Mini 1327: Murder in the Louvre- Day 6

[Vi]

While it pisses me off how you insist on trashing my contributions, I'm not about to go over to the land of confirmation bias when we still don't know the reasons to the two deaths last night.

:/
I'm not trying to "trash your contributions". I can see how it looked that way though. But I do want you to think through your methodology. Give me a few and I'll try looking through things later tonight.

If that's not what you were doing, then why did you bring up that no one had responded when I and later Nuwen asked the scum to claim?

There's the question of how the Mafia kill would be blocked, implying Town blocker/Doctor/etc., which never occurred.

Then there's the shosproof which I just didn't think of.

That being said, if this is, as you say, a 1v1 situation, my preference in 1v1 situations is to figure out who the OTHER scum has to be and lynch them first, and then how that goes is likely to make the choice easier.

There's a paradox here.
I think Nuwen is scum, foregone conclusion, etc. But you're saying it's better to lynch someone else. This is actually better play IF both members of the 1v1 are Town (which is "often"). But, what if I'm not a crazy person and Nuwen IS scum?

Basically, it turns into using the "1v1" buzzword to discredit a strong opinion about Nuwen being scum.

--

Is it just me or is everyone completely screwing up everyone else's name in this game? I'm glad mine has two letters.

--

In case I have not used "Nuwen" and "scum" in the same sentence enough in this post, Nuwen is scum.

[shos]

lol @ your last line Vi,
I have to say that I think you're missing the point. Yos was assuming that there were three scums; and having a 1v1 is having two people that are suspects to be scum - not two towns necessarily. what he says is that instead of gambling in the nuwen/whoeveryouwant couple, you just look for the THIRD scum first, who is Hiraki. then tomorrow with more info we can choose between the 1v1.
point is that this is not discreditting, it's more of postponing.

[Vi]

I'm pretty sure you're confusing what 1v1 means. (1v1 is usually "lynch this person, and if they flip Town lynch me Tomorrow")

[Yosarian2]

I'm pretty sure you're confusing what 1v1 means. (1v1 is usually "lynch this person, and if they flip Town lynch me Tomorrow")

No, he's right; 1v1 in the sense of "one of these two people are scum". Even if one of you and Nuwen is scum, from my point of view, I'd rather lynch the OTHER scum today and figure you two out tomorrow.

Of course, I think the other scum is Magua and not Hiraki, but, yeah

[shos]

I suspected Magua's slot earlier this game too; remind me why he's scum?
and why you don't think hiraki is? more importantly?

[Yosarian2]

I suspected Magua's slot earlier this game too; remind me why he's scum?
and why you don't think hiraki is? more importantly?

That logic makes me want to lynch either Hiraki or Kats today. Between the two of them, Hiraki looks a lot more town; at the end of the day yesterday, I noticed that even though Hiraki looked like he was going to get lynched, he opposed the Parama wagon I was trying to push (note that this was before the whole stupid cop gambit thing):

I don't think Parama is scum

just playing bad town this game

But he did join the Furcolow wagon later in the day. Considering Parama was town and Furcolow was scum, this raises my opinion of Hiraki. It's not ironclad, of course, but he just doesn't feel like scum; I have a lot more scumtells from that slot then from the Kats slot.

So, yeah. I really think the Kats/Magua slot is logically going to be mafia here; the odds of there being a mafia pair that does not include him seems pretty low to me.

[shos]

the defending of parama doesn't add any good stuff to him imo; scum can't only defend their buddies.
the attack on furc -

Spoiler: lots of quotes

what the fuck? nameclaim furc.

Or you can vote Furcolow.

In related news, screw it.

Unvote: Nuwen
Vote: Furcolow

(L-4)

yeah, okay.

unvote vote furc

ok

I can do this now

my entire read just got demolished by that vote

Unvote, Vote: Furcolow

(L-2)

That's the good stuff.

vote Furclow

L-1. Claim.

