Mini 1400(!): Bubble Tape Mafia - It's Over!

[qwints]

I want to lynch Jake for his horrific use of probability. Assuming that there is one godfather, and that mastin's one investigation returned innocent on AP - the odds of AP being GF are much lower than 50%

[Jake from State Farm]

^Why?

Cause I want to re-read

[Jake from State Farm]

I want to lynch Jake for his horrific use of probability. Assuming that there is one godfather, and that mastin's one investigation returned innocent on AP - the odds of AP being GF are much lower than 50%

If I think he's scum, yet he's cleared by the cop, from my point of view he is town or GF. I'd actually say its probably 90% chance he's GF given his obviously scummy play but to be nice I lowered it to 50%

You really shouldn't talk cause you should have been auto lynched for that hammer d1

[Dunhamganger]

If zipperflesh hasn't posted by tomorrow morning he will receive a prod.

[AngryPidgeon]

Not Voting: 4 (zipperflesh, qwints, d3x, AngryPidgeon wait what is this)

lol.

Wow, really nothing happened. I was lurking and hoping SOMEONE would say something obvscum.

Lol Jake. Re me being a GF: Just imagine that I am currently everything back to you that you said to me about my reads.

KillerJester, top 3 reads plz.

People I dont want to lynch atm: Thor/d3x/KJ
People I only kind of dont want to lynch: Jake/Cyber
Everyone else: qwints/kthxbye/zipper

Still working on rereads.

@Cyber

: You said yesterday that giving Kthx a Day proves whether or not he is lying. Do you think he is lying? Opinion on qwints?

@Jake:

You mentioned Yesterday about how RB affects your role, right? Read on Zipper?

[AngryPidgeon]

Just imagine that I am currently

saying

everything back to you that you said to me about my reads.

[killerjester]

Huh? Mind showing your work?

100/2=50

>suggesting it's 50% as in an equal choice between two alternatives

If I think he's scum, yet he's cleared by the cop, from my point of view he is town or GF. I'd actually say its probably 90% chance he's GF given his obviously scummy play but to be nice I lowered it to 50%

>suggesting it's 50% because of his 90% certainty being lowered to 50% out of kindness

Needless to say, both are shit reasons. The prior because it assigns a probability to something that isn't a random value. If we lynch AP he'll either flip GF 100% because he received that role PM, or he won't because he didn't. A probability would be something like, "There are likely 3 scum out of 9 alive players, so if we lynch a random player there's a 33% chance he'll flip scum."

The latter because while he clarifies that the percentage is simply a representation of his opinion, there is no town motivation for being lenient on a player who you are 90% certain is scum.

KillerJester, top 3 reads plz.

Working on it, I promise.

[d3x]

Are we seriously debating statistics? Why?

VOTE: killerjester

[killerjester]

Try to pay attention, thanks.

[d3x]

I'm paying attention to the fact that your player slot didn't really add any substance.
I'm paying attention to the fact that early in the day, you were 'adding to the discussion' by pointing out semantics from the wiki on what's allowed in a Normal.
I'm paying attention to the fact that you're debating percentages for something that there's really know way of knowing, continuing the trend of not adding substance.

[Thor665]

@Kthx - I didn't have any idea, because I wasn't around and then skimmed.

@Everyone

Deep thought here - who thinks every scum voted to lynch Kush?
Then vote Zipper...or Jake if you think he's lying with his claim, but, meh, I'm willing to let him go second because of that.

[Cybertronix]

I wanted Zipper gone yesterday.

VOTE: Zipperflesh

This kthx/quints situation is giving me a headache. I'll look at it tomorrow.

Hey, before you so easily dismiss the nights actions and what they might mean could you at least answer the questions so far??? Seriously, it's not like a whole lot has happened to confuse you. Don't avoid answering questions...

If your question is about your post regarding you sounding like you were going to shoot d3x, then no. You were being vague about who you were shooting so I don't think it sounded like you were going after him.

I was tired after a long day of snowboarding so I wanted to look at this with a clear mind. I wasn't dismissing it, I noted it and said I'd look at it.

I understand the situation, but it doesn't make it any clearer.

[Cybertronix]

@Cyber: You said yesterday that giving Kthx a Day proves whether or not he is lying. Do you think he is lying? Opinion on qwints?

I was following your logic about allowing a day to go by before we pass judgement. I'm having a hard time believing Kthx at the moment though. That's the gut talking. Quints feels more town than kthx to me.

[killerjester]

I'm paying attention to the fact that your player slot didn't really add any substance.
I'm paying attention to the fact that early in the day, you were 'adding to the discussion' by pointing out semantics from the wiki on what's allowed in a Normal.
I'm paying attention to the fact that you're debating percentages for something that there's really know way of knowing, continuing the trend of not adding substance.

Well I can't really help your opinion on the player previously in this slot, yet you do seem to have a bit of selective reading in the latter two. Yes, you'll be able to find

some

information aspects in my posts and

some

analytical aspects. The same could be said for any townie. I mean I won't say that I've been a shining beacon of content so far, but you're blind if you think I haven't made my substantial feelings on Jake clear.

[Jake from State Farm]

Hey, kj, I don't really care if you think my reasons are shit. I think AP is scum, he's cleared by cop so to me the only option is he's actually town or GF. How I process that in my head is my own business.

@ AP - yesterday as in day 2 or yesterday as in Saturday? Idk even understand the point of the question. RE: zipper - I think he's probably scum but I'm still waiting to do my re-read

[zipperflesh]

v/la until tues... maybe earlier... busy weekend at work...

[Kthxbye]

I was trying to figure out why everyone was all about me shooting zipper and now lynching zipper....after a quick ISO, I understand and agree. I can always shoot Qwints again tonight. His last 3 posts before the v/la bother me the most. If we don't lynch him today, I may even be persuaded to switch my shot from Qwints to him tonight. Something is just...off.

[Kthxbye]

^
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Zipper

[Jake from State Farm]

I'd love to hear your case on him, besides "everyone said to shoot him"

[Thor665]

@Jake - why are you not thinking Zipper is scum?

Could you show me any scum group you believe in that lacks him?

[Thor665]

@Jake - also, why isn't AP an investigation immune SK?

[Kthxbye]

You can reread my post about him if you'd like. Pressure never hurts anyone...unless they are scum of course.

Also everyone said to shoot him.

[AngryPidgeon]

Lthx, why is Thor a town read? Quick bullet points for me. no quotes

[Jake from State Farm]

@Jake - why are you not thinking Zipper is scum?

Could you show me any scum group you believe in that lacks him?

Where did I say I don't think he is scum?

@Jake - also, why isn't AP an investigation immune SK?

I think kthx is the SK, read my posts better ok? Thanks.

[AngryPidgeon]

Why the fuck do we still think an SK exists.