Mini 1140 - Mafia Mishmash...Game Over!!

[bgg1996]

Claim: One Shot Redirector. Yura did not use her ability. If I'm allowed to live, I plan on using it in mylo to reflect the scums kill back at themselves. If we reach lylo and I haven't used it by then, I THINK I the night will play out and I can redirect the scums kill back at themselves if we mislynch.

Also, this will not work. If we get to lylo and mislynch, scum can just not kill, and win with a tie.
This is why you must use it at the very next opportunity. Time is running out. If you don't use it soon, you won't be able to at all.

[Maxous]

vollkan is now pinging off the charts as scum

Is this only because of his "no lynch" vote or is there more?
I don't think you mentioned a previous suspicion on Vollkan before(as opposed to myself and Haylen)

I'm not sure how it works, if you just need any scum to redirect the kill, it's 3 town (not including me or you) to 3 mafia right now. If we lynch a mafia, it's 3 town to 2 mafia. If we don't lynch a mafia, we all die. Of course, if you need

the

scum, that's a different story.

Yes, a re-director would have to target the exact person that performs the night kill.

So subgenius...did you misunderstand how the ability works or something?

Preview Edit:
Bgg think of the numbers: If we mislynch today worst case scenario is 4 town, 3 mafia going into the night.
If we successfully lynch today and mislynch tomorrow it would be 3 town, 2 mafia going into the night. etc. etc.
=> There will be a chance to use as long as we keep the extra town number.

[bgg1996]

Yes. That is why it will work in mylo. Not lylo.

[subgenius]

So subgenius...did you misunderstand how the ability works or something?

Yes, I did misunderstand how the ability worked.

[Maxous]

Yes. That is why it will work in mylo. Not lylo.

Oh I see what you mean now.

Okay this means we should lynch today then for sure.

[Maxous]

Well on that end, my first thought is River. I don't think Andrew being a SK changes that much about the read on him.

@Subgenius: Are you preferring a Haylen lynch over a River one at the moment?

[bgg1996]

Somehow, I don't think either of them are scum.
Except maybe CMAR.

At the very least, we should look for a new candidate.

[bgg1996]

At the very least, we should look for a new candidate.

And scum, this is the perfect time to bus one of your buddies.

[curiouskarmadog]

vollkan is now pinging off the charts as scum

Is this only because of his "no lynch" vote or is there more?
I don't think you mentioned a previous suspicion on Vollkan before(as opposed to myself and Haylen)

no, i have been hesitant about volkan since yesterday....but lets say that I havent mentioned volkan for the entire fucking game..what is your point? and no, it isnt just the "no lynch".

[curiouskarmadog]

volkan....why did you think no lynch was a good idea?..you are one of the most logical players I have ever played with...explain your thinking here.

[bgg1996]

Under normal circumstances, with a mylo situation, the scum would kill a town member, and it will be more likely tohit scum when we next vote.
Either way, we still get only one lynch til we lose, but with a no lynch, we are more likely to lynch scum.
Under these circumstances, however, they would just kill me, and we would be none the wiser.

[bgg1996]

Okay, I see. Haylen must use her ability, if she is telling the truth, the very next time that we do not lynch scum on a day.

[Regfan]

I can understand the benefits behind a no lynch in this situation generally but when it just leads to a confirmed clear dying it really is idiotic. On top of that, I believe I understand the mechanics behind Haylens role now but this refrainment from using it is bizarre, it really is. With 9 alive last night and two confirmed clear essentially as well as ruling herself out that would allow a 1/6 chance of redirecting the kill onto a mafia. With reads and whatnot added to that she should be able to get it to around a 30-50% success rate which is certaintly worth use of it considering there's intense pressure towards her seemingly upcoming lynch. Doing so would lead towards:

1) Have a decent shot at turning the bullet and killing a mafia.
2) Preventing S_C for dying allowing another investigation
3) Self-confirming herself as a townie removing the highly likelyhood of her getting lynched.

In other words, her denial to use her powers don't seem to have much town-motivation behind them - And she would actually be my biggest suspect at the moment (Not due to Yuras actions but her own). With that said I do think too much focus has lay around the slots that the replacements filled with not enough revolving around other players, noticably: Ckd, Volkan and Maxomus so I would hope that the progression of this day would reveal more information about them.

Although some hate setup speculation I feel it's needed here. With 13 players, has there ever been SK+3 mafia in a past mini because from intial view that seems unbalanced, so in all likelyhood there's two mafia and we have a mslynch.

