Mini 1426 - Hell's Bottom


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Post Post #8 (isolation #0) » Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:36 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

Vote KBW


Inconsequental question is inconsequental.

BB can be town for now.
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Post Post #16 (isolation #1) » Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:55 am

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 10, Mr. Flay wrote:I haven't played in quite some time, therefore I am unfamiliar with the current 'power players'. Later it will become important who is still alive and who is dead.


Game is almost all raw newbies unless there are a lot of alts here. Open/MN queues are fun like that, about half regulars specific to these games half newbies.

@BY - So you consider the RVS stage something that we want to get out of early then?
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Post Post #20 (isolation #2) » Sat Feb 23, 2013 2:40 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 19, Blue Yoshi wrote:In my other game getting out if RVS was quick and when we got the ball rolling discussion really picked up.
And we're already starting the transition.


So why more or less keep the game in RVS while acknowledging the vote from BB as non-random but placing a random vote of your own?
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Post Post #23 (isolation #3) » Sat Feb 23, 2013 4:08 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 21, Blue Yoshi wrote:Consider the discussion we are having now.
Crazy, right?


So you didnt respond to him declaring a serious vote in order to hope to have somepony call you on not responding to his serious vote?

For RVS stuff, some players (I tend to be heavily in this camp) aim for the "kill RVS ASAP" move because its just fluff. A couple say they can actually RVS scumhunt, but ive never seen any player with a good track record of it/strong players claim it. Really its just the lull before the game actually starts and its good to finish.

@Bomb - If you have pushed the game out of RVS quickly before, why arent you doing that here?
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Post Post #27 (isolation #4) » Sat Feb 23, 2013 6:14 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 25, Desperado wrote:Rainbow and Yoshi and Bub are all town until further notice, as well


Im pretty unsure about BY at this point and really trying to guage if he even really understands what im getting at here. I dont really think he knows why I think he is scummy and that may negate the validity of the tell. Also you are misinterpreting what Flay is saying which is "first post is going to be basically contentless or a random vote that has no bearing so im going to ask a question". I dont like it, but hey... he may be the only pony here that has been around the block for longer than I have and quints may be the only one who comes close to me.

Bomb needs to not talk about ongoings even in the slightest, you never know what might accidentally drop that requires some mod action or if somepony is an alt or anything like that. Bomb also may very likely be scum. KBW I actually still like for confirmation timing though. Depending on what I get back from Bomb I vote may change soon.
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Post Post #39 (isolation #5) » Sun Feb 24, 2013 7:26 am

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 30, Bomb wrote:Still yet to see a post from qwints, YOLO and keybladewielder. Not sure why they're so keen to lie low.


Why wait for them to post to end RVS? Players flake, we already saw somepony do it. Also only one you can even try to call lurking here is qwints who has been around.

In post 34, jeromus wrote:Yeah, I have something to say to both YOLO and Keybladewielder.

The former, I wish him misfortune for having such an awful name.

The latter, to congratulate him for sharing in my appreciation of a wonderful series.


I'd like to hear from them both though. C'mon, out from under the rug.


So jeromus is a very good scum pick too. Nice to know.

In post 35, Elyse wrote:Also, what's with the somepony thing, Rainbow? I get that it's MLP, but do you do that all game?


Yes. Yes I do.

Also use pictures when its fitting for conveyance of emotion. Welcome to one of if not the oldest roleplaying accounts on the site.

Vote jeromus


Second tier would be something like Bomb and KBW.

Think BY may be more newbie who doesnt get why he is being called scum than scum given his response.
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Post Post #47 (isolation #6) » Sun Feb 24, 2013 9:59 am

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 40, Elyse wrote:Does typing out pony come naturally or do you have to think about it?


Took a few weeks to get good at it, now I as long as I remember who im posting as its pretty simple.

Blue Yoshi wrote:Would you mind sharing where exactly you thought I was scummy, and what about Jeromus's post was scummy? I understand that it was a fluffy post, but your vote seems serious and I would like for you to share.
If you aren't sharing your reads it's going to make it a lot harder for people to communicate with you.


He is paying attention to the part of the game which really is not important while ignoring the things that actually are valid topics of conversation such as Flays opening post and the RVS statements from both BY and Bomb. Its not as much fluff as it is avoidance of key topics to make a quip about the ones that really have no point.

Keybladewielder wrote:Why did you vote me? You don't know anything about me.


You were very slow to confirm despite being around. Its easily enough to justify an early vote, and I actually dont really mind a vote of you still at this point if this is all you really have to say after catching up with the game. Whats even wierder is that you are quoting my "RVS" of you, in which I haddent even said it might not be random. Why dont you have problems with the other random votes?

Also while I am far better at finding town than scum, I do scumhunt. Just its really rare that I go into my classic "hard defense" mode of a player and they are scum. Think ive only ended up doing that once of twice out of a whole bunch of those plays.
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Post Post #54 (isolation #7) » Sun Feb 24, 2013 11:47 am

Post by Rainbowdash »

Yeah KBW is reading more like extreme newbie town although I would like it if he commented on relevant things.

jeromus and Bomb are the better votes.
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Post Post #56 (isolation #8) » Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:02 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 55, Keybladewielder wrote:Blue Yoshi: I have no scumreads as of now, because it is the first few pages. I will give you them when people post more assuming I don't get grounded again.


So your current vote is random/OMUGS?

What are your thoughts on elyse reasons for voting you?
BB for voting Flay?
Me for voting jeromus?

Also I always forget for many little ones play this. That said this may be a rocky week at work for me, managed to get the entire weekend off which is kinda rare but a big deliverable is due this week and im on a later timezone than most to start.
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Post Post #58 (isolation #9) » Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:50 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 57, Keybladewielder wrote:BTW, rainbowdash I am 16. If nyone's little it's you, who watches MLP. Really wanna get in a fight with me about littleness?


Image

As in young as in actually controlled by parental stuffs. Most players here are college or just post college it seems with far more being well post college than high school. At times I forget that some players still are effected by those other types of things.

Elyse is acting stupid.
IDK about BB, in fact I haven't noticed him at all
and I don't recall you voting for jeromus?


So you are claiming no read on Elyse? BB made the second post of the game or so and Desp has been agreeing and expanding on it. I voted jeromus and gave reasons for it later. Really the game is three pages long, its not that much to read yet and this is basic stuff im asking here. Being able to stay caught up on things and giving thoughts helps me and other get reads on you which if you are town is a very good thing.
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Post Post #60 (isolation #10) » Sun Feb 24, 2013 1:25 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 59, Keybladewielder wrote:forgive me for not having perfect vision like you.


Just answer the questions.
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Post Post #70 (isolation #11) » Sun Feb 24, 2013 6:48 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 65, Keybladewielder wrote:I'm probably being stupid here, but what's VI?


Fitting very ironically with your choice of words: Village Idiot. Basically the pony who is always lynch bait and generally seen as not very good.

Also just friendly advice, claiming VT way early and especially under no pressure is tactically a very bad move since it just lowers the PR pool for scum. Yeah players will say stuff that if you look closely at times make it obvious they are VT or a PR and that actually very good for alignment tells at times, but just saying it like you did is really bad if you are town and still fairly poor even if you are scum. If you think im going to break roleplaying which I havent for now getting close to a couple of years... yeah you have another thing coming. If it bugs you that much you are free to replace out since you are apparently overburdened already though.

You also need to give more reasons behind your reads, especially the YOLO one because its a very valid point, not only that KH is one of the most overrated anythings ever but also that jeromus is just sidestepping quite a few key topics of coversation. Im not overly concerned with the rolefishing thing because it was very explicit that you claimed there and (sadly) town seems to comment on those more than scum does.