Wait a moment.

Detective, Tracker and Vig?

hold the fuck up

unvote

Hiraki, why did you unvote on D2?

I was able to relate with other ongoing games. Not going to say much more than that because that's just about as much as I can say.

I could've sworn you said UberNinja after this for some reason--this was a mistake. I got my games confused.

looks like scummy to me.

[shos]

also, look at page 57 and previous. that page alone holds enough to see that Hiraki is scum, but either way - the largest wagon on Hiraki was 3 people, in which case parama had no votes at all. there was only once where Nuwen had 4, and hiraki and parama 2 each, maybe you mean that.

[Yosarian2]

the defending of parama doesn't add any good stuff to him imo; scum can't only defend their buddies.

Yeah; but defending a town in a situation where that guy is a viable counter-wagon to you with deadline approaching seems like a town-tell to me.

[charter]

post

[shos]

the defending of parama doesn't add any good stuff to him imo; scum can't only defend their buddies.

Yeah; but defending a town in a situation where that guy is a viable counter-wagon to you with deadline approaching seems like a town-tell to me.

can you link me to a place where parama was a counterwagon to hiraki?

post

you really need to do more than that, come on, you're a good townie

[Yosarian2]

the defending of parama doesn't add any good stuff to him imo; scum can't only defend their buddies.

Yeah; but defending a town in a situation where that guy is a viable counter-wagon to you with deadline approaching seems like a town-tell to me.

can you link me to a place where parama was a counterwagon to hiraki?

On page 60, 4 days until deadline, Hiraki was the #1 wagon. Only 3 votes, but the #1 wagon tends to grow fast at that point. Then I voted for Parama, and Kanye followed me right away, putting him up to 2 votes. Hiraki defended him just a few posts later, before most people had had a chance to comment (only you and Vi had), at a point where I think the Parama wagon actually looked like the best bet for a new wagon to get the heat off of Hiraki.

(shrug) I'm not saying that any of that is an ironclad town tell, I'm just saying I see more signs of townieness from Hiraki then from Kats.

[Vi]

Vote count analysis on the quick.

Analysis assumes I'm Town, Zar's Town, and Yos2 is a special case. (It's possible that Zar is scum and Furcolow was leading us on, but probably not.) Comments are made before taking any careful look at the colors on the wagons.

springlullaby 164: Early UberNinja wagon

UberNinja (5):

Zar,

Chiarosicada,

Furcolow,

shos,

Yosarian2,

--

springlullaby 302: shos wagon (gambit wagon)
shos (4): diddin,

Furcolow,

UberNinja, Parama,

--

springlullaby 404: Elmo TeH AzN wagon (lingering)

Elmo TeH AzN (4):

Nuwen,

kanyeknowsbest,

Yosarian2,

Furcolow,

Of note, this wagon stuck around for quite a while. I'd put the chance of scum being on this wagon rather higher.

--

springlullaby 457: Chiarosicada, replaced by Pirate Chemist and then Hiraki
Chiarosicada (4):

Zar,

charter,

Parama, Vi,

This could be an all-Town wagon. Also, it reminds me of how Townish Chiarosicada looked when replacing out.

--

springlullaby 1059: Zar (at its peak)

(4) Zar:

UberNinja,

Furcolow,

kanyeknowsbest, Elmo teh AzN, Vi

--

springlullaby 1118: UberNinja (lynch) (lingering)

(7) UberNinja:

shos, Nuwen,

Yosarian2,

Zar,

Hiraki,

Furcolow,

Elmo teh AzN,

I think given the lingering and policy nature of the wagon there are at least two scum on this wagon.

