Open 474 - Friends and Enemies - Game Over!


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Post Post #500 (ISO) » Wed Jan 30, 2013 5:31 pm

Post by serrapaladin »

In post 492, Docteur Gudsight wrote:And is it bad to change the argument when you show part of it doesn't fit perfectly?

Actually, I think it is. If you base a conclusion on an argument which is shown to be faulty (which happens - memory isn't perfect), you shouldn't slightly amend that argument to support the same conclusion, but you should consider whether your conclusion is actually valid. I think your case against Jenn has been pieced together quite artificially in order to fit the conclusion you had about that slot from Josh.

You may think her read on Jacob is more substantiated than that on goodmorning, but she doesn't have to feel the same way. I see nothing wrong with her vote on GM. Instead, I am rather concerned by you trying to push this.
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Post Post #501 (ISO) » Wed Jan 30, 2013 7:26 pm

Post by Docteur Gudsight »

Can you find me scum who feel the same way? You're pretty asking me there to convince my suspect into thinking their scum which isn't possible with a scum claim that's ridiculously unlikely to happen. All accusations have the defendant not feel the same way. Whenever you argue town reads you make it always sound like that since theirs an explanation it isn't scummy. She can a give a perfect explanation and I can still think she's lying and it was scum motivated if it seems that way to me.

The point stayed the same from the start and the point is the important thing. The detail backing it whether it's post 320 or 322 or whatever the number doesn't really matter much imo.

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Post Post #502 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 1:35 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

In post 458, ArcAngel9 wrote:
SCUM FOUND, PLEASE LYNCH THIS WOMAN!!!!!!!!!!!

Which part of that post makes it that urgent?

In post 460, ArcAngel9 wrote:

I partially agree with you on the point that one could suspect someone but not necessarily vote them becuz it is possible that’s not always you reason might not good enough for voting.
Here is what I saw in GoodMorning posts.. Firstly, She had no opinion on Josh, she just agreed with everyone. I might have buy her reason for not voting if she actually have had any reasons except that she pick an easy way to show everyone that she is side with everyone on suspecting Josh , that was more like she was keeping her options to jump in Josh’s wagon, I am also one of them who highly suspects Josh and I still do but Good Morning’s accusation doesn’t seem genuine and more over when I pointed them, she started calling me scum instead of defending herself, that was the counter attack. Now, She is calling bigger scum than Josh because I am being more vocal now. It is okay to me that if others don’t see the GM’s scummy behaviour but this is extremely odd. I know what is my role and her behaviour and response is not something that I can expect from a townie person.

Just agreeing with everyone else doesn't mke a hammer blow that erly in the day any better sn idea. Why would her giving reasons for the read make it a better reason for not hammering?

In post 462, Jennifer wrote:
If it stands out so much, why weren't you screaming about it earlier and trying to get people to join you on your Ven wagon for it? Despite tying Ven and I together as a scum pair and later saying Ven's Josh vote was a "wtf null vote," you never pointed out Ven's vote to people as being scummy or tried to rally people to your wagon. Why not?

There is nothing inherently scummy about bringing someone to L-1 early in the day. There is also nothing inherently scummy about voting someone you haven't made your mind up on and are trying to get a better feel for. Especially as here where the person doesn't have a strong feeling about anyone and feels 'useless' day one. His vote is null to me as a town/scum tell.
I don't scream, that's just not my playstyle, if you push to hard the message will just get lost in the noise. You can argue I'm not pushing hard enough, but I went I don't get responses about things from anyone I tend to go hunt elsewhere. I hate being told to continually look at the same thing, and since I don't want people to be making me do that, I don't make them have to do it about my own posts. I will probably continue to bring it up at different stages of the game as long as the venrob slot lives. (depending on what bork does with it), but continually drilling the same point over and over again without other content just isn't my cup of tea.

The nullness of his vote was in relation to his own reason; aka some crap for joining the growing wagon of a partner. The wtf is that it was unexpected, but the fact it was also an L-1, and votes joining and already quick to form wagon (outside of RVS wagons - though I've seen Venrob do the same thing as scum on page 2, which may be biasing my case slightly) putting someone onto L-1 in practically the same as quickhammering someone. You don't get more opportunistic than voting a null read - which I may add is what you said you were looking for on the wagon.

In post 467, borkjerfkin wrote:Hi

tl;dr while I catch up?

Your slot is scum, you're probably going to convince me otherwise of this by playing a lot better game than your predecessor. (Which wouldn't be hard.)

In post 486, Docteur Gudsight wrote:
It's wagon motion not so much people for it. Seeing the wagon of a scum read dissipate onto a town lean doesn't really help the argument for gm to me.

