Mini 1310: I Got My Eye On You Mafia (Game Over!)

[Hoopla]

I think my thoughts are pretty well categorized in the Mafia QT so I'll keep this short.

The fact that this game continued after Day 2 is beyond me.

1. Mod screws up and jumbles around role PMs. When this is discovered the solution of "Oh, let's just add another Town Sane Cop" the the set-up being the decision is mind boggling. Especially given that scum had Goon / RoleCop / Tracker. I'd like to see if Mr. Flay and Hoopla actually do agree that this was their decision regarding the error. 1 Sane Cop in a Set-up is generally powerful. Two in a game with no scum way to counter-act except with Death (no Roleblocker or Godfather for a false clear) is so out of balance I'm amazed it continued. The proper decision would have been to force-replace Amrun and give her replacement the VT role PM.
2. Then we have said roles being Mod confirmed (and they were ... clear as Day when I actually read the thread) and the subsquent confirmed Town clears that created further made the game irreparably damaged.

Had I been reading through the game before I chose to replace in (which I only did to help out post-crash) I would never have taken the slot.

Otherwise congratulations to Town I guess.

To clarify my thoughts on the messy situation.

There were only two real options available: force-replacing Amrun and getting a new player into that slot with the original role PM that was supposed to be sent OR leave the setup as the roles were sent out. Neither option is clean, but you need to consider how the game would be compromised in each situation.

I'd normally suggest force-replacement, but the thing that made it difficult was the fact that Amrun claimed Cop on Day 1, which means the new player now gets caught in a lie and lynched OR the mod has to come into the game and confirm there was a mistake and that player becomes confirmed town.

If we leave the setup as it was sent, nobody should be the wiser - the setup would have a second Cop, but given the theme, typical counterclaiming traps shouldn't apply, as it'd be more than reasonable to expect multiple investigation roles. This is a far less invasive solution and although it's unfair for the scum, it was the outcome that hurt the game least overall. This was mostly my decision, with a bit of input from mith, so the blame can be leveled at me if there needs to be a culprit.

As an aside, Cop/Voyeur/Miller vs a mafia team with two PR's is horribly scum-sided, which also slightly factored into the decision. I'd still even go so far as to say mafia would be advantaged in this setup against Cop/Cop/Voyeur/Miller, but that's a side-point.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'd still even go so far as to say mafia would be advantaged in this setup against Cop/Cop/Voyeur/Miller, but that's a side-point.

Then frankly I don't understand your thinking on any level. Two scum Powerroles that can only find Town Powerroles are hardly a balance for two Cops who can claim Day 2 and immediately PoE the scum. If there was a roleblocker then sure I might be convinced in your argument. But as it stands RoleCop and Tracker both stand out like a sore thumb. As it stands fake-claiming Follower as Rolecop still got PoEd via balance.

The set-up as it stood was terribly unbalanced towards Town. The later Mod error confirming the Cops only magnified this issue.

[Hoopla]

I don't know what happened with the mod confirming the Cops, so I can't comment much beyond the cosmetic, but given you have two PR's to find the Cops, a chance of having them be forced to claim upon being wagoned D1, and then a chance that they might counterclaim one another, one not be believed, or just get lucky with a shot N1 (with no Doc), or even them hitting the Miller - there is plenty of safety built into the setup for you to have safely eliminated both Cops before they PoE the game.

I did some data collection on the old 3:9 setups in regards to Cop survival, because like now, people back then also overvalued the power of the Cop, and only one in three made it to Day 3 (a stage where they could have a maximum of two confirmed players) - again, this doesn't factor in your other targets being lynched or killed before you can claim them. The odds of two Cops being both alive on D3 with two separate (non-Miller) investigations (that are still live) is extremely low. If scum hadn't deduced a Cop on D1, had one be run up and claimed, catch one with either of the PR-finders N1, get lucky and hit one with the kill, and then the same again on D2, then I think that is either scum's fault or plain unlucky.

