Open 466: Nomination Mafia - Town Wins!

[Rainbowdash]

/confirm

Vote T12

[Rainbowdash]

Im actually cool with my vote.

@T12 - Your vote was entirely OMGUS, yes or no?

[Rainbowdash]

My vote is still is in the right spot, TAOS is very policy lynch worthy but when T12 is already enough of a scum read im happy going this direction. A scum flip from either is enough to snap lynch the other though.

Basically look at T12, most of the game is getting hung up on something that outside of a call for a policy lynch or information to back up, is a joke or move to end RVS. Thats about all he concentrates on though, what really bugs me about him though is his ignorance of the whole TAOS meltdown. Heck as TOWN im a little uneasy poking at him so if he is town... I dont think scum would ever want to mess with that because TAOS is basically a talking RNG as far as I can tell that just counterattacks anything.

I dont get how you just completely ignore something like this, but he does sorta mention it by calling TAOS scummy in passing, but avoids all types of confrontation. Scum is always far more uneasy getting into confrontation, especially in nightless games where if they screw that up bad, they are in hot water. Mix that with harping on a null tell that is pretty manufactered, I think he is more likely scum trying to stay out of stuff. If he is scum, Thor is town and TAOS... I dunno... I could see scum but as I keep thinking about it how nervous of him T12 seems makes me think town.

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbow, I'm well aware of Ace's summiness, and am on the verge of voting him. The only thing stopping me is what I see as Thor's scumminess and the fact that hopefully everyone already sees how scummy Ace is, and would lynch him after Thor.

Nice to see TAOS is now scummy regardless of what Thor flips. Anyway, you just sidestepped what I said about you. If you see both of them as scummy, why are you treating them differently? The biggest thing I can come up with is personalities, TAOS is really unpredictable, but Thor is a pretty methodical player who wont do as many unexpected things. The simple fact is that you are avoiding getting into anything with TAOS, the volitile player. This is a defensive behavior of scum that is really common when they stop to think, I do it a whole lot as scum. Picking and choosing battles is important, and at times even if you think you can win, it creates too much uncertainty in the game which is a bad thing for scum. Staying away from TAOS-town would be the safest thing that scum could do, and when you give no distinction between TAOS and Thor (you seem to have them on nearly equal ground) but treat them so differently, it shows there is something more going on. Its probably that you are scum and afraid of TAOS-town, but I could really believe you are scared of TAOS-scumbuddy as well since he could just go for the counterbus. Either way, the unwillingness to take a risk and stick to the safe path when there is no reason to is why you are scum.

Also this

To everyone not named Thor or Rainbow: Is it just me, or does it seem like Rainbow just chainsaw-defensed me??

This again avoid responding to the points I made but instead is an attempt to discredit me by saying im defending Thor. Again scumplay 101, if you can counter an attack without a defense but instead try and make somepony look bad somehow else, do it. Its simpler and just as if not more effective.

Really, T12 wagon would be nice, a summarized response to a push by me is:

"Oh Thor and TAOS are both pretty scummy but Thor is a better player. Also you are scum for attacking me and disagreeing with my read."

Its a complete sidestep of my case while trying to attack anypony who attack him first.

[Rainbowdash]

Nice to see TAOS is now scummy regardless of what Thor flips.

Please clarify what you mean by this. I can see multiple ways to interpret the tone of this sentence.

T12 is basically saying "Im going to vote TAOS no matter what Thor flips".

The simple fact is that you are avoiding getting into anything with TAOS, the volitile player.

Being volatile doesn't mean that he is hard to pressure/argue against. If anything, it should be ridiculously easy to argue against his mostly bs arguments.

Its far more risky since its just that much more difficult to figure out what is going to happen. As scum you have to take calculated risks, and if TAOS is town, going for him is like whacking a hornets nest not knowing if its full or not. This also sorta answers your first question, even if you are not in a great spot tangling with a predictable player is... predictable. Its easier to mitigate damage if you can predict it before it even happens. Thor is by far the better player, but I still would see TAOS as riskier to go after just due to the unpredictability factor. If TAOS is town, it could be one of those "VI is right for wrong reasons but still right" scenarios. There is just far more that could go wrong for a slot that would likely get itself killed. Continuing on that...

I thought that T12 and TAOS could be scum together, but as I keep looking at it I dont think they are all that likely. Sure if endgame was me-Thor-TAOS after a T12-scum flip I would probably be voting TAOS, but I sense more of apprehension that I think comes from scum not knowing what town will do. Pretty sure scum have daytalk in this setup so there should be less to fear there if they were together.