That and you've never disliked a wagon without focusing on the specific people?

And the scum team has me and jennifer on it together? Although I'll say the venrob/jen connection is a nice thing to catch (serra + jen being the more connected pair still though).

Does the wagon moving onto someone else make the original wagonee less likely to be scum, or is it town moving in a block?
I don't like the speed in which the GM wagon grew either, but I had a slight scumread on GM at the time of growth (mostly gut), so the change is the same level of I don't like the speed, but I tink speed is probably going to continue this game, so I'm not concerned with it anymore.
Venrob is the only person I've disliked reasons of on both wagons, everyone else has been fine with their vote switches.

My scumread on you is less than Venrob/Jennifer associations, but currently I think you make an okay third member of the scum team, I am still looking at other options, but currently mostly on an individual scale.
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Post Post #503 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 3:30 am

Post by Jennifer »

In post 498, NicCage wrote:Jennifer, What do you think of panzer?


I have a town read on him.
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Post Post #504 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 3:56 am

Post by Jennifer »

I've reassessed Goodmorning and still feel comfortable having my vote on her and seeing her lynched today.

For me, it's still primarily that vote on Josh.
- The Mod said in bold colored font that Josh was prodded.
- Josh already hadn't posted for awhile.
- AA9 unvotes Josh, pointing out the fact that Josh hasn't been around and is likely going to be replaced, so she wants to move her vote somewhere useful until/unless he comes back (the pro-town motivation there to being useful with her vote, puts AA9 in town category for me and not willing to see lynched today).
- AA9 also in that same post, votes for Goodmorning, pointing out her suspicion on Goodmorning for agreeing with everyone that Josh is scum but not voting Josh.
- Goodmorning quotes the part of AA9's post calling Goodmorning out for not voting her scum read and votes Josh. Goodmorning does not quote or address the other part of AA9's same, short post which discussed why AA9 was unvoting Josh.

So in essence, Goodmorning's vote on Josh looks defensive, like she was trying to avoid looking scummy like AA9 suspected.

After Goodmorning unovted Josh, she voted for AA9 in post 351.
- Goodmorning said her reason for voting AA9 instead of Venrob or Nic was because AA9's scumminess moved her down GM's list of scum reads (rather than Nic & Ven doing towny things to move up her list)
- But an ISO of AA9 and GM doesn't show much from AA9 between the time GM posted her list of reads and GM voted AA9, and in fact GM mentions in her vote for AA9 that there was no new information to evaluate AA9 on, yet later says it was AA9's actions that brought her down the list.

Goodmorning does mention in her post where she votes for Josh that AA9 "keeps ignoring facts and making up facts to suit herself, like she's not really reading the game and has already decided who is what role," but she hasn't called out Hydra lately who has done the same thing.

So I'm ready to lynch Goodmorning. I also support a lynch on Jacob or Hydra.
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Post Post #505 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 3:56 am

Post by Jennifer »

In post 502, Cheery Dog wrote:putting someone onto L-1 in practically the same as quickhammering someone. You don't get more opportunistic than voting a null read - which I may add is what you said you were looking for on the wagon.


We'll have to agree to disagree then. I don't think putting someone at L-1 is at all like quickhammering, and I think it is a powerful town tool, apart from (but because of) it being one of the requirements to lynch someone.
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Post Post #506 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 3:58 am

Post by Jennifer »

Also @All:

In a game with masons, talking about scum partners when we haven't even seen a flip is imprudent at best. Absolutely take note privately about who you think is linked, so you don't forget what you saw and can refer to it later when there is a scum flip. But until then, don't discuss partnerships with the group. Scum are certain to be masonhunting, and you don't want to help them draw connections they may not have seen.
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Post Post #507 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 4:13 am

Post by borkjerfkin »

So far --

Already mentioned GoodMorning so I'll just reiterate that she leans town.

I think NicCage had the appropriate reaction for what GM did regarding the Josh wagon. He can be town.

Mehdihydra (I'm probably going to call him such) I'm also going to call semi-strong town...#444/#449 is fucking town as shit, and I'm fine with the reasons being on the Josh wagon. The only thing that spooks me here is that hydra dissonance is so easy to fake and I have no idea if the cold feet on Josh/Jennifer is really genuine or not. Still I find nothing else in the ISO worthy of suspicion here.

