Mini 1400(!): Bubble Tape Mafia - It's Over!


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Post Post #750 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:49 am

Post by mastin2 »

By the way,
In post 733, kushm4sta wrote:sorry Jake I don't mean to ride your jock or whatever,
but I can understand why someone would think AP was sk instead of scum.
It just doesn't seem like scum could force themselves to be that enthused about scumhunting.
Although I do not know APs scum meta and if he is capable of this enthusiasm as scum, it just seems unlikely.
Posts like this have pretty much bumped kush up to townread #2.

But AP's still town, and will continue to be town, and I'd rather lynch myself than lynch AP 'cause he's just. that. damn. town.

Pushing me as scum meaning he's derping?
Heck yes.

But still town.

Again, the drive for his lynch is retarded from the town members on it. AP's the most town player in the game right now. When he settles down, thinks things through, and realizes that I'm not scum (seriously, AP, we might as well be masons if you stop yer dang attacks on me), he'll become one of the most dangerous scumhunters in the game.
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Post Post #751 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:54 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 745, mastin2 wrote:You're town, bro. Seriously, I get it, you are. I
know
you are.

Are you being cheeky scum here?
This feels like cheeky scum.

In post 749, Jake from State Farm wrote:mastin, you realize I won't be alive come day 3 right?

So?
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Post Post #752 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:55 am

Post by mastin2 »

In post 749, Jake from State Farm wrote:mastin, you realize I won't be alive come day 3 right?
...


Must. show. restraint.

Jake. You claimed x-shot commuter. Unless x = 1, you have another shot.

You not being alive on day three is about as close to a scumclaim as you can get.



But seriously. For a single game phase, I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt.
AP is not scum, and for today at least, I want to trust you not to be.

You're barking up the wrong tree with AP. If ever there was a game to show AP as town, this would be it; this is him in his purest form.
And if you want something without meta, you can look at how his reads have evolved. His mindset during the game. He's been pushing things logically, he's been changing his reads dynamically, he's been making the reads fit the evidence and not the other way around (as you are), he's been consistently calling out good reads, he's been consistently posting solid reasoning with an easily-followed train of thought...all-in-all, his posts are just about the towniest they could possibly be.

He is not scum.

So gods help me, if you're town, STOP. CONFIRMATION. BIASING. HIM. Step away. Breathe. Come back, clean slate, blank mind. Look again.

He. is. town.
Now help me lynch scum.

Hint: it's not me.
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Post Post #753 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:57 am

Post by Jake from State Farm »

Fine, if you think I've scum claimed lynch me. That's more respectable than what I was going to do
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2. Don't waste time on people who think you are scum. Ignore them and keep scum hunting.
3. Don't take everything so personal.
4. Tunneling sucks (unfortunately I can't seem to stop)
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Post Post #754 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:03 am

Post by Thor665 »

I'm already sick of hearing that insinuation - even if you are what you claim you are it doesn't prove AP is scum.
Get over your bad plan.
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Post Post #755 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:05 am

Post by Jake from State Farm »

No his play confirms he's scum
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Post Post #756 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:06 am

Post by zipperflesh »

ap is the correct lynch today.... if he flips sk, jakes role is confirmed.. if he flips mafia., mastin. is con-scum... if he flips town, then. jake is probably scum
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Post Post #757 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:09 am

Post by zipperflesh »

the likely hood that. ap is the sk is high considering he changes his reads about. as much as as a Victoria. secret. model. changes her underwear
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Post Post #758 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:18 am

Post by mastin2 »

SO LET'S RUN THROUGH THINGS AGAIN.

1. zipperflesh
^In the suspect pool for the AP push alone, but probably not a good lynch today. We can come back to him another time.

2. Cybertronix
^Cyber's posting started out weak, but it's gotten stronger and stronger as the game has progressed. He's been raising good points and has shown a clear town train of thought. His stances have been strong, and his posts have been transparent. Add to that, he has a town tone to his posts; his way of negotiating with others feels incredibly natural.

3. mastin2 (replacing Leonshade)
^One of few voices of reason at the moment. Seriously, if ever there was a time to listen to me, now would be it.