@Thor - I havent played with TAOS that I know of. Ive only played with NU and you but I dont think as me.

[Rainbowdash]

Still not sure why there isnt a T12 wagon. Asking the mod something then im going to try and reevaluate since this is a town vs VI wagon battle im pretty sure which makes for some potential interesting plays.

[Rainbowdash]

So this is going to be a bit unorthodox for me but I think im actually making a genius play that either wins us the game here and now or leaves us in a situation where scum really are not going to be prepared for what happens next but also leaves us with a more maliable game moving forward.

Vote TAOS

Yes I realize this is a page four hammer but I think its a smart hammer. Wagon on Thor is just funny bad, has my top scum pick (T12), a scum-ish read (NU) and the VI who I just got out of the game. Really I think mostly just given the compositon of it, Thor is town by default. Plus he helps level out all the Derpyness in this game and im not feeling like dealing with it by myself if somepony comes in and hammers him. Now

First, if TAOS is scum, im town, Thor is town and thats the game right there. Its over. We just won, last scum can just give up.

If he is town, the game is much easier from here on out, so yeah this is

partially

mostly a policy lynch esq downside if he is town.

Upside either way is what should happen with scum not being ready for a hammer, and not knowing who its on. So scum will not have an updated group for tomorrow, or actually not even HAVE a group where its probably randomized. Essentially me making the move regardless of who is scum leaves them in a position where their biggest advantage is gone. There was no buildup to a lynch so there was no chance to make a list with knowing TAOS got hammered.

So yeah. Hammer. The risk is worth the reward when worst case we lose the VI and scum dont get to use their perk of the setup. Best case its all but over.

[Rainbowdash]

Well that trio cant get much worse. Would lynch two of the three not up without hesitation over Toroid and Thor. Almost just want to vote Toroid because its not me or Thor. Will do some reading though.

[Rainbowdash]

Oh yay. We are all probably town due to those posts from Toroid

Two of Dev/T12/NU

Dev is probably town, so its T12 and NU. Since its REALLY obviously T12-scum though (Thor is right, everypony who thinks he is scum magically is in the lynch pool - along with only ONE who had suspicion on them) I think I know where my vote is going, its just one of those things where I have to self vote, or vote two town reads. T12 scum also means Thor town and probably means Dev town... yeah I really wish we could just lynch T12 here instead.

For the meta question, im not actually sure ive ever quickhammered before. Its rare I get the opportunity to start though as im usually a driving force behind a wagon, not at the tail end of it. If we are going policy, its split. I have persued it as scum and town a few times when I really dislike a player or see the advantage in getting rid of them game enjoyment wise.

Vote Toroid

Really I think he is town, but I know im town, and everything so far just points to Thor being town (and moreso T12 scum) given the way the game has progressed. I KNOW its a bad reason but I have to go with the weaker town read in this situation more than anything else. T12 with (in order) NU, Toroid, [big big gap] Dev, Thor. There is your game.

Really though, I just want everypony to at least acknowledge the point on T12 here. The three of us who are up, the weak attack, the "I agree with Thor but want to lynch him, if he is town Dev"... all of that just is T12 being scum and im almost positive he stuck all town in this group.

[Rainbowdash]

If Dev, myself, and Toroid are all town - you believe nothing but town voted to lynch Aces
Discuss.

Stranger things have happened, and yes my prefered lynches didnt vote TAOS.

@Dev - He is saying that because Thor is town and you are somewhat likely town too. Thor is the intended mislynch, next day he can use his reads to try and get you lynched since he knows im going to be coming for him. With Thor gone it shows town suspected you and one of the ponies who would be attacking him are also gone (which is the case no matter who gets lynched really). I actually would put some bits on him suddenly deciding to lynch me and then go back to Thor tomorrow instead.

Its just almost for sure T12 here, and its just more likely to be with Toroid than Thor.

[Rainbowdash]

What makes you so sure Thor is town? He is full neutral in my book.

Because there is constant support for his lynch when there has yet to be a reason that is not attacking a null tell or fabricating something that actually isnt there. Couple that with the fact that my scum reads tend to be the ones who think he is scum, its more likely than not he is town just for those reasons. Add on that he actually didnt go into a type of self-preservation mode today and was talking about things that really is not going to make him friends when the pool for lynching is already small... he is town here.

Assuming I'm town, voting for me makes me think you are an informed minority. (I'm well aware of my phrasing.)

Its not possible to vote for scum today im pretty sure. Its just a matter of voting a strong town read or a weak town read, when you are the weaker town read and could fit with T12 its the best vote. Im not voting for myself, im not voting for Thor, given game rules you are the only vote left, and to an extent, it also serves a purpose of protecting my town read in Thor.