Jacob is...wow. #164 is derp as hell. #194 seems to imply that all three scum were on the Josh wagon which is hilariously naive. #315 is a lone bright spot of insight I suppose. and then #339 totally shoots everything else out the window and I'm not even going to read anymore yeah we've likely got scum here.
VOTE: Jacob

KX....everything through post ~100 is filler theory discussion. Great. #163 is so so much IIoA. Looks like he's been sitting on fenceville regarding his previous vote ever since Josh left the game, but hasn't really commented on Jennifer's play at all, and that looks to me like he's trying to decide whether or not the Jennifer wagon is going to regain traction.

((I'll vote KX if the Jacob wagon dies.))

Don't like cheery for:
Cheery Dog wrote:Your slot is scum, you're probably going to convince me otherwise of this by playing a lot better game than your predecessor. (Which wouldn't be hard.)

Not a town attitude; this looks like he's setting up to flip flop on me when I inevitably do play a better game than Venrob (and yeah, I've played with Venrob too). I'm going back and forth on whether or not I'm overreacting to this comment. I also have no idea what he's on about in #67 with the vote for my slot and I fail to see how it's supposed to translate to this game at all. Null overall just due to the fact that I have stronger scum reads.

Obviously not done with reads but I like to make my walls manageable.

p-edit: goodposting@Jennifer ^
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Post Post #508 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 4:54 am

Post by goodmorning »

In post 504, Jennifer wrote:
- Goodmorning quotes the part of AA9's post calling Goodmorning out for not voting her scum read and votes Josh. Goodmorning does not quote or address the other part of AA9's same, short post which discussed why AA9 was unvoting Josh.

Because it didn't address me. I quote what I'm responding to.
Prods mean nothing to me, people get prodded and come back all the time, so I tend to assume that's the case. AA9 tends to say a lot of random crap, so I tend to skim unless I'm mentioned by name.

So in essence, Goodmorning's vote on Josh looks defensive, like she was trying to avoid looking scummy like AA9 suspected.

Is there anyone in this game who would worry about
AA9's
suspecting them? Please get real.

After Goodmorning unovted Josh, she voted for AA9 in post 351.
- Goodmorning said her reason for voting AA9 instead of Venrob or Nic was because AA9's scumminess moved her down GM's list of scum reads (rather than Nic & Ven doing towny things to move up her list)
- But an ISO of AA9 and GM doesn't show much from AA9 between the time GM posted her list of reads and GM voted AA9, and in fact GM mentions in her vote for AA9 that there was no new information to evaluate AA9 on, yet later says it was AA9's actions that brought her down the list.

She moved down my list prior to my vote; your slot was still scummiest at that time. Saying there was no new info was in response to your 349, in which you tried to assert that I wasn't exploring my weird feelings on people since 271. AA9 did not post between 271 and 351.

Goodmorning does mention in her post where she votes for Josh that AA9 "keeps ignoring facts and making up facts to suit herself, like she's not really reading the game and has already decided who is what role," but she hasn't called out Hydra lately who has done the same thing.

Really? I don't see that from them. Evidence?

@bork: You call 504 a good post? For shame.
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Post Post #509 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 4:56 am

Post by borkjerfkin »

#506 -- it preempted my post when I tried to post it. I didn't even look at #504 yet.
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Post Post #510 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 5:03 am

Post by goodmorning »

I see. Yeah, 506 is some good advice.

Working on a case for this evening.
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Post Post #511 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 5:21 am

Post by KX »

Just want to make a quick objection @borkjerfkin
First, on 163, yes there was information, however, unless I've lost my ability to read, I also explain what said given information makes me think of the person, making an "a" in place of the "io" more accurate. On the subject of jennifer, I must confess that I'm somewhat null about them atm, play seems town-leaning at a glance, but due to the nature of the slot I'm hesitant. However, I haven't had a chance to read over the thread in detail, which is most likely part of the problem, and really only skimming. I should have a chance later today, at which point I'll see if I notice anything.
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Post Post #512 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 5:27 am

Post by borkjerfkin »

I'll concede that -- it's not as much IIoA as it is just shallow analysis.

Anyway you can have a pass for now re: your last sentence of #511.
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Post Post #513 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 6:11 am

Post by JacobSavage »

*YAWN*

Cherry Dog is likely Town, Jennifer still needs to be lynched.
VOTE: Jennifer
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Post Post #514 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 6:31 am

Post by PJ. »

Jennifer is literally the person I'm least willing to vote right now.
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Post Post #515 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 6:32 am

Post by ArcAngel9 »

Panz, whats your read on GM? I am sorry if you have already stated that before.. but if you can put it across that would be great.

@Mod - Can we get current VOTE tally?
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Post Post #516 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 6:33 am

Post by NicCage »

In post 344, PJ. wrote:Hi

The scum team is Human Destroyer, goodmorning, and the Mehdi Hydra.