I don't know what happened in this game, but if the Cops were confirmed by the mod (how did this happen?) then that sucks for scum - maybe it would have been easier if that didn't happen.

[Korlash]

If you really had a brain you would have killed me over Korlash any day, and you wouldn't have considered killing RD instead of me.

Except I wouldn't have needed an investigation to catch him... *cough*

And what do you mean 'not even considered'? I think that alone would qualify as not having a brain. Keeping a cop alive is always a good thing to consider as scum since it's unexpected and thus could potentially lead to a victory...

I'm a little disappointed this wasn't a team run 'plan' but more of a thing that just 'came about'. I think if you guys had discussed it a little more it might have become obvious which of you needed to live. Still, being unable to claim 'rb' late game would most likely have still lead to your downfall...

I am curious, why did MoI get a vanilla town read on RD?

[Korlash]

I don't know what happened with the mod confirming the Cops, so I can't comment much beyond the cosmetic, but given you have two PR's to find the Cops, a chance of having them be forced to claim upon being wagoned D1, and then a chance that they might counterclaim one another, one not be believed, or just get lucky with a shot N1 (with no Doc), or even them hitting the Miller - there is plenty of safety built into the setup for you to have safely eliminated both Cops before they PoE the game.

This ^ You can't judge the setup purely on how it turned out. I do think flipping the cops as 'sane cop' was a bad move as it robs the idea of sanity which scum should have been able to use. So that seems to be the only setup flaw.

And I still argue the cop wasn't mod confirmed since the presence of a role cop explained it way. He could have just as easily confirmed you MoI (had you fakeclaimed cop) and we'd be the ones whining about it.

I don't know what happened in this game, but if the Cops were confirmed by the mod (how did this happen?) then that sucks for scum - maybe it would have been easier if that didn't happen.

One cop had gotten the wrong type of result and the mod corrected it in thread instead of via pm. An accepted form of confirmedness that confirmed one of them and by default their results...

[Hoopla]

My conclusion: Voidedmafia, you need to pay more attention to what you're doing...

[Faraday]

even them hitting the Miller - there is plenty of safety built into the setup for you to have safely eliminated both Cops before they PoE the game.

Except a miller isn't a negative in this set-up, is it? At least not for the cops. It gives the cops a greater chance of getting an accurate investigation since site meta is so strongly towards the miller claiming day 1, so no cop is going to investigate a claimed miller.

[Hoopla]

Did the Miller claim on D1?

My conclusion: more scum need to start fakeclaiming Miller D1.

[Rainbowdash]

Did the Miller claim on D1?

My conclusion: more scum need to start fakeclaiming Miller D1.

Yeah miller claimed which I didnt like since I think miller should NOT claim miller but thats a different thing entirely. I think dropping RC for GF with the second cop blanaced it better because it gave some sort of a defense against really bad luck with cops to scum. While chance of them running over the game was low, it could have happened.

Also its probably a fair point from me to say im not sure exactly how the cops got confirmed. Just seemd like everypony thought they did so I just let it go since if they were it was just going to make them all that much harder for scum to get away dealing with.

[Korlash]

Now we're getting into weird speculation. Ignoring the suspicion a claimed miller gets (and got) in this type of setup, there still existed a chance of the cops wasting investigations on said miller to test sanity or to test their own claim.

I can agree taking site meta into setup creation is important, but then if you give the role to someone who doesn't know site meta it backfires and your setup suddenly goes askew. To completely biased you should base the setup on the role itself, not how 'most people' choose to use it. And conventional wisdom should consider miller to be a negative on a cop...

[Hoopla]

I think dropping RC for GF with the second cop blanaced it better because it gave some sort of a defense against really bad luck with cops to scum. While chance of them running over the game was low, it could have happened.

