Mini 1140 - Mafia Mishmash...Game Over!!

[bgg1996]

Would it kill ya' to give a single solitary not-insane reason why you think I'm scum.
Yeah, I might not be clear, but as far as I can remember, I don't remember a single charge being brought up against me.

[subgenius]

My read on Max and Vollkan is slipping.

Any reasons in particular for this?

I didn't care for how you both started the day out with theory talk rather than scum hunting.

This happened after the above quoted post, but:

Yes, if we mislynch today (which is inherently a lynch that is based on less information than a post-NL lynch and, thus, is more likely to be a mislynch) , we need to rely on town-Haylen to save us (and those odds aren't good).

Whereas, if we NL, Haylen might be able to redirect tonight anyway - but even if she doesn't (either by failing or not acting), we still get to lynch tomorrow with more information.

Now, it's also completely untrue that Haylen's ability won't save us. Imagine a 4:3 LYLO. We mislynch, it goes to 3:3. Yes, as you said earlier, scum can just No Kill, but they don't win with a tie. The reason that games get endgamed when there is a tie is that there is no way for town to win. However, in 3:3, we still can win - by Haylen redirecting at night. (and, for obvious maths odds reasons, it's better that we rely on Haylen in a post-LYLO mislynch rather than a post-MYLO mislynch).

I do not like Vollkan justifying a no lynch by arguing that Haylen's ability would be more likely to succeed after a post LYLO mislynch. Haylen still has the highest scum score according to Vollkan, and she is in no way cleared. I cannot imagine why town Vollkan would argue for a NL on the assumption that Haylen's claim is valid. Town Vollkan can't know the truth of Haylen's claim. Scum Vollkan knows she is town and therefor assumes she is telling the truth or knows she is faking but has a motive for playing along with the claim.

100% Filler

Enough said.

[vollkan]

2) S_C got an innocent on Bgg. While Bgg is likely town (despite my dislike of her scummy play), there is a chance that he is investigation immune and we cannot regard him as a clear in situations like this when town could possibly lose depending on the lynch. Now of course we listen to his reads and he is not the lynch for today, but he is not clear.

I'm confused. Do you or do you not think BGG is scum?

I didn't care for how you both started the day out with theory talk rather than scum hunting.

Please.

The question of whether or not NL is the best strategy today is not "theory talk", any more than debating whether or not a person's conduct was scummy or not is "theory talk".

Moreover, given that a number of people found my position scummy, it was directly game relevant for me to go into detail justifying that position. You only have to look at Bgg's #1022 to show that the argument has had an impact on his opinion of my actions, in that whilst he still disagrees with me he no longer sees it as a scumtell.

Yes, if we mislynch today (which is inherently a lynch that is based on less information than a post-NL lynch and, thus, is more likely to be a mislynch) , we need to rely on town-Haylen to save us (and those odds aren't good).

Whereas, if we NL, Haylen might be able to redirect tonight anyway - but even if she doesn't (either by failing or not acting), we still get to lynch tomorrow with more information.

Now, it's also completely untrue that Haylen's ability won't save us. Imagine a 4:3 LYLO. We mislynch, it goes to 3:3. Yes, as you said earlier, scum can just No Kill, but they don't win with a tie. The reason that games get endgamed when there is a tie is that there is no way for town to win. However, in 3:3, we still can win - by Haylen redirecting at night. (and, for obvious maths odds reasons, it's better that we rely on Haylen in a post-LYLO mislynch rather than a post-MYLO mislynch).

I do not like Vollkan justifying a no lynch by arguing that Haylen's ability would be more likely to succeed after a post LYLO mislynch. Haylen still has the highest scum score according to Vollkan, and she is in no way cleared. I cannot imagine why town Vollkan would argue for a NL on the assumption that Haylen's claim is valid. Town Vollkan can't know the truth of Haylen's claim. Scum Vollkan knows she is town and therefor assumes she is telling the truth or knows she is faking but has a motive for playing along with the claim.

That quote needs to be taken in context. Maxous made the argument, with which other people agreed, that one reason NL was bad because Haylen-town's ability was only useful in MYLO. My point in the above was to prove that, if Haylen is town, her ability is just as, if not more, useful in LYLO than in MYLO.