It's possible your scum desperate to be on a "Well if we are town then they must be scum" bw.

Im not sure what you are trying to say here. VC can be flawed, ive actually made moves in suspicions purely to make some unlikely things in VCs true before (all town, scum first three, etc). My top two suspects were off the TAOS wagon, I probably would have been as scum too, keep the VI who is attacking Thor around, push elsewhere but not enough to make it take off. Almost perfect thing to ask for and if you think you have the ability to predict what they are going to do next, well why kill that off?

[Rainbowdash]

Top12Gun's was about the request for quick lynching specifically

I cant believe I missed this.

Its why T12 is scum, and due to that Thor is town, and why Toroid becomes the default lynch.

Remember why T12 jumped hard on Thor to start? He was suggesting quicklynch stuff (jokingly) which T12 said was scummy. How did the day end? Me essentially quicklynching TAOS. T12 repsonds to this by NOT attacking me but instead continuing a crusade against Thor who has some suspicion against him?

Thor is the easier lynch, im not sure if T12 is nervous about me tearing into him since I already am calling him scum or just thinks that he can get the Thor lynch right here, but I dont for a second buy that as town he pays no attention to something that he views as a scumtell.

T12 is scum, for that reason alone Thor is town. This should be me vs Toroid no questions asked today.

[Rainbowdash]

I'm not getting the logic behind this. If you are town, and you think that I am a town member. It shouldn't be between us. Something is wrong here. You're scum right? Because I can only think that scum would do something like this!

Im going back and forth bewteen too dumb for scum and playing dumb here.

The basic reason for my voting you goes

1) We can only vote for You, Me, Thor. No pony else.
2) I think T12 is scum, I have posted cases on why he is scum.
3) If T12 is scum, Thor is town.
4) You are the only possible scum I could vote, even though I still think you are more likely town than scum.

Im not selfvoting and im not voting the pony who becomes confirmed town with me once we lynch T12. Really this game is simple - Stall with your lynch today, maybe get lucky and im wrong and its T12-You. Lynch T12. Lynch all but me, Thor.

T12 is contradicting his theorys when convienent all over the place, staying away from threats, its really basic newbie scum play.

[Rainbowdash]

Why would he consider you a threat and not me though?

Am I losing my touch?

Im that happy/cute but really deadly type pony when push comes to shove and exceedingly dangerous to your health if I think you are scum or I get challenged, etc. Its part of the reason I like these nightless games, I actually cant get NKed by the third day like normal.

Umm, several fail arguments here. 1, I would have preferred a longer day, but I was less stubborn about it because I, too, thought he was likely maf. Ace was terribad town, and see where that got us, but not gonna blame you for hammering because I would likely have done the same if I didn't 100% believe Thor was mafia. But how the hell would me flipping scum make Thor town?? I mean, it would help his case, but would by no means clear him. And the point is moot anyway.

Im not sure ive seen anypony try and avoid challenging me so much before. I really dont see how you can make the arguement of "quicklynching is anti-town" followed by "well its not on a VI" who really... I didnt HAVE much of a scumread on if you paid attention to my posts. I just figured the chance was enough that it helped either way. Also yeah, I would basically not even bat an eye at Thor being scum untill a F3 with you as scum.

No, I still think quicklynch was counterproductive, but the way Ace behaved, I can't fault you too much. As far as staying away from threats, that must be why I'm accusing Thor, counter to most of the viewpoints I'm seeing.

Given the state of the game, yes he is the easier target. You blowing off the fact that I did something you view as scummy to the point where its not mentioned until I call you out on it and then gets passed off as conditional... yes thats picking a target that currently has backing to lynch him as opposed to me. I bet if it was somepony else you would be calling the quicklynch a scumtell, which is probably why im here in part, but you have residual support from yesterday there.

Its not Thor because you are scum. Its really annoying having to defend him the way I am but hey, you make due with the cards you are delt, and if I have to defend him getting somepony who might be scum but probably isnt lynched first, then its what I have to do. Lynching Toroid basically gives us the win since if your partner is under my radar they wont be able to get away with Thor being alive. I just have to play today with hypotheicals. I have a townish read on Thor and other reads back it up. You are going to need to go through me to get to him... that BASICALLY means you need everypony else in the game... good luck.

Above post is what im talking about, you seem to be trying to turning quicklynching into a tell only where it fits your plan for it to be a tell. If you have to apply it to both of us, you have two on top of you who are more than adept players, so you are trying to keep me happy by calling me town and keep the pressure on Thor.

