Mini Normal 1460 - Normalville Mafia (GAME OVER)

[Slandaar]

Its probably better not to vig anyone; Use the track.

[Grimgroove]

But that's not verifiable. Aside from scum, there's, according to recent specualtions about the set-up, only one other PR town-person who might be visitng someone in the coming night.
If Elyse ends up with a VT, it might as well being her guessing that someone is a VT not going anywhere, with really great odds.
If Elyse ends up with scum, scum will deny it.

Elyse, what vig-pool do you have in mind?

[Grimgroove]

No wait, don't answer that yet.

[Slandaar]

The reason it is not worth vigging is because the vig targets are obvious - literally everyone in this game has the same scum suspects (from a pool of 4ish). In fact I will name them; Ztife, PV, RD, Cher.

Right? Everyone agrees with that I assume.

Which means they will probably be lynched anyways, thereby you really gain nothing by vigging them instead of lynching while tracking can just plain find scum with some luck (huge gain)

Basically because we only get one vig shot and that vig shot puts town to even numbers you don't gain a kill by vigging, you just lose information regarding wagons and interactions (applies to whatever the target flips)

The only benefit to vigging is it confirms Elyse, but, we have already decided she is town so there isn't a need for that.

[Grimgroove]

What's wrong with vigging scum AND confirming Elyse as town in the process though? With a vig action you have more chances of catching scum, because even the ones that don't perform the kill can be caught this way.

I, for one, am not completely convinced Elyse is town, and though she naturally gets the benefit of the little doubt I have, if I'd end up in a LyLo with her not having proven her ability in some way, she would definitely still be a scum-candidate in my book.

I agree with your pool of 4ish That's actually quite reassuring.

[Slandaar]

The point is that the scum she would vig would in fact have been lynched near enough guaranteed, but with a lynch we can look at interactions and look at wagon analysis etc also.

And we are not gaining a kill with the vig shot, it is either A lynch or a vig shot we literally lose a lynch for the vig shot due to the numbers being evened by the shot.

Of course likely what will happen is scum roleblock Elyse, scum kill Elyse, so it doesn't matter too much, still, track seems a ton better.

[Grimgroove]

Sounds like a good plan to me.

Going to hop back on the Red Dragon-wagon. Things need to get movin' with respects to lynching some guy, preferably scum.

VOTE: Red Dragon

This is

L-1

(not using the purple this time, sorry mod, completely forgot about that that one time :p)

[Slandaar]

UNVOTE: RD

I want to hear from certain people, one of which is PV.

[Baezu]

I agree with the pool of 4. I also think that the vig shot should prob be used later. If Elyse and I are still around n3 mafia will only be able to block one of us and we may actually get some useful information. Until then maybe we get lucky and lynch the rb.

[Ztife]

Fine. I'm a miller JOAT.
I have one track, one protection, and one vig shot.

Why would you claim at L-2?

Answer this please.

Discussing her actions is pointless since we know there is an RB. There is no way of finding out if elyze is speaking the truth.

If elyze and baezu are both speaking the truth, and mafia RB works (no x-shot or whatever), elyze will get RBed and baezu NKed.
If there's no RB, im pretty sure elyze will get NKed tonight, and baezu tomorrow.

If elyze is scum she will just play along with the first scenario.
Only other possibility that this might work out is if the RB is town and he RB baezu last night, which I'm dismissing as unlikely.

Your intent of claiming is important. Please elaborate.

[Red Dragon]

Red Dragon, what are your current townreads and scumreads?

I find grim and elyse to be town right now. Slandar is a tricky bastard that could go either way, so I would keep an eye on him. I still don't like how you waffle around so much. Zitfe could also be scum, but that is mostly gut... he seems to just lurk around.

[SunnyDays]

Sorry guys, my job and out of office work are so incredibly piled up right now I'm just completely overwhelmed I know I've missed the entirety of the day, but I'll try my ABSOLUTE best to be on tonight

[Slandaar]

Note; most of this isn't actually worth reading, the initial part is where I got my data from.

Future (6) - grimgroove, chernobylcitybus, BP, Baezu, Nachomamma8, Slandaar (L-1)

PV

BP (3) - Red Dragon, Ztife, Darthe
Baezu (2) - Future, thegooner
thegooner (2) - Elyse, PeregrineV

BP got off and PV got on soon after. Hence I have put PV on the end of the wagon.