@mod
- Please include the number of votes on each slot. Also its seven to lynch with 12 alive.
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Post Post #94 (isolation #12) » Mon Feb 25, 2013 2:33 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 91, Keybladewielder wrote:I swear I am not the village idiot.

In fact I doubt said role is even in this game.


Im starting to think we are being trolled. Either this or we are playing with somepony who only reads the post directly ahead of theirs or something.

Best way to deal with VI players is look at motivation behind their moves, depending on the type it can be very easy or difficult to do and work in certain ways. Umbrage (caustic VI) is one of the easiest players to read as scum on the site but are hard to read as town (lest lack of scum read), while more raw newbies are easier to read as town than as scum.

KBW seems to at least be reacting to things in such a way that I can see a thought process and genuine confusion to things. Emotion (yeah yeah coming from me) is not that easy to efficiently fake, especially emotion that takes a shot at making you seem competent. While I think he is wrong and should try doing things a new way, listen to others and base opinions off that, replace out because he is overburneded, etc... im actually thinking KBW is more likely going to be town than scum.

@Elyse - YOLO is actually not super townie, but the fishing tell in that way is somewhat of a town tell. If its obvious what is going on, scum usually will just log that one away while town is more likely to say something blatantly derpy about it. There are more sly ways to fish that are scummy but when KBW says "I am a VT" thats basically something scum would keep hooves off of. His ignoring of everything at first (like jeromus) is scummy but I do somewhat like his last post. Probably is in a null-town group for me.

@jeromus - WHat is your read on KBW?
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Post Post #97 (isolation #13) » Mon Feb 25, 2013 3:20 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 95, jeromus wrote:I wish I could have a clear one, is my read. I have had too many VTs lynched D1 because of crap like KBW's, so I'm so reluctant to lynch him.

That being said, faking VI could work in his favour, which is why when work is over I may well check some of Keyblade's other games.


Well you are obviously kinda defending him (and subtly attacking Flay but no vote) so why are you falling back on "well lets see his meta" then?

Ive been around enough to see his type. Weaker player, seems to take offense to being called it and plays a very reactionary game. Usually will make themselves sorta known if they are town but arent easy to pick as scum.

Anyways, if you are interested in meta KBW is the wrong pony to be poking at.
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Post Post #106 (isolation #14) » Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:13 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

Im still basically voting you for avoiding commenting on a whole lot of stuff. Lots has actually happened, you are mostly just interested on why im voting you it seems.
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Post Post #109 (isolation #15) » Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:31 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 107, jeromus wrote:I just didn't see too much of a reason for it. And that's important.


Why do I feel like im an IC in this game? There is a reason I dont IC as Dash, dont really have the patience.

Anywho

1) What is your read on Flay? What do you think of the push on him by BB and Desp?
2) What do you think of Bomb and his RVS comment?
3) What do you think of KBW? The votes on him?
4) What is your read on YOLO?
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Post Post #138 (isolation #16) » Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:23 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 114, Bomb wrote:
Rainbow
, you seem really concerned with my RVS comment. What was it exactly, the fact that I didn't push the game out of RVS as aggressively as I did in the game I just finished? Or was there something else that concerned you?


Well you say "I did this and it was good", the game is finished and you were town there, then you sorta did the opposite here. Pair that with the lack of really pushing in any big direction and more hanging back from key topics of conversation I think you are a good scum pick. It sorta reads like a player who is really uncomfortable in the game, and with a lot of noise early that tends to equate as scum a whole lot more than town. Even not for new players if something is going on that they dont get most tend to be a little quieter as they try and get a good grasp on what is actually happening.

Also for being aggressive, it really is very situational for me and tends to be mostly due to how aggressive I feel I need to be to keep the game on the tracks. This one we have a lot of really shoddy early play so im going to clamp down hard as opposed to a game I have more ability to sit back and get reads. Dont like being aggro usually, but realize the need in situations.

Also KBW is definantly the VI, whether he actually admits it or not and trys to correct it is how he eventually gets viewed in the course of site meta. Being seen as that at first isnt the end of the world, some players actually have overcame those types of things and are accepted as decent players on the site, others just continue to be shocked and appauled that they are always seen as bad (and if its always - yes you are a VI) .

Basically step it up. Dont complain about being seen as a bad player, do something to prove you arent.

@jeromus - This isnt IRL mafia, im talking so obviously it isnt. Anyways hanging onto your vote is going to make it harder on the rest of us to actually get data out there, so votes are always good. No excuse to be pocketing it in almost every scenario.

Vote Bomb
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Post Post #140 (isolation #17) » Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:32 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 139, Keybladewielder wrote:I am the vanilla townie, not the village idiot, that is just my play style


Image

wow

At this point I almost HOPE its trolling and not for real.

Look - I dont want to get really pissed off here but you are testing me quite a bit.

Stop, gather your thoughts, gather the reasoning for those thoughts and put them together in a post. Stop claiming (even though you already have) because that is anti-town in just about all scenarios when its unprompted, basically you are playing against your win condition by doing such as town. You role is not "VI", there is no such role (in real mafia) but you are acting like one. You are the player in the game who the rest of us are seeing as the one who is untrustworthy logically, is the worst of the group, and the one we would like to do something useful for one.

Dont be that pony. That pony eventually has a hard time finding games that they arent openly mocked in, policy lynched in, have part of the playerlist replace out when they join, etc.
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Post Post #144 (isolation #18) » Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:55 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 143, Keybladewielder wrote:Rainbow: Please stop using the term pony, it is realt creepy. No offense. And yeah there is, I played that role once at a party game of mafia.


Saying party mafia and forum mafia are the same thing is basically like saying Ping Pong and Tennis are the same thing. If you just look at them they are kinda similar but if you know anything about both of them they are not really all that similar once you pass core mechanics.

If you have played with somepony who uses VI as a role, smack them and tell them what mafia actually is before they hurt your ability to actually play it.

Also no stopping pony. I can full on roleplay and start using puns though if you want. Yay or neigh?
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Post Post #158 (isolation #19) » Tue Feb 26, 2013 7:00 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 157, Keybladewielder wrote:Prod dodge


If you are seriously going to be posting from an ipod for a week or so please just replace out. You already are not being productive and apparently you will not have the means to be for an extended period of time. Plus we might have somepony playing who knows something about the way the site works and is willing to listen to such when they are told.
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Post Post #168 (isolation #20) » Wed Feb 27, 2013 3:16 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

@Bomb - I dont have much of an issue with Flay right now, really the mane thing is a WIFOM arch and the fact that he never voted BY when he was putting the pressure on him. I have no issue at all with him pushing a policy lynch (probably a mild towntell), there are a few players who I would have no problem lynching even if they were almost for sure town because they are that much of a liability/distraction/etc. KBW is close to that, really the game would be easier with him gone if he is town because that vortex of nothing would be gone.

You however really havent been taking hard stances on too much. Most of your effort seems to be in response to me calling you scum and a lot of generalizations over things.

Also the "acting like KBW is town" is a pretty weak point unless its far out of the players persona. I tend to lock down hard defending those who I think are town and put all the weight I can behind calling them town. When far more than just Flay are calling KBW basically for sure town, im not sure why Bub latches onto that point more than anything else, and his sidestep of all other lines of conversation actually bugs me quite a bit at this point.
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Post Post #180 (isolation #21) » Thu Feb 28, 2013 2:54 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

Vote jeromus


Im fine going back here. He seems to continually be trying to direct things away from him without really taking any strong stance on it. Again we have apparently some of the lack of content from him be because of the lack of content from YOLO? Who if we are going off lack of content isnt even the scummiest pony out there? Maybe most scapegoaty since a few have called him scum, but it seems a choice more ment to try and create paranoia instead of catch scum.