--

springlullaby 1159: Hiraki
(4) Hiraki : charter,

kanyeknowsbest, Parama,

shos,

--

springlullaby 1490: Nuwen
(4) Nuwen :

Vi,

charter,

Zar,

shos,

--

springlullaby 1586: Furcolow (flash)

(6) Furcolow:

Yosarian2,

Vi, kanyeknowsbest,

Nuwen, shos, charter,

Of the five players alive NOT {Vi, Yos2, Zar}, the only ones not on Furcolow at this point are Katsuki and Hiraki. Katsuki was getting replaced and Hiraki said he had some excuse. Everyone else hopped on the Furcowagon more or less as soon as possible.

----

General observations:

charter and shos were on all of the major D2 wagons. In particular shos was on the end of all of them. shos is late on wagons in general.
Nuwen and Hiraki didn't vote for each other when they were the leading wagons.

Result:
Magua/Katsuki/diddin fries the analysis by being absent so much of the time. However, they didn't assist in the D1 lynch.
Of the remaining players, Hiraki doesn't look that bad.
Of the remaining players, Nuwen, charter, and shos, in ascending order of culpability.

What I get out of this is that we should be lynching Nuwen instead of Maguasukiddin and Hirachemisicada.

[shos]

Of the remaining players, Hiraki doesn't look that bad.
Of the remaining players, Nuwen, charter, and shos, in ascending order of culpability.


where did that come from?
I'd add an extra note that Hiraki was not on the furcolow lynch beause he UNVOTED there.

[Vi]

Of the remaining players, Hiraki doesn't look that bad.
Of the remaining players, Nuwen, charter, and shos, in ascending order of culpability.


where did that come from?
I'd add an extra note that Hiraki was not on the furcolow lynch beause he UNVOTED there.

It comes from me looking at the black names on the wagons and judgment calling.

Also, Hiraki unvoted. So?

[shos]

Furc's votes throughthe whole game.

vote: vi

vote: shos

vote: uberninja

vote: shos

vote: quilford

vote: nuwen

vote: vi

vote: katsuki

vote: elmo

vote: zar

vote: Vi

vote: Yos

vote: zar

vote: UberNinja

vote: yos

vote: Nuwen

vote: Zar

vote: Charter

vote: Katsuki

vote: shos

vote: Yos

fuck
gg

LOTS of hiraki votes here eh?

[Vi]

shos

Vi

Magua

Hiraki

Yosarian2

Nuwen*

Zar

charter

Point taken.

[Vi]

Parama is town
Charter is my #1 suspect after that weak ass jump onto Nuwen

vote: Charter

This vote is relevant to my interests.

[shos]

Vi, what did you think about the case I gave the start of D2 about Hiraki? with the continuous flaling and 'oops'es, and with the latest addition of Furc's votes through the game, what is your opinion?

in other words, is there any reason at all not to vote Hiraki?

[shos]

Also last night I thought of something to negate the 'why would he tell us about the vision' thing that I heard in day 2.
On day 1, I messaged him, and he got the 'message' from the mod. then he was shouted at for not telling the town about it. then, he got the vision - maybe he thought it came from a player as well(maybe it does, who knows), and therefore he told the town about it, so as not to make the same mistake twice..

[Zar]

I still don't like that there's been a major silence on the player that sent me a message, and also charter's roamabouts.

[Zar]

Spoiler: D2 final wagons

Day 2 votecount 10

(4) Nuwen :

Vi, charter,

Zar

, shos,

(2) Hiraki :

Parama

, Katsuki,

(2) Parama :

Yosarian2

,

kanyeknowsbest

,

(1) shos:

Furcolow

,

(1) charter:

Hiraki,

(1) Not voting :

Nuwen

With 11 players, 6 votes are required to lynch.

Day 2 votecount 11

(5) Furcolow:

Yosarian2

, Vi,

kanyeknowsbest

, Hiraki, Nuwen

(3) Hiraki :

Katsuki,

Zar

, shos,

(1) Nuwen :

charter,

(1) Yosarian2:

Furcolow

,

(1) Not voting :

Parama,

With 11 players, 6 votes are required to lynch.

