Open 473: Jungle Republic GAME OVER

[4nxi3ty]

I would like to smoke out Rob's remaining buddy before a lynch happens

[Tajun]

Any reason we should doubt his claim (ie suspect him as the wolf)? Otherwise, I'm happy to let him live, because:
1) If we lynch the wolf, we lynch him tomorrow.
2) If we lynch town, he dies tonight (wolf has no choice but to kill him) giving us another chance to take the maf.
3) If we lynch the other maf, he either dies or lives tonight, kind of irrelevant, then we still have to get the wolf tomorrow (can lynch him in 3 player lylo).

Actually, come to think of it, that could be his plan, to claim maf as a wolf, hoping that we get into scenario 3 and have to try to lynch the wolf tomorrow (which is, ironically, him). Actually, I think that is the most likely scenario, I don't really see the benefit to doing this as maf, but as a wolf he has bought himself a chance at the win if we let him live. Thoughts?

Pedit: I see what you mean, but the fact that he turned it on so strongly there feels tremendously unnatural to me. Especially immediately after the death of the seer, it really makes me uncomfortable.

Pedit2: Agreed.

[ProHawk]

Second Maf is between Tajun and Majiffy. Cause one of the mafiaosos would have countered Rob's claim if he was lying to sure up the Wolf-kill.

Tajun just flopped on Rob all in one lovely post.

[Tajun]

Cause one of the mafiaosos would have countered Rob's claim if he was lying to sure up the Wolf-kill.

Why?

[ProHawk]

Don't they have to kill the wolf to win?

[Tajun]

Nope.

[ProHawk]

Nope, guess not. Just majority. I would see it as tactically sound as then they wouldn't have to worry about the night-kill, and they would have an easier chance to hide out to win in LYLO.

[Rob14]

Any reason we should doubt his claim (ie suspect him as the wolf)? Otherwise, I'm happy to let him live, because:
1) If we lynch the wolf, we lynch him tomorrow.
2) If we lynch town, he dies tonight (wolf has no choice but to kill him) giving us another chance to take the maf.
3) If we lynch the other maf, he either dies or lives tonight, kind of irrelevant, then we still have to get the wolf tomorrow (can lynch him in 3 player lylo).

Actually, come to think of it, that could be his plan, to claim maf as a wolf, hoping that we get into scenario 3 and have to try to lynch the wolf tomorrow (which is, ironically, him). Actually, I think that is the most likely scenario, I don't really see the benefit to doing this as maf, but as a wolf he has bought himself a chance at the win if we let him live. Thoughts?

In Scenario 3, you kill me in 3p LyLo, making this strategy not viable for a werewolf.

[Tajun]

That would be pretty dumb, they would go from a decent chance of winning in either case to giving the town a 3-1 split with two lynches. I'd just let it slide.

On another note, if Hawk was maf I'm guessing he would have known their wincon, so unless he is playing a deep deep game he is likely not. Could still be a wolf I guess.

Pedit: Got a response hey? Not seeing what you mean; in a four player game with you (if you are a wolf) you stand a better chance than anyone if we think you are maf, because we can't lynch you. You get two chances to kill the maf (one lynch, one kill) ftw.

[ProHawk]

Pretty dumb, kinda like claiming Mafia to be auto-lynched in the late-game to make your team get to 1?

[Rob14]

Pretty dumb, kinda like claiming Mafia to be auto-lynched in the late-game to make your team get to 1?

I'll justify my actions in the post-game. What's done is done. Focus on the werewolf.

[Tajun]

Pretty dumb, kinda like claiming Mafia to be auto-lynched in the late-game to make your team get to 1?

Pretty much, yeah.

[Majiffy]

HD is the likely wolf.

[Human Destroyer]

I'm not a wolf.

uct/Rob/ProHawk mafia team, that wasn't that hard

If you really need to see why ProHawk is the last maf, look at all of uct's empty attacks on him in his ISO and you'll see it.

And yes, mafia can fuck up their own win condition, so that isn't a "not maf-slip"

That completely fucks up my wolf reads though, so I'll have to go through that again. Fun times.

[Human Destroyer]

Votecounts with pretty colors! These include Rob's mafia claim, doesn't include self so others can use it too if they want.

