that you were suspicious of anybody who pushed the lynch.

Is it unusual on this forum for a stab not to represent a kill from a Serial killer? I.E. is it safe to assume that the shot was from the mafia and the stab was from a third party?
It's not going to be say, a shot from a vig and a stab from the mafia?

Stab often represents SK, but it's not a hard and fast rule.

[bgg1996]

I find it extremely unlikely that Magnetic just guessed that there were two killing sources. There is no vig.


@Vollkan
You are saying that if we discussed further, we would not have any more substantial information, but scum would still be more informed.
If I am overstating the merits of longer days, then you are definately understating them.

[Surprise_Carcinogen]

I have my own reasons to disbelieve the random babling of magnetic.

And Vollkan, I started off agreeing with you(A longer day really wouldn't have helped. We were going to just keep ending up being baited or confused by magnetic, and not really said anything of import) But you are contradicting yourself now. After all, if scum would have had information(they wouldn't have) wouldn't we? There's no solid reason for having ended the day that early except for impatience, but there was no reason to extend it either. We weren't gaining anything either way, except waiting three weeks for what would undoubtedly have been pointless nonsense

[subgenius]

@subgenius: Yes, cause scum plan for nk analysis to intentionally gimp themselves first night when they don't know whether or not the NK will be analyzed. Yes, they *might* have done anything, but the most logical and best choice for them typically is removing threats to them.

Scum would be have to be full of idiots to not consider the likelihood that the town will go back and re-read the opinions of their victims. Again, scum has every reason to try to remove threats, but D1 fos's are not the only criteria that scum would use to in judging how threatening a townie is, and to lynch based on that basis is foolish.

I analyzed the SK first to see if there was a good start on eliminating an anti-town NK right off the bat. We can't be assured that they'll go for scum (or that they'll even hit scum) so therefore I'd rather get rid of them if I can since I don't believe that it's a vig.

That makes sense, but there were two victims, and you only analyzed the presumed SK victim. If your method is valid at all, it would work just as well against mafia, but you didn't even make an attempt. I'll agree that taking out the single SK is more beneficial than taking out one of several mafia, but catching one of each is better. You didn't even make an attempt to create a mafia lead.

As it turns out, both victims seemed to have yura as their top suspects, so you would have ended up with the same conclusion either way, but you didn't even bother to look into pappums. There are only mafia motivations for this.

[vollkan]

@Vollkan
You are saying that if we discussed further, we would not have any more substantial information, but scum would still be more informed.
If I am overstating the merits of longer days, then you are definately understating them.

And Vollkan, I started off agreeing with you(A longer day really wouldn't have helped. We were going to just keep ending up being baited or confused by magnetic, and not really said anything of import) But you are contradicting yourself now. After all, if scum would have had information(they wouldn't have) wouldn't we? There's no solid reason for having ended the day that early except for impatience, but there was no reason to extend it either. We weren't gaining anything either way, except waiting three weeks for what would undoubtedly have been pointless nonsense

I assumed you'd realise that there are different types of "information".

To be explicit:
Town is interested in information about who is/is not scum. To that end, continuing a D1 discussion when the lynchee is already known is not likely to be fruitful. ie. discussion can occur on D2 anyway with the benefit of being more accurate (as a result of the knowledge gained from the flips).

Scum have at least three types of information that they are interested in, going into N1 at least: power roles, player skills and player suspicions. Drawn out discussion, whether it helps catching scum or not, does give scum information about the different players and their suspicions.

Bear in mind also, that I am not saying that those who wanted to extend the day were suspicious or that extending the day would necessarily have been harmful. As I said yesterday, I was ambivalent on the whole issue. My point is that it is ridiculous for bgg or anybody else to get sanctimonious about the early lynch, when the benefits of prolonging the day were purely speculative and potentially offset by (equally speculative, fwiw) risks.

[Surprise_Carcinogen]

Bgg didn't write that last bit, I did. And I think we may actually be agreeing right now. It is, at least, my position, that the gains and risks were equally small and unlikely, and so extending the day or not extending it were merely a matter of patience and impatience.

[bgg1996]

@S_C
Would that be because you are the vigilante?

Mod: What did the weak doctor do?

[vollkan]

@S_C
Would that be because you are the vigilante?

bgg+10

Give me even a single decent reason why you would ask that question.