Really while im still not going to say there is no case for YOLO being scum, jeromus seems to be trying to take the easy one with attacking him for lurking.
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Post Post #191 (isolation #22) » Sat Mar 02, 2013 2:32 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

Game needs votes from those not voting.

Those votes on jeromus who still continues to avoid posting anything that resembles a strong stance is a good thing. Most of his posts are just complaining about lack of posting from others. Its literally been about a week since we got anything that was a read on somepony. A week. From somepony who is posting a whole lot.
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Post Post #211 (isolation #23) » Sun Mar 03, 2013 6:46 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 208, jeromus wrote:Well, at least now I don't have to be nervous about a ridiculous hammer from KBW, that's a plus.

Also, not while I'm at work pls, if I'm to die today, let me have a good ol' bigass post. No sense in hammering with this much time left and me yet to give my player-by-player.


Claim.

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Post Post #251 (isolation #24) » Tue Mar 05, 2013 2:39 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

STOP POSTING READS IF YOU THINK JEROMUS IS SCUM.

Seriously mafia 101 everypony.
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Post Post #253 (isolation #25) » Tue Mar 05, 2013 2:51 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 252, Keybladewielder wrote:I figured I might as well get it out there


Image

*sigh*

Okay then, IC mode it is.

If you really dont have a problem with the lynch (and are not the obvious kill regardless of a flip) then giving out an excess of information shortly before the day ends is a bad move because it removes half of what scum need to do at night to be effective which is guage reads on who is lynchable and who isnt. If we all said exactly what we think of everypony else, scum know if somepony is a much stronger town read than they thought or is more lynchable than they thought.

So basically if you think jeromus is scum still basically say so and shush.

Im a little conflicted due to him hitting the strong VT tell (he claimed VT either intentionally or not a page or so prior) mixed with a decent scumtell (everypony give all your reads). So still, guaging, waiting, figuring out.
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Post Post #278 (isolation #26) » Wed Mar 06, 2013 3:04 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

vote jeromus


Original.
Last edited by 10506670 on Wed Mar 06, 2013 6:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #287 (isolation #27) » Wed Mar 06, 2013 6:54 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

I actually thought I unvoted so was hammering.

Either way I still kinda support a lynch here since if jeromus is town a few reads swing hard.
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Post Post #291 (isolation #28) » Wed Mar 06, 2013 8:02 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 290, jeromus wrote:Not dead? Sweeeeeeeeeeeet


And still not giving us those reads.
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Post Post #299 (isolation #29) » Thu Mar 07, 2013 2:51 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

If we arent lynching jeromus we are lynchin AA or BY.

Really Jeromus is smart enough to know he wasnt lynched especially since it just happened before that as well (still could have sworn I unvoted and was really hammering) I think ive done this as scum and know ive seen scum do it even although I would need to go back and find it. Negative reactions are really all you hope for there. His reads are leaving something to be desired, he really isnt taking a strong stance for the most part.

One thing that kinda irks me is this is 12P and jeromus called out a two pony scumteam. For those who dont know the history of MS (most of you) mini games used to be capped at 12 players, but that changed around a year ago to 13 player which is more balanced for 3 scum teams. At this point 12P is usually only used in PR heavy and two scum setups.

So yeah, im still happy with jeromus lynch.
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Post Post #302 (isolation #30) » Thu Mar 07, 2013 3:16 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

Vote AA


Sheep me (that means follow votes/thoughts if you really dont know) or get lynched maybe your only options.

AA really has done buggerall this game. Last few comments are calling the attack on HD "not fair" which is a really bizzare choice of wording, and maybe calling jeromus scum? I dunno. I really cant tell any of her reads at this point and when we are weeks into the game thats a pretty major issue.

She actually hasnt even votes since RVS. Lets wagon this instead of whatever yall are doing elsewhere.
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Post Post #308 (isolation #31) » Thu Mar 07, 2013 5:02 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

So if AA is town jeromus is probably town. Same with jeromus being scum meaning AA is scum.

Good to know good to know. Note those are both "A is true means B is true" without "B is true A is true" attached.
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Post Post #327 (isolation #32) » Fri Mar 08, 2013 3:03 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

@Elys - Because AA is actively avoiding the game including stances on big wagons. Sometimes running up players like that actually gets them talking and they tend to give off lots of tells. Her reaction was pretty bad.

That said im trying to figure out if BY scumslipped or not in 310 where he seems to take an assumption that jeromus is town when last stated he was his top scumread and was expressing intent to hammer.
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Post Post #342 (isolation #33) » Sun Mar 10, 2013 1:21 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 340, Bub Bidderskins wrote:I don't like that self-meta defense.


Its not somuch the self-defense meta which is fine if somepony is attacking you on known to be false meta, its that her entire defense to "she is avoiding taking stances" is "scum are trying to lynch me when im on V/LA" and calling anypony who attacks her scum.

Its interesting that AA assumes she is under fire for something she isnt under fire for maybe?

Also using "but im bad at mafia" as a defense is probably one of the closest things to "lynch all X" that should be followed

@Elyse - Explain why you are ready to lynch AA and what your read on her is.
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Post Post #346 (isolation #34) » Sun Mar 10, 2013 2:01 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 343, Mr. Flay wrote:Elyse how did you go from "why is AA obv scum?" to "I'm willing to l(y)nch AA now" in less than 24 hours? Why are you dropping your major suspicions of BY just because he's replacing?


Well Flay beat me to the ultimate point I was trying to lead her to.

Not sure how Elyse is at all geting "null-scum" as her early read of AA through her reaction to the wagon which seemed like the reaction of somepony who didnt understand the wagon at all.

Same time though im not too sure Elyse actually does defend jeromus like she does if she is scum, especially since there was still some push for his wagon. No doubt she oversells that she was the one who got the lynch diverted off him, but given her jump away from it im not sure she fits too well as scum without him.

AA just feels like the better pick here. Just look at her posting when jeromus gets ran up. Nothing related to him. Ever. Closest was (maybe?) still calling him scum when he said he doesnt know what sheeping is.
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Post Post #372 (isolation #35) » Thu Mar 14, 2013 5:56 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

If that was a vig we should massclaim.
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Post Post #392 (isolation #36) » Sat Mar 16, 2013 9:15 am

Post by Rainbowdash »

Really, if anypony is a vig because I dont get that kill at all from scum... now is the time to claim it because it means a kill was probably blocked which means we are looking at a pretty nice group of confirmed town.

If it was a scum kill this just needs to be approached differently.
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Post Post #398 (isolation #37) » Sat Mar 16, 2013 6:19 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 395, Mr. Flay wrote:Speaking of which, I'd like to see your next post contain something other than vig-spec, dash. So far you've avoided any reaction to D1 entirely.


Im just confused really.

BY makes no sense outside of a KBW/jeromus shot because it looks like a PR shot (at what I thought was almost for sure VT) and a shot at a player who easily could be lynched. KBW though I have been reading as townish although at some points (especially around wagons) not as such, could be that "so scummy just looks like bad player so statistically town" or something. Jeromus I thought was town for NOT voting AA when given the chance and me half threatening him with a lynch if he didnt do such, but again now im not as sure.

Most others I dont think would kill BY outside of a stalling kill but that usually suggests scum in a good spot (Desp in particular, gut still going crazy there but I cant find the reasons) or just a reason we cant see at point blank. Most of my reads are being challenged by this and im lazy enough to not want to put the couple hours into reorginizing that I need to if its not actually needed.

Maybe im just holding out hope, but will probably figure something out soon. Thinking vote for one of KBW/Desp/HD, outside chance YOLO.