4. Thor665
^Ambivalent. Not a day two lynch for that alone.

5. kushm4sta
^Townread #2. His posts are confident, but not arrogant. He shows a level of comfort in this game. This is a strong towntell for someone claiming to strongly prefer to be town (especially a newb), since it shows that he's in his element. He's been open and transparent, very willing to explain himself, and even offering up a broadcast of his strategy as scum--a bold move for anyone actually scum, but quite natural as town. In general, I find it easy to sync with his thoughts and I can see where he's coming from more often than not.

6. MaverickMaestro
^You mighta noticed I kinda stopped mentioning him in public. In my QT*, though, it's a different story. Quite frankly, I was hoping to apply pressure to him by day three, but I didn't want to do so while I still had strong leads in kthnx/d3x/Thor. Now that my d3x and Thor reads have weakened, he's definitely worth looking in to.

7. qwints (replacing Devourer359)
^Qwints's posts might not be the strongest in the game, but I still feel as if he's town. AP's town #1, kush is town #2, and qwints is definitely in the running for town spot #3. His hammering on Dave, contrary to what anyone else may have claimed, was town in nature and far,
far
too bold for scum, as getting rid of the cop via hammering them and drawing attention to yourself is not worth it; it'd be pretty suicidal, in fact, and ultimately backfire on them. (Yeah, yeah, *insert "WIFOM!" cries here*, which I DGAF about; that term's way too overused.)

8. Jake from State Farm
^While a solid candidate for scum, he's a claimed PR. Give him one damn day, okay?

9. Kthxbye (replacing SafetyDance)
^This should be our lynch today. Safety Dance's posts are some of the worst I've ever seen in my 100-game career, and are about as blatantly obvious newb-scum as you can get. He was showing all the classic signs of scum not knowing what the heck they were doing; he was on the defensive and was trying to scrape by on a mislynch rather than be lynched himself. He showed no initiative, he showed no original thoughts (his posts were largely fluff), and if that wasn't enough, kthnxbye--his replacement--did much the same.

10. d3x
^Like Thor, ambivalent. Unlike Thor, I actually have a lean on him:
Town.

Just gut, mainly, at the moment, and I'll eventually need to get a stronger read on him, but he's not a lynch for today.

11. AngryPidgeon
^Towniest town player of all towns. Seriously, read his posts at any stage in the game. Early, mid (end of day one), late (current). They show the exact same picture, someone who is scumhunting and doesn't give a damn that people find him suspicious. He's not backing down from the things he believes in, nor is he concerned about how people view him when he sees a new piece of evidence which changes his read.

* *insert "Wait, what?!? YOU HAVE A QT?!?" here* :P



So there. The clear lynch candidate for today is kthnx.
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Post Post #759 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:21 am

Post by mastin2 »

In post 756, zipperflesh wrote:ap is the correct lynch today.... if he flips sk, jakes role is confirmed.. if he flips mafia., mastin. is con-scum... if he flips town, then. jake is probably scum
Hey, remember my post I just spent something like ten minutes writing, which said that this guy was in the suspect pool?

Yeah, well, triple that right now for this post. Setting up mislynches at its absolute best.



And you know what? Screw being conservative.


Calling it: the scumteam is kthnxbye, zipperflesh, and Maverick.


So let's lynch these bastards now.
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Post Post #760 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:24 am

Post by Jake from State Farm »

hey Thor, while I have some free time, care to explain how Zipper can be scum because of his wagon position yet you criticize Mastin for also using wagon analysis.

Also you said the most obvious NK target for you was zipper, which mean you thought he was town but the day starts and you do a 180 and say zipper is scum. (essentially what AP did)

how is that possible? The same wagon analysis was available to you after the Dave flip.

p.edit - no mastin, you aren't leading so shut the fuck up.
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1. It's just a game, have fun.
2. Don't waste time on people who think you are scum. Ignore them and keep scum hunting.
3. Don't take everything so personal.
4. Tunneling sucks (unfortunately I can't seem to stop)
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Post Post #761 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:36 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 760, Jake from State Farm wrote:hey Thor, while I have some free time, care to explain how Zipper can be scum because of his wagon position yet you criticize Mastin for also using wagon analysis.

Did I criticize him, or did I ask him a question he dodged?

In post 760, Jake from State Farm wrote:Also you said the most obvious NK target for you was zipper, which mean you thought he was town but the day starts and you do a 180 and say zipper is scum. (essentially what AP did)

That is correct.

