Micro 71: Lucid Dreamers - Night 4

[Zoidberg]

@Hawk: qwints' actions aside, if I were scum, why would I want to clear 2 people? Even if I were scumbuddies with qwints, what's the scum motivation for clearing Siv on D2? Particularly when he said he was admitting he was scum, repeatedly and I could have just let things go on for a bit, to see what happened. Also, why would we, as the scumteam, draw attention to ourselves, by voting in tandem, like that? Does that really look like a coordinated action, to you?

Soooo much WIFOM in this statement.

Remember that the mod confirmed yesterday that the mafia can converse whenever it wants.

IMO daytalk means they can coordinate on the fly, so super-convoluted plans will be more likely, not less.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Made myself a dayvig with as many shots as I could have... one.

Who should I be shooting?

[Zoidberg]

Unless we have a guilty, I'm not sure we should be vigging.

[ProHawk]

Unless we have a guilty, I'm not sure we should be vigging.

Agreed.

[qwints]

None of the 4 investigations were on Mist or Piggy. That leaves 7 people. There are 7C2 = 21 possible scum teams. If the actual scumteam does not contain one of the 4 investigated people, there are 3C2 = 3 scumteams. The probability of that happening is 3/21 ~= 14.3%. Your calculation doesn't take into account that the investigations were all on different people.

I was answering the question: what is the likelihood that 3 independent random investigations on night 1 and 1 on night 2 would come up town? The question I think you're trying to answer is: what is the prior probability of the scum groups being one of the 3 remaining possibilities? I don't think that's the correct question.

With Zoidberg's results, the odds are around 20% for my question and they're 1/21 for Mit's question. If everyone is telling the truth and got accurate results, we now know that Empking and Mitillos are scum. That would mean that scum-Mit cleared two townies and that mafia no-killed yesterday.

[Empking]

Turned myself untargetable again.

[ProHawk]

Just want to live out this game on your awesome day play Emp?

[qwints]

Let's get those last two actions in before we go further.

Mitillos: Siveure and qwints are innocent
Zoidberg: Scream and ProHawk are innocent
Scream: Zoidberg in innocent

Siveure: no action
Empking: made himself untargeteable

qwints: made Mist reflective

Mist: post-restricted Siveure

Mitillos: investigated Siveure - got innocent

ProHawk: made himself a bomb

Scream: investigated Zoidberg - got innocent

Zoidberg: investigated Scream - got innocent

Mitillos: investigated qwints - got innocent

qwints: made everyone who targeted him bulletproof"

ProHawk: redirected Mitillos's action to qwints

screamlampost:?

Empking: made himself untargetable

Siveure DtTrikyp: ?

Zoidberg: investigated ProHawk- got innocent

[Empking]

Just want to live out this game on your awesome day play Emp?

If the scum keep on trying to kill me I have a duty to keep them from managing it.

[ProHawk]

So do you maintain that you are the reason that there was no night kill again?

[Empking]

So do you maintain that you are the reason that there was no night kill again?

Nobody else seems to have an explanation so yes, or at least I will if we're all alive after voting and he other tricks.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Hangon.

At minimum my vig gives us two lynches before night. Is that a bad thing?

Also, qwints, I made myself 1shot dayvig.

I'm half wondering whether just to vig mitsy (I can call you this now that mist is dead right?), based on all the investigations. Neh, I'll do it on whoever we agree to lynch.

[Mitillos]

@Emp: Look at qwints' claimed action, then look at mine.

@Siv: Just call me Mit, will you?

[qwints]

Let's hear scream's action before proceeding further.

[Empking]

@Emp: Look at qwints' claimed action, then look at mine.

S'pose so. Was your original target qwints?

[screamlampost]

I became bulletproof. Because I was kinda conf-town.

qwints-Mit is being fucking hillarious.

[qwints]

Siveure: no action
Empking: made himself untargeteable

qwints: made Mist reflective

Mist: post-restricted Siveure

Mitillos: investigated Siveure - got innocent

ProHawk: made himself a bomb

Scream: investigated Zoidberg - got innocent

Zoidberg: investigated Scream - got innocent

Mitillos: investigated qwints - got innocent

qwints: made everyone who targeted him bulletproof"

ProHawk: redirected Mitillos's action to qwints

screamlampost: made himself bulletproof

Empking: made himself untargetable

Siveure DtTrikyp: made himself 1 shot day-vig

Zoidberg: investigated ProHawk- got innocent

Siv, how are you conf-town?

[qwints]

And the reason I did what I did was because I thought there was a good chance multiple town players would target me with investigations or possibly vig-shots after yesteday's hammer. I really thought Myst was a nightmare.

Some night action analysis:

The only person who scum could have tried to kill on night one is Emping. If scum had shot at PH or Mist, they would have died.

Scum could have shot at Empking, scream or Mit on Night 2.

We now have 5 innocent results - meaning that

a) Mit and Empking are scum
b) a cop is lying
c) a cop got bad results (e.g. scum turned into a godfather)

[ProHawk]

Piggy's MisLynch Wagon: PiggyGal15 - 5 (qwints, Empking, Siverue DtTrikyp, Mitillos,

Mist7676

)

Mist's MisLynch Wagon: Mist7676 - 5 (Empking, ScreamIampost, Zoidberg, Mitillos, qwints)

Of both the mislynches, Empking, Mit, and Qwints are on both wagons. We need to be looking closer at these players as the probability of scum on these wagons is high.

Empking has been high on my scum list since D1 and his anti-town night actions aren't helping me see any differently. Making himself untargetable is an extremely self-preservationist type of attitude, but it could be just how he plays town.

Mit has been playing pro-town, but I am getting scum reads from his end of the day quick-vote on Mist.

Qwints has been playing town, but I also don't like the coordinated hit he made with Mit. His defense of lynching Mist also strikes me as scummy.

Between the three, I think Mit will have the highest chance of flipping scum as well as semi-validate his night actions should he flip town.

[Mitillos]

You call it an end-of-the-day quickvote, but I didn't expect someone to hammer so quickly after I voted. Also, if you look back to D2, you'll see that I didn't want us getting on a wagon early on, to test if votes had been tampered with (something we may want to do again today), even though I expressed my suspicions about Mist. Yeah, I was wrong about her, just as I was wrong about Piggy, but being wrong isn't scummy. So, no, your arguments against me are not good. Town-motivated, I think, but not good.

Vote: Empking

This is not an accusatory vote. It is simply to test votecounts again. If scum planned to interfere with voting, then they may feel safer doing it for today, since we already checked yesterday.

[qwints]

Lynching someone on the day of the deadline isn't a "co-ordinated hit". I was leaving for BGG.con, and I wanted to make sure we lynched someone before the deadilne.

[ProHawk]

Ok, even if you don't think the last quick votes were scummy, odds are one of you three are scum.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Mit

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Qwints, I'm not conf-town. I fail to see the relevance? Oh, you're asking scream. Um.

VOTE: Prohawk

Circular voting yay!

[qwints]

Yeah, I meant to ask scream.

[Zoidberg]

Modnote: The holidays equal me working a lot. Expect votecounts sparsely.

Vote: Empking

This is not an accusatory vote. It is simply to test votecounts again. If scum planned to interfere with voting, then they may feel safer doing it for today, since we already checked yesterday.

We're not actually going to wait for a votecount, are we? Votecounts in this game were rare to begin with... we could be waiting days.