Newbie 1449: Return of the Van [Game Over!]

[hayatoBL]

@Tris

426
Why am I suddenly the primary suspect if NS flips town?
And you’re right about the halo-effect.

@ffreyllt
Because scum-WBO has no reason to shift to TNE’s wagon. Was there any indication that TNE might be a PR? I don’t think so. Could WBO have foresaw ZF’s quickhammer? No. Would he get town points by making that change? I don’t see any.

@Grim

438
Sorry. I thought, it becomes easier, when I number it. I’ll change my way of posting next time.

442

I don't really consider this an argument. You attribute fear to it, and then turn the fear into something scummy.
Having an opinion that is subject to change, doesn't mean the opinion WILL change. A twig can be subject to breaking, but if the circumstances are right, it can remain rooted in the ground and turn into a tree.

Well, I can’t say much if you disagree that it’s fear she's showing. But fear IS a scum-read, isn’t it?

Inconsistency is also a petpeeve of mine, but his first post pointed out three possibilities. The problem does come with the second, but where you see someone trying to get a halo-effect, I see a newbie eager to show she's got good reads. I don't really see anything scummy behind saying she was thinking TheNewEarth as town. What is consistent and what is far more important, is the fact she didn't vote for TheNewEarth, pointing to her deciding that option number 1 of her post 267 must have been the most probable in her opinion.

There’s always a different perspective to look at things, I guess. But it doesn’t mean my way of looking at this is wrong. You’re putting forth alternate theories, but it doesn’t prove that mine is wrong nor is it less likely to be true.

Trisiana already answered this herself adequately I think. I don't think the point you brought up is bad, but it's not convincing either.

Basically she’s voting for lurkers and when they start being active again, she unvotes. And that IMO ISN’T an adequate answer. Ref: Post 289.

[fferyllt]

@ffreyllt Because scum-WBO has no reason to shift to TNE’s wagon. Was there any indication that TNE might be a PR? I don’t think so. Could WBO have foresaw ZF’s quickhammer? No. Would he get town points by making that change? I don’t see any.

bolstering the town wagon with more legs does make sense from a scum perspective. There is always the chance that when wagons sit idle for a while that they'll sort of spontaneously weaken as something else catches town players' eyes. And the something else could be a scum player.

I missed out on the sense of pacing that comes from being in a game from the starts, so I don't know if the wagon movements started to feel stale and ready for change.

[WBOCampfire1104]

Nobody Special is at L-1. If everyone can convince me to lynch, I will. I just don't see a Grimgroove/NS team. GIF (who would have done NK) would not have picked zipperflesh. All of the pieces for Grimgroove fit so well, it's hard to unvote. If NS is scum, I'll turn into a silent wagoner (not TNE/zip/NS, though). If the NK option has drastically changed, it will rewrite my theory.

[Grimgroove]

All of the pieces for Grimgroove fit so well, it's hard to unvote

They don't fit well. What you have done is put two pieces of the puzzle together and bashed on them to make them fit. But at the end of the day you'll end up with a puzzle that doesn't make sense, no matter how much bashing you get done.
You are not a patient person.

[Untrod Tripod]

I'm extending the deadline for another week due to holiday mess.

[WBOCampfire1104]

^Yeah, I'm lacking in patience. But the pieces fit for you and tcgw; you random vote people; get ithers on ypur side. If you fail try another. TCGW's constant nervousity is because of scuminess; you said you had nothing to do with zipperflesh's night kill. You probably would have lynched Trisiana. But with his replacement I want to extend the day to let him in. If anybody (not Grimgroove) wants me to lynch NS after tcgw gets replaced, ok.

[Grimgroove]

I don't really consider this an argument. You attribute fear to it, and then turn the fear into something scummy.
Having an opinion that is subject to change, doesn't mean the opinion WILL change. A twig can be subject to breaking, but if the circumstances are right, it can remain rooted in the ground and turn into a tree.

Well, I can’t say much if you disagree that it’s fear she's showing. But fear IS a scum-read, isn’t it?

Not necessarily. Town don't want to get lynched either, and some people have a tendency to get nervous about it. It reminds of when I was a kid in class, and the teacher heared someone talking. She turned around, and was looking at faces in class to find out who it was. The pressure of this alone made me blush. She pinpointed me as the culprit.
Only problem: I hadn't been the one talking.

Luckily for me blushing is out of the equation in the e-based game .

Anyway, point of this story: basic emotions like fear and emberassment could be sign of dark secrets, but not necessarily. It could also be fear of someone possibly thinking you have such intentions.

And all that said, you're right, I don't see any fear whatsoever in Trisiana's posts, not even the early ones.

Inconsistency is also a petpeeve of mine, but his first post pointed out three possibilities. The problem does come with the second, but where you see someone trying to get a halo-effect, I see a newbie eager to show she's got good reads. I don't really see anything scummy behind saying she was thinking TheNewEarth as town. What is consistent and what is far more important, is the fact she didn't vote for TheNewEarth, pointing to her deciding that option number 1 of her post 267 must have been the most probable in her opinion.