Can we also cut the horseapples here and just go to the 3v3 (me-thor-dev vs t12-NU-toroid) already? Its coming, its been coming, lets just do it already. I would be happy if Thor voted soon so tie gets Toroid lynched at deadline.

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbowdash: Since you knew about the mechanics of the game, why did you choose to policy lynch on an odd day, when ample time remained for you to convince people of the T12 case? Furthermore, does the T12 scum/Thor town work the other way around if T12 flips town?

I explained that one already. TAOS was a VI and not reading town, so I was happy with the policy lynch when I was very uneasy over how there was a wagon on Thor with zero backing pushed by scum reads and a VI. The hammer was as much a passive defense as it was an offense. Also as I stated, and it actually may have happened, if scum dont know who is going to be lynched, they cant prepare a list of who to put up. I would almost be willing to bet that scum just had a T-T-T list as a backup when I hammered which was the stronger players and thats why we are where we are.

Also no. The town read on Thor is COMPOUNDED by the scum read on T12, not due to.

Explain to me how T12’s play is passive (per 47) seeing as he’s been going after someone who is, in your eyes, a confirmed townie? Also explain how sure you are of this.

Again. There is a difference between strong and volitile and thats where the difference is. As scum, the game is about predictability and figuring out what probably will happen when events occur and from there its a puzzle. The more things you can figure out, the better your plans are. Its why volitile players are dangerous to scum, they cant predict what will happen well with them so they tend to be a little more wary about directly engaging them.

We see TAOS doing an immediate fight back at pressure from Thor, and when T12 comes in, he

ignored

TAOS entirely. Thats the key here, he doesnt put more pressure on Thor or anything like that, he avoids TAOS. He avoids me when I start attacking him.

Thor isnt "confirmed town" but the only way he ISNT town is if just about all of my other reads are wrong as well. When independant reads and interaction reads and gamestate all says one thing, its probably true. If it gets to the point where everypony says they will without a shadow of a doubt vote T12 tomorrow, I would take the lynch for Thor today if thats the way it swings because you still will have confirmed town in him in lylo that way once T12 goes.

[Rainbowdash]

I really dont see how you can make the arguement of "quicklynching is anti-town" followed by "well its not on a VI" who really

He's saying that quicklynching without evidence and hammering a potential scum are different. He never stated that he suspected Ace as a VI before the lynch, so why are you stating it like he did.

This. My point was that while I would have played things out longer, I get why you hammered. Less scummy because of his scummy act which you yourself call a "meltdown" in #47. However, orcinus' case for you is growing on me like E.coli on Canadian beef....

You cant claim this at all from a logical standpoint. Buck town or scum, you cant claim this and expect to ever be taken half seriously. I hammered ONLY because of policy and what it ment if he was scum case wise. You are fishing for reasons not to vote me. Bring. It. On. Its me and Toroid. Bring it on. If I get lynched today its better than Thor getting lynched because Thor is town, then you get lynched, and then he gets to mop up NU replacement and if its still going has a coinflip.

Bite the bit and just go for the vote instead of dancing around and waiting to see what Toroid does to pick your poision. You are avoiding conflict again because you arent sure the safer route.

We see TAOS doing an immediate fight back at pressure from Thor, and when T12 comes in, he

ignored

TAOS entirely. Thats the key here, he doesnt put more pressure on Thor or anything like that, he avoids TAOS. He avoids me when I start attacking him.

Thor isnt "confirmed town" but the only way he ISNT town is if just about all of my other reads are wrong as well. When independant reads and interaction reads and gamestate all says one thing, its probably true. If it gets to the point where everypony says they will without a shadow of a doubt vote T12 tomorrow, I would take the lynch for Thor today if thats the way it swings because you still will have confirmed town in him in lylo that way once T12 goes.

I didn't ignore him, I was waiting to see him either justify his behavior, or do what he did. I did, however, note him as scummy in #41 & #50. You yourself admit this in #54. So stop self-contradicting.

You seemed pretty dang sure he was in #'s 88 & 107. And yeah, either your reads are godawful or you're scum.

Oooh.... so you put "but I think TAOS is also scummy" in the tail end of a quote wall. Thats NOT challenging somepony or anything like that. If anything it can be aruged to be WORSE than what you did because you open the doors for hammering town if things go fast. Bet if I got the Thor wagon to start moving your direction pretty quickly you would have found TAOS as scummier.

Also really? Did you call me scum for saying "Thor is town" instead of "I think Thor is town but am not a cop so while I see him as almost for sure town he is not confirmed town". Grasp at straws more.