Future: Grim/Cher/BP/Baezu/Nacho/Sland/PV

thegooner (5) - Elyse, Slandaar, grimgroove, Baezu, PeregrineV (L-2)

Baezu (2) - thegooner, chernobylcitybus
BP (1) - Ztife
Darthe (1)- SunnyDays
SunnyDays (1) - RedDragon
Elyse (1) - nachomamma8
RedDragon (1) - Darthe

Not Voting (1) - BP

Gooner: Elyse/Sland/Grim/Baezu/PV

Nachomamma8 (5) - grimgroove, Baezu, Nachopappa, Red Dragon, PeregrineV (L-2)

Red Dragon (3) - Darthe, Elyse, chernobylcitybus
Nachopappa (1) - Slandaar
BP (1) - Ztife
Darthe (1)- SunnyDays
Elyse (1) - Nachomamma8

Not Voting (1) - BP

Nacho: Grim/Baezu/Nacho/RD/PV

Elyse (4) - Baezu, Slandaar, SunnyDays, grimgroove
(L-3)

Nachomamma8 (3) - Red Dragon, PeregrineV, Ztife

Baezu (4) - Nachomamma8, Elyse, Nachopappa, Darthe (L-4)

Red Dragon (1) - chernobylcitybus

Not Voting (1) - BP

Elyse: Baezu/Sland/Sunny/Grim
Baezu: Nacho/Elyse/NachoP/Darthe

Baezu (5) - Nachomamma8, Elyse, Darthe, Ztife, chernobylcitybus (L-2)
Darthe (5) - Miss Stranger, grimgroove, Baezu, Nachopappa, SunnyDays (L-2)

Nachomamma8 (1) - Red Dragon
Elyse (1) - Slandaar

Baezu: Nacho/Elyse/Darthe/Ztife/Cher
Darthe: Stranger/Grim/Baezu/NachoP/Sunny

Darthe (7) - Miss Stranger, grimgroove, Baezu, Nachopappa, SunnyDays, chernobylcitybus, PeregrineV (LYNCH!)

Darthe: Stranger/Grim/Baezu/NachoP/Sunny/Cher/PV


----------------------------------------------

Analysis Part.

Biggest Wagons were...

Future: Grim/Cher/BP/Baezu/

Nacho

/Sland/PV
Gooner: Elyse/Sland/Grim/Baezu/PV

Nacho

: Grim/Baezu/NachoP/RD/PV

Darthe

: Stranger/Grim/Baezu/NachoP/Sunny/Cher/PV

---
Competing Wagons #1

Elyse: Baezu/Sland/Sunny/Grim
Baezu:

Nacho

/Elyse/NachoP/

Darthe

---
Competing Wagons #2

Baezu:

Nacho

/Elyse/

Darthe

/Ztife/Cher

Darthe

: Stranger/Grim/Baezu/NachoP/Sunny

OK so Facts First

PV has been involved on all the major wagons, LATE.

Future
Gooner
Nacho and Darthe who were both town.

Now, Future is obviously Sunny and Gooner is NachoP both of whom seem town to me.

A Theory;
There have been a lot of wagons, the chance of scum starting all these wagons is low, maybe the odd one, but mostly they will be started by town... so, first 3 slots on each major wagon (4+) lets see who comes up often (coming up often = town)

Grim x4
Cher
BP
Elyse x2
Sland x2
Baezu x3
NachoP x2
Stranger
Sunny

Yep, I like this list a lot note: Stranger/BP are different people hence are seperate for this (debate it all you want its my analysis). Have I discovered anything mindblowing? No. But what it shows is a good townlist

Grim/Elyse/Sland/Baezu/NachoP

Continuing on lets see who shows up in the slots past the first 3.

Baezu x2
Sland
PV x4
RD
NachoP
Sunny
Cher x2
Grim
Ztife

Baezu has been on lots early so being on them late isn't that much of an issue. PV needs lynching which was very aparent as soon as I saw his name on all 4. Cher looks a little worse but I don't know exactly how much weight to put into that.

I have been assuming every wagon was on town. Sunny/NachoP/Elyse/Baezu all seem town and then Darthe/Nacho are confirmed. I don't think too much changes if I am wrong regarding this, there have been so many big wagons this means scum are happily jumping on wagons (see the variation in names? its different a lot of the time) the biggest culprit being PV

Turns out this analysis was a case on PV.

