Mini 1390: Game Over

[absta101]

Vig Cheery

[Idiotking]

I agree. There is no point in not confirming a confirmable role.

[TheTrollie]

hey btw, if absta flips town, slandaar should be under the microscope tomorrow
if absta flips scum, slandaar should be under the microscope tomorrow

Slandaar needs to be a focus of D2 no matter what

[nhammen]

Vote Count 1.14

absta101(6): _Sherlock_, Tommy, kwll, TheTrollie, JacobSavage, Idiotking

TheTrollie(2): Cheery Dog, Abaddon
Abaddon(2): Slandaar, absta101

not voting (3): Kinetic, toxictaipan, Deltabacon

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.
Deadline is in

(expired on 2012-11-18 17:30:00)

@Mod

Can you delete the above post please.

Done

Also, prodding Abaddon for the third time... This one doesn't really matter though, since day is almost over.

[TheTrollie]

is there a prod on kinetic

[nhammen]

He does not need a prod yet. His prod deadline hits 30 minutes before the day deadline.

[absta101]

Toxic was on my waggon. I'll vote for him :/

VOTE: absta101

[absta101]

consider that Toxic's hammer*

Also, I'm town.

[nhammen]

Final Vote Count of Day 1

absta101(7): _Sherlock_, Tommy, kwll, TheTrollie, JacobSavage, Idiotking, absta101

TheTrollie(2): Cheery Dog, Abaddon
Abaddon(1): Slandaar

not voting (3): Kinetic, toxictaipan, Deltabacon

You feel compelled to attack each other, and at the beginning, each of these attacks is random. But eventually they become more and more focused and violent, until you finally decide to kill. Unfortunately, your choice for who to kill was not optimal, and you realize this too late. Now, feeling the loss of a member of this village, you decide to sleep for the night, and see what the next day brings.

absta101

has been lynched. He was a

Vanilla Townie

If you are in any group with Night Talk, you may now communicate in the quicktopic provided for that group. Night ends in

(expired on 2012-11-21 14:00:00)

. Please get any Night Actions to me by that time.

[nhammen]

When the next day dawns you awaken in the village, and there are fewer houses. The houses that contained Tommy and Cheery Dog are both gone. You know that the Mod wishes you to continue playing this cruel game, even though you have lost three of the members of this town. And so, you now need to decide on who to lynch.

Tommy

has been killed. He was a

Vanilla Townie

Cheery Dog

has been killed. He was a

Vanilla Townie

It is now Day 2.

Vote Count 2.1

Not Voting(10): Abaddon, toxictaipan, Idiotking, Deltabacon, _Sherlock_, kwll, TheTrollie, Kinetic, JacobSavage, Slandaar

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.
Deadline is in

(expired on 2012-12-08 15:00:00)

[Deltabacon]

First thing I think two ask when I see those flips is: Who did you shoot, Trollie?

[Deltabacon]

Spelling fail, replace the two with a to, obviously.

[TheTrollie]

Cheery. About to leave for tgiving. Have long post about my thought process. I wrote everything down before making up my mind. fuck though I was hoping he'd flip scum. Btw I lied yesterday to avoid nk. I'm a regular vig.

[TheTrollie]

VOTE: abbadon explanation forthcoming. Slandaar also on my scum list though not sure if that team makes sense have to check

[_Sherlock_]

Well, crap. My scum reads have been way off.

I'm on vacation (Disney World!), but here's an updated reads list:

TOWN
Idiot
Delta
kwll
Trollie

PROBABLY TOWN
toxic
Jacob
Slandaar

...which only leaves two players. Which means I'm wrong about someone.

Scum is Abaddon, Kinetic, and {toxic, Jacob, Slandaar}.

VOTE: Kinetic

[JacobSavage]

can I ask trollie why the change from slaander must be looked at?