And vote me. Lets go. Really you are getting lynched tomorrow because me getting lynched should be the nail in your coffin, Thor flipping town lets me drive it in myself tomorrow, and Toroid flipping anything and you are dead in the water. Question is who are you going to try and bring down? I mean, obviously not Toroid because if he dies you HAVE to get me or Thor mislynched tomorrow even if Toroid is town... so lets do it.

[Rainbowdash]

I had partners? Yes I sheeped Thor on page... three? but since then I've been distancing myself. I'm not just sure about him being town.

... that doesnt sound like anything town would ever say.

"Im distancing myself from Thor".... I just... what? I really dont get how you distance as town, or why you do that, or how... again.

RainbowDash, How does me flipping anything change your opinion on Top12Gun? I don't understand this either? Did you make a mistake and put my name in when you intended to use someone elses?

I really dont think there is a situation where T12 doesnt die tomorrow actually. I die and he is slated for death, you die and he his, Thor dies and he is. The only way I can possibly see T12 NOT being lynched is if Thor not only somehow gets lynched but also is actually scum. Neither of those are happening though so hey, T12 is in all likelyhood tomorrows lynch. If you are scum it just makes it all that much easier to get him lynch.

The very fact that Thor isn't being voted for... kinda makes me suspicious.
Well then, let us see where this goes!

Vote: RainbowDash

Wow... you are able to waffle with only two possible votes you CAN make. Really you actually MIGHT be T12s partner with this post of yours. Thor is suspicious... but guess where you end up for ????? reasons.

Anypony else realize that T12 just voted me essentially for "called me stupid"? Also yes, im actually KNOWN for hardcore defending a player on a gut feeling or single tell day one, ive stopped town lynches quite a few times. Its what I do because my track record of reading town as town is rediculously good, in most games thats how I find scum, working backwards and then going through and putting a case together once I get about half the game who I refuse to lynch.

[Rainbowdash]

Posts like that from Toroid are what makes me all the more confident we are all town here.

I do disagree that T12 scum would be trying to get you lynched. If he is scum and dies with both me and Thor alive, scum probably lose. He literally cant afford to lynch you as scum no matter what you are.

[Rainbowdash]

T12 continues to miss that I never really had a scum read on TAOS and it was policy. Will try to explain this one more time

Just because I quickhammer a VI, it doesnt mean that its not scummy if it would be to quickhammer somepony like Thor at that stage if you think quickhammering is scummy. The only reason YOU are not calling it scummy is because YOU saw TAOS as scum. If you thought he was town, you probably would have cared a whole lot. Why I called you scum for it is that it just seems really convienent that you dont care about it and fall back on YOUR viewpoint of TAOS instead of what MY viewpoint on TAOS was because that allowed you to attack Thor while not attacking me. I just saw him as a VI. At that point there were multiple ponies I would have gone for before TAOS if I was going for who I thought had the highest chance of flipping scum. I just wanted the VI who if was scum would probably mean we won gone.

Usually I can figure out why somepony thinks something when they are town, I usually can even follow trains of thought when they are scum but its harder at times. Here I have no real idea why you are applying your viewpoints to my actions while ignoring my viewpoints.

Also because im town, you basically are dead no matter what tomorrow or at least up for lynch. Literally the only way you might not get lynched is if Thor is scum and he gets lynched, neither of which is going to happen.

[Rainbowdash]

Well SOME of us live in timezones where we just now get home from work on a good day.

Anyways. We are still all probably town here. Toroid is just the lynch because he actually works fairly well as scum with everypony who is NOT lynchable today so if scum actually did stick themselves in here or my hammer screwed them up or something. Thor got a little bit twitchy with his whole "everypony is scum" implications, but when that move probably gets me lynched, im just going to continue to make the bet I think is logical here even if its in part some ultra-complex self-preservation.

[Rainbowdash]

I would appreciate an unvote given that I still think Thor is town, no way Thor-scum doesnt capitalize on getting me out of the way yesterday when im more of a "suddenly it clicks" threat. Plus it looks like chk is waiting for somepony to come on which if he is still makes me think T12 scum.

[Rainbowdash]

I would appreciate an unvote given that I still think Thor is town, no way Thor-scum doesnt capitalize on getting me out of the way yesterday when im more of a "suddenly it clicks" threat. Plus it looks like chk is waiting for somepony to come on which if he is still makes me think T12 scum.

Ive actually been thinking on this some more, and I think it confirms that one of T12 and Thor are scum (outside of a chk-OT pairing). Thor as scum would have done better to lynch me if he was scum UNLESS T12 is town. If T12 is town it was better for him to lynch Toroid.

