Mafia 158: Titanium. Game over

[Maenara]

Then there is not very much I can do to convince you otherwise.

[mykonian]

votecount

maenara (3): qwints, jun, eleison
shinori (2): buldermar, 10506670
eleison (1): hiraki
combinatorialEnigma (1): Telo
NJAC (1): maenara
jun (1): smashbard

not voting (5): dividizzle, theomoaner, combinatorialEnigma, shinori, NJAC

With 14 players it is 8 to lynch (7 to no lynch)

Deadline is on the 13th of october

[qwints]

Then there is not very much I can do to convince you otherwise.

Sure there is. Either tell us what information we gained from a lynch you said would gain information or tell us what changed that made your previous statement incorrect. Alternatively, argue that the question is premature or irrelevant. This is the first time you've been under any scrutiny. React!

dividizzle: You said Maenara's behavior "is interesting" in 773. Do you think she's scum? Should we lynch her?

NJAC: Pick a target. All you've done on Day 2 is label Shinori as "incredibly anti-town" before backing off that claim in your very next post. Who should we lynch?

[Jun]

So…since that post of yours was so delightfully waffley, I’m gonna try to shed some light on your thought process.

Players on the Shinori Wagon Day 2:
Elieson, Enigma, Buldermar, Smashbard, Maenara, Hiraki, Numbers

If you believe the Mason claim, and don’t believe Numbers to be scum. This leaves Buldermar, Enigma, Hiraki & Maenara as suspects for opportunistic scum. From your analysis.

Players on Numbers Wagon Day 1:
Dividizzle, Slandaar, Maenara, Smashbard, Buldermar, Theomoaner, Elieson.

If you believe the Mason claim, and we know Slandaar is dead, this leaves Dividizzle, Maenara, Buldermar & Theomoaner as suspects for opportunistic scum. From your analysis.


Thus, by correlation, this breaks down your scumreads like thus:

Buldermar, Hiraki, Enigma, Maenara, Dividizzle and Theomoaner are more than likely scummy in your eyes.

Buldermar & Maenara are present on both wagons. Making them quite possibly your top two scumreads.

But in Post #717, you claim that Enigma & Pacman are your two biggest scumreads. Only one of which was present on the Shinori wagon, with Pacman not being on any of your wagons where you’ve called out scum leading sheep town astray.

At least four of these people should be in your scumpile, if you believe there is a team of 4.

Leaving room for only two of these players to be construed as sheeping town, rather than opportunistic scum.

So since you’ve said that Pacman & Enigma are your top two scumreads, and Enigma was on at least one of your opposed Wagons,

it’s safe to say you believe Enigma is scum.

However, you’ve moved on to Maenara, citing that Enigmas wagon hasn’t gained any traction. But you don’t want to lynch him for the reasons stated, thinking he only deserves pressure, despite pointing out he probably has insider information, as well as him being on both of your opposed wagons.

This reads to me like scum Jun distancing himself from the Maenara partner wagon, while still voting for him to look town, while at the same time discouraging people from lynching him for the same reasons you’re voting for him.

Tell me why this isn’t true.

Which leaves Buldermar, who is the only other person who was on both wagons you opposed, yet you don’t seem very set on believing he is scum. So this reads to me like you believe he is just sheeping town.

So to break it down, from the above analysis, I can use my logicbrain to concur the following things:

You believe Enigma is scum for sure. Qwints is second scum out of nowhere. While you see Buldermar as sheeping town, and only want to pressure Maenara. Leaving Hiraki, Dividizzle or Theo as the other two scum.

So if you would be so kind, please elaborate your reads on Dividizzle, Theo and Hiraki. Are they apart of the sheeping town from their respective wagons or are they scum leading false lynches?

Your answers to my questions will greatly impact my read on you for the rest of the game.

