NY Mafia 155 - New Age Mafia II - Game Over!

[Quagmire]

Just an initial look at these voting patterns makes me want to lynch scooby or redFF today.

vote redFF

Still looking around.

[OhGodMyLife]

Vote Count:

7 to lynch

redFF: 4 (MichelSableheart, JDodge, Rhinox, Quagmire)
Rhinox: 2 (Knight of Cydonia, redFF)
scooby: 2 (Hoopla, Tierce)
MichelSableheart: 2 (scooby, Glork)
Hoopla: 1 (AGar)

Not Voting: 1 (Bella)

Current Deadline:

Monday September 17th 10 PM EST

Seeking a replacement for JDodge.

[AGar]

@Agar: your vote is completely in the wrong place. Quagmire claimed a 1 shot gunsmith investigation on Hoopla revealing no gun, so Hoopla can only be scum if Quagmire is scum. Hoopla should therefore never be lynched before Quagmire.

You have no idea how a gunsmith works, do you?

[OhGodMyLife]

Prods will go out this evening when I get home from work, so get posting or.get poked!

[Bella]

VOTE: MichaelSableheart

[MichelSableheart]

Michael, since you replaced in your only suspect is redff, which screams easy target all over the way. A normal townie would be paranoid of at least one superstar of the game.

With the competing bandwagons during day 1 on two scummembers, and the day 2 wagon being simple follow the cop, there is relatively little information regarding who's scum. Simultaneously, due to massclaim, there is a lot of information regarding who's town. Because of this, I'm looking at this game from a process of elimination perspective. Eliminating those I feel certain are town leaves 6 players: Knight of Cydonia, Quagmire, Scooby, Glork, JDodge and redFF. KoC and Quagmire are semiconfirming each other because their claims match, and through the roleblock on Scooby we know that he did not make the night 1 kill. That leaves Glork, JDodge and RedFF as the three players who should be our next three lynches for the win. That even gives us the mislynch to spare to get me out of the VT pool, and an extra lynch to use at KoC, Quagmire or Scooby should I be wrong.

You are completely correct that RedFF is an easy target. With a town hellbent on voting my townreads, trying to get a lynch on an easy target is the way to go. Pushing for one of the "superstars" Glork or JDodge would likely only result in a townflip of Rhinox, you or me. That I can see actual scumtells from Red, when I don't really see those from either Glork or JDodge only sweetens the deal.

For clarity, this is how I currently rate the likelyhood of each player being scum:

• Mod confirmed town to me: {MichelSableheart (my role pm says I'm town), Bella (Innocent Child)}
  
• Effectively mod confirmed town: {AGar (one shot vig), Tierce (no gun according to Knight of Cydonia's slot), Hoopla (no gun according to Quagmire)}
  
• Almost certainly town: {Rhinox (Claim is extremely unlikely to come from scum)}
  
• Likely town through claims: {Knight of Cydonia (one shot gunsmith matches Quagmire's claim), Quagmire (one shot gunsmith matches KoC's claim), Scooby (roleblocked by Staeg N1 means less likely scum)}
  
• No town reads, so likely two of these are scum: {Glork, JDodge, redFF}
  
  

  You are trying to stay away of the big guys hate, while at the same time changing strategically your voting to me (despite having said that you wouldnt go after me) and flameaxe, whom you never talked about before.

  I replaced in four days before deadline, with two large competing wagons: one on a strong townread of mine (Rhinox), one on a weak townread of mine (you). Guaranteeing a lynch at deadline was of the utmost importance. That gives me little choice but to first vote my weakest townread, and jump on the wagon of a neutral read as soon as it's viable.
  
  

  You spend a lot of posting talking about town reads and you use some weird logic to clear them ("I'm not going to vote Rhinox, because I feel it is extremely unlikely that he would try to pull a fakeclaim like that as scum") but when redff does something that is unlikely to do as scum: going after a confirmed ability player, somehow HE IS SCUM.

  Let's consider the two cases a bit more in depth. First Rhinox. If Rhinox is town, he will certainly claim bulletproof to mafia neighbour, because that is his actual role. If Rhinox is scum, he is extremely unlikely to claim bulletproof to mafia neighbour, since normal neighbour is a far more logical claim to make. Rhinox did something that he's likely to do as town, and unlikely to do as scum, so Rhinox is town.
  
  Now compare this to RedFF voting Agar. If RedFF is town hunting for scum, he is unlikely to vote for Agar, because Agar has an ability (one shot vig) that is unlikely to be held by scum and which therefore indicates that Agar is town. On the other hand, if RedFF is scum, he does have reasons to vote for Agar: trying to get rid of a town player. Sure, it's not great play from scum, but it's more likely to be done by scum then by town. RedFF did something that he's unlikely to do as town, and more likely to do as scum, so RedFF is likely scum.
  
  @Quagmire: I must admit that I did not consider that possibility, but it seems extremely unlikely to me. Sanity issues on a one-shot ability seem unnecessarily punishing, so the presence of two one-shot gunsmiths makes a godfather unlikely IMO. And then that role has to fall on that single investigation? Considering Hoopla confirmed town unless you flip scum is by far the better play.
  
  @Agar: when everything seems to indicate that we're dealing with a normal mafia group, gunsmith is effectively a cop that can get false positives. A negative remains a negative, though.

[AGar]

Mafia Doc is the antithesis of a Gunsmith.