That leaves me with what happens falls into one of

T12 is town, Thor is scum
Thor is town, T12 is ????

We can replace the mystery with scum though I think because if he was town it means its chk-OT and why wouldnt OT attack me when it just makes me go for T12, and if its that pair they auto-win.

Given that, it MUST be one of, and exactly one of T12 and Thor. Even though I dislike the attack on Thor from OT, it actally cleared away the pairing that allows us to without a doubt show that its one of two.

So its T12 + OT/chck... so I need to do some convincing magic here. Give me some time and I should get it up this weekend. Tomorrow maybe since it should be an easy day at work that I dont have to work any overtime.

[Rainbowdash]

Your OT opinion conflicts with itself.

So does your Thor opinion, go figure.

Really?

Ive already proven its not Thor and T12, and it has to be one of them. I still think Thor is more likely town than T12 by quite a bit, so its T12 + chk/OT which is why I REALLY would like it if you wouldnt vote because if its T12/OT you are essenitally throwing the game without even saying why.

Im probably going to vote T12 soon here, but want to make sure nothing that disproves any theories of mine happens first.

[Rainbowdash]

I must've misread the OT bit because it's not clicking like it was before, but you're clearly tossing Thor665 aside... because OT attacked Thor? Otherwise, you didn't explain why his name disappeared.

Because I dont have much of a reason to think he is scum without trying to forceably apply PoE to yesterdays group and I still have a scumread on T12.

OT-scum opening in lylo when his team would clearly know it's lylo because they didn't have to put people up for nomination (if I read those rules proper) would be retarded at best. OT isn't scum. I'm not scum. I'm not ruling out T12 as a possibility, but I feel much stronger with Thor/Rainbowdash than I do T12/Rainbowdash. The latter doesn't make sense, the former does.

I actually do agree with OT being least likely scum out of the three that have scum in it, only way is if you are scum and even then it would have been a reckless opening vote as Thor haddent declared which way he wanted to go first.

You are voting wrong though if thats your two pairs. You say im scum either way, but you vote Thor because... he is an easier lynch? Kinda odd to be saying this here but, you should absolutely be voting me here if thats what you think.

[Rainbowdash]

I'm saying I'm not ruling out the possibility of T12/Rainbowdash. That doesn't mean I have a stronger scum-read on you than I have on Thor665. Thanks though.

Thats where im a little concerned though. If the solution to you is A+B or B+C... the right solution always start with B. You however are going for Thor, who unlike me is more apt to be lynched. When we get TWO lynches if we hit scum today to win this... why even take the risk of it being B+C and losing? I think its that Thor is town and you figure that you can catch scum screwing up by continuing to push the fact that I have a town read on him as us being scum.

As town you wouldnt be voting him when voting me (to you as town) wins. Instead you are going for the popular solution, that doesnt make sense.

Vote chk

Lets dance.

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbow: bit of a hypocrisy in voting chk over top when you're saying it's top+chk/me, and you're jumping on chk for voting the exact same way?

Actually it was implied that I think given the way chk is pandering to popular opinion and trying to get votes on Thor when he logically shoulnt be voting Thor, he is more likely scum. Now granted this is almost for sure WITH T12, but given the way that I have defended Thor this entire game, he is exceedingly blatantly trying to use that as scare tactics for why we are scum. So by that merit, you are probably town and the swing vote here.

He actually hasnt done anything in the form of a case, but is piggybacking what has pushed (which I still dont get really) and trying to use the fact that I have, im pretty sure correctly at this point, read Thor as town the entire game against me.

[Rainbowdash]

Ugh wait no.

Rainbow, is thor still town? And why do you think so?

Yes. Its two part.

First is that nopony has really made a case, yet he is getting a ton of flack. Basically I see one post that really bugs me from Thor, while the rest really arent giving me any sort of a scum read. The fact that everypony is just sorta plodding along calling him scum just makes me uncomfortable, and when I cant follow a case yet its popular, major red flag about it being on scum actually.

Second is more of just me because chk is just going to ignore it and say its a scumtell or something, but I dont think scum has been playing a long bus which if it was Thor + anypony they would have needed to be doing.

Just the way the game was instantly approached by chk going "oh hey we need to lynch Thor" and then having most of his reasoning be that we are scum together when all the momentum has been behind Thor is chk geting overaggressive as scum.

It makes sense the whole way through for it to be something like T12+chk. All the players who thought T12 was scum show up in the lynch pool yesterday, newbie players see D2 as a way to not get lynched at all so are afraid to go into the pool, strong players are the ones they target.