Spoiler: Colored Votecounts

First Votecount

4nxi3ty: (1) dividizzle
Human Destroyer: (1)

Rob13

Josh Lyman: (1)

Whiskers

Thor665

: (2) Human Destroyer,

Sky

Whiskers

: (2)

Thor665

, ProHawk

Not placing a Vote: 4nxi3ty,

Alduskkel

,

auspicious

, Tajun,

uctriton00

Second Votecount

4nxi3ty: (1) dividizzle

Alduskkel

: (1)

Rob13

Human Destroyer: (0)
Josh Lyman: (1)

Alduskkel

ProHawk: (2)

Whiskers

, 4nxi3ty

Thor665

: (2) Human Destroyer,

Sky

Whiskers

: (3)

Thor665

, ProHawk, Tajun

Not placing a Vote:

auspicious

,

uctriton00

12 alive equals 7 to lynch, 6 to no-lynch

Deadline for Day One: (expired on 2013-02-03 22:50:36)

Third Votecount

4nxi3ty: (2) dividizzle, Tajun

Alduskkel

: (3)

Rob13

,

uctriton00

, ProHawk
ProHawk: (4) 4nxi3ty,

Alduskkel

,

Sky

,

Whiskers

Whiskers

: (2)

Thor665

, Human Destroyer

Not placing a Vote:

auspicious

12 alive equals 7 to lynch, 6 to no-lynch

Deadline for Day One: (expired on 2013-02-03 22:50:36)

Fourth Votecount

Alduskkel

: (2)

uctriton00

, ProHawk
Human Destroyer: (2)

auspicious

,

Whiskers

ProHawk: (4)

Alduskkel

,

Sky

, Majiffy,

Rob13

Sky

: (1) 4nxi3ty

Whiskers

: (3)

Thor665

, Human Destroyer, Tajun

Not placing a Vote:

12 alive equals 7 to lynch, 6 to no-lynch

Deadline for Day One: (expired on 2013-02-03 22:50:36)

Fifth Votecount

Alduskkel

: (3)

uctriton00

, Human Destroyer,

auspicious

Human Destroyer: (1) ProHawk
ProHawk: (5)

Alduskkel

,

Sky

, Majiffy,

Rob13

,

Whiskers

Sky

: (1) 4nxi3ty

Whiskers

: (2)

Thor665

, Tajun

Not placing a Vote:

12 alive equals 7 to lynch, 6 to no-lynch

Deadline for Day One: (expired on 2013-02-03 22:50:36)

Sixth Votecount

Alduskkel

: (4)

uctriton00

, Human Destroyer,

auspicious

,

Thor665

Human Destroyer: (2) ProHawk,

Whiskers

ProHawk: (4)

Alduskkel

,

Sky

, Majiffy,

Rob13

Sky

: (1) 4nxi3ty

Whiskers

: (1) Tajun

Not placing a Vote:

12 alive equals 7 to lynch, 6 to no-lynch

Deadline for Day One: (expired on 2013-02-03 22:50:36)

Seventh Votecount

Alduskkel

: (4)

uctriton00

, Human Destroyer,

auspicious

,

Thor665

Human Destroyer: (3) ProHawk,

Whiskers

, Tajun
ProHawk: (3)

Alduskkel

,

Sky

,

Rob13

Sky

: (1) 4nxi3ty

Thor665

: (1) Majiffy

Not placing a Vote:

12 alive equals 7 to lynch, 6 to no-lynch

Deadline for Day One: (expired on 2013-02-03 22:50:36)

Eighth Votecount

Alduskkel

: (1)

Thor665

Human Destroyer: (4) ProHawk,

Whiskers

, Tajun,

auspicious

ProHawk: (2)

Alduskkel

,

Sky

Sky

: (2) 4nxi3ty,

uctriton00

Thor665

: (3) Majiffy,

Rob13

, Human Destroyer

Not placing a Vote:

12 alive equals 7 to lynch, 6 to no-lynch

Deadline for Day One: (expired on 2013-02-03 22:50:36)

Ninth Votecount

Alduskkel

: (1)

Thor665

Human Destroyer: (5) ProHawk,

Whiskers

, Tajun,

auspicious

,

Rob13

ProHawk: (2)

Alduskkel

,

Sky

Sky

: (1) 4nxi3ty

Thor665

: (2) Majiffy, Human Destroyer

Not placing a Vote:

uctriton00

12 alive equals 7 to lynch

Deadline for Day One: (expired on 2013-02-03 22:50:36)

Since it seems to be causing so many problems, I've removed the "6 to no-lynch" from the votecount. But it still applies, if you should wish to no-lynch.