In short, I was rebutting an argument which assumed that Haylen was town on its own terms.

[subgenius]

Yeah, I see what you're saying about adopting the same assumptions for the sake of argument, and I suppose I'll grant you the point about NL talk. I think my suspicion of that discussion might just be a product of me starting to get a bit frustrated with the lack of solid leads. I'm getting impatient.

I'm still not sure about NL'ing, and I'm looking forward to CMAR's next post, because his last one was not confidence inspiring.

[havingfitz]

Votecount 3.1:

No Lynch - 1 (vollkan)

Not voting: (CryMeARiver, curiouskarmadog, bgg1996, Haylen, Regfan, Maxous, subgenius)

With 8 players left it’s 5 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is 0600 EST, April 24th.

Congrats CKD on becoming an uncle

[Maxous]

Congrats CKD on becoming an uncle

+1

Back on topic:

Now, it's also

completely untrue

that Haylen's ability won't save us. Imagine a 4:3 LYLO. We mislynch, it goes to 3:3. Yes, as you said earlier, scum can just No Kill, but they don't win with a tie. The reason that games get endgamed when there is a tie is that there is no way for town to win. However, in 3:3, we still can win - by Haylen redirecting at night. (and, for obvious maths odds reasons, it's better that we rely on Haylen in a post-LYLO mislynch rather than a post-MYLO mislynch).

Hold on, if the mafia make up 50% of the town at any time it is game over right?
We would'nt have a night period after that.

3) Despite her scumminess, Haylen should not be the lynch today unless we all come to an agreement. In reality, if she is town and we mislynch, she is possibly our only hope of making it through the night. If possible, we should find scum elsewhere.

If Haylen is deemed the most likely to be mafia then we should lynch her regardless of her claim and possible night scenarios.

Hmm nothing else I want to comment on or question at the moment..

[subgenius]

3) Despite her scumminess, Haylen should not be the lynch today unless we all come to an agreement. In reality, if she is town and we mislynch, she is possibly our only hope of making it through the night. If possible, we should find scum elsewhere.

If Haylen is deemed the most likely to be mafia then we should lynch her regardless of her claim and possible night scenarios.

I think both of these quotes say pretty much the same thing, but CMAR phrased it in a really wishy-washy way. Basically, "Haylen is scummy, but we shouldn't lynch her today unless everyone else wants to do it, in which case I'm game," versus, "If we find Haylen the most likely to be mafia, we should lynch her." Functionally, I think both of these statements mean almost the same thing, but CMAR's version is a bit scummy to me because rather than making his support of Haylen's lynch contingent upon finding Haylen scummy, he only says he requires a consensus.

One thing I was wondering. So far, the following town PR's have been revealed: sledgehammer, cop, and doctor. That seems like a pretty powerful arsenal of power roles, and I find myself wondering if another PR as potentially powerful as redirector would be included in this setup. This is pure speculation, and I haven't played enough games to have a strong sense of how likely this would be. Even if I had, it would be pure speculation, but this seems like a lot of PR's to me.

[Maxous]

One thing I was wondering. So far, the following town PR's have been revealed: sledgehammer, cop, and doctor. That seems like a pretty powerful arsenal of power roles, and I find myself wondering if another PR as potentially powerful as redirector would be included in this setup. This is pure speculation, and I haven't played enough games to have a strong sense of how likely this would be. Even if I had, it would be pure speculation, but this seems like a lot of PR's to me.

4 scum(presumeably) of which there was 2 killing sources is a strong threat for a 13 person game, hence I could feasibly see the town be a bit more powered than normal to try and get the balance right.

For the record I beleive Haylen's claim, I have no reason not to.
The downside is that it is an alignment neutral role(useful for either side)

[curiouskarmadog]

updating today or tomorrow.

[vollkan]

Hold on, if the mafia make up 50% of the town at any time it is game over right?
We would'nt have a night period after that.

No.

Mafia only tend to win at 50% because usually, once they reach that point, there is no

possible

way for town to win (other than by mafia deliberately playing against their win condition). If Haylen is town, then there is still a possible way for the mafia to lose. Hence, the game shouldn't end.