There’s always a different perspective to look at things, I guess. But it doesn’t mean my way of looking at this is wrong. You’re putting forth alternate theories, but it doesn’t prove that mine is wrong nor is it less likely to be true.

Maybe, but the point is that they are

theories

, as opposed to

arguments

. Your theory is a possibility, but when looking at the arguments, based on objective facts such as Trisiana's non-voting on TNE during Day 1, you'll see it doesn't point to your theory being correct (or relevant, because even if you'd prove the halo-argument to be correct, it's very similar to your fear-argument in that it's rather null alignment-wise). While it still can be correct, I don't see much reason right now to think it is.

WBO is making the same mistakes when making his case on me. He sets out from a theory but doesn't provide the arguments to back it up. If he wants to be listened to, he needs to change that approach.

Trisiana already answered this herself adequately I think. I don't think the point you brought up is bad, but it's not convincing either.

Basically she’s voting for lurkers and when they start being active again, she unvotes. And that IMO ISN’T an adequate answer. Ref: Post 289.

I think her post 289 explains it all perfectly. I now can make more sense of your 301 as a reply to that, but the only thing added there is a discussion about the importance of putting a vote down. I am on Trisiana's side on that matter.

Take a look at fferyllt for example. She's known to wait a very long time before placing a vote. She posted 48 times without voting, before putting her vote on NS very recently.
Why was this not a problem for you? Why did you not interpret that as fferyllt not wanting to make enemies?

[Trisania]

@hayato:
Because, as I said, you're also my scum-read. If my primary scum-read, NS, proves to be town, then you're next in line.

And I'm not "basically" voting for lurkers. I voted Cervantes for that, true, but I unvoted him to give fferyllt a chance to post. And my vote on NS was mostly because I feel his posts are insufficient and too safe to be town.

[hayatoBL]

@ffreyllt
WBO-scum trying to bolster the town wagon? Could be. But I just think it’s too risky.

@WBO
Instead of asking people to convince you to push NS’ wagon, why not convince others to push Grim’s?

@Grim

Not necessarily. Town don't want to get lynched either, and some people have a tendency to get nervous about it. It reminds of when I was a kid in class, and the teacher heared someone talking. She turned around, and was looking at faces in class to find out who it was. The pressure of this alone made me blush. She pinpointed me as the culprit.
Only problem: I hadn't been the one talking.

Luckily for me blushing is out of the equation in the e-based game .

Anyway, point of this story: basic emotions like fear and emberassment could be sign of dark secrets, but not necessarily. It could also be fear of someone possibly thinking you have such intentions.

And all that said, you're right, I don't see any fear whatsoever in Trisiana's posts, not even the early ones.

Ok. I think we’ve reached a stalemate here.

Maybe, but the point is that they are theories, as opposed to arguments. Your theory is a possibility, but when looking at the arguments, based on objective facts such as Trisiana's non-voting on TNE during Day 1, you'll see it doesn't point to your theory being correct (or relevant, because even if you'd prove the halo-argument to be correct, it's very similar to your fear-argument in that it's rather null alignment-wise). While it still can be correct, I don't see much reason right now to think it is.

If Tris DID voted for TNE, then I wouldn’t have this theory in the first place.

Take a look at fferyllt for example. She's known to wait a very long time before placing a vote. She posted 48 times without voting, before putting her vote on NS very recently.
Why was this not a problem for you? Why did you not interpret that as fferyllt not wanting to make enemies?

I didn’t know that fferyllt is known to wait a very long time before placing a vote. I just don’t see how an experienced player could make an ‘afraid of making enemies’ mistake. I see that as an ‘only a newbie mistake’. And comparing to the other two brand newbies (WBO and TCGW), Tris is the least aggressive, which reminds me of my first game as scum recently.

[Nobody Special]

Today, I am thankful for the deadline extension that allows me to spend more time this weekend on my WBO case.

I am also thankful for lots of food.

See you tomorrow!

[Trisania]

I didn’t know that fferyllt is known to wait a very long time before placing a vote. I just don’t see how an experienced player could make an ‘afraid of making enemies’ mistake. I see that as an ‘only a newbie mistake’. And comparing to the other two brand newbies (WBO and TCGW),

Tris is the least aggressive, which reminds me of my first game as scum recently.

Just because I seem to be acting the way you did as scum in another game, doesn't mean I am scum. We're two different people; the way I react to a situation is obviously different from you. Aggression isn't my thing. I'm lazy. I believe I said that before. But I take time to address concerns directed at me to clear things up. I'd go after you based purely on gut feel if my gut says you're scum, but that's not enough to put pressure on a person since their own incriminating posts are more effective at that.

[fferyllt]

Take a look at fferyllt for example. She's known to wait a very long time before placing a vote. She posted 48 times without voting, before putting her vote on NS very recently.
Why was this not a problem for you? Why did you not interpret that as fferyllt not wanting to make enemies?