I don't know why you're analyzing the numbers wagon from Day 1 instead of the pirate mollie wagon, but yes, I would agree with "Buldermar, Hiraki, Enigma, Maenara, Dividizzle and Theomoaner are more than likely scummy in your eyes." Except for whatever reason Buldermar, Hiraki, and Dividizzle got put in my leaning town pile a while ago and I have yet to see anything from them that jumps out at me to change my leaning town read. My reads aren't solely based on train analysis but more of a larger picture - I guess I picked out people I thought were scummy and realized oh hey this person is also sheeping onto lynches and this doesn't sit right with me.

My top scum reads are the slots for pmysterious, pacman, and maenara. imo tho, quints seems pretty town to me. I think my problem with evilpacman was for lurking so much since it was counter to the town meta of himself that he presented to me at the beginning of the game. So I'd like to drop the quints/evilpacman slot as scum for now and move it to the unsure pile. Leaving the PMysterious/combinatorial enigma and maenara as my top 2 scum reads.

hiraki and dividizzle I think don't post enough for me to develop a read without going back to do an iso which I'll get around to eventually. The thing about them that sticks out the most to me is that nothing about them sticks out to me besides hiraki's obvious attitude problems. Telo I believe is town for having similar reads to me and not sheeping onto what i thought to be an ill founded train on Shinori. Theomoaner I would buy as scum.

Hope this helps.

First, sorry for the burst of posts - I'm trying to get caught up, and I don't like doing the whole omnibus post thing.

Assuming three scum and a SK (That'd be a reasonable distribution, no?) ... This would, of course, necessitate a blocked kill this night, but that too is a possibility.

Three anti-town roles in a 16-player game is too few. Whether or not one is a SK is not what matters.

Everyone can see that it's

virtually guaranteed

there'd be at least 4 anti-town players, and I'm guessing that there's a SK or similar because

I find that most

16-man games would probably have some sort of 3rd party.

This sequence is also strange to me. Maenara, who "no likey" theory discussion (post 12) and is surrounded by "more experienced" players (post 91) assumes that there is a third part involved based on her experience with 16-man games - despite her only other games being 2 newbie games and 1 large theme. Set-up speculation at this stage seems unhelpful given the fact the only info we have is 2 flipped townies and 2 claimed masons.

An amateur player who dislikes theory discussion performing premature setup speculation SCREAMS hidden information to me. The roles aware of a blocked night kill would be:
1)any mafia member if the mafia kill didn't go through;
2)a serial killer whose kill didn't go through; or
3)a town power role who somehow gained hidden information (no one should speculate on this at this point for obvious reasons)

So, a cumulative list of my outstanding questions for

Maenara:
Q: What "valuable information" did we learn from lynching mollie?
Q: Is there a reason to not connect you and Telo?
Q: What was the point of post 775?

Smashbard:
Q: Did you claim because you were worried about not finishing bread-crumbing, or just because you worried about a Elieson speed-lynch?

Telo's replacement:
Q: How do you react to me saying I think you're scum alongside Maenara?

Jun:
Q: Are you bussing Maenara?

Wow good catch about Maenara's position on discussing the setup. I missed that.

And to answer your question, I would have to actually be scum with Maenara to be bussing her. But if it gets us to lynch scum, I don't care what you think since its not really convincing imo to hear someone say no, i'm not bussing Maenara since I'm not scum. I think Maenara's lynch would give us the most information and has the highest probability of hitting scum at the moment.

[Maenara]

Fine. My statement was hasty and partly motivated by the attempt to get people to do

anything], as we were stagnating. The lynch, while taking place, did not happen the way I'd assumed it would, and we have too few data points at current time to do much with it other than declaring Shinori an idiot for hammering. I really can't say more at current time; I don't remember more about the exact thoughts going through my head at the time.

Also, NJAC is still totally scum for doing nothing, reappearing at the most convenient of times, and being unwilling to do anything risky at all.

Oh, and Jun, but saying that at the moment just sounds like an OMGUS.

[Maenara]

Wow good catch about Maenara's position on discussing the setup. I missed that.