I actually think the most town from this kill is Elyse because not too many scum wipe out the lynchable townie they are tunneled on without stunningly good reason (which would be jeromus scum, specifically jeromus scum). Scum either is new, detached from the game or is somepony like Desp who views other power ponies as willing to defend them. The kill is just so out of left field it seems like im missing something, I always keep my list of "who I wont believe a PR claim from" and BY was close to being on that list... pssh.
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Post Post #411 (isolation #38) » Mon Mar 18, 2013 5:29 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 410, Keybladewielder wrote:VOTE: jeromus

I wanted him dead yesterday, so let's get him now


What happened to one of AA/Elyse?

Im still iffy on jeromus. I just am not sure he doesnt jump the AA wagon if he was scum yesterday. He doesnt look that great but I just really dont think he tries to go off on his own when the wagon on him is falling apart.

Im going this way

Vote YOLO
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Post Post #419 (isolation #39) » Tue Mar 19, 2013 1:58 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

So YOLO is scum for his vote on AA day one after thinking.

In the same post he calls Elyse scum for unvoting jeromus post the fake hammer(s) because jeromus easily could have faked it. Later he votes AA for saying jeromus is scum who faked it mixed in with 'general non-content' which he didnt deem as a good reason to vote jeromus.
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Post Post #423 (isolation #40) » Tue Mar 19, 2013 6:27 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 420, Mr. Flay wrote:RBD doesn't your YOLOvote require jeromus to be scumbuddies with him, though? I'm not following but it may be the lack of commas. Also I don't like the company being kept on the jeromuswagon.


It does not.

If YOLO was scum I would be more inclined to vote jeromus but its an independent read.
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Post Post #429 (isolation #41) » Wed Mar 20, 2013 4:52 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

@Elyse - Does your kill end the day? If not what does it do to votes and deadline?
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Post Post #431 (isolation #42) » Wed Mar 20, 2013 5:00 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 430, Keybladewielder wrote:Who died last night? I didn't check.


Umm... you already directly responded to Flay saying you killed BY because he was suspicious of you.
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Post Post #443 (isolation #43) » Thu Mar 21, 2013 2:45 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 442, qwints wrote:Elyse I'm pretty sure you're town, so I believe your claim. Vig your biggest scum read.


Only assuming you are killing KBW or jeromus. Otherwise you ask for a claim.
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Post Post #459 (isolation #44) » Sat Mar 23, 2013 4:41 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

Desp is actually probably scum, he is scum if KBW is scum. Gut is actually gaining some brain confidence here. Flay sorta scummy too, if YOLO is scum he dies immediately for his comment right after my YOLO vote.

Vote KBW


For the time being as I work stuff out. The D2 wagon on jeromus is just so ugly in light of the flip from him. Really as I said the lack of wanting to get on AA was a towntell only in part shot down by the bizzare kill.

But really, two pairings to watch ultra close for here are Desp-KWB and Flay-YOLO. quints probably rounds out the "good lynches" group. Im happy calling HD and BB town for now.
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Post Post #463 (isolation #45) » Sun Mar 24, 2013 11:51 am

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 462, qwints wrote:RBD, how does the Jeromus flip affect your YOLO scum read?


Not much, but something setup wise im speculating on makes me a little less sure of it. If this setup is what im almost positive it is, YOLO actually has a high chance of being town due to mod oversight.

KBW over the last few pages has gone from null-town VI to scum though. I really dont believe he has played the entire game day without knowing who died when he responded to Flay saying he was scum because of BY dying.

@Desp - You basically ignored the entire KBW stuff early, and the lategame stuff except for a joking shrug off of it. When you go overboard on commenting on other VI-type players it sticks out as newer scum who is competent just not knowing how to deal with a VI partner. Also KBW in return ignores you.

I also did defend jeromus yesterday given how he stayed off a counterwagon I lobbed to him, and if it wasnt for the fact that BY died pointing to some underlying scum motivation, would have never let him get to where he was today. I still think you are a really good pick for scum though, especially as your response to me saying I disliked the wagon on him was "its everyponys fault".
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Post Post #471 (isolation #46) » Mon Mar 25, 2013 1:28 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

Desp kinda missing that "not mentioning" and "ignoring" arent quite the same thing. He throws KBW to the VI-townish pile early when thats where the game is taking him and never looks at him again from that point. KBW in turn doesnt engage Desp except when prompted... or apparently unless I call them scum together.

Also intereting that first time he responds to my calling jeromus town is AFTER he died. Really to respond to that though, scum unless they know they are doomed (im not sure that jeromus is good enough scum to read those situations) will not lock themselves out of a mislynch that quickly.
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Post Post #480 (isolation #47) » Tue Mar 26, 2013 1:03 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 472, qwints wrote:
In post 471, Rainbowdash wrote:(im not sure that jeromus is good enough scum to read those situations)


Who did you actually mean to talk about here?


I ment who I said, just a past-tensy thing for why I was thinking he was town. If scum knows they are dead they can change how they act (ive done this one that gave faction easy win twice), but im not sure jeromus was in such position or would have pulled that move.

KBW needs dead now. I dont believe he is a bad enough player that he forgot who died after responding to accusations of being scum because BY was killed earlier.
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Post Post #486 (isolation #48) » Tue Mar 26, 2013 1:31 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

btw if there are only two scum Desp is probably town (maybe even if KBW is scum).

And if im guessing what this setup is correctly there are only two scum, which might make YOLO town too. Just throwing all of that out there.
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Post Post #501 (isolation #49) » Fri Mar 29, 2013 4:43 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

Nah we are massclaiming because of obvious.

HD goes last. One of quints/Desp starts and popcorn
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Post Post #504 (isolation #50) » Fri Mar 29, 2013 7:38 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 503, qwints wrote:I veto massclaim. RBD:

Yes/no to desparado lynch.


We are massclaiming.

Your veto counts for nothing. If you dont claim im 100% fine voting you until you do claim.
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Post Post #523 (isolation #51) » Sat Mar 30, 2013 7:44 am

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 521, qwints wrote:The massclaim will not continue until everyone has weighed in on Despeardo's status.


Okay quints actually might be scum for this one.
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Post Post #525 (isolation #52) » Sat Mar 30, 2013 8:54 am

Post by Rainbowdash »

My opinion is that we are massclaiming before we do anything else.

Its literally bad play to throw out a bunch of stuff before that.
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Post Post #538 (isolation #53) » Sun Mar 31, 2013 7:49 am

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 534, qwints wrote:Now he's already claimed VT. Unless there's a PR that can clear him or who can implicate someone else, I don't buy that a mass claim is going to give us a better suspect. If that's the case, then doing anything besides lynching Desperado is a bad idea.


I dont.

Last chance. If you dont claim in your next post my next post will have a vote for you.
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Post Post #546 (isolation #54) » Sun Mar 31, 2013 1:41 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

We finish massclaim now.

I actually was kinda thinking thats what qwints was going to claim but we definantly finish massclaim now.
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Post Post #548 (isolation #55) » Sun Mar 31, 2013 1:46 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

Its qwints popcorn from here. Im tossing out what I thought the setup was so I dont care about saving anypony at this point as if he is scum in what the original setup I thought was he is dead in the water and we are safe.
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Post Post #551 (isolation #56) » Sun Mar 31, 2013 1:56 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 549, Human Destroyer wrote:So...what's the setup you're thinking of then?


I was thinking of all vanilla but Elyse and the some weak scum one off (one shot gunsmith, etc) to make it essentially mountainous. Was thinking this was two scum up until that claim.

Given that thats me claiming vanilla, flay can claim next.

@qwints - Because like Desp said, that was a really bad investigation if you are scum. Depending on what massclaim is, it could cleanly confirm you or not just for balance reasons.
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Post Post #553 (isolation #57) » Sun Mar 31, 2013 4:58 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 552, qwints wrote:
In post 551, Rainbowdash wrote:Because like Desp said, that was a really bad investigation if you are scum.