It all points to those two. T12 was amazingly scummy early and chk comes in today and just locks down the perfect stance to take.

[Rainbowdash]

I am convinced that scum would not leave both of their own off the block.

This is 100% what I would have wanted if I was scum. Its a bad move to pass this up in almost all scenarios because all attention is going to be centered in the group going up and residual attention would spill over to the next day, like is what actually happened here. Scum played it right and given that T12 is MIA is probably the only reason that the game isnt over already.

Rainbow's mindless defense of Thor is also bad.

Bull. The case on him is baseless and if he is scum we got lucky. I will always defend when the case is bad or I have a scumread. I follow hardcore on the whole loyalty thing, and staying loyal to your town reads is one of the biggest obsticals you can throw at scum.

Look. Unvote for a little. If you really think im scum its not like you are jeopardizing things and given that T12 is simply gone for now at chk was obviously fishing for something with that post at the start of the day the chance of it being T12 and chk is off the charts. If it really shakes down to Thor/Me vs chk/T12 like its looking like it will if you are town, you can make a more informed decision since it MUST be one of the other at that point and your pairings are streamlined, plus we can make better looking cases.

Basically your vote is saying that it more or less HAS to be me and Thor, I wouldnt have tried to get you off Thor if I was scum with chk. I just dont post for a bit, or have chk actually throw out his vote and hammer. I NEVER would go for chk when T12 would have given us the game if we couldnt hammer coordinate.

If you are town, it 100% has to be me and Thor or chk and T12. Its been a stupid week at work with overtime and then having to go over SBFCA specifications for the stupid $120M project today which was eight hours of dry text reading. I can get to it this weekend if you actually leave it as apossibility, but if you are town and voting me to try and lock things down or something, you at least need to realize the possibilites that you actually ahering to. Its not four different pairings, its two with no duplicates. If you are scum cool keep it up, but really I think that would mean something derpy like T12 is town or something in which case we are basically screwed either way.

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbow: Thing about your interaction with thor is that you weren't just negating the case on Thor, you were pushing Thor as a town-read. You're basically saying that Thor is town because there are stupid people in the village trying to scumhunt. That doesn't follow. Who is your strongest town read right now: Me or Thor?

Bad case tends to equate the recipiant of it being town, when there has been constant pressure on Thor from scumreads and I have to FORCE myself to take some leaps of faith to put together a case on him... yes I think he is town. Because I am town the only way I can see the game not having ended is him being town, maybe scum with T12 as an option since thats not technically ruled out, but even though its probably not what you want to hear, he is my strongest town read simply because it isnt over.

[Rainbowdash]

I need my Role PM first.

Well you are either scum with chk and have the easiest win ever or are town and get to be tiebreaker.

[Rainbowdash]

@Both Thor and Rainbowdash:

If I'm town, and you're town, chk has to be scum. Who out of orc, each other, and myself is his most likely partner?

Given that the game isnt ending, its probably OT which goes against my other reads but its the only think that actually makes sense here. It where it gets to the point that nothing makes sense, but Thor is essentially forced to be town which means that if this game doesnt end really soon T12 was town and OT was scum and that means that chk really screwed this up, so im not really sure what is happening. I feel like we are going to lose because scum did something so stupid they couldnt possibly be scum or something like that.

All I know is that today is essentially the last day of the game since who scum with OT will reveal itself if the game is still going and a scum lynch forces a win in that case.

[Rainbowdash]

I've never been good with this pairing business.

Thor665/Rainbowdash dat scum.

@Klick - This is why chk is scum.

Look at him, he is "fully convinced" or whatever that I am scum with Thor... yet he refuses to vote me? Why as town does he not vote me? Is he paranoid that its OT+you/Thor or something? No? Its more along the lines that he doesnt want the OPTION of me being able to convince you of anything, which is why I think its most likely him and OT at this point instead of you. If he votes me, you get cleared if you are town and then Thor votes chk and you have two strong players in me and Thor with the puzzle solved and arguing from an optimal standpoint.

Since that means T12 was town, it also solves the "why didnt I get attacked much" thing from yesterday untill after I made it clear that T12 was dying either way once I got lynched. I was the one who was going to vote wrong tomorrow if one of them came under pressure since there was no real way I was not lynching T12. It was benificial for scum to leave me around because I would lose the game for us.

But really, chk as town who has the game all figured out to the extent he claims... waits for you to vote first or something? Thats not town. Thats scum who doesnt want to complicate a win.

[Rainbowdash]

@Rainbow:

Convince me Orc is scum. That's a main reason that I'd consider lynching you; The only team left that doesn't involve you is chk/Orc, and I have a hard time believing Orc is scum. I have no problem understanding chk-scum, but that would be with you.

