Mafia 158: Titanium. Game over

[qwints]

Re-reading to evaluate Jun-Hiraki-Telo connections. I feel like you've overstating the number of players Hiraki yelled at.

[mykonian]

votecount

maenara (4): qwints, jun, eleison, NJAC
jun (2): smashbard, theomoaner
shinori (2): buldermar, 10506670
eleison (1): hiraki
combinatorialEnigma (1): Telo
NJAC (1): maenara

not voting (3): dividizzle, combinatorialEnigma, shinori

With 14 players it is 8 to lynch (7 to no lynch)

Deadline is on the 13th of october

[Smashbard]

...wait, so because some people defend them for stupid reasons, it's a policy lynch? What?

I really REALLY hate getting into these kind of discussions, because nobody is ever able to come to an agreement and God knows I'm going to shoot myself in the face if someone starts spouting off more bullshit about only targeting low hanging fruit.


But here's my stance, as clear and concise as possible. Take from it what you will.

I would love to be able to lynch all lurkers. It's my favorite policy in the world. Regardless of alignment.

But most players never want to lynch lurkers. Lynch all Lurkers by definition is a policy lynch.

Most players will tell you they want to lynch scum. Which is all fine and dandy, I'd rather lynch objective scum than subjective lurkers. But Lurkers piss me off a lot more than scum. Because I hate watching a thinking man's game be won by laziness and hiding in the shadows, rather than actually being a skilled player.

It's the equivolent of camping in first person shooters. It's the laziest, cheapest, most aggravating form of play possibly. Because you're not winning off skill, you're being a coward and reaping the benefits of people not being able to get information form you.

But this subject has been debated to death for probably decades by men a lot more knowledgeable about Mafia than I am. Hence why I hate discussing it. Because it never gets anybody anywhere.

And that's why I get so aggravated at active lurkers. I'd rather lose because a crafty scum player was able to fool the whole town with their lies than lose because you were camping with a sniper rifle and just waiting for everyone else to kill themselves.

[combinatorialEnigma]

Jun, why do you think my slot is scum (back in post 828)?

So PMyst was a lurker and dropped out, and I haven't been quite as active as I'd hoped because of college. That's all well and good, but your case beyond that doesn't hold up.

If you're trying to go after people who want to "fabricate" a case against Shinori, then try Elieson. I was pretty much just following Elie on that vote - if there's anyone in the town I actually believe, it's him. And I don't have an "attitude" that you can make a reasonable statement of beyond my argument with Telo, in which she was frankly being unreasonable. I'd be very interested to see why you think her slot's town at all, let alone the MOST town.

You're my top scum suspect at the moment, followed by Telo's slot and maybe NJAC.

VOTE: Jun

[NJAC]

P-edit: NJAC, the "masons" are confirmed as communicating outside this thread, not confirmed town (it's most probable they are but...). Don't follow them blindly.

I can believe their claim, just don't see them likely to be scums falseclaiming. If they're scum then their claim isn't a great move imho, if one of them dies (flipping scum) then the other is confirmed scum and they're lost, right? They're giving free info to scums, so now they have to deal with them. Maybe I'll suspect them if they don't become a NK target in a couple of nights.

Anyway for your tranquility I won't follow them blindly. I'll support them if their arguments make sense to me and they help us to win.

[dividizzle]

sorry had busy day. i'm reading post coming

[NJAC]

@qwints:

While Telo is replaced I'd like to read your case on her being partner with Maenara. And if you could add something about the case on Thurhame/numbers it would be appreciated.

[dividizzle]

Vote: Maenara

I think Maenara is the scummiest player right now. I am also much more comfortable with a Maenara lynch than a Jun lynch. Jun has made some strange comments but not particularly scummy in my eyes. As for the case on maenara, aside from what I was already suspicious of, I think qwints reason #2 in post 814 is telling. Looking at Maenara's ISO and focusing on analysis of mollie, he jumps from all sides of the spectrum. He also shows, in my opinion, way too much pleasure in lynching someone he very well admits could be town.

[qwints]

Broadly speaking, telo has basically spent the entire game without really accusing anyone else of scummy behavior. She's spent her time being defensive, advocating policy lynches on lurkers and complementing other people on their play. That seems scummy. Since I also think Maenara is scummy I looked for connections, and found a couple posts.

I get suspicious of vote trading. So I'm keeping an eye on maenara/pirate mollie and theomaoaner/jun.