In post 760, Jake from State Farm wrote:how is that possible? The same wagon analysis was available to you after the Dave flip.

You mean at the start of Day 2 when I went 180 on him?
That seems...normal...?
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Post Post #762 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:44 am

Post by AngryPidgeon »

Short General Replies:

Why shouldn't we lynch Jake today

Jake's reaction to my posts is from an SK vantage point. PLUS, he HAS to play the game nightless. If it becomes obvious that there is a 3rd party killer and I flip non-SK (I will) then Jake is the obv-SK and dies immediately. Jake HAS to play the game w/o killing anyone for the time being because of that. That is why I don't care about lynching him too much ATM. He is scum and that will super obvious later AND he is not a threat due to gimping himself. He should not be lynched until we see 2 mafia flips. Then Jake should go.

@Zipper: I'm town and Im telling you right fucking now what my flip confirms. Kthx is scum. Jake is an SK. Mastin/qwints probscum. Thats. it.

@Jake: So why did I claim VT over Vig then ESPECIALLY since you had just claimed a role that could confirm me as a being a vig that shot you? Your logic is flailing. And no, I NEVER claimed to have shot you. Your overreaction to my silly speculation was an SK claim and its obvious as shit that you think I am mafia and that you are in fact an SK.

Why Kthxbye is scum

Posturing. He replaces in and says he is totally expecting Thor and I to be voting the same person because we are obvtown? He has no reason to think that we are both obvtown at that point (esp Thor :P). And he has NO reason to think that two townied with hugely different personalities would vote the same person anyways. His qwints stance is also posturing. "Qwints made an anti-town hammer and therefore is scum" combined with him saying that a scum-flip from Dave would have made qwints probtown. Does not add up. Its anti-town or its not. AND kthx is a hyporcite for not wanting the hammer but keeping Dave at L - 1 anyways.

Avoiding Me/Jake walls. He refuses to take an active stance on Me/Jake at the time we are having a firefight in real time. Why? Because he is afraid of letting on that he knows Jake is an SK. Notice that he later accused me of being scum for 'knowing more than I should'. This is because he is carefully avoiding letting on that he knows more than he should about Jake. Which is why he thought to accuse me of that in the first place. Plus it can but him town cookies when I flip town and he can be all like "Woah, I had no idea. See
I
am the one that is lacking of inside information because I was wrong about AP! Clearly Im town!" Not.

Zipper, Kthx changed his opinion on me, you should vote him. Since that is a scumtell and all.

About Mastin

My gut tells me Mastin is scum. His playstyle is indistinguishable as town/scum and I've read his games / played with him before. I know he is capable of this hyper-buddying as either alignment. Still, Id rather lynch Kthx today and tell everyone to bear in mind that Mastin could still be scum.

You could maybe be right about Zipper? I need to reread that. Zipper could just be one of those players that is so bad it makes me think they are scum. And I find it a little unlikely that he/Kthx team would lead the charge on me together.

My best Town reads: Kush, Cyber, Maverick
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Post Post #763 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:53 am

Post by Jake from State Farm »

Thor - why ask the question though? you should question suspicious behavior and wagon analysis isn't suspicious

and yes I mean at the start of the day, if you thought he was most likely to be killed at night why would you use wagon analysis to accuse he is scum. doesn't make sense
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1. It's just a game, have fun.
2. Don't waste time on people who think you are scum. Ignore them and keep scum hunting.
3. Don't take everything so personal.
4. Tunneling sucks (unfortunately I can't seem to stop)
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Post Post #764 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:56 am

Post by Cybertronix »

Wow this shit really blew up. Will read and catch up once it dies down at work.
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Post Post #765 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:58 am

Post by Jake from State Farm »

no need to read, vote AP. that's all you need to know
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1. It's just a game, have fun.
2. Don't waste time on people who think you are scum. Ignore them and keep scum hunting.
3. Don't take everything so personal.
4. Tunneling sucks (unfortunately I can't seem to stop)
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Post Post #766 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:05 am

Post by AngryPidgeon »

Mastin, what happened to your d3x scumread? Why is MM scum?

Jake, why would I claim VT if I you think I was setting up to crumb vig and you gave me an out to do so? Why would I shoot someone I had a townread on if I were planning on claiming vig?

