In post 1642, 4nxi3ty wrote:In post 1640, Tajun wrote:
2) Rob lynch eliminates one mislynch, giving us only one shot at the wolf. Non-Rob lynch gives us two shots.
It is way,waybetter for the wolf if we lynch Rob today. Seriously, I don't see how you don't get this. It is far better for the maf if we don't, but you know who else it is better for? The town, genius. We gettwoshots to kill the wolf instead of one, and Rob dies regardless. And I have eliminated two suspects from the likely maf pool, which has been far more effective than any straws you have been grabbing at.
I already understand that side of the argument.
With a rob nk you are only eliminating a single suspect since we already know rob is scum, which is the same as a rob lynch just in reverse.
You are arguing that two shots at lynching the wolf is the best move. I am arguing that the two shots is negligible when there is significant uncertainty in the majority about who is wolf. I like the idea of getting one more night of night-kill-analysis to figure things out with the added benefit of the mafia potentially being wiped out, which isn't possible with a non-rob lynch. (tbh neither strategy is game breaking)
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Tajun, how do you go from saying 'hd wolf, ph/anx most likely mafia' to 'hd wolf, ph town, anx could be wolf'? I am just not following that thought process very well.
Two shots is negligible in comparison to one? WTF is this? That's like double, unless my math is wrong. And you are dead wrong about the mafia being wiped out being impossible without a Rob lynch, if we hit maf number two there is still a good chance Rob will die. The only way I could see you making THAT particular mistake is if you are confident that the second maf isn't being lynched today, which would only be possible if you knew who it was (hint for all: Only one way that would happen). But no, a Rob lynch is literally the worst possible option for today. The fact that you are calling me scummy for explaining this one using logic is the sketchiest thing I have seen from you all game.
PH I'm not positive is town, but if he isn't we're uberfucked anyway, as he is the only person left in town with a brain working properly. You I think are a far better candidate for maf all told, but if HD isn't a wolf you'd be my best second guess. Don't think that's likely though.
It amuses me that HD missed the "hope" portion of my post, which was clearly the point, and implied that I was scummy because of it. The rest of his accusations are based on a fundamental misunderstanding of how scum play the game. Less amusing.
In post 1676, 4nxi3ty wrote:
Tajun was very confident about HD being mafia before today:
Tajun wrote:HD: Pretty well certain that he is maf. See post 975, and note that since being called out as such he has done nothing but prod-dodge. Avoiding outing his partner? Oh yeah.
Yet today he turns around and says HD is unlikely to be mafia, all for the convenience of a wolf push.
True, but it becomes far less likely considering Rob's play, for reasons I have explained. If I wanted a clear wolf push, I would have sheeped/pre-empted Prohawk's case on you, but I would rather actually lynch the wolf than target at random and hope for the best.