[Kinetic]

I'm still catching up (I know, kill me), but I have some reads from early game. Here are my reads so far:

toxictaipan - #53, Whenever someone says "why would scum do X", I always think, "Why are you saying something is less likely for a dumb scum, then a dumb townie." Reads as scummy and protective. Not every single move made by scum is calculated for the best possible benefit.

Doesn't give me a lot of faith in Tommy either.

Toic's #67 reads scummy as hell. "I will not answer your questions unless there are more people pressuring me".

Slandaar #76: I am starting to dislike scum/town motivations. Most people use thme incorrectly, as Slandaar does here. Remembering/forgetting a vote, or why you're pursuing someone is irrelevant of alignment. There isn't a greater motivation to remember for either side, and the points he made were simply wrong. This general statement rings false to me, and therefore scummy.

Page 4 - Is this seriously a chest-beating exercise over who ended the RVS. What the fuck? I am embarrassed my slot took part in it.

#85 reads... oddly. There are some townie points, but also some things that grate me. The issue I'm finding is that while grating, I don't quite find them scummy. I suppose ultimately, I'm reading it neutrally, leaning town here. I disagree with some of his conclusions, but at least it's something of an analysis. It's just not very good.

Abaddon #86 + 88 gets townie points for calling toxic on his bullshit analysis.

I'm about 6 pages in and reading a bit more now.

[_Sherlock_]

There's also the possibility that I'm right in the townreads, but Trollie is an SK. Which I could totally see.

[TheTrollie]

Still in car on way home (#traffic) will post my notes from last night in full when I return home

[toxictaipan]

@Kinetic: What did you expect me to say? I can't just yell out, "ALRIGHT, EVERYONE! GET READY AND BE ALERT! I'M ABOUT TO DO A REACTION TEST!" It defeats the purpose entirely.

VOTE: Kinetic
I haven't had the time to do a full analysis on the plethora of end of Day 1 bandwagons, but Radelle/Kinetic is still my top suspicion. It's going to take more than that little catchup post (and to be fair, I do realize he's not done reading yet) to convince me he's not scum.

[TheTrollie]

here are my notes from the night as i wrote them (i havent even re-read them yet). They are very stream-of-consciousness so sorry about that:

CD-thinking viging CD or Abb. Their quarrel early D1 makes both being scum unlikely.
-definitely dont want him in LYLO even if town, and with the hype over CD there is no reason for mafia to kill him. This alone might be enough to warrant the CD vig.
- most ppl expressed interest in directing my shot to CD
- A CD flip would help us analyze the wagon that was on me.
-CD may not get any more readable. rather let town use the lynch on someone we can discuss more.
-he picks up on arguments very opportunistically (ie. parama and there was one other)
- post #167 is very scummy, with his "you can string me up..." paragraph. Very scummy post
- his adamant stance on me is very strange because it stems from me wanting to gain town cred with his lynch. I showed him why that made no sense, he agreed it made no sense but still wouldnt budge. even after my claim he didnt budge. That being said, scum cheery knows absta is town and doesnt switch over to that wagon. maybe trying to gain town cred when absta is lynched? maybe trying to stay on the wagon of claimed PR? idk, this is weird as scum.
-did more meta on CD, I am starting to think my defense was pre-mature, he is a lot derpier than in some of his other games. Also makes references to his own townie-ness a lot more here
-If Cd flips town, Delta hopped on an easy target and then once I started in and recieved votes of my own, delta jumps on and becomes most vocal.
-CD jumps on right , then Abbadon

Side-note: need Kinetic action on D2 desperately, as I go through this stuff, I realize that Radelle is so crucial in this picture.
-not worth vigging Kinetic because it might be super easy to get a read on that slot once he starts participating


Abb-i have explained the scum-read, Absta and his town read slandaar start a Abbadon counterwagon. worry is that scumSlandaar is trying to gain town cred by preventing Absta lynch and at the same time directing our D2 mislynch
- total lurker

Side note: since Absta flipped Town, anyone against my lynch from the begining and on absta probtown

sidenote: CD and Abaddon are the two ppl still on my wagon in VC 1.14

Abadd wasnt active, slandaar and town absta on abaddon

any other good vigs?

