Open 449: Switch Mafia (Game Over)

[greygnarl]

I'm starting doubt my read on Hyperion. I'm going to check his scum meta real quick.

[Voidedmafia]

Votecount 3.02:

Malakittens - greygnarl
gregnarl - Malakittens
Havingfitz - Tajun
Tajun - Siv

Not Voting- Andrew, Hyperion, havingfitz

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch and to no-lynch.

The deadline is in (expired on 2012-11-29 14:04:10), or by 12:05 PM on November 29th, 2012.

[Hyperion]

Sorry i havent posted in a while, wrestling go tin thw ay. will catch up tomorrow

[havingfitz]

OK...a little VCA to see if anything stands out from the first two days....

FYI, I'm looking at the peak wagons on any known alignments and I'm treating malpa as town because in scum's eyes he would have been just another mislynch.

Five known alignments (not counting the N0 casualties) in

malpascp

,

Aunt Jemina

,

Potato

,

Daumis

, and

Jal

.

Jal

and

Potato

did not have any wagons of note. Only living player to put a vote on

Jal

was greygnarl. Only living players to have a vote on

Potato

were an extremely brief RVS vote by greygnarl and a majority of the day vote (post 6-448) by Mala.

Daumis

wagon #1 reached L-1 very briefly and early in the game.

Daumis

wagon #2 reached L-2 later in D1.

Aunt Jemina

#1 reached L-1 (pre-claim).

Aunt Jemina

#2 reached L-1 (post-claim???).
The lone

malpascp

wagon #1 reached SK lynch.

Daumis

wagon #3 reached mislynch D2.

I'm considering all of these mislynches from scum's POV so scum is just as likely to be on the sk wagon as the mislynch wagons.

Daumis

wagon #1 - Tajun,

Jal

,

malpascp

,

Potato

, andrew and greygnarl

Daumis

wagon #2 - andrew,

Potato

, Tajun,

Jal

, Siveure

Aunt Jemina

#1 - greygnarl, Malakittens,

Daumis

, Tajun,

Potato

, andrew

Aunt Jemina

#2 - greygnarl, Malakittens,

Daumis

, Tajun, andrew,

malpascp

malpascp

wagon #1 - greygnarl, Siveure, Tajun,

Potato

,

Daumis

,

Aunt Jemina

, Hyperion

D1 wagon thoughts: Potato was on all three wagons at one point or another. Which fits considering he was scum. The same can be said about greygnarl and Tajun. Andrew was on both town mislynches while Siv and Malakittens both appear on one wagon each. It’s interesting to note that the only vote on Aunt Jemina AFTER her vig claim was mapascp. Not sure if that led to his quick lynch but all 7 of his votes came after he vote AJ. I doubt all three scum would push malpascp’s ~mislynch so my guess is there is probably at least one more scum on malpascp’s wagon and therefore probably one off it. On it I would lean towards greygnarl or Tajun. Off I would lean towards Andrew (mostly due to POE as I know I’m town and I’m leaning town on Mala). Also of note…malpascp had a small wagon earlier in the day where he got up to three votes on him. His three voters were grey , Siv and Tajun….all three of whom spent a fair amount of D1 on malpascp.

Daumis

wagon #3 - Tajun, andrew,

Jal

, greygnarl, Malakittens

D2 wagon thoughts:

Tajun and greygnarl appear again, they’ve been on all the major mislynch wagons, along with Mala and andrew. Mala’s hammer was probably the first thing he has done the entire game that made me question his alignment. I still lean more town towards Mala but I would prefer to not try and decide between him and andrew. With greygnarl and Tajun I’m not as concerned because at closer look they both are suspect. Still leaning greygnarl though soooo

VOTE: greygnarl

[Tajun]

K…not a lot of catching up to do from today. Mislynch today = LYLO tomorrow as someone has said. I’m going to respond to Tajun first and then look over the last two days a bit closer.

Buuuut, with Jal flipping cop, I am now free to do this

VOTE: havingfitz

who would have been getting crucified the entire game by me if I didn't have a PR read on him. Should stop doing those really.

Tajun…what made you think I was a PR? Be specific if you can.

But for the fact you thought I was a PR you say you would have been “crucifying me the entire game”…so let’s see what game-long reasons

(bolded by me below0

you had for wanting to crucify me:

1) -

Case is mostly gut, but it is

very strong gut.

