Mafiastuck (GAME OVER TOWN WINS!)

[DeltaWave]

That's a thought.

[DeltaWave]

In my eyes Bumi has already established himself as a liar with that horrible vox gambit so I have no clue what to believe.

[buldermar]

We aren't controlling his kills. We're telling him to shoot people that he's okay with shooting anyways.

There is no way to tell the difference, nor is the difference of any importance. If we want him to shoot the persons he shoots, it's all good. If he doesn't want to shoot a person we want him to shoot, we simply lynch him.

[ActionDan]

We aren't controlling his kills. We're telling him to shoot people that he's okay with shooting anyways.

There is no way to tell the difference, nor is the difference of any importance. If we want him to shoot the persons he shoots, it's all good. If he doesn't want to shoot a person we want him to shoot, we simply lynch him.

agree.

Also there is no 5th black scum by both the rules of probability (we lynched all the canonical members of MC before the 5th mystery man) and intuition (lol really 5 black scum + 4 green + SK = 1/3 players are anti-town).

So this clears Nacho barring bumi/Nacho team. Nacho GF and the balance of power is too fucked up for me to consider.

However, I am trying to figure out why AV didn't see Bumi visit Mehdi. Green scum roleblocking either Bumi/AV are the only options. And I'd argue that balance would dictate that it'd be X-shot RB.

The next question I have is if scum is out of roleblock shots. If they aren't, testing Vifam would be a disaster in the making. I lean that they are out.

[DeltaWave]

You make a good point. It's probably 4 green 4 black. Which would mean two remaining greenscum.

[DeltaWave]

That makes Sanjay's hammer interesting. There's a high likelihood that he was screwing around because he knew he was toast.

[Bumi]

Why did you think I was black scum?

[Bumi]

Nacho, I was willing to test Vifam because of the early onset Paranoia Disease I see in this town (Ald).
Delta when we're trying to engage me in conversation? Last time I voted you said "airtight case bro". This time you asked who my scum reads are which I took as a way for you to try and post suspicion away from yourself.

[Bumi]

My mind is in other places right now... We're = were, post = push

[DeltaWave]

Why did you think I was black scum?

Green already had a JOAT.

[Bumi]

So you believe that I am a Joat... But think I am scum. Why? My only confirmed ability was on Vifam (neoghborize). Why do you believe my Joat powers but not my alignment?

[DeltaWave]

I don't believe you're a JOAT. If you bother to read my posts you'll see that I re-read what you did and came to the conclusion that I don't believe anything you say.

[Bumi]

I don't believe you're a JOAT. If you bother to read my posts you'll see that I re-read what you did and came to the conclusion that I don't believe anything you say.

But I have to be telling the truth about something since I did have an ability confirmed already by Vifam.

[Bumi]

It looks like a scum-motivated attempt to kill off a watcher. Now that I'm re-reading those posts it's very likely Bumi is black scum JOAT.

But at this time you thought I was a black scum joat.

Let me get this straight. Hi working manju.

Dw... you thought I was black scum joat with 2 other black mafia members alive one of which I pushed lynch for several times (and wanted him shot) and the other that I advocated Mehdi to shoot and immediately called her out when i replaced into the game. You thought... that I as the black scum joat would be the one to risk my neck and go for a 1v1 with Avox even though Mehdi and 2 maybe 3 other scum members on the opposing team existed simply to kill a watcher when we had more expendable members to do the killing (dgb). You thought that I would do all of that in which case it would more likely benefit the opposing scumteam than my own given the situation I put myself in as black scum?

It doesn't work that way.

[BT]

Looking at current flips, it seems likely to me that we're dealing with uneven scumteams. Green scum has crazy power so far and black scum really doesn't have anything comparable, which tells me that black scum is probably a big scumteam with a smaller greenteam. At this stage in the game, especially if Mehdi and Maenara were the last two green scum, a good hard bus would be a hell of a boon to the scumteam, especially when Mehdi is coming under a bit of pressure and it's possible he will be lynched; Maenara isn't going to be able to carry the scumteam alone unless she's stuck in a "yeah totally town pile", which probably isn't going to happen without some shenanigans going on.

The problem is that when Mehdi flips scum, that never confirms Maenara as town, no matter how heavily Maenara bussed Mehdi. Then how does the bus have any value?

Doesn't confirm, confirm, but it would put Maenara pretty solidly in the town pile. And if the town decides to go through PoE lynches for a while, this can leave Maenara in a pretty solid spot that's a far more realistic chance of winning than a Mehdi-Maenara scumteam would have if they tried to play as what would essentially be a lover pair.

That's not what's happening so that argument is backwards. What's happening currently is that both of Mehdi and Maenara are certainly getting lynched before LyLo unless Mehdi specifically flips town. In other words, their odds of winning both as individual players and as a team

has

decreased substantially

because a) Mehdi tried to pull the gambit and b) Maenara didn't go for the gambit. Anyway, it's a WIFOM scenario that we disagree on.