This sort of non-committal suspicion without a vote is scummy. It gives you room to come back and say, oh I was against them from the beginning without actually applying pressure. It's also painting with a broad bush, allowing you to pick whatever wagon you want later. Note the inclusion of maenara.

Reread the latest page(s) and rewrite, please. Your [data regarding Mollie] is outdated.

I don't feel that it is Maenara, especially in light of her last post where she reiterates that she will not fight her lynch. I don't like the wagon on her and really don't want to jump on it so I'm going to hang back for a minute and see if I can get anymore to go on.

who is standing out to you right now?

I'm still liking Mysterious. He says he'll give out reads after page six and still nothing. I placed my vote on him and all I got was "I'm still here" in response.

That's not good enough for me. I'd much rather leave my vote on him than move it to you but I don't think my lone vote is enough pressure.
For now I'm going to stick with my reads as well. My vote will remain on Mysterious and I'll keep watching your wagon for developments.

This post is bizarre given her post right before it. She was willing to vote Mollie, but suddenly doesn't like the wagon. Telo said "I'm going to change my vote." Maenara says something to Telo, and then Telo doesn't change her vote. That's my primary evidence for a link.

[Shinori]

Prod dodge, thinking of other stuff. Not even sure if im about to be prodded.

[10506670]

I will admit I haven't been diligent with my posting in this thread, as I am switching posts again to Milan.

Qwints is looking towny overall, mostly because he dug up some nice info previously about Mae. However, the person I think looks most scummy at this point is Jun.

Jun has placed a lot of reliance on meta for several of his cases. Thurhame and NJAC are town based on meta, EPM looked scummy because he wasn't consistent with meta...

Look, Jun. If your Thurhame meta convinced you enough to say:

Guys, Thurhame is town. Believe me.

Then why does my play here not match up with my previous meta in my other games? Does this imply that I'm scum despite your previous confident town read? Meta is weak evidence overall, and I don't think any cases you make using it have much credibility.

Based on late Day 1, I think Shinori is town, and I think scum is trying to mislynch a townie. So I completely disagree with combinatorial Enigma's reasoning for wanting to go after Shinori. I think he's grasping at straws to magically fabricate some case against Shinori that isn't there. If you think Shinori is scum or useless there's a possibility that he's just useless. Wouldn't you then rather lynch someone like evilpacman18 who is in the same category but seems way more likely to be scum? Based on his own meta arguments he linked for me.[/quote

Well here is Jun's first

real

case on someone, namely Rubik. But what is the logic behind this?

Rubik: Shinori's scum
Jun: You're wrong, Shinori looked town to me (I didn't see anything D1 that remotely said Shinori was scum. If anything, he may have gotten townier recently, but I don't see anything that could put him farther than a neutral that early on)
Jun: And remember, he might just be useless.
Reasonable person: If we lynch a non-lurker, he could be scum or active town. If we lynch Shinori, he might be scum or useless town. Maybe the Shinori lynch looks better until we have a more solid scumread....
Jun: Let's go lynch someone based on their meta

[qwints]

10506670, if you think Jun is the most scummy, why not vote him?

[buldermar]

Mollie Wagon:
Hiraki, Jun, Slandaar, Theomoaner, Smashbard, Buldermar, Elieson, Telo, Shinori

Elieson Wagon:
Hiraki, NJAC, Maenara, Shinori.


There is no common denominator of one player being on all 4 wagons. But I didn’t exactly allow the Elieson wagon to gain enough steam to draw any real correlations between it.

However, between the three major wagons of the game thus far, here are the commonalities.

Buldermar.

If there is a case to be made about opportunistic scum, Buldermars the only one that fits the bill on the Numbers, Mollie and Shinori wagons. If we count the Elieson wagon, here’s a few more suspects that at least fit the bill 3 out of 4 wagons.

Hiraki (Mollie, Elieson, Shinori)

And

Maenara (Elieson, Shinori, Numbers)

So here’s my top 4 suspects for scummiest players, listed in order from Scummiest to least scummiest, based on Mollies wagon.

Maenara
Hiraki
Jun
Buldermar

Buldermars at the bottom because I originally had this guy pegged as town. But his recent drop in activity since the decline of the Shinori wagon is particularly disheartening.

Speaking of which, my top town read Day 1 was Theomoaner. And yet he has been all but non existent Day 2. Scum possibly hiding below the radar after a mislynch to avoid scrutiny and suspicion? I think it’s very possible.

For now, my vote stays on Jun until I finalize my conversation with him as to who he believes is scummy or not.