2) -

Also, he is

trying to pretend he understands the game mechanics (with the interaction between scum and SK and whatever), but 706 proves that is a lie.

3) -

Post 699 he goes hard against Jal,

feels pretty fake really

.

4) -

Also, there is

almost no interaction between him and Potatohou

, and what is there is a couple questions and a weak scum read.

5) -

Not to mention 194, where he oddly places the "cop investigate pota" bit without any explanation,

6) -

then

asks for reads without giving any.

7) -

Everyone should ISO him, there is no town there.

1) -

“Very strong gut”. Can’t argue with that logic. Good work.

2) -

I beg your pardon. An ad-hom AND a misrep in one line. KMA. IMO I do understand how this game works. It’s pretty fcuking clear given that it’s an open game and everything is completely out in the open. There is no lie thank you.

3) -

Feels pretty fake really. Can’t argue with that logic either other than to say I disagree and there was nothing fake about my exchange with Jal. In fact…as I type this response, I wonder if your sudden interest in me is linked to Jal in more ways than you mention. Ie I wonder if I’m being set up.

4) -

I don’t interact a great deal with everyone in a game. In fact, it’s not unusual for me to get flack for this. I tend to focus on my main suspects or people of interest. People who I have a town feel for or am uncertain of I tend to stand back from…especially on D1. How does my interaction with Potato compare to everyone else’s participation with him? And is that a reliable scumtell for all players or does it vary per individual?

5) -

This is the earliest mention of suspicions towards me (despite the “entire game” suspicions). How is this suspicious? I suspected GG for trying to steer the cop. IMO that is scummy. And the fact he was steering the cop towards Potato means nothing given the switching dynamic of this game.

6) -

Misrep. I’ve been giving reads throughout the game. Ex: Daumis, GG, malpa-Siv-Hyperion, Krazy, Tajun and Jal, Andrew, Potato, Hyperion, Mala and Tajun, GG-Tajun-Daumis, Several players AND Jal.

7) -

Please do.

tl:dr;

That’s a shit case Tajun. Nothing you’ve mentioned above holds any water and it seems like it’s manufactured from nothing. Gut? Feels fake? You seem so in touch with your suspicions. It’s a beautiful thing.

FOS

Tajun

1) Strong gut based on your posts. Your first 20 posts of the game have a total of 4 with any content worth mentioning, and even that is pretty weak. The reason I don't have a case on you is because you haven't posted enough content to make a case out of.

2) We all know the mechanics unless we are having epic failures. The difference is you can't think of a reason why SK would turn the cop on. Hmm, maybe he is town action immune?

3) Yes, I killed Jal to set you up. Not because he is a town leader, or suspicious of me, but rather to make you look guilty! Well f*ing played.

4) It seemed out of place, but it's not the meat of the case, I'll grant you. Just jumped out when I ISO'ed you two together.

5) My bad, I misread that.

6) Most of your posts you don't though. This is my major issue, you seem to ask a tonne of questions, then not really follow up with interrogations etc, just kept the same suspicions. It reads as trying to fit in without doing much.

Specifically, that is why I thought you were a PR as well. In a lot of ways, PR and scum have similar goals: Fit in, don't draw attention, don't piss people off too much, do their damage at night. I definitely read that in your posts. The reason I thought you were PR, rather than scum, was that you left the AJ wagon and kept pressure on GG, rather than act to get a wagon through. It seemed like you cared about the town while still trying not to stand out, ie a PR.

Quick question based on your VCA: Do you think GG and I are a scumteam?

Chainsaw defense isn't always scummy. It's not a huge scum tell to me. Same goes with aTe,

The point here was the timing. Why point this out now, after I make this case, and not say yesterday, when you knew all this anyway? The interactions between the two of you give me serious pause here.

@Siv: I'm scummy for sheeping? I do hope you appreciate the irony here, especially considering that I have been blatantly pushing my agenda the entire game.

[havingfitz]

Quick Tajun question answer: I think it strongly suggests that at least one of you are scum. I already said I thought there was one scum TBD both on and off the malpascp wagon which would suggest you probably weren't both scum together.

[andrew94]

tbh i think sirveure is more scummy than grey (and grey is so scummy)

[Hyperion]

POsting from the hospital. I have 3 fractured ribs. I'm OK, but dont have energy to post tonight, will catch up tomorrow. I promise.

[Malakittens]

Spoiler:

I'm fine with a lynch on Malpa or Hyperion today, would be willing to compromise on Daumis and possibly greygnarl.