Officially, what do you think I will flip? And tell me again why there is any reason to think I was SK over mafia?
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Post Post #767 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:06 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 763, Jake from State Farm wrote:Thor - why ask the question though? you should question suspicious behavior and wagon analysis isn't suspicious

The thinking behind behavior is what I'm interested in.

In post 763, Jake from State Farm wrote:and yes I mean at the start of the day, if you thought he was most likely to be killed at night why would you use wagon analysis to accuse he is scum. doesn't make sense

I thought he was the most town looking going into night.
The lack of his death paired with death of a non-slot, paired with his wagon location made him suspect.
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Post Post #768 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:07 am

Post by zipperflesh »

@mastin

1: im suspicious because i want to lynch someone you claim to know is town, but offer. us no solid. proof?

11: if you consider not backing down means doing 180s every chance you get... also. every post of aps shows. a completely. different picture from the last one.... how do you, i don't even ...
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Post Post #769 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:08 am

Post by zipperflesh »

oh god. thor... now you are starting to sound like ap....
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Post Post #770 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:09 am

Post by Jake from State Farm »

In post 766, AngryPidgeon wrote:Mastin, what happened to your d3x scumread? Why is MM scum?

Jake, why would I claim VT if I you think I was setting up to crumb vig and you gave me an out to do so? Why would I shoot someone I had a townread on if I were planning on claiming vig?

Officially, what do you think I will flip? And tell me again why there is any reason to think I was SK over mafia?

I have answered all of these already, so I am not doing it again.


why did you ignore my post 686 and shortly after that, give up on lynching me?
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1. It's just a game, have fun.
2. Don't waste time on people who think you are scum. Ignore them and keep scum hunting.
3. Don't take everything so personal.
4. Tunneling sucks (unfortunately I can't seem to stop)
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Post Post #771 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:11 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 769, zipperflesh wrote:oh god. thor... now you are starting to sound like ap....

When did I start calling you names?
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Post Post #772 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:13 am

Post by qwints »

AP - so you think SK-Jake entered into a 1 v 1 on day 2? That only makes sense if he's confident you're scum. In that world, Jake is BP and saw that only his kill went through, then read your attack on him as scum SK-hunting. Jake thinks he can flip you, "confirming" his claim. That is actually a pretty plausible scenario.

Jake, why are you so confident a kill didn't go through? Is it just because AP said he was "surprised you weren't killed."

In post 728, Jake from State Farm wrote:
A VT would not be surprised a town read was alive and automatically assume they were scum.



This is wrong.
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Post Post #773 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:15 am

Post by Jake from State Farm »

Yes it is and no it's not wrong
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1. It's just a game, have fun.
2. Don't waste time on people who think you are scum. Ignore them and keep scum hunting.
3. Don't take everything so personal.
4. Tunneling sucks (unfortunately I can't seem to stop)
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Post Post #774 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:16 am

Post by mastin2 »

AP wrote:Mastin, what happened to your d3x scumread?
He did a
damn
good job of convincing me I was wrong. Do I have him as a strong townread, no; he's just above null. But his explanation really made me feel as if I might be wrong on him. (Gut, mainly.)

Why is MM scum?
Maverick is basically Cyber's opposite--
As Cyber's play got stronger throughout the game, Maverick's play has been getting weaker. He's by far my weakest scumread, but he's still there. It's primarily gut and POE, since if he's not scum, there aren't really many other options available.

And trust me, AP, I'm town this game.
Spoiler: long ramble on why
Believe it or not, there
is
a difference in my scumplay; it's just not something which will be obvious. It's how prepared I am for the game. As scum, replacing in during the night, I'm caught off-guard. I don't really offer to replace in unless I'm expecting to get a town PM. So in the rare instances where it happens, I have to coordinate with my scumbuddies during the night with how I'm going to act. Scumplay from me is NOT natural, 'specially given that I recently came back from a vacation. (And, again, my scum record is abysmally bad; in 100 or so games, only four scum wins.)

And this shows, since I tend to immediately open the day with reads.

As town replacing in during the night, I try not to get invested in the game, and the nightkill of the other replacement shows exactly why: because there is a SIGNIFICANT chance that I'm going to die, and I don't want to have all my effort go down the drain.

So I go in blind. I wait for day, see it dawn, with me alive, and start posting off of what I see.

Basically, it's the difference between having reads in advance and replacing in with nothing.
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