Tenth Votecount

Alduskkel

: (1) Human Destroyer
Human Destroyer: (6) ProHawk,

Whiskers

, Tajun,

auspicious

,

Rob13

, Majiffy
ProHawk: (2)

Alduskkel

,

Sky

Sky

: (1) 4nxi3ty

Whiskers

: (1)

Thor665

Not placing a Vote:

uctriton00

12 alive equals 7 to lynch

Deadline for Day One: (expired on 2013-02-03 22:50:36)

Rob13

is V/LA till Monday.

Eleventh Votecount

Alduskkel

: (4) Human Destroyer, ProHawk, Tajun,

uctriton00

Human Destroyer: (1)

Whiskers

ProHawk: (3)

Alduskkel

,

Sky

,

Rob13

Sky

: (3) 4nxi3ty, Majiffy,

auspicious

Whiskers

: (1)

Thor665

Not placing a Vote:

12 alive equals 7 to lynch

Deadline for Day One: (expired on 2013-02-03 22:50:36)

uctriton00

is V/LA till Wednesday.

Twelfth Votecount

L-1

Alduskkel

: (6) Human Destroyer, ProHawk, Tajun,

uctriton00

, Majiffy,

auspicious

Human Destroyer: (1)

Whiskers

ProHawk: (3)

Alduskkel

,

Sky

,

Rob13

Sky

: (2)

Thor665

, 4nxi3ty

Not placing a Vote:

12 alive equals 7 to lynch

Deadline for Day One: (expired on 2013-02-03 22:50:36)

Sorry for the lack of votecounts. I seem to have wandered off and apparently got lost. Slightly. Won't happen again.

Thirteenth Votecount

Alduskkel

: (7) ProHawk, Tajun,

uctriton00

, Majiffy,

auspicious

,

Sky

, 4nxi3ty
ProHawk: (4)

Alduskkel

,

Rob13

, Human Destroyer,

Whiskers

Sky

: (1)

Thor665

Not placing a Vote:

12 alive equals 7 to lynch

Deadline for Day One: (expired on 2013-02-03 22:50:36)

First Votecount (Day Two)

ProHawk: (1) Human Destroyer

Thor665

: (2) ProHawk, Tajun

Whiskers

: (4) 4nxi3ty,

auspicious

,

Rob13

, Majiffy

Not Voting:

Sky

,

Thor665

,

Whiskers

(expired on 2013-02-28 04:19:34)

10 alive, 6 for lynch

Second Votecount (Day Two)

ProHawk: (1) Human Destroyer

Sky

: (1)

Thor665

Thor665

: (3) ProHawk, Tajun,

Sky

Whiskers

: (4) 4nxi3ty,

auspicious

,

Rob13

, Majiffy

Not Voting:

Whiskers

(expired on 2013-02-28 04:19:34)

10 alive, 6 for lynch

Snowstorm Alert (possible V/LA): Human Destroyer,

Rob13

Ignoring Majiffy's request in post 998.

Third Votecount (Day Two)

ProHawk: (1) Human Destroyer

Sky

: (1)

Thor665

Thor665

: (3) ProHawk, Tajun,

Sky

Whiskers

: (4) 4nxi3ty,

auspicious

,

Rob13

, Majiffy

Not Voting:

Whiskers

(expired on 2013-02-28 04:19:34)

10 alive, 6 for lynch

V/LA: 4nxi3ty until Saturday

Fourth Votecount (Day Two)

Sky

: (3)

Thor665

, Tajun, Human Destroyer

Thor665

: (2) ProHawk,

Sky

Whiskers

: (4) 4nxi3ty,

auspicious

,

Rob13

, Majiffy

Not Voting:

Whiskers

(expired on 2013-02-28 04:19:34)

10 alive, 6 for lynch

V/LA: 4nxi3ty until Saturday

My apologies to 4nxi3ty; I have removed the prod-asterisk.

Fifth Votecount (Day Two)

Sky

: (3)

Thor665

, Tajun, Human Destroyer

Thor665

: (1)

Sky

Whiskers

: (5) 4nxi3ty,

auspicious

,

Rob13

, Majiffy, ProHawk

Not Voting:

Whiskers

(expired on 2013-02-28 04:19:34)

10 alive, 6 for lynch

V/LA: 4nxi3ty until Saturday

Sixth Votecount (Day Two)

ProHawk: (1)

Thor665

Sky

: (2) Tajun, Human Destroyer

Thor665

: (1)

Sky

Whiskers

: (4)

auspicious

,

Rob13

, Majiffy, ProHawk

Not Voting:

Whiskers

, 4nxi3ty

(expired on 2013-02-28 04:19:34)

10 alive, 6 for lynch

V/LA: ProHawk until Monday (Please do announce your V/LAs in the thread)

Seventh Votecount (Day Two)

Human Destroyer: (3) Majiffy,

Thor665

, ProHawk

Sky

: (2) Tajun, 4nxi3ty

Thor665

: (1)

Sky

Whiskers

: (2)

Rob13

, Human Destroyer

Not Voting:

Whiskers

,

auspicious

(expired on 2013-02-28 04:19:34)

10 alive, 6 for lynch

V/LA: ...