We know this now. They didn't know it then. Although they're not both greenscum, Mehdi was in an ideal situation and the whole sequence of events had no reason to occur.

[BT]

To be honest I'm getting constant second thoughts because the whole Mehdi-Mae story is too bizarre when we're out of the loop like this and there's no way to 'fix' said bizarre-ness. I'm mostly basing the wagon off of scummy play now because that's what you do in this situation, you overlook role madness bullshit.

If it's not clear I support testing the doc.

Nacho I don't get the Vifam-cleared part?

[DeltaWave]

It looks like a scum-motivated attempt to kill off a watcher. Now that I'm re-reading those posts it's very likely Bumi is black scum JOAT.

But at this time you thought I was a black scum joat.

Let me get this straight. Hi working manju.

Dw... you thought I was black scum joat with 2 other black mafia members alive one of which I pushed lynch for several times (and wanted him shot) and the other that I advocated Mehdi to shoot and immediately called her out when i replaced into the game. You thought... that I as the black scum joat would be the one to risk my neck and go for a 1v1 with Avox even though Mehdi and 2 maybe 3 other scum members on the opposing team existed simply to kill a watcher when we had more expendable members to do the killing (dgb). You thought that I would do all of that in which case it would more likely benefit the opposing scumteam than my own given the situation I put myself in as black scum?

It doesn't work that way.

What exactly is your motivation for ignoring my current conclusion and instead debating with me on comments I made while I was still analyzing the situation?

[Mehdi2277]

Nacho I've repeatedly brought it up since day 4 with the amount of discussion we've had on me being a sk. Your theory is proven false by nature of no one in the game is a town damara megido. Making theories that take 3 seconds to disprove and then voting me. The moderators specifically said they wouldn't answer to whether there's a mistake in thread unless clearing a bp is a better idea.

Continuing me and mae green scum has had problems for a while as a theory which is why it was kind of considered impossible day 4.

The main problem with the mae bus mehdi theory is I was in the much better position an had her as mehdi confirmed at the time. Plus the extra kill doesn't work although kills this entire game have gone strangely. Green limited mafia vig is implausible if you want to go with the weakest option I can be.

Green having a doc as another pr with what they've had seems really doubtful so vifam being a doc would clear up because of it.

[Mehdi2277]

And dw what you thought before can be argued just as fine as what you thought now. All it really does is looking at not current posts.

[Mehdi2277]

To be honest I'm getting constant second thoughts because the whole Mehdi-Mae story is too bizarre when we're out of the loop like this and there's no way to 'fix' said bizarre-ness. I'm mostly basing the wagon off of scummy play now because that's what you do in this situation, you overlook role madness bullshit.

If it's not clear I support testing the doc.

Nacho I don't get the Vifam-cleared part?

And my scummy play is? If it's mae then there's a pretty obvious problem to mae first already mentioned.

[Mehdi2277]

Oh and VOTE: deas for the reasoning I had yesterday.

[DeltaWave]

And dw what you thought before can be argued just as fine as what you thought now. All it really does is looking at not current posts.

I called Bumi a JOAT while I was thinking it over, then times changed and I realized that I don't even believe

that

about him. Bumi is trying to find any kind of inconsistency to justify his vote, but this is just ridiculous.

Bumi is well over his head in confirmation bias. The question is whether he's doing that as newbtown or as newbscum.

[DeltaWave]

Bumi, opinion of DV?

[Nachomamma8]

We aren't controlling his kills. We're telling him to shoot people that he's okay with shooting anyways.

There is no way to tell the difference, nor is the difference of any importance. If we want him to shoot the persons he shoots, it's all good. If he doesn't want to shoot a person we want him to shoot, we simply lynch him.

It's also... day 6, 15 alive. Assuming 2 green scum left, we would have 4 town-directed kills before lylo if we lynch Mehdi today. 4 town directed kills that we go through bulletproof and roleblocks. If we let Mehdi live, tomorrow is 12 alive, the day after that is 9 alive, and then we have to lynch Mehdi because the day after that is 6 alive otherwise, meaning then there will be 7 alive. Meaning we still have 4 town directed kills before LyLo, except two of them won't be Maenara, they will be able to be roleblocked, and they will not go through bulletproof. In addition, the town directed kill before we are forced to lynch him is probably going to be a "fuck you" kill unless Mehdi is feeling super close to the town. So.

Nacho I've repeatedly brought it up since day 4 with the amount of discussion we've had on me being a sk. Your theory is proven false by nature of no one in the game is a town damara megido. Making theories that take 3 seconds to disprove and then voting me. The moderators specifically said they wouldn't answer to whether there's a mistake in thread unless clearing a bp is a better idea.

Let's talk about you being an SK. Proven false by no one being damara megido? Because you gave maenara your safeclaim?
Nope.

[DeasVail]

DV are you town or scum? Be honest.

Er....