Better yet:

@Mod:

If mafia make up 50% of the overall living players, do they automatically win even if there is still a possible means for town to win (other than by mafia playing against their own win condition)?

Standard town/sk/mafia win conditions apply

.

One thing I was wondering. So far, the following town PR's have been revealed: sledgehammer, cop, and doctor. That seems like a pretty powerful arsenal of power roles, and I find myself wondering if another PR as potentially powerful as redirector would be included in this setup. This is pure speculation, and I haven't played enough games to have a strong sense of how likely this would be. Even if I had, it would be pure speculation, but this seems like a lot of PR's to me.

I don't think its imbalanced, at least to the point of making me any more skeptical of Haylen's claim than I already am. Especially given that Sledgehammer is a role which is inherently unlikely to be useful (odds of a player being hammer vote * odds of scum targeting that player = low) and, moreover, is unlikely to be a convincing claim (combination of the fact that I've never heard of the role before + it's a claim which is impossible to verify); and that a weak doctor is much less useful as a means of protecting claimed PRs in a setup with two scum factions. Add to that the fact that Haylen's claimed role is only one-shot, and, while the setup is looking PR-heavy, I don't think it is imbalanced.

[vollkan]

EBWOP:

@Mod

I asked you a question in my previous post, but messed up the bold tags.

[Haylen]

@ Subgenius - Balance tends to depend on how powerful the scum are too. Obviously, the mod has an interest in what I would call 'odd' roles. Remember, redirector may be strong, but all one shot abilities are weaker.

The first quote is a lie. You did not announce that you wouldn't use your ability under any circumstances. You suggested that you were planning on saving it for a mylo situation, and you also suggested that you weren't even sure how a lylo would play out in the final sentence of your claim. Nowhere did you mention that you required certainty in your reads before you would feel comfortable using your ability.

You're strawmanning and misrepping. I said that I was going to use my ability during lylo or mylo. It should have been inferred that I would not be willing to use it at any other time. Especially considering my refusal to use it just to confirm my role. And Vollkan should know better than to jump on something that should be obvious to anyone, looking opportunistic.

Nowhere did you mention that you required certainty in your reads before you would feel comfortable using your ability.

With a one shot ability, certainty is a necessity. Put yourself in my position, what would you do if you potentially held the outcome of a game in your hands? In fact, how would you play a one shot role?

I'm thinking Subgenius and Vollkan scumteam. I don't know what to think about whether there's a third mafia because 1 SK and 3 Mafia in a 13 player setup seems a bit heavy to me. And oh hey, if it is mylo/lylo, they're going for the easy target.

no, i have been hesitant about volkan since yesterday....but lets say that I havent mentioned volkan for the entire fucking game..what is your point? and no, it isnt just the "no lynch".

Why are you being so defensive here?

volkan....why did you think no lynch was a good idea?..you are one of the most logical players I have ever played with...explain your thinking here.

Might have been a scumslip. I don't see any reason for anyone who didn't know how many scum there are to know that no lynch is a good idea. Balance wise, I would say we had 2 mafia PR's and an SK. Because 3 mafia and an SK is really heavy.

With 9 alive last night and two confirmed clear essentially as well as ruling herself out that would allow a 1/6 chance of redirecting the kill onto a mafia. With reads and whatnot added to that she should be able to get it to around a 30-50% success rate...

I don't play mafia in a mathematical way. The most I can do is try and balance the roles games, and then I get someone like Neruz/Incog to work out when lylo could occur ect.

2) Preventing S_C for dying allowing another investigation

Why are we blaming Carcin's death on me? Blame it on himself for outting himself so early. To prevent his death, all he needed to do was keep his mouth shut. What I would have needed to have done was correctly guess who is mafia and which of them was going to do the kill. Unfortunately, I cannot catch scum on my own. I thought I'd said previously that my town play is awful but least I'm trying.

The behavior of Yura, the convenience of having a role that provides almost no utility until the end of the game, making things up to explain her night actions... It all rings scum to me.

Yura was a newb. Blame random.org. Who says I'm making things up? I was making it clear that I'm going to use my ability in the most pro-town way I can think of and that anyone who suggests I use my ability to confirm myself is foolish.

oh look you are there....so given this alignment, isnt it also safe to assume scum is here as well?