For sure. I wouldn't design a setup with two Cops and not give them a GF or maybe a RB, but I don't think it was overwhelming. Did any VT's get confirmed by a Cop or was there GF speculation on an innocent? That seems like a pretty obv play from a scum perspective - keep the innocent alive.

[Korlash]

My conclusion: more scum need to start fakeclaiming Miller D1.

Aye, if a scum had fakeclaimed miller day one and lasted until the cop screw up, the symmetry of two millers and two cops would likely have confirmed said scum. When the first scum died and flipped as 'sane cop' it might even have added in speculation of a cop based miller, i.e. one miller is for the sane cop, one for the insane. (would die once second cop dies but still...)

Also its probably a fair point from me to say im not sure exactly how the cops got confirmed. Just seemd like everypony thought they did so I just let it go since if they were it was just going to make them all that much harder for scum to get away dealing with.

As if I didn't like you enough already... =D

For sure. I wouldn't design a setup with two Cops and not give them a GF or maybe a RB, but I don't think it was overwhelming. Did any VT's get confirmed by a Cop or was there GF speculation on an innocent? That seems like a pretty obv play from a scum perspective - keep the innocent alive.

Me and AD both. There was GF speculation but once the cop was killed over the 'tracker' it was obvious a GF didn't exist.

[IceGuy]

Yeah miller claimed which I didnt like since I think miller should NOT claim miller but thats a different thing entirely.

Why?

[Korlash]

Aye, if a scum had fakeclaimed miller day one and lasted until the cop screw up, the symmetry of two millers and two cops could likely have confirmed said scum. When the first cop died and flipped as 'sane cop' it might even have added in speculation of a cop based miller, i.e. one miller is for the sane cop, one for the insane. (would die once second cop dies but still...)

Sorry... I'm uh, doing laundret at the moment... >.> *cough* have a bit of a cough... You're seeing things *waves hand*

[Rainbowdash]

Yeah miller claimed which I didnt like since I think miller should NOT claim miller but thats a different thing entirely.

Why?

I wouldnt because I tend not to be investigated ever. I seriously think its five max in over four years of playing, and I think really only around three times. I do draw a whole lot of NKs though, so getting NKed as miller is good... so I dont claim it. Last time I was miller I actually caught scum fakeclaiming because I was a miller and they claimed something that contradicted my flavor heavily.

Im an odd theory supporter for the most part. Think if you rarely get investigated its best to not claim miller, and im one of those that says vig should never shoot.

[Korlash]

Then you're not arguing miller claiming as a general rule, but as a personal trait... That would confuse a lot of people. Was a bit unfortunate replacing into that slot I suppose.

[Rainbowdash]

Then you're not arguing miller claiming as a general rule, but as a personal trait... That would confuse a lot of people. Was a bit unfortunate replacing into that slot I suppose.

More often than not I think its a good thing to do, and I would encourage not claiming from both ends of the "often lynched" spectrum since they seem to be least likely (or at least should be) to be investigated. No pony really tend to check the common town read, or the VI as a cop. Usually hit the middle of the road player who benifits from claiming, and even then I wouldnt fault miller for not claiming miller. All my experiences of not claiming or delaying claiming have worked very well.

[Amrun]

I don't know what happened in this game, but if the Cops were confirmed by the mod (how did this happen?) then that sucks for scum - maybe it would have been easier if that didn't happen.

He sent the other cop a result PM that was worded differently than mine, and I asked Om of the Nom to see if it was a mod mistake - Voided confirmed in thread that it was.

And I also asked Voided if I was sane and he responded yes, but then wouldn't tell Om when he asked. It didn't really matter becuase we investigated the same person on N1 and got the same result.

[Om of the Nom]

If you really had a brain you would have killed me over Korlash any day, and you wouldn't have considered killing RD instead of me.

Except I wouldn't have needed an investigation to catch him... *cough*

And what do you mean 'not even considered'? I think that alone would qualify as not having a brain. Keeping a cop alive is always a good thing to consider as scum since it's unexpected and thus could potentially lead to a victory...