Well this is interesting. Can you elaborate on the andrew scum read?

What about gg since he's closer to lynch?
Willing to believe the claim for now.

Goddamnit, just lynch GreyGnarl since we're not going to get a lynch otherwise.

VOTE: greygnarl

You want a lynch or not?
If your answer is yes, please vote GG.
If your answer is no, continue to vote a wagon that won't reach majority by deadline.

^ Spoiler up there are posts by the hydra.

First post represents my PoE that I will be using.
Since Malp was a SK and Daumis was a town.
There's at least one scum between GG and Hyperion.

Second post:

I find this is scummy in of itself. The defense, well what I find of a "defense", of Andrew makes me question the fact we have a possible scum Andrew.

Three, Four, Five and Sixth:

Are posts that I read that smell of scum distancing scum.
What I also find funny is that even though he "believes" the claim of AJ, he never unvoted her until he voted GG.

Also, I interesting found a quote where Pota is okay regarding a Siv lynch because Siv is useless. Not sure what that leads me to think of Siv. So labeling him as possible scum for now.

Calls Tajun town.
Calls me town.
Doesn't really give a read on Fritz or Andrew.

Scum rests in {GG, Hyper, Siv}
Chance of scum in {Andrew, Tajun, Fritz}

I think Andrew is unlikely.

Siv calling out GG for sheeping him in post 774 is a slight scum tell.

FOS: Siv

I call the scum team now: GG, Siv, Tajun o;

[greygnarl]

Yeah but Pota was scum.

[Malakittens]

I'm aware. I know how to read the mod's post.

What aren't you understanding in my prior post?

[andrew94]

i can go for siv

vote siv

[havingfitz]

Save me an ISO andrew....what is your case on Siv again?

[Tajun]

Mala, you do realize that there are two scum left right (ie not three)? Also, why do you list the scum as in {GG, Hyper, Siv} and place me in your scumteam guess?

I am one hundred percent against a Siv lynch, he is the absolute last person I would lynch right now.

Save me an ISO andrew....what is your case on Siv again?

This.

Fitz's reactions give me pause. I'll have to go through some ISOs, feel like I am missing something. Back soon.

[greygnarl]

I'm aware. I know how to read the mod's post.

What aren't you understanding in my prior post?

Yeah so there's one scum left.

Tajun knows.

[Malakittens]

Oh right, I meant the final two scum between Siv, GG, Tajun. I was sleepy as fuck when I got to the end of that analysis.

There's two scum left and not one, GG..

I'm really doubting OM's town read on Tajun.

[greygnarl]

You're acting like Pota flipped town. That's weird.

[Malakittens]

No, I'm not? How do you figure that?..

[greygnarl]

Well scum's reads aren't really real, they're fake.

[Malakittens]

I agree. I been using a new tactic to find scum and well it worked out perfect for that game that I replaced in.

Scum have a good chance at trying to distance during each and every day. If scum know they are going to die they usually send out mixed/fake reads. One partner usually is located in a scum read of a post and sometimes, it's rare though, depends on the experience of a scum player they will distance another partner and call them town.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p4468559

[Tajun]

OK, sticking with my guns on Fitz. A few townlike posts right now doesn't confirm him one way or the other, and I don't like his arguments for much of the game. On other people:

Siv: I am unwilling to lynch him, I doubt he would openly sheep a scumbuddy (see 180) and he seems to understand the game well enough not to screw the pooch night 1.

GG: I really

really

don't see the case here. His aggressiveness and posting in general scream town at the top of their lungs to me. Could

anyone

please explain why they are suspicious of him in a sensible manner?

Hyperion: I like his entrance and his analysis, and his interactions with Om. Betting town here.

Andrew: Possible scum, but frankly I am not sure why the vig would have been left on if he were, and I don't see "i wouldnt clear anyone based on scum not putting on vig switch." coming from scum who are the obvious target if we do as he says. Could be WIFOM, but I bet town here.

Mala: PoE? God, I hate PoE, but it seems right right now. Her interactions with Fitz make me think possible scum team, although I wasn't thinking that from Om. My best guess for the partner.

[Voidedmafia]

Pre-emptive prod on Siv since his prod timer will fall when I'm asleep.

[havingfitz]

Looking over things again. This is my only active game atm. The weekend seems to have really killed discussion.

GG and Siv...what do you think of each other? If you've already mentioned it a link or updated read would be appreciated.