Disagree. He deserved to be lynched for his play. As did Andrew. If a townie is scummy enough to be lynched then that's their problem, not the rest of the towns.

Bgg could be a godfather btw. If we go by 2 mafia, it would make sense that he'd be NK and Inv immune. I'm reading Andrews flip as him being Inv. immune, by the way. I have no reason to believe that Bgg is town anymore.

Just because I get yelled at for "arguing semantics" it doesn't mean you win the argument.

Don't underestimate the power of semantics. I caught Flayscum and correctly got his role, on day one once because of them.

My read on Max and

Vollkan

is slipping.

Oh hey, distancing alert!

The bolded point - the mafia would'nt usually bother about playing games like that. In normal circumstances of MYLO, the town 'no lynch's', and then mafia kills whoever and then the game goes on.

I've been told by quite a few people that days with even numbers are statistically better for scum. Thus it would make sense that they would no kill. That said, I guessed that quite a few people here would disagree with that, hence why I would consider using my ability during mylo.

For the record, my gut during lylo is surprisingly accurate. Well, my gut in general is pretty accurate but people don't want to listen to it, hence why I love being a power role - people can't argue with me about it, it's all down to what I want to do

Scum Vollkan knows she is town and therefor assumes she is telling the truth or knows she is faking but has a motive for playing along with the claim.

TOWNIES DO NOT LIE ABOUT THEIR ROLE. PERIOD.

Excuse me if I've been emotional, I'm really stressed and pissed off right now.

[bgg1996]

@ Subgenius - Balance tends to depend on how powerful the scum are too. Obviously, the mod has an interest in what I would call 'odd' roles.

You're right, thinking about it, I would have a hard time believing that all scum are goons. Even harder if there are three.
2 scum PRs seems like a very real possibility.

Bgg could be a godfather btw. If we go by 2 mafia, it would make sense that he'd be NK and Inv immune. I'm reading Andrews flip as him being Inv. immune, by the way. I have no reason to believe that Bgg is town anymore.

Anymore?
There wasn't a change between your last post and now. It's already been brought up, so I'm sure that you already knew about the possibility.
If you just realized that Andrew was probably inv. immune, which I agree, he probably was, then why does that make my role more likely to be godfather? If anything, it makes it less likely. And why would I be NK immune? Why does that even matter, now that there is only one mafia? I call scum-slip.

[Haylen]

There wasn't a change between your last post and now. It's already been brought up, so I'm sure that you already knew about the possibility.

I probably read it and forgot. Short term memory capacity is 7 +/- 2. I was reading through and it hit me. I've been treating the setup as I would a newbie game and half forgot that godfathers exist, cause they aren't part of the newbie setups, if that makes sense. Only playing your best in newbie games really takes its toll on your mindset and how you approach games.

If you just realized that Andrew was probably inv. immune, which I agree, he probably was, then why does that make my role more likely to be godfather? If anything, it makes it less likely. And why would I be NK immune? Why does that even matter, now that there is only one mafia? I call scum-slip.

It's called speculation. And all the godfathers I've come across have been investigation immune. I'm thinking of powerful roles the scum might have been given. In a non-open game, I can't remember once believing a cops results weren't marred by godfathers and framers. Oooh! Scum could have a framer!

[Maxous]

@Mod: Was Andrew94 investigation immune?

Role specifics will be provided at the end of the game.

I'm thinking Subgenius and Vollkan scumteam. I don't know what to think about whether there's a third mafia because 1 SK and 3 Mafia in a 13 player setup seems a bit heavy to me. And oh hey, if it is mylo/lylo, they're going for the easy target.

And why are you an easy target?

Bgg could be a godfather btw. If we go by 2 mafia, it would make sense that he'd be NK and Inv immune. I'm reading Andrews flip as him being Inv. immune, by the way. I have no reason to believe that Bgg is town anymore.

You say that as if you're confident Bgg is mafia but you still suspect a 2 man team between Vollkan and Subgenius?
Or are you saying the three of them are?

"No reason to beleive" is a pretty strong statement.

@ Subgenius - Balance tends to depend on how powerful the scum are too. Obviously, the mod has an interest in what I would call 'odd' roles.

