Mini 1140 - Mafia Mishmash...Game Over!!

[vollkan]

N3- One-shot tracker ability. Target Hinduragi. He visited Scott last night.

Vote: Hinduragi

If there happens to be a third I would suggest Vollkan for his 'CMAR' claim complicates things, I dunno if I

This statement is unusually equivocal for you, Vollkan. You want to say he's scummy, but then you mention his claim affects your opinion, then you say that there's a good chance that he's lying about it anyway. You don't want to NL, but who are you thinking you want to lynch?

Both of you are misunderstanding me.

I was clear yesterday that CMAR was my second suspect after Haylen (both being behind NL). When I said that his claim complicated things, all I meant was in the sense of "hence, why I am not voting him instantly". It's no different to how everybody else, despite declaring suspicion for CMAR, was unwilling to vote him right off the bat. The fact that I explicitly acknowledged my position (which, given my stance yesterday, I uniquely had to), shouldn't alter that at all.

Also, claim

Vanilla

[Regfan]

I'm slightly hesitant to hammer here, this is a position where mafia bussing causes them to lose due to Maxous being able to RB tonight yet Vollkan and Subgenius voted along so quickly. I need to do some thinking, something isn't adding up.

[subgenius]

Vollkan already hammered. The reason we haven't gotten a flip yet is that the mod is V/LA until this evening.

I think we're in good shape. I trust Max's claim, and based on your response, I think you do too. I agree that bussing would be a poor decision for maf at this point, which leads me to think that Hindu is actually the final scum and maybe we've already won. Or maybe Max hoodwinked us and we've already lost. Or maybe Vollkan saw the writing on the wall and decided to go along with it in hopes of finding a way to survive tomorrow. In any case, the lynch has already been decided.

I will say that I think mafia would have three members if town has doc, cop, JoAT, and sledgehammer. Anything less seems imbalanced in the town's favor.

[Regfan]

Didn't realize that was a hammer, my bad.

I will say that I think mafia would have three members if town has doc, cop, JoAT, and sledgehammer. Anything less seems imbalanced in the town's favor.

My thoughts entirely.

[Maxous]

Hmm remember that there was a SK in this game.

Imagine we did'nt lynch Andrew until day 3 or 4!

Anyway we'll wait for the moderator..

[subgenius]

I haven't played a lot of mafia, but I'm basing my assumption entirely on my experience in my previous game, which is the only other game I've played with an SK.

The set up was:
Scum: SK + 1 mafia goon, 1 mafia watcher, 1 mafia doctor
Town: Tracker + 2 Masons + 6 vanilla

Not only were there 3 mafia and an SK, but two of the mafia players were PR's and the town only had a handful of fairly weak PR's. Town never lynched the SK, so we had 2 deaths every night. Even so, town had a chance to take the win at the end of the game.

There was some complaining in the post-game about the game being imbalanced against the town, though.

[havingfitz]

Votecount 4.1

With 6 players left it takes 4 to lynch.

Hinduragi - 1 (Maxous, bgg1996, subgenius, vollkan)

Maxous - 1 (Hinduragi)

Not voting: (Regfan)

That's 4...that's a lynch.

---

As the town wondered whether Hinduragi was scum...whether Maxous' claim was legitimate...whether the mod would ever return, the mod wondered what would be a good flavor to end the day with. How about another scoop of Mafia?

Hinduragi -

Mafia Goon

has been lynched.

Night 4 deadline is 2200 EST, May 6th. If you have night actions please submit them before the night ends.

[havingfitz]

Is that it? Did we get rid of all the mafia? Maybe we did. Let's hope Hinduragi was the last of it. A victory for town would be sweet!

Apparently not everyone agrees with this sentiment.....

bgg1996,

Vanilla Town

is dead.

Things are getting down to the wire. With 4 players left it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline is 1200 est, Friday May 20th.

[subgenius]

There are two possibilities as I see it:

1. Maxous is telling the truth, and he role blocked Vollkan, which makes me mafia since a kill went through.
2. Maxous is mafia. He fake claimed and bussed Hindu.

Are there any other possibilities that I'm missing?

Clearly, I'm a proponent of option number two. It appears that the rest is up to regfan and vollkan. I'll wait until they weigh in to see how they want to handle this.

[Maxous]

Okay..Regfan does not have a gun(Gunsmith ability). Bgg was shot.
So it can't be him.