[subgenius]

@Subgenius: Are you preferring a Haylen lynch over a River one at the moment?

I'm still trying to decide on that.

The behavior of Yura, the convenience of having a role that provides almost no utility until the end of the game, making things up to explain her night actions... It all rings scum to me. On the other hand, I'm willing to admit that there's a chance that I'm wrong, and there are most likely two more scum to find. I definitely want to hear more from CMAR. I think if the deadline was tonight, I'd put my vote on Haylen, but this is quite subject to change.

I would also like to draw attention to the votes on Andrew. Based on his alignment, I think it's safe to assume there was some mafia present on his wagon. That wagon consisted of:

(curiouskarmadog, bgg1996, Haylen, Regfan, CryMeARiver, Surprise_Carcinogen)

S_C:Is dead
bgg: I'm assuming he's town, maybe he's not, but in the absence of stronger evidence, I'm not going to ignore S_C's investigation.
CKD: Is reading much more town to me now than he was for the first part of the game.
Regfan: I was reading town on him earlier, but I'm not so sure now.
Haylen: I think she's scum.
CMAR: Probably scum.

I would not be at all surprised if Regfan is scum with CMAR based on his defense of him yesterday, but perhaps that is too obvious.

I would also be surprised if all three scum were on Andrew's wagon, which means that either Maxous or Vollkan is probably scum.

I want to emphasize that this doesn't represent a culmination of my reads through the entire game. It's more a set of assumptions based on how the day ended yesterday.

@regfan: I just finished a game with SK + 3 maf. The town lost and a few complained that it was imbalanced, but nonetheless, that was the setup.

[Duplicity]

@regfan: I just finished a game with SK + 3 maf. The town lost and a few complained that it was imbalanced, but nonetheless, that was the setup.

Do you have a link by any chance?

Also - What leads you to believe that mafia would likely be on a SK lynch, you don't believe it possible or likely that they considered him just to be a VT (Not SK) and dealt with his lynch and wagon as such?

[Regfan]

Wow. I really can never get a hang of this switching accounts buisness. The above post is obviously mine.

[curiouskarmadog]

With that said I do think too much focus has lay around the slots that the replacements filled with not enough revolving around other players, noticably: Ckd, Volkan and Maxomus so I would hope that the progression of this day would reveal more information about them.

who do you think has been focusing on replacement slots?

I would also like to draw attention to the votes on Andrew. Based on his alignment, I think it's safe to assume there was some mafia present on his wagon. That wagon consisted of:

(curiouskarmadog, bgg1996, Haylen, Regfan, CryMeARiver, Surprise_Carcinogen)

why focus on this wagon, you think the off wagon had less scum on it?

why not focus on the previous day's wagon too?

banned loser

– 7 (Andrew94, yura-chi, vollkan, Maxous, Truant, subgenius, Surprise_Carcinogen)

oh look you are there....so given this alignment, isnt it also safe to assume scum is here as well?

[subgenius]

@ Regfan
Here's the link:

Mini 1126

Also - What leads you to believe that mafia would likely be on a SK lynch, you don't believe it possible or likely that they considered him just to be a VT (Not SK) and dealt with his lynch and wagon as such?

I think the only significant fact to consider is that Andrew was not mafia, so it's extremely likely that the mafia contributed to his lynch. I'd have more or less the same opinion on the wagon if Andrew turned out to be a VT, although I might be speculating on who the SK was if that was the case.

why focus on this wagon, you think the off wagon had less scum on it?

I think it's only natural to focus on the wagon of a lynched non-mafia player when the off wagon was against a player whom I strongly suspect. If CKD is maf, as I suspect he is, then I would expect more players on Andrew's wagon. I freely admit that there are a lot of assumptions here, but I'm trying to piece together of a theory of the game that makes sense to me.

why not focus on the previous day's wagon too?

IMO, Magnetic was so scummy and so toxic that I have trouble finding anyone suspicious for voting him. It simply had to be done. I do think that it's safe to assume there's scum on that wagon as well. FWIW, there are two slots that were on both lynch wagons, CMAR and Haylen.

[Maxous]

Somehow, I don't think either of them are scum.

Is this referring to Haylen and River?

no, i have been hesitant about volkan since yesterday....but lets say that I havent mentioned volkan for the entire fucking game..what is your point? and no, it isnt just the "no lynch".