I don't find a Mafia Doc completely implausible in this setup.

[Tierce]

Prod dodge; still have to reread and tonight is game time.

[Hoopla]

Apologies - have been busy too. I'm around and will be making effort soon.

[Hoopla]

I think I like Michel's recent post - makes me feel a little bit better about that slot, although it will never really escape scrutiny given how PoE driven this game is going to be. From my perspective, him suspecting an extremely narrow window of players is a protown sign given his position at this point is chiefly etched in eking out as many mislynches as possible before he dies (if he's scum). Having said that, refining his list to so few makes it easier to attack one or two players with fervor, which could be a more efficient method of surviving a couple more days. On a gut level, a lot of his conclusions seem sincere and I get where he's coming from.

Still not jiving with scooby's attempted VC analysis because it comes to weird conclusions without much thought put into it. Doesn't make him scum though - I think he'd serve up that sort of tripe as town too, and I keep forgetting about him being roleblocked, which I should really be factoring in.

I've kind of written off redFF as town earlier in the game, and I can't really remember why. It's probably about time I reread him without the confirmation bias.

I honestly don't really know who I want to lynch today, but it should probably be in the VT's still. I'd be happy powering through one or two more quicklynches from the VT pool, but that's just me. Even the players who were driving this game through inactivity seem uninterested (including me), so lets just get our hands dirty and do this.

[Knight of Cydonia]

I tend to get really disinterested really quickly in any game that becomes "scum must be in this pool, lynch all of these until we win"

I suspect I am not alone here

[Hoopla]

I tend to get really disinterested really quickly in any game that becomes "scum must be in this pool, lynch all of these until we win"

I suspect I am not alone here

Blame Glork for strong-arming the town into a massclaim D1 then.

[AGar]

I really really really dislike the cross-buddying and seemingly groupthink coming from MichelSablehart and Hoopla.

[Hoopla]

You wanna lynch it then?

[AGar]

You wanna lynch it then?

Check my vote and get back to me.

[Hoopla]

Your vote hinges on Quagmire being scum, ergo he is the slightly more sensible vote if you've resigned yourself to gambling on conspiracy theories.

[MichelSableheart]

@Agar, re: Hoopla-me: if you look at the reasoning, it should be clear where it's coming from.

@KoC: by not providing anything to work with, you make it difficult for the other players to maintain interest as well.

[Quagmire]

If anyone has wondered why my posting quantity and quality has declined over the past couple RL weeks, please review this post:

Sorry guys, I'm asking to be replaced. I'm heading back to school in 2 weeks, and the amount of time I'm going to have available for anything is going to be drastically reduced. I'm not going to have the time to keep up with a game this size. Sorry.

This is going to happen to me exactly two weeks from today. As I'll be working FT and at school PT, my schedule will be stressed. I will try to post as much as I can but my activity will probably decline. Just a heads up.

[Quagmire]

I'm most content with lynching redFF today. I would also be happy to lynch Rhinox, Glork, Michel and Tierce.

[Quagmire]

Your vote hinges on Quagmire being scum, ergo he is the slightly more sensible vote if you've resigned yourself to gambling on conspiracy theories.

No, it doesn't hinge on me being scum. Unless, are godfathers not typically immune to gunsmiths? My being away from mafia for 1-2 years has really gotten me behind on mechanics of modern setups.

[Quagmire]

HEY JDODGE!!!!!!

Where have you been?

[Rhinox]

I'm limited access due to having no computer access at my workplace this week

[Quagmire]

Here's a list of where we're at with claims and strategy. Let me know if I missed something.

Living (12/19)
1. Hoopla [VT]
2. Glork [VT, neighbor with Rhinox]
3. Quagmire [one-shot gunsmith]
4. Tierce [VT]
6. Bella [Innocent Child]
7. Rhinox [neighbor, mafia-nk-immune]
9. scooby [VT]
11. AGar [one-shot Vig]
13. Knight of Cydonia [one-shot gunsmith]
14. redFF [VT]
16. MichelSableheart [VT]
19. JDodge [VT]

That's 7 VTs out of 12, with maximum of 3 mafia left. I'm inclined to think the innocent results from the gunsmiths (Hoopla and - embarrassing - I forgot?) should be last on the list, as well as the Staeg roleblock on scooby.

[Quagmire]

If Glork is scum, the longer we let him live, the more of a threat he becomes. A Glorkscum with 3-4 left in LYLO is a recipe for disaster. He also pushed for the massclaim D1, which I guess I was the only who thought was a scum-motivated move at the time. We'd really be in the hole if Psyche didn't get that guilty on singer.

[Knight of Cydonia]

Here's a list of where we're at with claims and strategy. Let me know if I missed something.

Living (12/19)
1. Hoopla [VT]
2. Glork [VT, neighbor with Rhinox]
3. Quagmire [one-shot gunsmith]
4. Tierce [VT]
6. Bella [Innocent Child]
7. Rhinox [neighbor, mafia-nk-immune]
9. scooby [VT]
11. AGar [one-shot Vig]
13. Knight of Cydonia [one-shot gunsmith]
14. redFF [VT]
16. MichelSableheart [VT]
19. JDodge [VT]

That's 7 VTs out of 12, with maximum of 3 mafia left. I'm inclined to think the innocent results from the gunsmiths (Hoopla and - embarrassing - I forgot?) should be last on the list, as well as the Staeg roleblock on scooby.

Tierce.