Well first... it menas chk would be your vote. We lynch scum today and we have to chances to hit their partner because of mechanics.

But really I dont HAVE a great case as to why OT is scum, it just has to be if you are town because all other options are proven wrong already. I already have given you a chk case which I can continue to expand on, but really, all I need to do is convince you its chk.

Him not voting me is a MASSIVE scumtell because of what a non-game ending 2v2 means if scum gets lynched. If its turns into OT-chk vs Me-Thor and we lynch chk, we just opened a forced win. You lynch one of me/OT the next day and then if its still going follow with the other as you and Thor become confirmed town in that situation as a votecount with 5 alive and 2 scum that stalls means either both with votes are scum or both on town are scum. In this setup we actually can take care of both of them.

Chk isnt even making a case, he is just trying to work the paranoia angle on this, he should be voting as town and not saying "oh I would vote either". If he is confiedent as I have said HE SHOULD BE VOTING, because I AM one if the "either".

I can pick through other days later but just his play here I think is already a solid case.

[Rainbowdash]

I realize that lynching correctly today is an autowin (which means if it's you/chk, it's autowin already). That basically means I'm making a choice between Orc and Thor, but lynching between you and chk. Therefore, if you're town, I need a good reason to suspect Orc, because using my own scumhunting, I currently suspect a you/Thor scumteam.

But thats my issue, anything I make is going to probably give an appearance of being fabricated because even though I know that OT is scum if you are town, the only REAL reason I know it is I know im town. I would have voted him last out of the three of you independently.

[Rainbowdash]

Not hammering.

Awesome. So its chk+OT

Look, I cant make a good case on OT. I wouldnt think he is that likely to be scum outside of the ugly vote from NU.

All of these last few pages though just point 100% to them because just look at chk. Comes in and says Thor is pretty scummy, then chains me to him, then when I make noise he stalls but shifts attention to me in response. Finally he continues to try and more goad you into voting me first untill I call him out on it while OT calls chk scummy, but I end up being the obvious vote.

The case on OT is more from the fact that he is scum WITH chk who is actively scummy. I would have voted for YOU over OT today, but given the way things are breaking down it has to be chk, and unless its somehow chk-Thor that means it HAS to also be OT. I can get you a good case on chk, I know im not in a good spot or can ever argue this well since what is forced to be true conflicts with my reads a bit, but it HAS to be true so thats where we are and I realize that showing you why chk is obviously scum will be better than trying to show why OT is scum when my case is PoE more or less.

[Rainbowdash]

I was much more convinced with Thor-scum than Rainbow-scum, but now Rainbow-scum works with more avenues/connections and you IMO only fit the one.

This is just perfect as to why chk is scum. He CANT BE THIS STUPID.

If im scum and get lynched that would be GAME OVER for me. Literally - game would be over unless you are about to argue that OT is scum or something just beyond derpy like that. Chk is trying to figure out the reasons as to why he is voting me and is missing things that he would realize as town. That even goes beyond the rediculousness that as scum (with apparently NOT Thor?) I pull him off of Thor and try and make it a 1v1 or something. I mean... REALLY!?

Chk is trying to just make me an appealing lynch by apparently now trying to argue it could POSSIBLY me Me+anypony or something like that. This is not the way town thinks, but the way scum trys to overly justify a vote.

[Rainbowdash]

So what does "more avenues/connections" mean then? All I can tell is "works with more" or "is now easy vote"... please let me know which one I should be calling you scum for.

[Rainbowdash]

The only thing that has changed is the fact that it isn't as viable to place all my eggs on Thor-scum when there are more pairings with RD-scum.

Which is what I already called you on for being BS.

Because it would mean, to you as town, that I made you stop voting Thor town instead of trying to turn it into you vs Thor. Or that ive been running a long bus with T12, or that OT is scum (which you seem pretty against).

So yeah, you are trying to fluff up a case. With... what one are you going for? I stop an easy win or Klick is scum?

Please. Its obviously you and OT trying to go against me and Thor. You just want to make it look like more options because lack of a case constitutes having to grab at random things because you are hoping OTs standing gives you the win if you just dont mess it up. Really though... since you are trying to convince Klick, I guess this means you are pushing a pairing of Me and OT or something? Or is this the point where you say "It could be that but its probably Thor-RD"?

[Rainbowdash]

Ugh, that became a miserable slog after Orc's replace in.
I think town owes him a lot of thanks for the win.

Voting me was still a force loss so im not sure what the plan there was. Also I still say putting both of us up was about the worst possible play there.