And to answer your question, I would have to actually be scum with Maenara to be bussing her. But if it gets us to lynch scum, I don't care what you think since its not really convincing imo to hear someone say no, i'm not bussing Maenara since I'm not scum. I think Maenara's lynch would give us the most information and has the highest probability of hitting scum at the moment.

Oh, for...

I never claimed to be certain that there's a 3rd party, I just find it more likely than only a single kill role in a 16-man game with masons, while giving both kills to the mafia seems imbalanced. Only three non-town players in a 16 man game with masons is virtually impossible. My point is not that it had to be 3 scum and a SK, I was just assuming that for the sake of the argument.

And yes,

excessive

setup speculation is bad. That's why I didn't go into detail before people started pressing me on why I'd set it. The only thing I was doing, initially, was saying that there was probably 4 anti-town players, one of whom I just assumed, again, for the sake of argument, was a SK. Like I said later, though, that doesn't matter, and all that matters is that we've got a reasonably good chance of hitting scum,

which was my freaking point.

As for the experience thing, my problem isn't with understanding setups, it's with reading players. Two very different skills.

No. Not a good catch.

Keep scumming it up, Jun.

[Jun]

Also, in light of the masons reveal and following posts, I think Shinori actually is looking more like a scum slot. I would probably need to reread the thread because I've been reading everything assuming Shinori was town.

So I guess I'd say my top scum reads as of this moment are: Maenara, combinatorial enigma, Shinori
I'd be fine with lynching either one of them but I need to reread on Shinori a bit before I can feel confident in my assessment of him as scum.

[Jun]

Fine. My statement was hasty and partly motivated by the attempt to get people to do

anything], as we were stagnating. The lynch, while taking place, did not happen the way I'd assumed it would, and we have too few data points at current time to do much with it other than declaring Shinori an idiot for hammering. I really can't say more at current time; I don't remember more about the exact thoughts going through my head at the time.

Also, NJAC is still totally scum for doing nothing, reappearing at the most convenient of times, and being unwilling to do anything risky at all.

Oh, and Jun, but saying that at the moment just sounds like an OMGUS.

What did I say that was an OMGUS?

Isn't OMGUS like:
Slandaar: vote jun
Jun: OMGUS vote Slandaar

Except I'm not voting Slandaar. I'm voting you. Therefore, not OMGUS?

[Jun]

Whoops. It's smashbard who's voting me, not slandaar.

Isn't OMGUS like:
Smashbard: vote jun
Jun: OMGUS vote Smashbard

Except I'm not voting Smashbard. I'm voting you. Therefore, not OMGUS?

[Maenara]

You miss my point.

My criticizing you in that post sounds like an OMGUS, because you're currently attacking me.

Of course, you totally are scum, but that's irrelevant to that particular point.

[Smashbard]

To Qwintz: I was going to finish my bread crumbing regardless of what happened, that was the plan after all. so I was more afraid of him being lynched than me finishing my code.

To Jun: I analyzed the Numbers and Shinori wagon because those were the two players you said you refused to vote for on Day 1, so I wanted to get your thoughts on those wagons and the people within those wagons so that you could commit to actually saying WHOM you believed were sheeping town and WHOM you believed were scum leading the trains. So I could test to see if you actually believed in Shinori/Numbers as town, or if at the time you were just blindly protecting scumbuddies without real reasons.

With Enigma being your top scumread, that could explain your train analysis on Shinori. But...there is no scum candidate leading the train on Numbers from Day 1. As it was a Slandaar based train, with myself being the second player really pressing Numbers at that point. One of which is proven town, one of which you believe to be town. So who was the scum leading the Numbers train?

[Smashbard]

Oh and by the way, Slandaar's death tells me scum was on the Mollie Wagon. I stated specifically, and a few people agreed with me, that depending on Mollies flip that would decide Slandaars alignment. So I believe scum killed Slandaar because it was a "safe kill" that wouldn't necessarily implicate anyone, while also depriving the town of information being able to look to Slandaar as a possible confirmed town in Day 2.