You're right, thinking about it, I would have a hard time believing that all scum are goons. Even harder if there are three.
2 scum PRs seems like a very real possibility.

Well, one at least.
I guess something like a framer is possible. I would suspect they have a stalker (a role cop)
One role they are likely not to have is a roleblocker - it would of been easier to negate SC rather than kill him

[bgg1996]

If you just realized that Andrew was probably inv. immune, which I agree, he probably was, then why does that make my role more likely to be godfather? If anything, it makes it less likely. And why would I be NK immune? Why does that even matter, now that there is only one mafia? I call scum-slip.

It's called speculation. And all the godfathers I've come across have been investigation immune. I'm thinking of powerful roles the scum might have been given. In a non-open game, I can't remember once believing a cops results weren't marred by godfathers and framers. Oooh! Scum could have a framer!

While being inv. immune would be completely essential for any possibility of me being a godfather...

NK immunity has no relevance whatsoever, and the only reason I can imagine you even mentioning it now is because that you are one of the scum, and your godfather is NK immune.
That was the point that I was trying to make.

[subgenius]

You're strawmanning and misrepping. I said that I was going to use my ability during lylo or mylo. It should have been inferred that I would not be willing to use it at any other time. Especially considering my refusal to use it just to confirm my role.

Implying is not the same as announcing. You claimed and explained your plans for your power. Plans can and do change, and I see nothing in your claim post that would make me infer that your plans were set in stone.

With a one shot ability, certainty is a necessity. Put yourself in my position, what would you do if you potentially held the outcome of a game in your hands? In fact, how would you play a one shot role?

What I would do with a one-shot power isn't really relevant. You justified your inaction last night by claiming you said something that you never said. I agree that you should be as certain as possible before you use your power, but you didn't say that yesterday as you claim you did.

I'm thinking Subgenius and Vollkan scumteam. I don't know what to think about whether there's a third mafia because 1 SK and 3 Mafia in a 13 player setup seems a bit heavy to me. And oh hey, if it is mylo/lylo, they're going for the easy target.

What are you talking about? Vollkan is voting NL, and I haven't voted anyone. You're certainly near the top of my suspect list, but I'm not sure enough about your lynch at this point to vote for you. In addition, how are you the easy target? Your claim has been enough to make everybody think long and hard about your lynch.

Might have been a scumslip. I don't see any reason for anyone who didn't know how many scum there are to know that no lynch is a good idea. Balance wise, I would say we had 2 mafia PR's and an SK. Because 3 mafia and an SK is really heavy.

Did you miss my post where I provided a link to a mini with SK+3 Maf? 3 mafia is a distinct possibility. IMO it's far more scummy to suggest that we aren't actually at MYLO than to assume a worst case scenario.
[quote="Haylen"

The behavior of Yura, the convenience of having a role that provides almost no utility until the end of the game, making things up to explain her night actions... It all rings scum to me.

Yura was a newb. Blame random.org. Who says I'm making things up? I was making it clear that I'm going to use my ability in the most pro-town way I can think of and that anyone who suggests I use my ability to confirm myself is foolish.[/quote]
Yura was a scummy newb. You know what I'm talking about when I said you're making things up. You addressed it in this same post. I truly don't understand why you aren't interested in confirming yourself, since that would involve redirecting a night kill onto maf. I appreciate the difficulty in this, but confirming yourself and helping town both involve the exact same action in this case. Anyhow, I misunderstood how your ability worked when I questioned why you didn't save S_C. I understand the decision at this point.

Bgg could be a godfather btw. If we go by 2 mafia, it would make sense that he'd be NK and Inv immune. I'm reading Andrews flip as him being Inv. immune, by the way. I have no reason to believe that Bgg is town anymore.

I can understand saying he's not completely clear, because he's not, but we have no reason to even think there is a gf. Yes it's a possibility, but the chances are far far better that it's a valid investigation.

My read on Max and

Vollkan

is slipping.

Oh hey, distancing alert!

If one of them flips scum, this might make sense.

Scum Vollkan knows she is town and therefor assumes she is telling the truth or knows she is faking but has a motive for playing along with the claim.

TOWNIES DO NOT LIE ABOUT THEIR ROLE. PERIOD.