Day 2 votecount 12

(5)

Furcolow

:

Yosarian2

, Vi,

kanyeknowsbest

, Nuwen, shos,

(3) Hiraki :

Katsuki,

Zar

,

(1) Nuwen :

charter,

(1) Yosarian2:

Furcolow

,

(1) Not voting :

Parama, Hiraki,

With 11 players, 6 votes are required to lynch.

Day 2 final votecount

(6)

Furcolow

:

Yosarian2

, Vi,

kanyeknowsbest

, Nuwen, shos, charter,

(3) Hiraki :

Katsuki,

Zar

,

(1) Yosarian2:

Furcolow

,

(2) Not voting :

Parama, Hiraki,

With 11 players, 6 votes are required to lynch.

By the way the Furcowagon grew, I'm led to believe there's at least 1 scum in Furcolow's wagon; if my gut is right, it's one of shos or Nuwen, but not both.

In fact, when compared to the End-of-Day 1 Flip:

Day 1 Final votecount

(7) UberNinja:

shos, Nuwen,

Yosarian2

,

Zar

, Hiraki,

Furcolow

,

Elmo teh AzN

,

(2) Hiraki :

Parama

, charter, Vi

(2)

Zar

:

UberNinja

,

kanyeknowsbest

,

(1) Vi:

Katsuki,

(0) Not voting :

With 13 players, 7 votes are required to lynch.

Uberninja has been lynched.

It all points to out to indicating that the scum cashed on letting the town rip each others throats.

[Nuwen]

fwiw, wagon patterns change dramatically between 2 and 3 man scum teams, especially on the subject of bussing. You might see things like a white flag gambit between 2 scum when neither or only one of their wagons are viable, just to throw off rote VCA. I'm strongly leaning towards 2-1-9 setup based on the kill targets we've seen.

Hiraki's unvote on the Furthing wagon can be read as either alignment, imo. It could be read as non-committal to a bus, but that makes his unvote pretty stupid play because it wasn't accompanied by any alternate case. If he was attempting to create distance between himself and Furthing while not contributing to Furthing's lynch, he didn't do it in the way I would expect from scum. Then again, a daytalkless kneejerk reaction to a growing wagon on one buddy in a two-man group might be to unvote. I can also see an unvote coming from town not wanting to proceed without fully processing all claims.

Reasons for Hiraki being scum come from Furthing's non-interaction with Hiraki in general, avoidance of the Hiraki wagon, and his attempts to pry votes off Hiraki. I honestly don't see scum doing this on a mislynch. Even if they're trying to gain an ally by defending a town player, Furthing should have gone into survival mode and gone balls to the walls on Hiraki's alternate wagon if he were town.

[shos]

I am inclined to think of a Hiraki-Vi- team, with an even-night vig or something alike.

also Zar, in the wiki link of the movie you linked to, there's this quote:
When Belphegor proves more than a match for the Louvre's security forces, renowned detective Verlac (Michel Serrault) is brought out of retirement to find out why the museum's Egyptian collection has been shrinking.

Does your role pm state that you are renowned? because if it does, then I'd think that this game is inspired by the movie's plot.
we have police inspector/vig, detective, forensic investogator, night guard, who are all the 'louvres security forces'; town scientific expert who investigates the mummy; charter is the mona lisa...dunno, might really be a coincidence but the bad guy in the movie is Lisa..

dunno. anyone seen that movie? should I download? XD


ninja'd by nuwen(yes I know long time difference I am speaking on MSn and on the phone and this post takes me like an hour hehe).

I agree well, hiraki is scum for sure~

[charter]

I'm a flavorcop. I get some cryptic clues about someone's name flavor. It's why I was in favor of the massnameclaim yesterday, so I would have everyone's name to verify against. Night one I investigated Furc, last night I investigated Vi. Vi is a mummy like she claimed. As far as I can tell, my role is totally useless.