Eighth Votecount (Day Two)

Human Destroyer: (3) Majiffy,

Thor665

, ProHawk

Sky

: (4) Tajun, 4nxi3ty, Human Destroyer,

auspicious

Thor665

: (1)

Sky

Whiskers

: (1)

Rob13

Not Voting:

Whiskers

(expired on 2013-02-28 04:19:34)

10 alive, 6 for lynch

V/LA: ...

Ninth Votecount (Day Two)

Human Destroyer: (2)

Thor665

, ProHawk
ProHawk: (1) Human Destroyer

Sky

: (4) Tajun, 4nxi3ty,

auspicious

, Majiffy

Thor665

: (1)

Sky

Whiskers

: (1)

Rob13

Not Voting:

Whiskers

(expired on 2013-02-28 04:19:34)

10 alive, 6 for lynch

V/LA: ...

Tenth Votecount (Day Two)

Human Destroyer: (2) ProHawk,

Whiskers

ProHawk: (1) Human Destroyer

Sky

: (4) Tajun, 4nxi3ty,

auspicious

, Majiffy

Thor665

: (2)

Sky

,

Rob13

Whiskers

: (1)

Thor665

Not Voting:

(expired on 2013-02-28 04:19:34)

10 alive, 6 for lynch

V/LA: ...

Eleventh Votecount (Day Two)

Human Destroyer: (1)

Whiskers

ProHawk: (1) Human Destroyer

Sky

: (6) Tajun, 4nxi3ty,

auspicious

, Majiffy, ProHawk,

Rob13

Thor665

: (1)

Sky

Whiskers

: (1)

Thor665

Not Voting:

(expired on 2013-02-28 04:19:34)

10 alive, 6 for lynch

First and Last Votecount of Day Three

Whiskers

: (5)

Thor665

, Human Destroyer,

Whiskers

,

Rob13

, Majiffy

Not Voting: 4nxi3ty, Prohawk, Tajun

(expired on 2013-03-23 13:43:50)

8 alive, 5 for lynch

[Human Destroyer]

People who have voted with Alduskkel:

4nx3ty
Majiffy
Myself

Which leaves Rob (claimed mafia), ProHawk, and Tajun. Um…ok.

UNVOTE: for now. I want to take a closer look at Tajun.

[Human Destroyer]

Note that the goal of looking at these interactions is to see if they make sense from a wolf-wolf perspective.

Spoiler: Tajun-Aldus Interactions

Alright, I think Whiskers has sufficiently overreacted to warrant a vote.

VOTE: Whiskers

A bit nervous about Alduskkel as well, the mod vote feels a bit forced, and not all that useful. Alduskkel, any thoughts on the minor wagon here?

Nothing unreasonable here I suppose. If you assume they're both wolves, this would be a bit of early distancing.

Page 2 has scum slips for Aldus and town slips for Thor.

Aldus voting mod that is ridiculous and are trying to do nothing and dismiss it as "having fun". Staying in RVS?
I don't have Whiskers and Prohawk as being aligned. I don't buy them as bussing each other. But Whisker's wagon though is built out of confirmation bias that everyone has for Thor so it looks like a damn reach.
Tajun is also scum slipping. Two "question-prods"? Yeah, no. Scum #2.

Vote: Aldus

Where are Thor's "townslips" as you call them? (Yeah, more questions. Deal with it.)

*snip*

The above is the scummiest thing I have seen so far. The Alduskkel wagon is meh at best, he isn't really being helpful, but he is also not trying to avoid attention, and he seems fairly forthright so far.

Note that he goes asks what Thor's townslips are and not what Aldus's scumslips are. Doesn't really explain his read on Alduskkel very much with a fairly murky "Well he seems forthright."

Still don't really see alduskkel, he is more of a meh read than Prohawk's def town, but I don't really see the reason for him to be the second major wagon. We might get lucky there, but we can do a lot better.

I do hope you folks are taking notes, this is the third time he's called the Aldus wagon a meh wagon.