I used my roleblocking ability last night on Vollkan. It prevents the target from carrying out any night action. I presume this includes night kills(confirm?).
As we went over earlier, re-direction abilities is not allowed.
So it can't be Vollkan that killed Bgg.

Process of elimination means that the remaining mafia is subgenius.

I can't think of anything other than the two possibilities that the above post mentions as long as roleblocking includes prevention of night kills.

[subgenius]

I'm slightly hesitant to hammer here, this is a position where mafia bussing causes them to lose due to Maxous being able to RB tonight yet Vollkan and Subgenius voted along so quickly. I need to do some thinking, something isn't adding up.

I haven't done anything near a full re-read yet, partially because I realize that anything I say at this point is bound to be taken with a large grain of salt, but Regfan nailed it here. I didn't think so at the time, because I believed Max's claim, but Regfan was right. Vollkan and I both voted very quickly despite the fact that if either of us was a mafia member lynching our partner, we would be almost guaranteeing ourselves a loss. We both voted quickly, because we both believed the claim and saw a town win coming out of it. This would not be the likely mafia response when faced with a town PR claim with a guilty against a partner. A bit of WIFOM, I admit, but Regfan spotted it before night even fell.

[vollkan]

I am currently very slightly leaning to SubG being scum, but I'm going to have to reread because I have almost nothing to differentiate Maxous and SubG.

The reason I am leaning to it being SubG is that, if Maxous was gambiting scum, it would be against his interests to effectively declare Regfan innocent. By doing so, he has lowered the lynch field today from 3 (SubG, Maxous and Regfan) to just two (Maxous and SubG). This is obviously WIFOMy, and I have no intention of voting on it, though.

I'm slightly hesitant to hammer here, this is a position where mafia bussing causes them to lose due to Maxous being able to RB tonight yet Vollkan and Subgenius voted along so quickly. I need to do some thinking, something isn't adding up.

I haven't done anything near a full re-read yet, partially because I realize that anything I say at this point is bound to be taken with a large grain of salt, but Regfan nailed it here. I didn't think so at the time, because I believed Max's claim, but Regfan was right. Vollkan and I both voted very quickly despite the fact that if either of us was a mafia member lynching our partner, we would be almost guaranteeing ourselves a loss. We both voted quickly, because we both believed the claim and saw a town win coming out of it. This would not be the likely mafia response when faced with a town PR claim with a guilty against a partner. A bit of WIFOM, I admit, but Regfan spotted it before night even fell.

There's one major problem with this: you only voted Hindu (1274) after Maxous had declared his intention to RB me (1273). Further, in 1251 Maxous indicated that he thought I was the third scum because of my "CMAR's claim complicates things post" (which you agreed with and said you had forgotten to post: 1253). In which case, I doubt SubG-scum would have fought against the claim, since it would have outed you as scum. Instead, it would make perfect sense for you to play along with it.

[subgenius]

There's one major problem with this: you only voted Hindu (1274) after Maxous had declared his intention to RB me (1273). Further, in 1251 Maxous indicated that he thought I was the third scum because of my "CMAR's claim complicates things post" (which you agreed with and said you had forgotten to post: 1253). In which case, I doubt SubG-scum would have fought against the claim, since it would have outed you as scum. Instead, it would make perfect sense for you to play along with it.

I waited to vote until a plan had been settled upon because I didn't want night to fall without an agreed plan in place. I believed Max's claim, so it made no difference to me whether he RB'd you or me. Either option would have won us the game if Max was telling the truth. The "CMAR's claim complicates things" was actually a factor in convincing me that Max's claim was credible. Max's claim proved you to be scum (at least from my perspective) and the quote also made you look scummy aside from that. The claim and the quote were mutually reinforcing in my eyes.

As far as saying that playing along with Max's claim makes perfect sense for scum, I think you'd have to admit that it also makes perfect sense for town, since you made the same decision, and it is now clear that you are town.

One thing from last night that strikes me as strange is that bgg was killed rather than Regfan. I don't think anyone will disagree when I say that Regfan has been the stronger player, so why is he still alive? I think it is because Regfan never claimed, and it's possible that his flip could have contradicted Max's claim. If Regfan had flipped paranoid gun owner, some sort of unused vig role, or some other gun-owning town role, it would have been obvious that Max was lying. He killed the safer target, the one who had no chance of contradicting his claim, bgg1996.