You're welcome

Vote: Human Destroyer


Very bold assertions, and my gut doesn't agree with them.

In post 358, PJ. wrote:
In post 345, JacobSavage wrote:Cool Story. What makes you think that?


conforming to an anti town idea in order to fit in, the way he maddogged the josh wagon for silly reasons

Goodmorning for starting a stream of anti-town posts.

Mehdi is gut mostly along with his play between him and HD. I'd be willing to discuss the possibility of Serra being the 3rd scum instead of the hydra simply because he calls out the hydra for doing something antitown and then contradicts himself by doing something incredibly similar.

Not a big fan of the hammer offer coming from jacob with 2 replacements incoming and more then week before deadline. but he's likely town

Jenniferr is town(mostly because Joshw as town and her posting reaffirms)

@KX, unvoting because of a replacement is kind of silly. You're obvious new town but why the unvote? Do you find the Josh slot(now inherited by jenniferr) to be a town slot or a scum slot?

goodmorning reaffirming my heavy scum read on her with the whole unvoting the replacement thing and then voting another lurker. I'm very willing to switch my vote to her if the better and much more tasty Human Destroyer wagon doesn't happen.


I don't see how HD has "conformed to an anti-town idea" at all. I'll admit I don't have a solid read on him, but the case against Josh was pretty good. The reasons behind it weren't silly, to me they made sense. IMO HD was just following his most scum read at the time, as was I. Could HD still be scum? Sure. But the reasons you are bringing against him are weak.

GM leans town to me. I don't think her posts are anti-town. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you mean to say that the fact the she used scum lists makes her posts anti-town. However, her posts were providing reads, and she did at least cite other posts and provide reasons why she felt her reads were the way they were. Klick uses scum lists too, why don't you suspect him?

I think that Jacob could be town also

Josh did not seem town. I think you would have trouble making an argument that his posts were even null. No, to me Josh seemed very scummy, for reasons already stated. I find it strange that you would be so sure on your read on Jennifer.

This makes it sound like you just want to build a wagon, but I'll address that later this post with the help of a quote from KX.

In post 368, PJ. wrote:
In post 366, Human Destroyer wrote:I always do scum lists. Just search around, you'll find them.

Except the case wasn't bad (it isn't applicable anymore because Jennifer strikes me as town on first impression but whatever)


It was definently bad, and listing scum suspects is scummy and anti-town


Could you explain to me why that is so?

In post 367, KX wrote:Btw, just an idea I wanted to throw in. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems to me like what Panzer is trying to do is pressure some who are generally considered town and, more importantly, have managed to slip past any major criticism. While I fully agree with and endorse this idea, at the current time, I think that trying it is rather impractical. Given the current situation, even if you're making a false case, there simply isn't enough to go off of for anything substantial to emerge. The idea behind making a false case should be that a person who's mainly considered town has been, in their own way, flying under the radar, and avoiding criticism. Your goal would be to create a probably highly biased case against them were you jump to many irrational conclusions, and test how they react to pressure and defend themselves. Ideally, this let's you confirm your belief in them being village while eliminating most doubts.

Of course, via this post I would somewhat ruin the point of it, but at this point you may be damaging people's opinions of you. Simply put, there just isn't enough to go off of, even if you try and present things in a tainted light. Ordinarily I would just let things run their course and see if you have anything you haven't said yet, but give the scarcity of the case, I think no good will come of it, and only harm will be done to you. Now, if you truly do think the players you've mentioned are scum, I have to question if you're village. While it's good to pressure those who are more "clean," a useful tactic if you want disruption is to play on people's paranoia and call out said "clean" people as scum, which spreads doubt and can make people fall out of the reach of logic in their assumptions.

So pretty much, if you're bluffing about it all, say so now and hold off until later before you hurt yourself, and if you're serious, then please say why, as I doubt I'm alone in wondering why and being unconvinced.


I REALLY like this post, because I thought the same thing. Maybe panzer is just trying to put pressure on players that haven't seen much pressure before. Pointing this out would surely ruin this play, but I doubt the effectiveness of the play. So I'm joining KX in saying, if you're bluffing it's time to stop, because I think you're scum.

In post 369, PJ. wrote:
In post 367, KX wrote:Given the current situation, even if you're making a false case, there simply isn't enough to go off of for anything substantial to emerge. The idea behind making a false case should be that a person who's mainly considered town has been, in their own way, flying under the radar, and avoiding criticism. Your goal would be to create a prob


Cases are scummy. Creating a false case is probably more scummy. HD and Goodmorning are scum


Well if you think false cases are scummy, then I guess I have no choice but to think you're scum :P

In post 388, PJ. wrote:
In post 378, Human Destroyer wrote:@Panzer

a) Why would a case more likely come from a scum mindset than a town mindset?

b) Which case(s) is/are false and why is/are it/they false?