No real 'point'. I wanted to know if it was only because of that action or is there more to it.
Whereas your suspicion towards myself and Haylen was previously explained.

Although some hate setup speculation I feel it's needed here. With 13 players, has there ever been SK+3 mafia in a past mini because from intial view that seems unbalanced, so in all likelyhood there's two mafia and we have a mslynch.

Let's assume the worst just in case.

By the way if you want more information on me or have any queries - just ask.

[Regfan]

Subgenius - Oh wow. I've actually spectated that entire game in the past - Barry linked it to me when he finished it, I just didn't realize it was a Mini.

The idea of speculating over Andrews lynch only holds any ground if the opposing wagon was mafia and this wagon was pushed in an attempt to prevent one of their own getting lynched. If both running lynches were town/sk it's entirely possible that there are no mafia on the Andrew lynch. Therefore I see no point in speculating over the list of players on the Andrew lynch unless you've got a definitive read on the alternate wagons.

CuriousKarmaDog - I honestly believe that almost everyone alive has focused a little more attention than needed towards the slots, though if I had to be more specific I would say noticably Volkan and Subgenius.

Maxous - Don't mind if I do:
1) Do you have any thoughts in regards to the activity or lack thereof at the conclusion of yesterdays lynch?
2)Do you feel anyone in particular attempted to avoid the thread or us from reaching a general conclusion of who to lynch?
3)Given that the focus has drifted towards Volkan in some regard, do you think the attention towards him is warranted?

[subgenius]

The idea of speculating over Andrews lynch only holds any ground if the opposing wagon was mafia and this wagon was pushed in an attempt to prevent one of their own getting lynched. If both running lynches were town/sk it's entirely possible that there are no mafia on the Andrew lynch. Therefore I see no point in speculating over the list of players on the Andrew lynch unless you've got a definitive read on the alternate wagons.

You're speaking sense here, and I certainly wouldn't use that bandwagon analysis as the entirety of a case, but since I have a strong suspicion that CMAR is mafia, I find it helpful. You're correct in expressing caution, though. Maybe I am putting the wagon ahead of the horse.

[vollkan]

About to catch a bus, so no time to make a big post. Just wanted to address the NL issue quickly

Gee, it really would have been nice if Haylen had redirected that kill. I'm not sure NL is the best option, since the scum will probably just take the opportunity to kill bgg. I suppose he's not technically confirmed since he could still be a godfather, but in our current situation, I think it makes sense to assume he is actually town.

NO. NO. NO.

Policy-wise, Bgg needs to be treated as confirmed - that is, he is objectively more likely to be town than anybody else. However, it is absolutely the wrong play to adopt a play approach which assumes that he actually IS town (ie. by depriving ourselves of the information that flows from a NK).

The test is pretty simple:

Do you think Bgg's prob-town opinion is more useful than confirmation of his alignment? (other of course, in the situation of bgg not being NKed, in which case it's basically a question of whether him being a GF is more likely than scum not killing for WIFOM value - but that in and of itself would be a form of information)

I can't see how anybody could think that the answer to the test is "yes".

we go into the night, so scum will eliminate a possible canidate for us...they will not...bgg is cleared as town, so that will be their obvious to kill..

so if we no lynch, all we are doing is getting rid of a confirmed town...and we will be in the EXACT SAME POSITION WE ARE NOW..

consider us at LYLO right now.

@Everybody

See above; this isn't correct at all.

[curiouskarmadog]

If CKD is maf, as I suspect he is, then I would expect more players on Andrew's wagon. .

also i am confused here...what are you trying to say? you think i am mafia?

[curiouskarmadog]

REALLY?...what is incorrect?

I asked you to explain your logic, and you just say I am incorrect?....

please do explain when you get off that bus.

why do you have a problem with us treating today like it is already LYLO? I am not going to vote for bgg....neither is anyone else....so it is like we no lynched, and scum has already killed him.....most likely we are dealing with a 3 person scum team. there is absolutely NO REASON TO NO LYNCH TODAY.

@subgenius, I thought Andrew was super scummy....there is no reason to think that there wasnt scum on the other wagon...if you are going to use wagons as a basis for cases...you should not exclude ANY wagon.

If CKD is maf, as I suspect he is, then I would expect more players on Andrew's wagon. .

also i am confused here...what are you trying to say? you think i am mafia?

[curiouskarmadog]

was cutting and pasting and posted the same question twice.