My next post will analysis the Mollie wagon, and correlate my results from the Numbers, Shinori and Elieson wagons, as well as my grilling of Jun so far, to determine for myself who I believe to best be our scumteam, or at least who's most likely to be scum.

[qwints]

Okay, I'm convinced mason claim is legit, though I think it was unnecessary. Look at Smashbard's early post defending Eliesen:

Trying to get Eleison to elaborate on his motives is either panicked rolefishing on your part or reasonable pressure for answers. I'm leaning towards town motivations for you, because I agree that trying to hold secrets out loud this early in the game is not needed.

Follow that up with further defenses in posts 292, 297, 321, 350. Combine that with Elison's clumsy bread-crumb at the beginning, and the premature mason claim, and you've got either the boldest scum I've ever seen or actual masons with one being a little panicky.

Bumping my unanswered questions:

dividizzle: You said Maenara's behavior "is interesting" in 773. Do you think she's scum? Should we lynch her?

NJAC: Pick a target. All you've done on Day 2 is label Shinori as "incredibly anti-town" before backing off that claim in your very next post. Who should we lynch?

[Smashbard]

Mollie Wagon:
Hiraki, Jun, Slandaar, Theomoaner, Smashbard, Buldermar, Elieson, Telo, Shinori

Elieson Wagon:
Hiraki, NJAC, Maenara, Shinori.


There is no common denominator of one player being on all 4 wagons. But I didn’t exactly allow the Elieson wagon to gain enough steam to draw any real correlations between it.

However, between the three major wagons of the game thus far, here are the commonalities.

Buldermar.

If there is a case to be made about opportunistic scum, Buldermars the only one that fits the bill on the Numbers, Mollie and Shinori wagons. If we count the Elieson wagon, here’s a few more suspects that at least fit the bill 3 out of 4 wagons.

Hiraki (Mollie, Elieson, Shinori)

And

Maenara (Elieson, Shinori, Numbers)

So here’s my top 4 suspects for scummiest players, listed in order from Scummiest to least scummiest, based on Mollies wagon.

Maenara
Hiraki
Jun
Buldermar

Buldermars at the bottom because I originally had this guy pegged as town. But his recent drop in activity since the decline of the Shinori wagon is particularly disheartening.

Speaking of which, my top town read Day 1 was Theomoaner. And yet he has been all but non existent Day 2. Scum possibly hiding below the radar after a mislynch to avoid scrutiny and suspicion? I think it’s very possible.

For now, my vote stays on Jun until I finalize my conversation with him as to who he believes is scummy or not.

[theomoaner]

I'm here, just reading. Unlike you apparently, My post count for day two is almost as high as NJAC's and Dividizzle's for the entire game. Non-existent?

try reading the bit where I said I was busy today (and for the next few days), We haven't all got two days off.

[qwints]

Smashbard, remember that even though Maenara wasn't on the final Mollie wagon, she was pushing it quite hard. See my 801.

[Smashbard]

I'm here, just reading. Unlike you apparently, My post count for day two is almost as high as NJAC's and Dividizzle's for the entire game. Non-existent?

try reading the bit where I said I was busy today (and for the next few days), We haven't all got two days off.

I'm trying to figure out a way to explain this, because simplifying figures of speech is kind of hard when you actually have to think about it.

When you say "all but non-existent" you generally mean he's been everything but non-existent. As in, your activity is low, but not non-existent.

Does that make any sense? I'm not being condescending, I really want to know if I'm making any sense. My head hurts after all that wagon analyzing.

Your snarkiness is noted though. If you can't see why someone would be suspicious of you after you being my #2 town pick Day 1, and then going for not contributing a whole lot Day 2, then you're just being overly defensive.

[Maenara]

Y'all are ignoring the fact that scum would rather

not

be seen doing everything scummy. "Oh, sure, let's go ahead and lynch everyone who has actually tried to encourage activity while not being one of the three we've got a massive crush on!"