_Sherlock_ - TOWN dont see him actively starting the absta wagon while there is already a huge town wagon. I understand him staying off of a town wagon, but starting a new one rather than going with one already in existance makes no sense as scum

Tommy - probtown - i like his analysis in post #454. i dont like that he doesnt support my abaddon wagon. Tommy's been giving me a lot of trouble from the beginning. Whenever logic says scum on him, my gut says town, and whenever logic says town, gut says scum. I think this will be easy to clarify as we see more flips though, since he is actually doing quite a lot of work in his posts.

Kwll - unsure - i had a gut town read at first but now not sure, he does switch from me to absta fairly quick, think that might be more likely town but idk, have to look at where that is in relation to my claim. I feel that most of the reasons to kill him would be the same as some of the reasons to kill CD, but I also think Kwll may get easier to read as the game goes on, and I think his flip would be less helpful than CD's flip.

JacobSavage - town - His one scummy thing is starting the wagon then hopping right off of it as it gains steam. overall though, i was pretty confident he was town, and I think his flip would be way less usefull than other's flips, plus hes a pretty solid town read so if hes town he might get NKed, definitely not killing him.

Idiotking - null - the only reason I think he is town is because of that one post where he calls everyone scummy. That seems likely to come from town, but can also be scum throwing shit at the walls to see what sticks. Hes certainly not the best kill target but i think D2 needs more Idiotking examination.

Absta-conftown-DEAD

CD- already discussed in full

Abadd- already discussed

Slandaar - Needs to be a focus of D2, he weilds a lot of town conrol for no apparent reason. Dont trust him.

Kinetic - Need to keep him alive to get info from him D2. unfortunately we have no idea what his play will be like but its not worth vigging someone before we know what their deal is.

Delta - I need to review delta. I have only one reason to think he is town and that may not have been a good one. If I vig CD though, we will get info on delta.

Conclusion:
Got lots of places to go for D2. vig of CD is best because
(1) good chance scum
(2) this is where town wanted to direct my kill (including absta who is now conftown)
(3) Given CD's posts, and voting patern (like not unvoting me ever D1), even a townCD is probably a detriment to town
(4) CD flip will be relatively informative.

Reasons not to vig CD
(1) Scum is going to expect CD vig.
not seen many scum docs in this forum.

k vig CD

[_Sherlock_]

Hmm.

Trollie, don't shoot any more unless you're, like, almost 100% sure that your target is scum. Your existence is already proven. Understood?

The fact that Trollie's kill went through most likely means that the scum don't have a Roleblocker; I doubt any scumteam could resist the WIFOM of there being no extra kill.

Also, there should no longer be any concerns about Trollie being Mafia. Trollie is not a lynch option today.

[TheTrollie]

add lurking to my abbadon case btw

[Kinetic]

@Kinetic: What did you expect me to say? I can't just yell out, "ALRIGHT, EVERYONE! GET READY AND BE ALERT! I'M ABOUT TO DO A REACTION TEST!" It defeats the purpose entirely.

VOTE: Kinetic
I haven't had the time to do a full analysis on the plethora of end of Day 1 bandwagons, but Radelle/Kinetic is still my top suspicion. It's going to take more than that little catchup post (and to be fair, I do realize he's not done reading yet) to convince me he's not scum.

Still catching up, but this reads like opportunistic scum. Even your "reaction test" didn't ring true so far. I don't like taking opinions into the read because it makes me think my opinion will color what I see, but you are clearly acting scummy.

[Kinetic]

Btw. VLA today and tomorrow for the holiday. I have my iPad, but its impossible to read and take notes. I'll keep current on new posts but don't expect my read to continue until Saturday.