[havingfitz]

K…not a lot of catching up to do from today. ▶ Show quoted text Daumis, GG, malpa-Siv-Hyperion, Krazy, Tajun and Jal, Andrew, Potato, Hyperion, Mala and Tajun, GG-Tajun-Daumis, Several players AND Jal.

7) -

Please do.

tl:dr;

That’s a shit case Tajun. Nothing you’ve mentioned above holds any water and it seems like it’s manufactured from nothing. Gut? Feels fake? You seem so in touch with your suspicions. It’s a beautiful thing.

FOS

Tajun

1) Strong gut based on your posts. Your first 20 posts of the game have a total of 4 with any content worth mentioning, and even that is pretty weak. The reason I don't have a case on you is because you haven't posted enough content to make a case out of.

2) We all know the mechanics unless we are having epic failures. The difference is you can't think of a reason why SK would turn the cop on. Hmm, maybe he is town action immune?

3) Yes, I killed Jal to set you up. Not because he is a town leader, or suspicious of me, but rather to make you look guilty! Well f*ing played.

4) It seemed out of place, but it's not the meat of the case, I'll grant you. Just jumped out when I ISO'ed you two together.

5) My bad, I misread that.

6) Most of your posts you don't though. This is my major issue, you seem to ask a tonne of questions, then not really follow up with interrogations etc, just kept the same suspicions. It reads as trying to fit in without doing much.

Specifically, that is why I thought you were a PR as well. In a lot of ways, PR and scum have similar goals: Fit in, don't draw attention, don't piss people off too much, do their damage at night. I definitely read that in your posts. The reason I thought you were PR, rather than scum, was that you left the AJ wagon and kept pressure on GG, rather than act to get a wagon through. It

seemed like you cared about the town

while still trying not to stand out, ie a PR.

1) So gut. Intuition. How did that work for you with your Daumis, Aunt Jemina an Malpascp pushes? Granted town (and scum) got lucky on Malpascp. I obviously disagree with your “gut” and the lack of tangible scummy posts makes it easy for you to throw out suspicions. I find myself giving reads, asking questions, providing opinion and trying to progress the game. To keep activity positive. How is any of that scummy?

2) My point was and still is…how does my Post 706 prove anything with regard to my understanding of the game’s mechanics is a lie? The fact you might not understand what my point was doesn’t mean it’s a contradiction of anything I said earlier (ie a lie). When I made my comments in Post 706 everyone knew that the SK had selected NK-immune. I take this to mean he was vulnerable to the vig and cop. Which is the point I was making. That the SK would not counteract the scum switches on the cop or vig for fear of being a target of either. . In your comment above you say maybe he was town action immune which we know is not the case. Which I knew was not the case in Post 706 and which is what I assumed the SK would elect to do when I read over the mechanics.

Maybe I’m just not understanding your point. If you for some reason still want to purport my knowledge of the game mechanics somehow represents a lie, please elaborate in a separate post

3) No…you very well could have killed him because he was a “town leader” or

suspicious of you

. But trying to accuse my exchange with him as fake is ridiculous. How would you know? I stand by all the points I made in that exchange with Jal. Why would I have killed Jal? Essentially your “feels fake” is another intuition tell you are proposing against me.

4) “Seems”….OK…so more feely than touchy? Using your intuition/gut again? And you didn’t answer this

” How does my interaction with Potato compare to everyone else’s participation with him? And is that a reliable scumtell for all players or does it vary per individual?”

5) So a misrep on your part. Unintentional I'm sure you would insist. But admittedly not a point against me.

6) Most of my points I don’t though?! WTF are you talking about? First off…who gives reads in “most of their posts?” No one I would wager. But your point was that I ask for reads but don’t give any. That was an absolute. I’ve proven that to be wrong by listing a dozen posts where I DID give a read. So another misrep on your part which you are still perpetuating despite proof the point is false.

Tl:dr;

So in review of your 6 points against me…. Points 1, 3 and 4 are based on feelings and can not be proven. Though I feel I have argued point 1 well. 3 WIFOM on top of the original “fake” accusation, and 4 is just ridiculous. As for your other points, 2 is an ad-hom and misrep on your part that has yet to be proven and 5 was a misrep that you withdrew. And 6 was another misrep which was resoundingly proven to be inaccurate. So all your points are shit. And when did caring about town become a bad thing? You should try it.

[havingfitz]

Zzzzzzzzzzzz