I should have phrased that better. What I was trying to say is that Vollkan's assumption that you're telling the truth leads me to believe that either:
a)He is scum and you are town telling the truth
or
b)You are both scum, so he knows you are lying but has a motive to support the claim.

Bear in mind, Vollkan's explanation for that post made sense, and I don't still hold to this interpretation.

Oooh! Scum could have a framer!

Who gives a crap? The Cop is dead and he got an innocent. Completely irrelevant.

Bandwagon analysis should come tomorrow as well as read of page 41.

Still waiting on this...

[Regfan]

Addressing your cons, the short answer is that I don't think any of them are sufficient to override the above.

To address each individually:
1) We already have bgg's opinion on everything that has transpired so far. His semi-confirmed status means his opinions are probably genuine, but that's really the end of it. Remember: NL always deprives the town of one townie's perspective, but it's still almost uniformly accepted as the best move in MYLO. I may be speaking only for myself here, but I can't conceive of any situation in which, despite his semi-confirmed status, I would trust bgg's judgment over my own.
2) I accept that this is a con; but I don't think night discussion is likely to be sufficiently influential on the day game to override the pros
3) As somebody who has designed a playstyle that pre-commits my vote, I take a particularly dim view of the value of reaction-gauging, let alone so late in a game.
4) Seriously? Given that a Happily Ever After cycle is exceptionally unlikely, the timeframe you are talking about is most likely only the length of a single night phase. I'd be amazed if anybody would lose touch with the game in that time.

1) Completely understandable.
2) I think night discussion plays a bigger part then you're giving it credit for but aruguing over this is trival.
3) I can understand where you're coming from given your play-style but I'm a big fan of reaction testing and pressure voting in certain scenarios so we're going to have to agree to disagree with this con.
4) I've seen far too many games end in mafia wins purely due to the fact that town nl'ing too often when they shouldn't have.

I'm thinking Subgenius and Vollkan scumteam. I don't know what to think about whether there's a third mafia because 1 SK and 3 Mafia in a 13 player setup seems a bit heavy to me. And oh hey, if it is mylo/lylo, they're going for the easy target.

Unless I'm mistaken you haven't showed any signs of suspicion against either of these two up until this post, yet in this post you show strength in the FoS. Can you explain what changed exactly to make you drop your previous FoS's and take up this one.

Why are we blaming Carcin's death on me? Blame it on himself for outting himself so early. To prevent his death, all he needed to do was keep his mouth shut. What I would have needed to have done was correctly guess who is mafia and which of them was going to do the kill. Unfortunately, I cannot catch scum on my own. I thought I'd said previously that my town play is awful but least I'm trying.

The death in itself isn't your fault, nor is it S_C's his claim prevented a msylnch occuring on Bgg, what bothers me is that you didn't seem to 'think through' the benefits of using your power last night.

I'm not undestanding the possible specutlation and paranoia over Bgg, even if there's a godfather in the setup Bgg's play doesn't represent that of a general godfather play. In addition to that his eagerness to see the result of the previous nights kill reads as a massive town-tell in it's ownright. If he was mafia he would know what role S_C was and that S_C would be dying thus having no reason to stay up anticipating the result. Due to the fact my primary FoS throughout the game is dead, I'm going to have to do some re-reading none of my current reads are strong in any right though I may as well lay them out.

Bgg - Town

.

Maxous - Leaningtown:

My read on him seems to be flip-flopping throughout the game, though the only thing I've seen him do that I find suspicious is place the vote on CMAR during the middle of yesterday.

Sub_genius - Leaningtown:

His play has been consistently pro-town, that along with the fact he's shown no real signs of fencesitting or opportunistic scum play makes me believe he's town.

Volkan - Null:

Still unable to find anything in particular that sways my view of his allignment.

Haylen - Uh:

I'm not even going to attempt to state a read for her now, Ive been flip flopping opinion with nearly every post she makes, I'll ISO and read into her later today and state my thoughts then.

curiouskarmadog: SlightLeaningScum:

I can't shake my earlier opinion of him, with that said since then all of his post have been very constructive and I'm unable to find fault in them.

CryMeARiver - LeaningScum:

I haven't found any real pro-town motives from any of his posts nor from his predecessors, with that said I'll await his 'big incoming post'.