I was looking forward to questions, but none were posed. Some of you seem to suggest that I've been sheeping. Let me clarify something: I was one of two people to explicitly clarify on day 1 that I was going to vote Shino on day 2:

eleison
shinori
jun

This is absolutely terrible.

So you think I've been tunneling my scum buddy since I joined this game? Is that what this is? You think I'm doing the worst of all scum gambits day 1 and just following it through without ever changing my ideas on elieson? Why do you think both me and elieson are scum? What gives you logic that we are both scum? Seriously. This logic is terrible and just makes you more scummie than ever.

Elieson
Mcstab player slot (Forgot who subbed in)
And pirate Mollie.

##Unvote:
##Vote: Pirate Mollie.

Die.

You're dodging my questions regarding your vote on me, yet you "forgot" who subbed in for Mcstab. Then you throw shit at pirate mollie for not following the game close enough when you don't even know who is in it. Finally, you neglect asking pirate mollie for a claim. I'm going to vote you on day 2 if I'm alive.

I think your case on me being opportunistic is thin. If it came from someone else, I'd be inclined to consider it scummy, but as of now I think the mason claims are plausible. I think that the other people who went along with your assessment and jumped to the conclusion that I'm sheeping without 1) asking me questions and/or 2) ISO'ing me, has their alignments skewed towards scum for this reason.

I know that this does invalidate your analysis of voting pattherns, but I was one of few to explicitly state my reasons for voting numbers initially and my requirements of him for this vote to be moved. More specifically, while others unconcerned with how he explained the incident, I asked him for an alternative plausible explanation to the one I had presented myself. He provided such and I moved my vote. As noted, this does not invalidate your analysis, but I think it's a misunderstanding that I've been sheeping when I've been more explicit about my reasons than most and consistent with doing what I said I would.

I'll happily raise my level of activity. If there is anything specific you'd like my opinion of, I'll also promise to read into it in details and elaborate on my thoughts.

[buldermar]

Correction: I know that this does [not] invalidate

[buldermar]

Correction2: while others [were] unconcerned

I'm not going to write posts again when I'm this hangover, lol.

[theomoaner]

Missed this out that I thought was important too.

In post #89 where Hiraki has his little shout at Maenara there is one bit that is a massive standout.

Meanwhile, Eleison, whose only noteable post so far has been blatant breadcrumbing/softclaiming, criticizes the play of everyone else, and then continues to ... ... Do absolutely nothing? Not try to lead by example at all?

I take it back. It was probably an over-reaction on my part.

The usual reaction of town to someone attempting to out a PR on on page 2 of a game would be to jump down their throat (?) but here we have someone, noted for their use of any excuse to rage at another player

praising

another player for highlighting breadcrumbing/softclaiming.

[qwints]

I think that the other people who went along with your assessment and jumped to the conclusion that I'm sheeping without 1) asking me questions and/or 2) ISO'ing me, has their alignments skewed towards scum for this reason.

Who, if anyone, did this?

Rereading Hiraki in iso, I don't see a pattern of global abuse. Posters who were abused (insulted or cursed at) include:

• EPM (now qwints)
  PMy (now combinatorialEnigma)
  Mcstab (now buldermar)
  Pirate Molly
  Theomoaner
  Smashbard
  Maemara

So 7 of the 15 players who could have been abused were attacked. Now, he interacted with 5 others - Elieson, NJAC, Slandaar, Shinori and Jun - but I wouldn't label those posts as attacks or abuse. That leave thurhame (now 10506670), telo, and dividizzle. Dividizzle is never mentioned, but he has been lurking a lot. Hiraki lightly defends both (thurhame/10506670) in 408 and Telo in 145 and 681. In addition, there are a lot of comments that grudgingly complement on their play or find it understandable.

While I do see your argument for a Hiraki-Telo-Jun connection given that Hiraki has 'defended' Telo and Jun by calling them inexperienced, Hiraki has done something similar for (thurhame/(now 10506670)). Hirkai also criticized Jun in 168. So, I think that there is some good evidence about connections between players here, but I'm reluctant to draw conclusions until we flip one of the group. I could certainly be persuaded to switch my vote to 10506670 or Telo since I think both of them have been scummy.

[buldermar]

I think that the other people who went along with your assessment and jumped to the conclusion that I'm sheeping without 1) asking me questions and/or 2) ISO'ing me, has their alignments skewed towards scum for this reason.

Who, if anyone, did this?