I didn’t know that fferyllt is known to wait a very long time before placing a vote. I just don’t see how an experienced player could make an ‘afraid of making enemies’ mistake. I see that as an ‘only a newbie mistake’. And comparing to the other two brand newbies (WBO and TCGW), Tris is the least aggressive, which reminds me of my first game as scum recently.

I have about 50 completed games at MS. In the majority of those games I didn't put votes down quickly, but I have put down non-RVS votes as early as page 1 or 2 in a few games. I vote when I'm ready to vote, and I vote for someone I want to see lynched. Until both of those conditions are met, I don't vote.

[WBOCampfire1104]

@Grimgroove:
I've noticed your reactions to my cases: all you say is, oh, that's a stupid case, so I'll ignore it. You have to stride to see things from other people's points of view. If it still looks dumb (hayato's old case, in some ways) then it probably is. You've made no evident effort so far.
@Nobody Special:
You shouldn't be voting for me. Not because I'm claiming town, but your organization. You've said "I'm putting my case together." It's been 4 days. A scum worth voting for will have most of his evidence on a platter in front of you, with a little more stregnthening coming along later. It took me 30 minutes to assemble GG's case, including writing. It's taken you, again, 4 days. Also, your scumlist, me and tcgw, has become the common "noobs" in this game, as all other noob slots are replaced. Coincedence? I think not.

[Grimgroove]

It took me 30 minutes to assemble GG's case

I'm surprised it took you more than 5.

[WBOCampfire1104]

-SIGNATURE TEST-
Grimgroove is a retard.
-SIGNATURE TEST OVER-

[hayatoBL]

@Grim

401

What are examples of scummy intentions? And I dislike the fact that you’re saying you can’t present them in bullet points. Try to present them to the best of your abilities.

Tris seems to understand your soft-claim method on that other game and because of it concluded that you were not fake-PRcrumbing. Ref : 277. Yet you’re only suspicious towards me and gave that buddy-test to only me. Why suspect only me of trying to buddy you, but not Tris?

@Tris
You said TNE was town because of his ‘don’t care attitude’. Isn't NS also showing a ‘don’t care attitude’? If he did, why are you treating him differently?

@ffreyllt

I have about 50 completed games at MS. In the majority of those games I didn't put votes down quickly, but I have put down non-RVS votes as early as page 1 or 2 in a few games. I vote when I'm ready to vote, and I vote for someone I want to see lynched. Until both of those conditions are met, I don't vote.

‘Someone you want to see lynched’. Not someone who you think is the most scummy?

@NS

Don’t forget to claim. If it’s a VT. I’m definitely hammering.

[fferyllt]

‘Someone you want to see lynched’. Not someone who you think is the most scummy?

The way I phrased it is accurate regardless of my alignment in any particular game.

When I'm town, those are equivalent statements. When I'm scum, I look for town players who should be lynchable. When I'm 3rd party, I do what furthers my win condition, whatever that may be, but have a predisposition to favor town if I can.

[hayatoBL]

^I smiled when I read that. That was more of a question on theory than scum-hunting tbh. I was wondering, perhaps there are other reasons to lynch somebody as town.

[fferyllt]

^I smiled when I read that. That was more of a question on theory than scum-hunting tbh. I was wondering, perhaps there are other reasons to lynch somebody as town.

Information lynches are a thing, but not a thing I care for. When I can't get my strongest scum read lynched, then I compromise. Usually at the 11th hour. There are a few games lying around where I posted a compromise vote within three minutes of nightfall.

[hayatoBL]

Last theoretical question, Isn't deciding on a compromise lynch that late in the game, may lead to lynching an unclaimed PR?

[fferyllt]

Last theoretical question, Isn't deciding on a compromise lynch that late in the game, may lead to lynching an unclaimed PR?

It can. It sometimes does.

But, hammering with 3 minutes to nightfall, the player really should have claimed whether intent to hammer has been expressed or not. Almost always, the information from the lynch, flip and bandwagon analysis trumps the concern about mislynching a PR.

[Trisania]

Tris seems to understand your soft-claim method on that other game

and because of it concluded that you were not fake-PRcrumbing. Ref : 277. Yet you’re only suspicious towards me and gave that buddy-test to only me. Why suspect only me of trying to buddy you, but not Tris?

I didn't say anything of that sort. Grim said he soft-claimed in that game, and I checked it with that thought in mind. Even if I knew he soft-claimed, I couldn't tell from his posts.

@Tris
You said TNE was town because of his ‘don’t care attitude’. Isn't NS also showing a ‘don’t care attitude’? If he did, why are you treating him differently?

NS was ignoring his L-1, unlike TNE who acknowledged it but expressly claimed he didn't give a fuck. NS isn't even worried he's about to be lynched. That in itself is suspicious. I can't explain it rationally, but it smells scum. He's not in a hurry to claim or lay down his case against WBO, either.

[WBOCampfire1104]

Heya, how do you get signatures? I went under signatures and tried to get one, but it didn't show up. So whazza happening there?

[Trisania]

^Board settings > display signature

[Trisania]

^Let me correct that:

User Control Panel > Board preferences tab > Edit posting defaults > Attach my signature by default: Yes