These quotes strike me as off. Alduskkel comes in, acts in a way you deem scummy, then disappears, and he first slips back to nullish for his trouble then back to maybe a bit scummy? You don't seem too sure what you think of him, and, frankly, the scummiest thing I have seen from him is that he disappeared after pressure started to fade on him, leaving us to make cases on other targets and ignore him. You seem to be not troubled by this.

If he flips scum, I'm looking at you next.

I've done this as scum before; bus my buddy while lining up an "If X is scum, you're scum with him." situation. Note that he never follows through with this. Also calling the Aldus wagon meh #4.

Thor, could you explain your HD read? I don't see anything particularly town in his recent posting, picking a fight to avoid going to the gallows is pretty standard in my experience. And now he is going for a lurker lynch, essentially (aldus is a pretty easy target if he is trying to deflect). I still think he is flipping scum, unless someone can give me a damn good reason why not.

Calls Aldus an easy lynch despite never stating any sort of townread on him. (Note: This isn't as bad in multiball as it would be in a single scumteam game)

Alduskkel I can see as a worthy lynch maybe

, but sky I can't really. Gone back and forth on him a bit, but all told a weak town read there.

@auspicious: Can you explain your suspicion of sky? You keep saying he seems like scum, but I don't see any reasoning there.

VOTE: Alduskkel

His lurking is beyond bad right now. Let's see if votes wake him.

BOOM

So...he's called the wagon meh 4-5 times now...and now he just kinda jumps on calling it a lurkervote,

despite criticizing my own lurkervote in the exact same post.

As for the Aldus PL, I am fine with it. He is a bit scummy, and we have a fair deal of info from interactions with him over the day. In addition, the mafia have every reason to lurk like that and not participate usefully, there's a pretty good chance he'll flip maf (

although wolf I kinda doubt, unless that is just his style

).

This kinda comes out of nowhere. This is also unexplained. Note that he didn't start calling Aldus scummy until after it became a relatively popular wagon.

I still think he is a bit scummy, from his earlier posting. I prefer his more recent posting, although I find his recent disappearance odd, to say the least. Not a bad lynch, all told.
Alduskkel, what are your thoughts on Whiskers?

Asking Aldus about reads, possibly setting up a fake associative tell between Aldus/Whiskers? Actually, this whole conversation between them seems like exactly that.

Still think that Hawk is town, although his recent downturn of activity is a bit awkward. Whiskers' buddying argument is a stretch, I'm having a hard time seeing those three as being that obvious, and very rarely can that be seen day 1 in my experience. I think Aldus is our best option here, out of those two (three, if sky is considered).

BTW,

I'm pretty sure that that is L-1 on Hawk

, although someone should check that properly, I have to run.

Last interaction with Aldus, calling him the best lynch, despite never stating any sort of decent reason for joining the wagon.

If you want the tl;dr of it, there's early distancing, calling Aldus' wagon meh then suddenly joining it for the purposes of "lurker pressure" in the same post where he criticizes me for a lurker vote, setting up for the fake Aldus/Whiskers pairing, and calling Aldus the best lynch despite never really stating a reason to call Aldus scum.

VOTE: Tajun

[Majiffy]

I'm not a wolf.

[ProHawk]

That completely fucks up my wolf reads though, so I'll have to go through that again. Fun times.

This sounds a lot like, "Now who am I going to push being a wolf now? "

VOTE: HD

Majiffy, still want to lynch Rob?

[Majiffy]

I don't particularly care what order we do 'em in.

VOTE: HD

[Human Destroyer]

Because having one of your wolf suspects flip town and the other claim mafia totally wouldn't mess with your werewolf reads.

I like how you literally didn't read my whole big associative tell case on Tajun and just went "LOLNOPE HD IS SCUM" though

How about you read and try again

[Human Destroyer]

P-Edit: Was a response to ProHawk but it applies to both of yous

[Majiffy]

Well given that Tajun is one of my town reads, why would I bother reading your "case" for why my townread is scum, particularly since you're a scum read?

[Human Destroyer]

Because a) I'm not scum and b) you haven't taken into account that your Tajun townread might be wrong.

[ProHawk]

O no, I read it. I just find it ironic the man who led the crusade to save Aldus is comparing others' actions as if they hold more weight than your own.

Post #421 kinda turned me on... but Post #690 pretty much turned me off. Why say your wolf buddy would flip Mafia and not likely wolf? Just seems like you would be calling attention to yourself with that.