People voting for Shinori that sound plausible: Maenara, Rubik, partially Eleison, Smash

People who I think need to stop taking drugs: Buldermar

Need to read up on others like Buldermar, Maenara, Eleison, who I think are sheeping along with the scum led train.

Also should be pointed out, that aside from Smash and Eleison, the two that were on the final Mollie wagon as well as the Shinori wagon that rapidly gained steam were buldemar and hiraki. Buldemar is on the Mollie wagon despite not really having too much fault with Mollie (correct me if I'm wrong), but he states that he'd rather see a Mollie lynch than no lynch. Then on day 2 proceeds to go right after shinori. I may be grasping at straws but that seems like blaming shinori for an incorrect mollie lynch that he participated on but distanced himself from.

Here are some examples.

[qwints]

OK. I thought you were saying people who had followed Sham after the post you cited (838). Do you still think Shinori is the most likely scum? What do you think of hiraki and maenara being last on/first on the shinori wagon?

[qwints]

EBWOP "followed Smashbard"

Actually, let me direct that last question to hiraki and maenara:

Why did you join the shinori wagon and why did you get off?

[NJAC]

I could certainly be persuaded to switch my vote to 10506670 or Telo since I think both of them have been scummy.

I see your point on Telo, but still think Mae is a better lynch. Actually without a replacement there's nothing we can get from Telo's slot, so I'm not sure a wagon makes sense here.

I'd like to see your case on Thurhame/numbers, is that the whole "scumslip/scumtell" thing?

[Maenara]

EBWOP "followed Smashbard"

Actually, let me direct that last question to hiraki and maenara:

Why did you join the shinori wagon and why did you get off?

Because Shinori had done just about the worst thing you could do, and he was being a thoroughly horrible player; even going as far as to state that he didn't care if he was lynched.

I jumped off because his defense genuinely seemed town-like, and hence, I'd gained what I wanted from the wagon - A better read on Shinori.

[qwints]

I see your point on Telo, but still think Mae is a better lynch. Actually without a replacement there's nothing we can get from Telo's slot, so I'm not sure a wagon makes sense here.

I'm assuming someone replaces Telo before the day ends, and I find having some replace in to a game where there's already a wagon on them generates all sorts of useful information.

I'd like to see your case on Thurhame/numbers, is that the whole "scumslip/scumtell" thing?

It's weakest which is why I only called him suspicious. I don't find the "scumslip" thing persuasive, but I do find the death of Slandaar a data point worth remembering.

@theomoaner:
Jun's temporary pressure vote on evilpacman isn't a scumtell. He did the same thing in my last game.

Defending a player early on is scummy to me, especially when it's using meta rather than attacking the accuser.

I think my previous Townread on Jun was bias from last game where he was Town. He can be null for now. I still don't see much in the arguments against him.

This may be the most non-committal post of the game. Non-committal posts are scummy.

That being said, I am willing to move the game forward to some more interesting discussions by voting Pirate Mollie. And I will do so:

VOTE: pirate mollie

The replacement continues waffling. He votes "to move the game forward" rather than because he thinks someone is scummy.

We're in big trouble if this keeps up though. Anti-town behavior is distracting us from any real scum discussion. Hoping that we can move past that next day.

VOTE: Shinori

Another vote for policy reasons father than because he thinks the target is scummy.

[buldermar]

OK. I thought you were saying people who had followed Sham after the post you cited (838). Do you still think Shinori is the most likely scum? What do you think of hiraki and maenara being last on/first on the shinori wagon?

I consider these posts somewhat scummy:

How does Eleison/NJAC/Unknown sound?

Shinori seems pretty cleared town by now. Thanks for deciding to become useful.

UNVOTE: Shinori

VOTE: Eleison

Yep yep. Early game was terrible, he's trying to fly under the radar after discussing it with his scumbuddies. He needs to die, so sayeth the Lord Bandwagon.

Thank you for actually giving a damn.

Unvote, Vote: Elesion

I think Shinori is at least top 3. This in conjunction with him displaying extreme anti-town behavior and a flip providing a decent amount of information (e.g. we can eliminate a decent amount of scum-team permutations) makes him the optimal person to lynch in my opinion.

[NJAC]

@Mae, I see you dodging my question, please answer it:

Also, NJAC is still totally scum for doing nothing, reappearing at the most convenient of times, and being unwilling to do anything risky at all.

When are those convenient times and why are they exactly convenient for me? Did I mention I had RL stuff to deal with?

Also, besides me who do you think is scummy right now?