[vollkan]

I'm thinking Subgenius and Vollkan scumteam. I don't know what to think about whether there's a third mafia because 1 SK and 3 Mafia in a 13 player setup seems a bit heavy to me. And oh hey, if it is mylo/lylo, they're going for the easy target.

2 problems with this, aside from what's already been said:
1) I'm not "going for you". I'm going for NL and, even if I wasn't, I'd be going for CMAR.
2) Implying that this (though, I'm not sure what "this" is, since I'm not "going for you") is late-game opportunism on my part entirely ignores my entire history of suspecting your slot

My read on Max and

Vollkan

is slipping.

Oh hey, distancing alert!

The fact that you could have equally said the Maxous comment was distancing only demonstrates that you are now playing under confirmation bias.

[curiouskarmadog]

If we NL and bgg-town is killed:

Pros:

1) Alignment confirmation

Cons:

1) We lose bgg's opinion

Verdict

Pros > Cons

Whose alignment is confirmed? Bgg?..who the fuck cares if his alignment is confirm if he is dead..beside, in my book he is already confirmed (ie SC). There is no point no lynching today…a lot of things can happen and I would like to have one confirmed town with us as long as possible.

You have got to be scum..you know there is no point in no lynching today.

If we NL today….bgg will be killed..and we will be exactly where we are no, down a confirmed townie…so, no, NL IS A BAD IDEA.

Volkan - I understand that NL'ing would allow validation and confirmation of Bgg's role, but is that really needed? On top of that you're ignoring and forgetting multiple other cons that are caused by a no lynch.

This……

Vollkan is an incredible player and I don’t believe he can just boil a no lynch down like that..

I am also not surprised that vollkan is defending haylen…I for one don’t believe the claim.

Disclaimer: It is not necessarily MYLO. I could easily see only 2 scum since they get an extra NK through the SK. But we assume the worst situation of course.

1) We of course lynch today. We would have a chance to lynch mafia during the day. If we leave the kill up to mafia at night, there is absolutely no chance (besides the small chance that Haylen redirected the kill to scum which is only possible if a) Haylen is town b) Haylen chose scum at night c) Haylen chose the scum that made the NK and d) Haylen redirected that scumkill onto another scum - highly unlikely). Chance scum dies > No chance scum dies. Even if we mislynch, we have a chance to make it through the night with Haylen's redirect or any other PR hindering the scum kill.

2) S_C got an innocent on Bgg. While Bgg is likely town (despite my dislike of her scummy play), there is a chance that he is investigation immune and we cannot regard him as a clear in situations like this when town could possibly lose depending on the lynch. Now of course we listen to his reads and he is not the lynch for today, but he is not clear.

What? The only reason I am for NOT “no lynching” is because I feel that bgg is mostly confirmed town…now, if you really felt that bgg COULD BE scum, then a NO LYNCH DOES MAKE SENSE….

So lets say bgg is not confirmed town..how is it a good idea to lynch today? have you ever been in a game where the town no lynched on purpose?..why did they do that?

no, i have been hesitant about volkan since yesterday....but lets say that I havent mentioned volkan for the entire fucking game..what is your point? and no, it isnt just the "no lynch".

Why are you being so defensive here?

how is this is ANY WAY DEFENSIVE?...but lets say i was being defensive...I mean super super defensive...

so what? the question was valid.

volkan....why did you think no lynch was a good idea?..you are one of the most logical players I have ever played with...explain your thinking here.

Might have been a scumslip. I don't see any reason for anyone who didn't know how many scum there are to know that no lynch is a good idea. Balance wise, I would say we had 2 mafia PR's and an SK. Because 3 mafia and an SK is really heavy.
[/quote]
way to "ignore" my point. please explain to me the theory as to why we should off no lynch right now...after that, given that we have a confirmed town player with us right the fuck now, tell me what your best guess is on who will be killed. how are we ANY BETTER OFF? we are not...

then answer me this...given that we have a confirmed town player...WHO WOULD BE CHOMPING AT THE BIT TO not only say a.) "bgg could be investigation immune", but b.) we should no lynch.

Vote vollkan.

i love you man, but you are scum in this game and I got you

[curiouskarmadog]

mod, please fix my tags.