I'm a little disappointed this wasn't a team run 'plan' but more of a thing that just 'came about'. I think if you guys had discussed it a little more it might have become obvious which of you needed to live. Still, being unable to claim 'rb' late game would most likely have still lead to your downfall...

I am curious, why did MoI get a vanilla town read on RD?

Would you honestly consider keeping a cop alive if they had already gotten a guilty on someone already, and had a likely chance of investigating you (which I actually did)?

[Korlash]

Define likely chance of investigating me... You can't use this one singular game as evidence to suggest a pattern. I can think of many situations where I wouldn't fear the cop investigating me, so leaving them alive to distract the discussion is a great move. I can think of times when 'risking' it would be worth it too. Like if there are two nights left and no possible reason I would survive into LYLO. I leave the cop alive the night before so I can kill him going into LYLO and explain me not being the night-kill. Sure, he can investigate me and I lose, but it could easily be worth the risk.

I can tip the scales in my favor during the day prior to night to keep the cop from investigating me as well. It isn't fool proof, but if I plan to let him live I certainly can influence who he thinks is scum during the day.

And of course don't forget that just getting a guilty on me doesn't spell my doom. Hell, I nearly got the last cop with a guilty on me mislynched, so I could easily foresee times when I PLAN to let a cop investigate me just to mislynch him the following day. In a MYLO situation, letting a cop get a guilty on you is easily the best way for a strong player to win the game. It puts the game into a 1v1 scenario with the cop doing exactly what scum would do in that situation. And if you plan according beforehand you can have an escape route already setup.

An outed cop is just as easily a tool for the scum to use as it is for the town to use. Understanding rules like that is the key to being a great and creative player.

[Om of the Nom]

1/2 chance of me investigating MoI at that point in the game (I would obviously not investigate myself, RD was a miller and an investigation would be useless, I had already cleared Dan and Feirei was super duper obvtown and was thought to be obvtown by everyone in the game). Which would have left MoI and lucky.

[ActionDan]

Honestly MoI was your worst investigation target. You should have known that if MoI was mafia then he would killed you anyway. If MoI was not mafia, he would have died instead, in which case your investigation would be wasted. Lucky or RD were the best choices. each investigation would limit what they could be, with Moi flipping follower, we'd have assumed high scum power and we could have debated either RD ninja vs Me/Lucky GF.

Also I didn't want you to get all confirmation biasy in the GraveYard. (tbh the your death flavor suggested a guilty. And I had a feeling that meant you investigated either Moi or lucky. But if Lucky, he'd prolly be GF since he didn't kill Moi, so I thought you prolly investigated Moi with your 'I cop people I think are good players and also maybe town'

[iStark]

Most interesting game I've played even though there were some things that shouldn't have happened on mod's behalf. I think there is no reason to have any bitter taste in mouth as I do think Towns did pretty well to lynch MoI on last day (Was expecting it from RD), hence deserving the win.

@Anyone asking why Korlash was killed over Om, We killed him simply because he was one of the two (Other being RD) who would have not fell for 1VS1 crap and was threat to our ''immediate plan''.
We needed Om alive and have guilty on any one of us and help us get lynch on one of the two, nothing more nothing less and he did play exactly like we predicted.

@BB, As I've said in QT I didn't prefer to kill RD for just entertainment perspective and she did provide that sad thing I couldn't pull it trough to last, I just don't like playing boring game by playing site slandered scum-meta & stuff, sorry you had to suffer lose due to my decision.

Note:
God I wish I can play more but until I'm done with my industrial training program I can't ;-;

[iStark]

standard* loss*
Them typos >.>

@MoI, I just read dead QT and no worries!! I don't feel betrayed or anything on the other hand I think it was right choice to buss.

[Glass]

Sorry I couldnt hang in there until the end guys, but good game.

Lopsy did really well, totally had me fooled.