Huh?


You know what I ment.

The investigation was a really bizzare choice, although im actually pretty glad you have a clear on Elyse after the NK. But you dont normally investigate the player you are planning to be voting, hit the outside null suspects because its easier to "change" reads.

As I said, we are finishing massclaim.
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Post Post #557 (isolation #58) » Mon Apr 01, 2013 1:24 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 556, qwints wrote:EBWOP "meaning I might have a chance to get another investigation in without scum being aware of my role"


Force scum to make a play a day early. They probably can tell exactly what the setup is in a mini, last few ive been in as scum once a couple town PRs claimed I knew exactly what to be expecting. Most recently I was in a two scum team, tracker and cop claimed which ment we had a traitor for sure and given other players behavior there was another PR meaning our traitor should have a role. Right on all accounts.

Basically good scum should know whats going on at this point. All that holding cards to ourselves is going to do is make our decisions more uninformed. Besides... all thats left is Flay/YOLO/DH and I would put quite a few bits on being able to correctly peg them all as PR/not PR already. Two in particular who really need to work on their signals. Also no im not saying what it is until after they claim because there is one instance where I would lynch a PR/VT claim without hesitation.

So yeah, we are finishing the claim here.
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Post Post #578 (isolation #59) » Tue Apr 02, 2013 1:05 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

yeah scum shouldnt have a RBer with those claims. Kinda was hoping HD or YOLO (both beyond obvious VT setups, especially YOLO) would have gone for a fakeclaim as scum though. If there was a RBer I would almost expect just two scum.

Anyways.

Flay is one scum, second one is more of a tossup but im thinking YOLO

Vote Desp
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Post Post #583 (isolation #60) » Tue Apr 02, 2013 2:05 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 582, qwints wrote:HD, you do realize that this just allows desp to self-hammer and prevent any more discussion of tells. I'm at a complete loss for why you wanted to prevent a quick lynch to mass claim but are pushing it now.


Probably because there is no point unless you want to say stuff at this point. Kill is probably already decided for scum.

unvote


Go for it.
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Post Post #586 (isolation #61) » Tue Apr 02, 2013 2:15 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 584, qwints wrote:Just to understand, you fought against the quick lynch I proposed because you thought YOLO or HD claiming a PR would be a scum slip?


Yes.

Kick them into a claim early. If YOLO claimed a PR it was basically a scum claim, HD and I would have had him as a top pick. As wierd as it is, my special talent in this game is picking out who is VT before they claim and I tend to be really accurate with it when im ready to lock hard into a lynch (jeromus was same boat early on). I didnt want to give them time to discuss anything with other scum - the more you can force newer scum to act on their own the better chance of them just messing up.
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Post Post #588 (isolation #62) » Tue Apr 02, 2013 2:41 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 587, Mr. Flay wrote:
In post 578, Rainbowdash wrote:Flay is one scum

Quoi?


Mostly how Desp accused jeromus of coaching you (only use of the term for him entire game) and how while even voting you early stage he downplayed you as possible VI using the fact that I defended you as reason to move his vote.
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Post Post #592 (isolation #63) » Tue Apr 02, 2013 6:25 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 590, qwints wrote:My role claim shouldn't change that read enough to make her vote desperado like she did, i.e., it's an obvious bus.


Image

Yeah....

Only way you are scum is if there are only two scum (massclaim is good). If there are two scum this is not lylo. Therefore if Desp is town and you are scum - you get lynched tomorrow. I dont think you fakeclaim like that as scum trying to get Desp lynched who may have been lynchable regardless.

Guilty result governs here. There cant be a three player scumteam with you as scum for balance reasons.
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Post Post #595 (isolation #64) » Tue Apr 02, 2013 7:00 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 593, qwints wrote:1) Did you/do really have a town read on Desparado? If so, why?
2) Why have HD claim last?
3) Why wasn't Desparado's VT claim enough to stop the mass claim? (HINT: of the remaining 3 unclaimed players besides me, you had 1 as scum and 2 as Vanilla)


Apart from your second point being not really a strawman but an attempt to discredit me as "information role" and "acting really confident" are hard to discern

1) Never have had a strong town read on him. Didnt get it early, eventually brought it up as a gut read when it continued to bug me. KBW flipping town made me backburner it a bit though, especially given his reaction to getting called scum with KBW that felt like scum who was afraid of being tied to scum (which is wrong if KBW isnt scum)
2) To not have YOLO claim last but probably claim near the end. Also because he is independantly my strongest town read of Flay/YOLO/HD.
3) Because we were massclaiming and if it was only two scum we could have cleared off a couple of players.
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Post Post #602 (isolation #65) » Wed Apr 03, 2013 4:05 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 600, Mr. Flay wrote:*scratches head* So a dead townie "coaches" me, and copped-scum calling it out makes ME scum? Run that by me again?


Yep. Coaching is a term used for scum telling other scum what to do. Desp sounds like he is calling jeromus scum for coaching you, and I dont really think when we see thats somethig Desp doesnt normally talk about he doesnt come up with it without one of you being scum. Here I think he is scum with you so called jeromus on something that is scummy because he knows that you are scum so it actually becomes an alignment tell.
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Post Post #605 (isolation #66) » Wed Apr 03, 2013 6:36 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 604, qwints wrote:Her play doesn't make sense as town. It does make sense as scum scrambling to account for the fact that her go-to mislynch me had something up their sleeve. I honestly believe no townie could reasonably believe desp was town and I was scum after yesterday's hammer, but she acted like she did even though it was the only plausible scenario that could lose the game for town today.


Its not soft push, it was blatant push as your response to me asking for massclaim was really bad. If you have a guilty in what you think is lylo you claim it. Plus given that you never were a town read for me at any point in the game really, not sure what your point is there.

Anyway, just because you are acting like you have role related information does nothing to make you obviously town or anything like that. First its not always possible to tell saying you have information apart from "im sure". Just because a player reads like they might have role information doesnt mean you just blindly buy it, especially at lylo, double especially when they are claiming it on a player who logically should never have been targeted. Even now "no way anypony could believe he was town" and you TARGET him?? I would actually not at all be shocked if you are still scum because your own logic just says you shouldnt have targeted him.

Basically all you are saying is "I was obv-town and Desp was obv-scum" when really, you were not at all. You actually targeting him proves that. Also the whole "go to mislynch" thing is a joke. If I pegged you as a good cop bet as TOWN you could bet I would have done that as scum looking for more PRs, I tend to be pretty good at tracking them down by behavior alone, when they are breadcrumbing or anything its easier. Ask HD on that one, was scum in a game with him recently and I called the BG night one and figured the tracker within the first couple posts of D3 when they started talking about my partner. Either way as scum my "go to mislynch" would have been Flay/YOLO, I had called both scum together and was very free to attack either of them. Never even really mentioned you up untill that point, I looked good with a Desp-scum flip being basically the only one who called him scum before the hammer, why destroy a good thing try to defend him from role information there? Also for that matter why kill BB who was suspicious of you if you were my mislynch?

Second, as I have said Desp was a horrible target for an investigation. Yolo/Flay or something would have been better since neither were dying and both were more likely to be around in an endgame. You dont target the player who you think is most likely scum as cop. Or any info role really. Its fundamentally bad play. A couple of cop play 101 failings still make me only at about 80% you are actually a cop because you should know this stuff.