I mean, really. What is up with this. Eleison was objectively terrible on D1. Him getting to four votes was not scummy. Analysing based on wagons while ignoring things like what NJAC has (not) been doing is just downright dumb.

[theomoaner]

I understood, just tired and cranky. Not being defensive, it just p'd me off to have my level of activity questioned in this game.

[qwints]

Maenara, who are your top 3 scum-candidates if you flip town after we lynch you?

[Maenara]

Provisionally? NJAC, Jun, numberscum. Decreasing order of certainty, though, and some of them are very likely to change as I read on.

I'm kinda uncomfortable with that "after we lynch you", though.

[Smashbard]

Mae, the problem with trying to lynch active lurkers is that there are always players defending lurkers to the grave. Thus unless we have real evidence to go off of, Its just going to be a policy lynch

[Maenara]

...wait, so because some people defend them for stupid reasons, it's a policy lynch? What?

[NJAC]

Also, NJAC is still totally scum for doing nothing, reappearing at the most convenient of times, and being unwilling to do anything risky at all.

When are those convenient times and why are they exactly convenient for me? Did I mention I had RL stuff to deal with?

NJAC: Pick a target. All you've done on Day 2 is label Shinori as "incredibly anti-town" before backing off that claim in your very next post. Who should we lynch?

NJAC: Pick a target. All you've done on Day 2 is label Shinori as "incredibly anti-town" before backing off that claim in your very next post. Who should we lynch?

Easy man, I'm working on that. Here's what I've got until now:

First than all I was not "backing off that claim" as you say. I backed off that part of: "...makes no effort to avoid being lynched", as you can see in 729, because he was making an "interesting" case on Eleison. But it doesn't change the fact that he has been antitown the whole game.

Actually after masons claim I'm considering my sligthly town read on him. Now it's more null leaning scum, and definitely still antitown. In fact, if there's an hypothetical vig, as some of you said, he would still be a good target imo.

On another note your case on Maenara is sound. I myself was suspecting of her because she says I'm not scumhunting (that's actually true I must admit, and I'm also guilty of lurking because of RL stuff), but she herself hasn't donde a great scumhunting job, all I see is she's been supporting others cases and sheeping. That part of sheeping isn't scummy at all, but I have the sense she's a bit opportunistic jumping on the biggest wagons, and giving her own reasons pretending to be doing her scumhunting job.

I'm going to vote her, and I think masons should lead our actions, so I want to see more from them:

VOTE: Maenara

[theomoaner]

The other interesting thing about Smash's list is what I have just been looking at.

Hiraki has spent most of the game raging away at everyone, for imagined or actual stupidity, but he has mentioned Jun outside of the context of defending him from what others have been saying

ONCE

Wasn't this guy supposed to show up and contribute more by page 6? I want to hear what he will say.

I am regretting a tad bit, after seeing shit like this rather than something actually important, that I gave you a town read.

I also found this interesting.

If Jun is playing this game like a noob and just being an idiot, he can take the win.

This is why I said earlier that I think if Jun flips scum Hiraki is scum too.

I've extended this to the third of my scum list, Telo and, outside the context of defence

ZERO

mentions

However Maenara get the full ethug treatment in #89.

Buldermar has yet to be mentioned in any context.

Make of this what you will. I've not got the time or the patience right now to analyse Jun's interactions with Hiraki (I think there are only two or three, all positive) or Telo and Maenara, etc...

VOTE: Jun

I did, after all, say that I would return to Jun Day 2
I'd also happily vote Hiraki or Telo, but at this point not Maenara.

#828 Jun thinks Telo is town, because she shared some of his reads. Telo presented

ONE

scum list. Jun was on it. The other two were Pirate Mollie, who Telo Thought was town and PMysterious. So only one read the same and that qualifies her as town?

Jun, You said earlier that you could "buy me as scum", I would like your case against me please.

Time for bed.

P-edit: NJAC, the "masons" are confirmed as communicating outside this thread, not confirmed town (it's most probable they are but...). Don't follow them blindly.