[vollkan]

I waited to vote until a plan had been settled upon because I didn't want night to fall without an agreed plan in place. I believed Max's claim, so it made no difference to me whether he RB'd you or me. Either option would have won us the game if Max was telling the truth. The "CMAR's claim complicates things" was actually a factor in convincing me that Max's claim was credible. Max's claim proved you to be scum (at least from my perspective) and the quote also made you look scummy aside from that. The claim and the quote were mutually reinforcing in my eyes.

As far as saying that playing along with Max's claim makes perfect sense for scum, I think you'd have to admit that it also makes perfect sense for town, since you made the same decision, and it is now clear that you are town.

That's all fair enough, but it does refute your previous claim that your action was not the likely mafia response. Your behaviour around the claim is basically a nulltell

One thing from last night that strikes me as strange is that bgg was killed rather than Regfan. I don't think anyone will disagree when I say that Regfan has been the stronger player, so why is he still alive? I think it is because Regfan never claimed, and it's possible that his flip could have contradicted Max's claim. If Regfan had flipped paranoid gun owner, some sort of unused vig role, or some other gun-owning town role, it would have been obvious that Max was lying. He killed the safer target, the one who had no chance of contradicting his claim, bgg1996.

The only reason I can see for Maxous-scum not killing Regfan is that, having declared Regfan gun-free, Maxous-scum may have felt that Regfan would be more disposed to see Maxous-scum as innocent. But that's obviously pretty weak

[subgenius]

That's all fair enough, but it does refute your previous claim that your action was not the likely mafia response. Your behaviour around the claim is basically a nulltell

The first point wasn't necessarily to argue that going along with the claim wasn't the likely mafia response but to provide an account of my thought process, which was town. You seemed to think that voting only after Max announced he would RB you was scummy, so I explained why I waited and why I mentioned your quote about CMAR. Obviously, there wouldn't be much difference in the actions of scum Sub and town Sub yesterday (although I do think there would have been room for scum Sub to resist Maxous's claim if he chose to), but I hope that explaining the thoughts behind the actions will be helpful in convincing you that I had town motivations.

The only reason I can see for Maxous-scum not killing Regfan is that, having declared Regfan gun-free, Maxous-scum may have felt that Regfan would be more disposed to see Maxous-scum as innocent. But that's obviously pretty weak

That is also a possibility, but I think the lack of a claim from Regfan also had something to do with it.

[Maxous]

One thing from last night that strikes me as strange is that bgg was killed rather than Regfan. I don't think anyone will disagree when I say that Regfan has been the stronger player, so why is he still alive? I think it is because Regfan never claimed, and it's possible that his flip could have contradicted Max's claim. If Regfan had flipped paranoid gun owner, some sort of unused vig role, or some other gun-owning town role, it would have been obvious that Max was lying. He killed the safer target, the one who had no chance of contradicting his claim, bgg1996.

Bgg did'nt claim :/

[Maxous]

The reason I am leaning to it being SubG is that, if Maxous was gambiting scum, it would be against his interests to effectively declare Regfan innocent. By doing so, he has lowered the lynch field today from 3 (SubG, Maxous and Regfan) to just two (Maxous and SubG). This is obviously WIFOMy, and I have no intention of voting on it, though.

By the way if I was scum I could of simply claimed tracker and nothing else and kept the lynch possibilities to all 4 players.

[subgenius]

Bgg did'nt claim :/

Yeah, but bgg's role was completely irrelevant to your claim. You had no stake in his flip.

[subgenius]

The reason I am leaning to it being SubG is that, if Maxous was gambiting scum, it would be against his interests to effectively declare Regfan innocent. By doing so, he has lowered the lynch field today from 3 (SubG, Maxous and Regfan) to just two (Maxous and SubG). This is obviously WIFOMy, and I have no intention of voting on it, though.

By the way if I was scum I could of simply claimed tracker and nothing else and kept the lynch possibilities to all 4 players.

I really don't see this as compelling. From your perspective, it doesn't matter how many people are cleared or not as long as the town believes your claim. Whether there are 1, 2, or 3 possible lynch targets today is irrelevant as long as you aren't one of them.

[Maxous]

I'm pretty sure if Regfan has a role that involves a gun he would of called me out on it in the last day period

[subgenius]

I'm pretty sure if Regfan has a role that involves a gun he would of called me out on it in the last day period

Yeah, that's a fair point. I hadn't thought about that. It's possible that you're a mafia gun smith. Such a role could have been included to help mafia catch the cop. In that case, you would have known Regfan was unarmed. Or maybe you just picked an investigative role and took your chances. I don't know.