Third... im not sure what your point is. It seems like you are complaining that you werent obviously town really more than anything else. Given that its obvious that I figured you for PR, why do I play how I did as scum there? Only way you would ever have been lynchable is another strong PR claims, which as scum would be obvious doesnt exist - since I was coming out the gate swinging I would have had all partners compared for massclaim as well. So where is my advatage as scum for doing that? Even if im going to push you are most likely in a scum duo only, Desp is still the correct lynch there so that doesnt work. There is no win playing like that as scum. None. So why even do it?
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Post Post #608 (isolation #67) » Thu Apr 04, 2013 3:03 am

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 607, qwints wrote:RBD, do you think I was wrong about Despardo being obv-scum w/o an investigation or do you think I was wrong to investigate him? It can't be both.


From
your
perspective he was obv-scum and you investigated him (or he wasnt and your case evaporates instantly) so its a bad target.
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Post Post #613 (isolation #68) » Thu Apr 04, 2013 2:00 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 610, qwints wrote:I also don't get why you would have risked losing the game with your Despardo vote if you thought it was likely that I was scum and Desp was town. Why were you so sure that if I was scum there were only 2 scum?


Becuase I was really confident that the entire setup was all VT + Elyse with two scum.

@Flay - Its not as much dealing with absolutes than it is when play is poor from a decent player, goes against theory and is convient, its something to pay close attention to. Picking a scummy target is essentially always bad play as a cop outside of being in something almost gamebreaking, so I will call him out on it.

Also yes, that comment attacking jeromus for "coaching" you paired with how he quickly just believed my reason for calling you town and passed you off as VI, you are a decent pick for scum. YOLO is where I keep getting torn because of his "I wasnt prodded" statement (which is also why he was in part VT) as that pairs up with a player who mod missed going inactive or knew was active the entire time. Then again you are also scum because HD-YOLO pairing? Really?
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Post Post #616 (isolation #69) » Thu Apr 04, 2013 2:31 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 614, qwints wrote:Why?


I am vanilla, I was reading YOLO as vanilla, reading HD as vanilla, reading Desp as vanila. So all that left was you, BB and Flay. 12P is odd to start but 11P is a classic two scum setup so thats what I expected to continue with some slight modification (if any really) to the scumteam. A play on mountainous given the minimalistic way the game was unfolding power wise.

And do you think I was wrong to think Desparado was scum?


No. To think "how can anypony ever have him as town" was quite wrong which is what you are posting when you YOURSELF copped him meaning you were not sure he was scum or it would be a wasted investigation.

Also my current Desp read is based mainly on the investigation. Not sure where I would have gone without it, but I quickly went to qwints-scum given his response to me asking for a massclaim and instead just trying to power a lynch through.
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Post Post #621 (isolation #70) » Thu Apr 04, 2013 4:04 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 620, qwints wrote:RBD, at what point did you start thinking I was a cop?


It was obvious you had something role related pretty quickly into today. As I already said though there were only three possible shots at PRs last night without even hunting PRs and your "I know you arent a cop" comment to BB looking back at it is obvious. You just pay more attention to those things when you are scum, VT stuff I always look for but PRs are more of that "oh thats why they were reading funny" moments for me as town usually.
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Post Post #635 (isolation #71) » Sun Apr 07, 2013 6:00 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

yay good timing

Vote Flay


Because its not HD and YOLO.
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Post Post #649 (isolation #72) » Mon Apr 08, 2013 1:16 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 648, Elyse wrote:Alright, so basically, RBD is experienced. He is not dumb enough to put a vote on someone right as the day starts, when there's two scum left and only three to lynch.


You do realize that there is no way YOLO and HD are scum together, so that means there is zero way that Flay is town. Its really that simple, I will lose the game for us tomorrow if its YOLO-HD even if we lynch whichever is scum today.

The enterance of HD and following reaction from YOLO means that they really have no chance of both being scum. I really dont need to figure out which is scum with him today.

Really NOT just bussing Desp should alone be enough to make me town. As scum, I would know for sure that any PRs on N2 are in BB/Flay/qwints and there would be at least one PR. Even if I went for a BB kill, I would still know at least one of Flay/qwints is a PR - and the play from qwints is obviously that of a PR (or faking role info). So then that would have ment as scum instead of following groundwork for a bus thanks to making Desp crack, I would have ignored results where I easily could have just gotten him lynched, killed qwints and then pretty easily gotten somepony lynched off that.

As you said, im not dumb. There is no way im not going to be voting Flay outside of essentially a scumclaim from YOLO/HD. Only way Flay is town is if there are two scum or if one of YOLO-HD is a traitor. Why go through the motions if I know who im going to be voting? That just wastes all of our time.
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Post Post #651 (isolation #73) » Mon Apr 08, 2013 1:52 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 650, Elyse wrote:Reading through HD's ISO, it looks like he's your partner, RBD. He had you and Desperado as town the entire time. When I was picking who to use my shot on, he only said YOLO and jeromus.

Flay was also a top scumread of his.


You arent really saying anything about why im scum though apart from voting already, which I already explained. It should be obvious I know what im talking about when it comes to PRs and VTs, thats what I do in these games. Everpony is good at something and one of the things im best at is quickly hunting down who is a PR and who is not. Given how everypony played, I would have known instantly as scum that qwints had role info on Desp so there is no way I would have tried to antagonize him when it would have been an easy bus.

Also im not sure how you are calling HD scum with me when I was pushing hard for a lynch of Bomb and pretty much have been calling HD scum untill late yesterday. Also the fact that apparently if calling somepony town makes them a scumbuddy, im town because I was basically the ONLY one calling Desp scum.

Or you can add in the fact that if I was scum BY (VT and lynchable) wouldnt have died (BB/qwints/Flay PR pool again). And that you would have since you were saying "the power players are scum", last PR would probably be investigative so taking that risk is fine if you arent sure. And I would have lynched Desp into the ground since I had been calling him scum and qwints fit the setup perfectly.

So lets here a reason then, or if you are going to stick to "the vote" explain why I would vote HD or YOLO when there apparently are three scum and they arent scum together.
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Post Post #654 (isolation #74) » Mon Apr 08, 2013 4:59 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 653, Mr. Flay wrote:
I can't decide which of you is town and which is scum
, but right now I'm leaning HDscum for that second vote. RBD has just been firing into the crowd all game, which strikes me as overconfidence.


Image

So....

What?

So its HD-YOLO (or are you pushing one scum). Thats what you have for us? Really?

Also I will get some case up, time should be pretty plentiful starting Thursday. For now though I want to dictate what happens and establish a baseline of what needs to get done.
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Post Post #656 (isolation #75) » Mon Apr 08, 2013 6:07 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 655, Mr. Flay wrote:You're certainly bright enough to be scum playing this way, but I haven't read any of your meta.


Meh. My scum game is actually really different if you know what to look for. There are a couple of points though over last couple days where its "why would I do that" as scum. Mostly the whole looking for the last PR thing but if its going to take the game finishing to prove that im one of the better VT hunters around thats what its going to take if anypony wont meta that.

Only clear for me is Elyse, since she could have hammered and didn't.


Or it could be them being the cop cleared day vig. That too.
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Post Post #663 (isolation #76) » Wed Apr 10, 2013 4:14 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 662, Elyse wrote:RBD, I can't trust your self WIFOM. I still think you're scum.


As wierd as it sounds - im not stupid scum which should be a top reason im town here. BY kill was
bad
and looks like a PR shot which I would never have taken. Heck I have intentionally ignored PRs in the past as scum because they were not the biggest threat in the game.

Really give me something though, then look at how Flay and YOLO are playing. As far as I can tell your vote on me is because I am confident enough that HD and YOLO arent scum together that I am voting already.

Flay despite me voting him seems to be floating interest in HD instead of voting back. YOLO is taking absolutely zero stances about anything.