Cases disrupt the town by causing a back and forth that distracts from scumhunting

KX implied I was making false cases or exaggerating my cases. I was saying that deliberately doing either is scummy.

In post 377, KX wrote:Pretty much just be more specific. You've made a number of claims so far, but call me stupid, I haven't been able to figure out how you arrived at those conclusions. Site specific examples and explain the reasoning behind your conclusion. I mean, you've made stabs at how your logic fits together, such as #358, but, at least for me, you never quite connect them together or to reality. I don't entirely disagree with you, as I said I find they should be investigated more, but I'm not seeing you doing that.


I'm not going to make a post by post case, because those are scummy. Instigating the use of scum suspect list is both anti-town and scummy as it directs the scum and does give the town any real benefit(good morning). Doing something with direct intent of gaining town cred to facilitate a mislynch(hd), Jumping from lurker to lurker to appear more town is scummy(good morning). i'm sure there's more but sleepy.


Cases can easily be scum hunting. The back and forth is very useful to scum hunting, how else are we supposed to look for slips and know where people's opinion's lie?

Well I like post by post cases. Are they always right? no. But they aren't necessarily scummy. Making assertions without backing up your reasoning is scummy.

Having said all of that against you, I'm not going to vote you today.

In post 503, Jennifer wrote:
In post 498, NicCage wrote:Jennifer, What do you think of panzer?


I have a town read on him.


At the current state of things, that's ridiculous. He at least warrants suspicion.
VOTE: Jennifer

The case against Josh was good, and you have done nothing to diminish my suspicion of your slot.
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Post Post #517 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 7:01 am

Post by Docteur Gudsight »

In post 513, JacobSavage wrote:*YAWN*

Cherry Dog is likely Town, Jennifer still needs to be lynched.
VOTE: Jennifer


Sorry, I forgot why Jennifer must be lynched. Can you quickly sum up the case for me?
(Yes I perfectly know the case, I just want Jacob to write it himself)


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Post Post #518 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 7:40 am

Post by JacobSavage »

Avoiding the wagon on Venrob and his own Wagon. Tunneling on KX and then disappering, fun fact he did't site flake, he just disappeared, thats not a good sign especially that close to a lynch.
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Post Post #519 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 7:55 am

Post by borkjerfkin »

NicCage wrote:
At the current state of things, that's ridiculous. He at least warrants suspicion.
VOTE: Jennifer

holy opportunism batman
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Post Post #520 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 7:59 am

Post by borkjerfkin »

Jacob what happened between 322 and 339 that you were willing to hammer Joshifer?
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Post Post #521 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 8:00 am

Post by Human Destroyer »

In post 518, JacobSavage wrote:Avoiding the wagon on Venrob and his own Wagon. Tunneling on KX and then disappering, fun fact he did't site flake, he just disappeared, thats not a good sign especially that close to a lynch.


So everything you said you found him town for.

Scum found guys. Vote Jacob. Ra ra ra.
Are you ready for this?
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NicCage
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Post Post #522 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 8:09 am

Post by NicCage »

In post 519, borkjerfkin wrote:
NicCage wrote:
At the current state of things, that's ridiculous. He at least warrants suspicion.
VOTE: Jennifer

holy opportunism batman


How so?
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Post Post #523 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 8:15 am

Post by JacobSavage »

In post 194, JacobSavage wrote:@All, not a fan of this Josh wagon, the way it's grown suggests there's more than a few scum on it.
As a general rule, mist early D1 wagons are town just due to the nature of them.

In post 195, JacobSavage wrote:
In post 181, Josh Lyman wrote:HELP HELP I'M BEING REPRESSED


And to be fair this is a very town reaction. I mean scum would try and build some sort of defense. The way he acknowledges but also.ignores the wagon.is a very telling sign.


Where did I say I found him town for the Venrob Wagon, the tunneling KX and when he disapppeared?

Ill give you the ignoring his wagon though.
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Post Post #524 (ISO) » Thu Jan 31, 2013 8:27 am

Post by CityElectric »

Votecount 1.10

Jennifer (L-3):
Docteur Gudsight, Cheery Dog, JacobSavage, NicCage
goodmoring (L-4):
ArcAngel9, Jennifer, Panzerjager
JacobSavage (L-4):
Human Destroyer, serrapaladin, borkjerfkin
ArcAngel9 (L-6):
goodmorning


Not voting (2):
Klick, KX

With 13 alive, it's 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends in (expired on 2013-02-06 11:00:00)

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