Worth noting; if anyone wants to suggest I have this wrong, its not good to assume scum are not starting many wagons then think about this; if scum are starting even 50% of the wagons then it means they are making well reasoned logical cases on Town and the town are sheeping them around. No I don't think this is what is happening either and if it is well town is pretty screwed.

This is a lot to read so a

Summary

for people who don't want to read what isn't too interesting or useful;

Future: Grim/Cher/BP/Baezu/Nacho/Sland/

PV

Gooner: Elyse/Sland/Grim/Baezu/

PV

Nacho: Grim/Baezu/NachoP/RD/

PV

Darthe: Stranger/Grim/Baezu/NachoP/Sunny/Cher/

PV

Cher looks a little more suspect also.

Honestly mostly what this has done is reinforced certain ideas for example Elyse especially looks town for it.

I would be happy lynching PV today insted of RD.

[Baezu]

Your case has also shown the ztife has not been involved very much in the voting. Not sure what that means but just pointing it out. I'd be willing to change my vote since PV was originally who I suspected to be scum and hence wanted to investigate him. Also the case that grim made on ztife is very convincing. My top two scum reads right now are PV and ztife.

you know what? RD can wait. We need to lynch scum and lynch scum now! I'm putting my vote with what my gut has been telling me all along. ..

VOTE: PeregrineV

[ac1983fan]

Vote Count:

RedDragon (3) - chernobylcitybus, Nachopappa, Grimgroove (L-3)

Baezu (1) - Elyse
PeregrineV (1) - Baezu

Not Voting (6) - PeregrineV, Ztife, Red Dragon, Miss Stranger, SunnyDays, Slandaar

With 11 players alive it takes 6 votes to lynch or no lynch. Deadline is in (expired on 2013-07-22 09:00:00).

Miss Stranger is V/LA until 7/13.

chernobylcitybus is due her third prod. She will be replaced in accordance with the rules on activity.

[Miss Stranger]

Hi there, I'm back. Catching up in progress!

[Miss Stranger]

Elyse (0)

Elyse (

+1

)

I believe Elyse's claim. It's a good idea to breadcrumb miller role, because there's a good chance it's miller for a reason - miller without cop in closed setup is pretty pointless. That said, although it can't be verified, mafia never gets vig shot, right?

Between shot and track, I'd say both are equally pointless right now. First, it's almost certainly going to be roleblocked. Second, as Slandaar said vig shot will stifle discussion, even if it hits scum. Track on the other hand AFAIK only works on the scum that is sent to perform the kill, others are staying at home, so the chance it catches someone are pretty small (although it'd be awesome if it does catch a scum).

@PeregrineV:

You're being awfully AFK and quiet for someone who's at L-1.

I intend to hammer

. Please claim and provide your reads on everybody.

Red Dragon (0)

Red Dragon (

-2

)

I really, really dislike your latest posts. Post 872 is painfully bad. A townie is a confirmed townie to themselves, what is this "reasonable conclusion" and "yeah, I've been pretty scummy"? If 873 are all your reads, then it looks like you don't even care about the game that much anymore. It really looks like you're just scum giving up.

[Miss Stranger]

@Ztife:

Oh, look, more IIoA and speculation, Ztife style. Can we get some actual reads and analysis from you?

[Miss Stranger]

@Mod: Please correct "873" in my post 891 to "885", I gave the wrong link.

[Slandaar]

PV/Ztife/Sunny need to post.

[Grimgroove]

Miss Stranger, Peregrine is nowhere near L-1 , but that intent to hammer did sound very dramatic. Props for that!

[Miss Stranger]

Shut uuuuup, you ruined it

[Grimgroove]

If that was a reaction test, there's a vote count just two posts before yours, so I doubt he would have fallen for that.
Sorry anyway :p

[Elyse]

@Mod

V/LA until Wednesday the 17th

[Nachopappa]

Wow, Slandaar's analysis and conclusion about PV's voting history is compelling.

Miss Stranger is pretty methodical in her spreadsheet-format paragraphs about reads. Leaning town in her big wall posts.

Peregrine, you're not V/LA anymore. Please catch up soon.