Aside from the lone "[/quote]" I do not see where the problem is. If you want to repost a corrected version I will edit your original post and remove the corrected version you provide.

[bgg1996]

The advantage that you guys would get from NLing and me dying is related to the chance that I am scum.
Since I'm cleared by a cop, the only remaining option is godfather, or town roles. I think there's three scum, personally, so I'm going to go with that. If there is a godfather, the chance that I am he would be 1/6, assuming 3 scum, because there would be 1 godfather, 2 scum roles, and 5 town roles. I can't be scum, so 1/6. Now that's assuming that there is a godfather left. I'm not sure how to calculate the exact probability, but since I'm assuming that there is at the very least 1 scum PR, and there are 15 different scum PRs on that one list, since the godfather is more common I'll count it as two, and guess that the probability of a mafia godfather is around 1/8. 1/8*1/6 is 1/48. I have a 1/48 chance to be scum, with the following assumptions:
*The chance that there is a godfather is around 1/8.
*There are three scum left.
*There are no millers or framers.


Without factoring in anything other than the cop clear, the odds of me being scum are exactly 1/48.
That equates to 02.083%.
That would make your odds... harder to calculate.

Okay, I have it now. Without factoring in anything else, with the current assumptions, you are 42.857% likely to be scum, each.

2.083%
42.857%

You are all over twenty times as likely too be scum than me. But you aren't cleared.

Actually, that isn't right. At all.

That would only be for an outside observer.
For me, I'm cleared, and you all are 3/7 likely to be scum.

For another town role, like most of you, and all of you pretending, it's different.
There would be me and 6 others. You are cleared with the town role. I have 1/5 times 1/8 gives me 1/40.
You have 0% chance for yourself.
For you, I have 2.5% chance to be scum
49.583% chance for the rest to be scum.

0% you
2.5% me
49.583% others

In other terms, roll a 20-sided die. If it comes up 20, flip a coin. If that coin flips heads, I'm scum. For each and everybody else, flip a coin. If it comes up heads, call them scum. (I like this analogy)
By my estimation, I'm still almost twenty times less likely to be scum than somebody else.



How much would my death help you?
I would go as far to say as that it is

impossible

that I will be lynched tomorrow. It won't help. At all.

[subgenius]

The advantage that you guys would get from NLing and me dying is related to the chance that I am scum.

It's also related to how much of a help you're being in helping us find scum, which is approximately nil right now. I don't want to lynch you or see you NK'd, but I'm not seeing much value in these probability arguments.

PS Another day passes with no word from CMAR.

[bgg1996]

As if I haven't contributed... phhhhmph!

[vollkan]

If we NL and bgg-town is killed:
Pros:
1) Alignment confirmation
Cons:
1) We lose bgg's opinion
Verdict
Pros > Cons

Whose alignment is confirmed? Bgg?..who the fuck cares if his alignment is confirm if he is dead..beside, in my book he is already confirmed (ie SC). There is no point no lynching today…a lot of things can happen and I would like to have one confirmed town with us as long as possible.

As I said when Regfan asked me basically the same question:

1) We already have bgg's opinion on everything that has transpired so far. His semi-confirmed status means his opinions are probably genuine, but that's really the end of it. Remember: NL always deprives the town of one townie's perspective, but it's still almost uniformly accepted as the best move in MYLO. I may be speaking only for myself here, but I can't conceive of any situation in which, despite his semi-confirmed status, I would trust bgg's judgment over my own.

You can chant "he's semi-confirmed town" again and again, but in practical terms it doesn't mean anything more than that his opinions are probably genuine. The point isn't that I think he is likely to be scum, it's that faced with the negligible value of his opinion versus the likely negligible value of his confirmation, I'm going to go with the certainty that comes from a confirmation. Not to mention the other pros I've already discussed in the event that somebody other than bgg is targeted.

I am also not surprised that vollkan is defending haylen…I for one don’t believe the claim.

Quote for me please where I have defended Haylen.

On that contrary, I've said numerous times that I think she is still more likely scum than not - but my score on CMAR is sufficiently high that I am not going to vote a claimed power role over him. I can also imagine this in the reverse, and that if I was voting Haylen over CMAR, people would be attacking me for "voting the claimed power role".