I would like Regfan and Vollkan to both think about how appealing a role claim and bus would be from scum's perspective yesterday.
1. Going into yesterday, scum knew that they only needed to get one more mislynch out of the town. It didn't matter if it happened D4 or D5. As long as town is lynched at any point, scum wins.
2. CMAR/Hindu had clearly drawn a lot of suspicion, and at the end of D3, Regfan and I both named Max as also suspicious. Scum had time to discuss this during the night before Max's claim and plan their strategy.
3. Think about how well a false claim followed by a bus for "confirmation" of the role with the intention of mislynching a townie the following day represents a winning strategy for a scum pair that is entering a MYLO day knowing that they are probably going to be the two leading suspects.

[Regfan]

Unfortunatly I'm flooded with university work and keeping up with other games at the moment. I won't be ablt to do too much reading through of this thread for another two or three days.

[vollkan]

The first point wasn't necessarily to argue that going along with the claim wasn't the likely mafia response but to provide an account of my thought process, which was town. You seemed to think that voting only after Max announced he would RB you was scummy, so I explained why I waited and why I mentioned your quote about CMAR. Obviously, there wouldn't be much difference in the actions of scum Sub and town Sub yesterday (although I do think there would have been room for scum Sub to resist Maxous's claim if he chose to), but I hope that explaining the thoughts behind the actions will be helpful in convincing you that I had town motivations.

It doesn't convince me that you had town motivations, but it at least explains something that on its face looks scummy.

I would like Regfan and Vollkan to both think about how appealing a role claim and bus would be from scum's perspective yesterday.
1. Going into yesterday, scum knew that they only needed to get one more mislynch out of the town. It didn't matter if it happened D4 or D5. As long as town is lynched at any point, scum wins.
2. CMAR/Hindu had clearly drawn a lot of suspicion, and at the end of D3, Regfan and I both named Max as also suspicious. Scum had time to discuss this during the night before Max's claim and plan their strategy.
3. Think about how well a false claim followed by a bus for "confirmation" of the role with the intention of mislynching a townie the following day represents a winning strategy for a scum pair that is entering a MYLO day knowing that they are probably going to be the two leading suspects.

But, equally, I doubt Maxous-scum would have been under any illusion that his bussing would clear him. After playing this game for so long now, he couldn't have expected to be considered confirmed town by virtue of gambiting. Of course, it would still have been the best move in his position (at least as far as neutralising any allegation of him being linked to Hindu). I agree it places him in a better position and so makes sense as a scum strategy, but not enough that I consider it a scumtell...if that makes sense.

[vollkan]

I'm pretty sure if Regfan has a role that involves a gun he would of called me out on it in the last day period

Not if he felt that there were benefits in not claiming (eg. if he was a PGO). But anyway, it doesn't seem like a risk that Maxous-scum would realistically need to be worried about (the odds of a town gun role being in a game are slim)

[subgenius]

But, equally, I doubt Maxous-scum would have been under any illusion that his bussing would clear him. After playing this game for so long now, he couldn't have expected to be considered confirmed town by virtue of gambiting.

That's why I put "confirmation" in quotation marks. Clearly, he isn't confirmed, but he doesn't have to be. He only has to be credible enough to lead the town to mislynch one person. Bussing his partner contributed to that credibility just as clearing Regfan contributed to that credibility.

Still haven't done a full re-read, but just noticed another point:

Bgg could be a godfather btw. If we go by 2 mafia, it would make sense that he'd be NK and Inv immune. I'm reading Andrews flip as him being Inv. immune, by the way. I have no reason to believe that Bgg is town anymore.

Disclaimer: It is not necessarily MYLO. I could easily see only 2 scum since they get an extra NK through the SK. But we assume the worst situation of course.

As I outlined to Refgan the Haylen and CMAR mentioned the idea of having 2 mafia a bit too often which leads me to beleive there is only 2.

All three mafia have been pushing the idea of there only being two mafia. Whether these posts were meant to be fake town slips or lull the town into lynching without thinking the game is on the line, I don't know, but it is definitely a common thread running through all three of them that I haven't seen much of from any of the town players. In any case, by the end of the game, Max was the only one who was still suggesting there were only two mafia in the set up. The town players all correctly concluded that balance demanded three.

Is it more likely that Max was an experienced town player mistaken about the setup or that he is an experienced scum player who was knowingly planting a town slip?