Also fun fact - if there are actually only two scum in the game its probably HD or YOLO. Flay would be town there. From a review standpoint though, something is still very off since even setup as stands assuming three goons I would think as somewhat scum sided - still almost would expect a traitor instead or two scum with daytalk (or gunsmith, etc) or something to that extent. Funniest part is I
really
feel like there is just one scum left. If it wasnt for HD-YOLO making so little sense, I would be voting YOLO here I think.

Go look at past scum games, im anything but derpy. Ive lost two games, one was due to listening to my partner against all my instincts followed by them (essentially) playing right into a forced loss and the other was a nightless game where town got a really lucky play in and there was to shot from there.

Just look at my last game, has me scum and HD town in it. Heck just look at the scum QT. I figured out the setup pretty fast, picked out a PR by the end of the first day, caught the breadcrumbing role fast while keeping heat away from my partner and myself easily. I know its wierd to hear but im not dumb scum, never would have let the BY NK happen as scum. Ever.

If you dont like the WIFOM, give me something to defend against. If you want to call me scum for a fast vote - explain to me how HD and YOLO are scum together despite how HD entered the game and drew the YOLO reaction as he did.

Or for that matter how you are kinda using the HD-Flay interactions of HD not wanting Flay vigged as reason as to why im scum with HD (or whatever you were going for there).

Lets make this very easy, I know Elyse is going to call me scum or something for it but I will force things as clear as possible since even if this doesnt work we are going to lose anyways.

@YOLO
- Vote for me. In your next post.
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Post Post #671 (isolation #77) » Thu Apr 11, 2013 2:11 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 667, Mr. Flay wrote:The only one that really bothers me is the Bub kill after Elyse names her paranoia-scum.


How is
THIS
the part that bugs you?

That was not the most unpredictable kill by a long shot for half smart scum.

Anyways. Maybe this will make YOLO vote me.

Vote YOLO


I wasnt kidding about wanting him to vote me. Right now.

Basically this is where im at:

First im going to assume that even if there is a traitor that HD and YOLO are not both scum. If they are we probably have lost this already and its simply a matter of time.

From there that leaves two scenarios.

The first is one scum left and they probably had daytalk or some investigative role. If there is one scum left, Flay is probably town given that more than not I think he is scum by who I cant see as scum. Process of Elim is a bitch but it can work wonders at times. If there is one scum im more or less split on which of HD-YOLO it is but think its more likely YOLO. The way he is really backing out of conflict when I think town would be pushing things here is a big one that is more of a "survive" mentality, while scum with Flay would probably be pushing towards me as that would be a win given Elyse is just locked in.

Now if there are two scum, its going to be Flay and somepony. Again I lean YOLO by a bit over HD so here I am again. Either way no matter what the situation is, im looking at YOLO as scum. The question is just if its WITH somepony or if its solo at this point. Again traitor is an option but im going to discount unless proven otherwise at this point in time.

Given all of that, its probably the better vote as YOLO today and not Flay, simply because if there is just one scum we actually can win with a YOLO lynch while im pretty sure the other way around it would send it to a F3 that while I like, im not as happy with.

So lets do this.
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Post Post #670 (isolation #78) » Thu Apr 11, 2013 2:11 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 667, Mr. Flay wrote:The only one that really bothers me is the Bub kill after Elyse names her paranoia-scum.


How is
THIS
the part that bugs you?

That was not the most unpredictable kill by a long shot for half smart scum.

Anyways. Maybe this will make YOLO vote me.

Vote YOLO


I wasnt kidding about wanting him to vote me. Right now.

Basically this is where im at:

First im going to assume that even if there is a traitor that HD and YOLO are not both scum. If they are we probably have lost this already and its simply a matter of time.

From there that leaves two scenarios.

The first is one scum left and they probably had daytalk or some investigative role. If there is one scum left, Flay is probably town given that more than not I think he is scum by who I cant see as scum. Process of Elim is a bitch but it can work wonders at times. If there is one scum im more or less split on which of HD-YOLO it is but think its more likely YOLO. The way he is really backing out of conflict when I think town would be pushing things here is a big one that is more of a "survive" mentality, while scum with Flay would probably be pushing towards me as that would be a win given Elyse is just locked in.

Now if there are two scum, its going to be Flay and somepony. Again I lean YOLO by a bit over HD so here I am again. Either way no matter what the situation is, im looking at YOLO as scum. The question is just if its WITH somepony or if its solo at this point. Again traitor is an option but im going to discount unless proven otherwise at this point in time.

Given all of that, its probably the better vote as YOLO today and not Flay, simply because if there is just one scum we actually can win with a YOLO lynch while im pretty sure the other way around it would send it to a F3 that while I like, im not as happy with.

So lets do this.
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Post Post #669 (isolation #79) » Thu Apr 11, 2013 2:11 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 667, Mr. Flay wrote:The only one that really bothers me is the Bub kill after Elyse names her paranoia-scum.


How is
THIS
the part that bugs you?

That was not the most unpredictable kill by a long shot for half smart scum.

Anyways. Maybe this will make YOLO vote me.

Vote YOLO


I wasnt kidding about wanting him to vote me. Right now.

Basically this is where im at:

First im going to assume that even if there is a traitor that HD and YOLO are not both scum. If they are we probably have lost this already and its simply a matter of time.

From there that leaves two scenarios.

The first is one scum left and they probably had daytalk or some investigative role. If there is one scum left, Flay is probably town given that more than not I think he is scum by who I cant see as scum. Process of Elim is a bitch but it can work wonders at times. If there is one scum im more or less split on which of HD-YOLO it is but think its more likely YOLO. The way he is really backing out of conflict when I think town would be pushing things here is a big one that is more of a "survive" mentality, while scum with Flay would probably be pushing towards me as that would be a win given Elyse is just locked in.

Now if there are two scum, its going to be Flay and somepony. Again I lean YOLO by a bit over HD so here I am again. Either way no matter what the situation is, im looking at YOLO as scum. The question is just if its WITH somepony or if its solo at this point. Again traitor is an option but im going to discount unless proven otherwise at this point in time.

Given all of that, its probably the better vote as YOLO today and not Flay, simply because if there is just one scum we actually can win with a YOLO lynch while im pretty sure the other way around it would send it to a F3 that while I like, im not as happy with.

So lets do this.
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Post Post #673 (isolation #80) » Thu Apr 11, 2013 2:51 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 672, Elyse wrote:Desperado always fake hypothesized a three man scum team. If you're town and you're asking people to vote you, we're probably going to lose.


Well im basically betting against a HD-Flay team with this move. Realistically even if its that and we lynch Flay today I probably would vote YOLO tomorrow.

And RBD, I know you're not stupid, but those kills aren't as dumb as you're making them out to be. They're mostly WTF kills, which make NK analysis harder.


There is a time and place for WTF kills but killing a probably VT who is lynchable N1 just makes no sense. Usually WTF kills are only good for 'zero PR reads, no clear kill' situations. Playing NK analysis is just too hard to predict.
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Post Post #688 (isolation #81) » Fri Apr 12, 2013 1:06 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

So guess who was town and apparently 100% right about setup only having two scum?

*this pony*

Its YOLO. Almost for sure.

Prob not Flay because I was only voting him because he had to be scum if two scum.

BY kill was bad, ment scum is detached and/or weak. HD fits first part, YOLO second part. Its far more likely YOLO, not for sure but far more likely. Plus really... still.. im not bad enough scum to kill somepony who has essentially claimed VT the first night. Im good scum not because im some awesome manipulator but because im an awesome optimizer, BY kill only would have been better than a couple.

So something like 70% YOLO 30% HD. With two scum its not Flay.
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Post Post #695 (isolation #82) » Fri Apr 12, 2013 7:10 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

Thats balanced?

Yeah right. It was balanced moving a goon to VT. I mean really... no way that was balanced.

KBW for +- scum MVP?

Mod stuff was fine, but as a MN reviewer myself there is no way I would have cleared this one. Make it Goon-Framer and its still about even here (slight town lean), even tri-goon works but the addition of a Framer creates massive counter swing to scum. Basically framer target gets hit by cop and scum auto-wins it with this lineup so about 5-10% of iterations become crushing scum victory.

Framers are bad roles in general though in normals since it can create situations where players are more or less being lied to which is why they are constantly under discussion of being banned from normals. Didnt come into play but im still not sure how this is balanced. If three scum were mandatory goon-goon-traitor was very balanced here.

Elyse didnt play endgame right though. You dont put all your cards down as confirmed town or ever vote first as confirmed town in lylo. When the entire case was "I voted first" when it was based entirely on what must be true, its annoying because im being voted for correct play. Force the solutions to be one of two and then its just easier to aruge things. She just rushed the situation without actually trying to provide reasoning, or listening to me saying I had little to no time until right about now.

No issues with modding - although its a MASSIVE pet peeve of mine in normals/opens to not put up flips when thread is locked, you arent here to write flavor, you are here to mod. It just bugs me, I read 0% of any of the flavor and just want to see a flip on time instead of having to wait for one. In a bit of a minorty there but its just a courtisy thing to the players in non-flavored games, should take you about a minute to get a flip together. If you want flavor and are pressed for time do it later.
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Post Post #696 (isolation #83) » Fri Apr 12, 2013 7:29 pm

Post by Rainbowdash »

Basically for a Day Vig you need to make the assumption that they do the most pro-town thing and shoot day one. If you want to add that they are guarenteed to not hit the cop D1, you are looking at one of the following setups:

8:3 with one confirmed town (MASSIVE scum sided, town will probably lose this without a D3 with the cop and both results alive)
9:2 with one confirmed town (slightly town sided given the vig presence, 9:2 with only cop is a fairly dead heat)

Problem is the 8:3 will be what happens 70% of the time. Given that 70% of the runs should be about 2/3 scum win, this is not balanced. At all, and thats assuming all scum are goons. Add in the framer and you are taking about 15% of hitting scum D1 with vig to critical town loss due to cop targeting framed player. If you are going to say they shoot without a claim, you are increaseing the large scum sided scenario to 73% with a 9% essentially scum auto-win.

Its simply not balanced. I would be floored if scum won less than 60% of this in a long run and would probably put my money on closer to 2/3 or even slightly higher. Town needs a cop D3 with two results or they are dead to rights.

Didnt help having KBW as town though.
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Post Post #701 (isolation #84) » Sat Apr 13, 2013 5:50 am

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 697, 10506670 wrote:I will admit now that the setup is fairly imbalanced. My original setup had an additional town role (first a doctor, then a jailkeeper) but during the review this was scrapped for additional townies (the setup was originally for 11-p).


Something like limited (2 max?) shot doc worked fine to balance this, that or bringing it to 14P and no scum PRs (even though it creates a large setup).

Good basic rule is town should have 2 PRs + 1.5-2 more for every scum PR.

Does locking the thread after I post the flavor solve your problem, Rainbow?


That one is more of a "me" thing then anything else and this wasnt bad, but ive seen mods wait 12 hours almost every scene for opens/normals because they are writing flavor. When I run themes I actually start writing the scene when it looks like game is progressing to a lynch so its basically done when one occurs.

Really just a "X - Role - Died" instantly and then if you want flavor adding it later is best in my book because few/if any players in the normal/open groups actually joined a game for flavor. Some like me joined it specifically due to lack of flavor.

@Desp - Okay. First this game wasnt balanced. Im part of that group and would never have signed off on it being balanced because its quite simply not. Second, lynching bad players who are remotely scummy is a good thing. As callous as it sounds, it tends to make them realize they need to get better or just stop playing. Its worked in the past both ways (klick/kondi is a perfect example of learning how to get better). I would fully be willing to policy lynch KBW to start in any other games though, almost five years into playing and there are few players I think skill wise are near him that ive ever seen.
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Post Post #704 (isolation #85) » Sat Apr 13, 2013 6:14 am

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 702, Desperado wrote:Then maybe you should shape up your fellow reviewers, because they obviously don't agree with your take here or we wouldn't have played the game, right?


We obviously dont agree on everything and there are some setups that get through that dont quite work from time to time. This one just feels much more slanted one way than the other, kinda feel like there was some discussion regarding "worst case for scum" and that made it too unbalanced. Limited doc or BG would have been perfect here.

@Elyse - Thing I was most annoyed about was that I never got a chance to start posting even though I said that I wouldnt have much time until at least Thursday. Really as confirmed town though holding your vote is usually better because my basic plan was to basically be able to force it to either me/HD or YOLO/Flay where I knew what the solution was and could make the right arguements.
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Post Post #706 (isolation #86) » Sat Apr 13, 2013 6:32 am

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 705, Desperado wrote:Yeah, I see where you're coming from. But I would also argue that what actually happened ended up being near best-case scenario for scum (only thing better is a qwints kill n2 over Bub--that'd have been autowin) and that's kind of biasing your opinion. But a limited shot Doc absolutely would have made sense, I agree.


I would go with slightly better than average. Things scum had that went well were

-Elyse didnt shoot D1 (one shot day vig ALWAYS shoots day one)
-Cop hit Elyse (basically wasted N1, spawns from first thing)
-Cop targeted you (I still say bad choice)

Just with a dayvig you need to for balance assume an expected outcome of D1 town shot which essentially makes this setup

Cop, Innocent Child, 6x VT vs 2x Goon, Framer, which is 11P which should NEVER have three scum outside of something beyond stacked for town.
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Post Post #710 (isolation #87) » Sun Apr 14, 2013 9:19 am

Post by Rainbowdash »

In post 707, Mr. Flay wrote:And yet, if Elyse had held her shot until the Cop claim and shot Desperado, we'd have been in a WORLD of pain. It's a swingy setup but by no means unwinnable for Town.


For that to ever occur though there would need to be poor town play. Basically both our PRs played suboptimally; Elyse not vigging D1 caused qwints to waste his N1 action, and I still fully say investiationg Desp was a very bad move for qwints.


We left you alive specifically because you were more focused on balance/theory than scumhunting (and yes, to give the Experienced Scum some cover... it just happened to be me, not you). Your rushvote in LyLo (again, based on theory that really wasn't that good/obvious) is what made it easy for me to build a case. Holding your vote, I'd have had much less to work with.


Well if you work with balance you can really break down these types of games and have votecounts/etc work in your favor. From working with design enough ive figured that paying attention to them can give you that leg up most of the time because you know more of the picture. Second, I still dont think there was anything wrong with voting early. Im not going to waste a week trying to act like im reaching a conclusion im already at, if I was
SCUM
I absolutely would have not voted fast there not only to see if I could get town to lay a bad vote but aslo because its "pro-town" to do. One of those things that when its an obvious solution players still see as not super town because "its wrong" and not looked at past that, much like early massclaim (also good).

Yup, but not without reason. AS RBD says the setup doesn't look very balanced, so I was worried Elyse was actually a multishot Vig or a DaySK or something weird. Thus I didn't want to give her reason to off me explicitly. I was going to hammer when I got home and 'read the thread' one more time.


None of that really should have been something to scare you off since anything would have endgamed there. Only thing realistically to be scared of would have been me being vengeful or something. Im still kinda wondering which group cleared this for balance since without the day vig hitting scum I dont think town wins. Really +2 VT and this is probably a decent setup, or with two scum and daytalk. The way it is scum should just crush, whenyou have scum afraid to hammer because town is underpowered something is very wrong.
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